by Al Bracco | October 9th, 2009
Since this is a bye week, I decided to go slowly, dig deep and hopefully bring you some in-depth insight on a few things I have noticed. Therefore, I will be breaking my film study into a series of articles over the next week.
Aaron Rodgers:
As I sat down to re-watch the Packers – Vikings game, remote control in hand, I wondered about one thing; Is Aaron Rodgers as good a quarterback as I think he is? The answer, for the most part is YES. The part that still needs improvement may only come with time, but it’s definitely missing right now. Aaron Rodgers does not feel the pressure if it’s not right in front of him. Then, when the pressure is upon him, in that fateful moment of truth, Rodgers is not yet making the right decision. Yes, there are times when taking a sack is the best thing to do. But that wasn’t often the case in the Vikings game.
I studied every one of his sacks, over and over again. On five of them, Rodgers had every opportunity to either throw the ball away or look for a safety valve. In each case, he kept looking down the field, hoping against hope and holding on to the ball too damn long. It’s nothing more than bad decision-making in that critical moment.
The two best examples are these:
The Fumble:
After moving the Packers down the field nicely on their first possession, the Packers have a first and ten on the Minnesota 24 yard line. Rodgers, takes a quick 3-step drop, looks downfield and doesn’t like what he sees. Right in front of him is his safety valve. Ryan Grant has run about 5 yards past the line of scrimmage and is all alone – closest Viking player is 7 yards away and backpedaling in the opposite direction. Rodgers gets pressure from the right and all he has to do is just toss it to Grant for an easy and safe completion and probably a 7-10 yard gain.Instead, he freezes with the ball, and tries to navigate out of the pocket – which is pretty impossible to do on a 3-step drop when everything is closing in around you. He runs right into the path of Jared Allen, who gets the sack and strips the ball, causing the fumble.
The Safety:
There were roughly 7 minutes left in the game with the Packers looking at 3rd and 10 on their own 1yard line. Rodgers in the shotgun in the end zone with Grant to his left. Ball is snapped. Grant helps T.J. Lang with Allen. Rodgers has a nice pocket to step up into, which he does. When Allen gets pushed deep, he stops on a dime and reverses his direction, leaving both Grant and Lang looking at the back of his jersey. In the meantime, Donald Lee, who had lined up in the backfield, ran a quick turn turn-around. He is available for a quick dump off. Sure, it wouldn’t have been a first down, but it would have been better than a safety. Instead, Rodgers is looking deep. He shifts his weight back, winds up and starts to let one fly. For some reason, he stops his throw. A split-second later, Allen is on top of him and the Vikings have a safety. Why would Rodgers change his mind there at the very last second? Heave it as far as you can. Not much to lose. An interception down the field would be like a punt. But he doesn’t feel Allen behind him, doesn’t see Lee in front of him, hopes he’ll have time for a better option, and gets sacked.
Brett Favre:
In both of those situations, Rodgers had an easy dump-off to avoid the sack, but chose to keep looking down field. Contrast those with a play that Brett Favre made to neutralize the Packers blitz. On a second and eleven, with about eight minutes left in the second quarter, the Packers run their all-too familiar crossover blitz with the two inside backers (Barnett and Chillar). Chillar finds a rare open lane and is coming through untouched. As soon as Favre saw what was happening, he didn’t hesitate, he immediately turned and threw to his safety valve, Adrian Peterson out in the flat. Peterson was stopped for no gain on the play, but there was no sack, no fumble, no interception.
This appears to be about the only thing Aaron Rodgers is lacking right now. He’s already led several drives down the field late in games this season, so that monkey is off his back. He looks to have all the tools, the confidence and the leadership qualities you will find in a premier quarterback. He just has to get over this final hump. If he does, I think he can be a top-5 QB in this league.
You’ll notice I haven’t discussed the offensive line. For those of you yelling at your screens that it’s the line’s fault, I say – somewhat. But that’s a separate article (hopefully in a few days). However, no matter how good a team’s offensive line is, a top-flight QB will have to face moments like these in a game. Rodgers has to learn to handle it and make the right decision – period. That’s how you become a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady.
------------------------Al Bracco is a Staff Op/Ed Writer for Wisconsin Sports Online and is also the Green Bay Packers Fan Voice on NFLTouchdown.com.
Visit Al’s blog, Jersey Al’s Packers Blog, for more interesting articles. You can also follow Jersey Al on twitter.
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Nice article. Love the analysis stuff.
And totally agree. Rodgers needs to use his outlets. That first example you pose I remember I was jumping up and down yelling for him to dump it off. Frustrating!
Thanks. I was conversing with my TV a lot that night.
I still don’t see how, even if Rodgers irons out his many problems, Rodgers is in the debate for top 5 QBs in the NFL. With Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning as arguably the top 4, no way does Aaron Rodgers go above McNabb, Rivers, Big Ben, or even a healthy Brett Favre. Going 6-10 last year and now playing like an average QB, it is baffling to see Mr. Bracco saying he’s possibly a top 5 quarterback in the NFL.
Read carefully – I said he “can” be. I didn’t say he was. I’m talking about the future.
Just for fun, though, I’ll take Rodgers over Manning, McNabb and Favre right now.
Eli Manning, of course…
I just don’t see how you can make the conclusion that he ‘can’ be a top 5 QB. What exactly about him makes you think that he COULD be up there with Peyton, Brady, Big Ben, and Drew Brees?
I thought your article was fair and well written, but considering all the points you’ve brought up regarding Rodgers, how is your conclusion to the article that he could be in the top five? It seems very contradictory.
Thanks for the comments William. I guess you’re seeing something different than I am. My eyes tell me we have a QB that can rack up big numbers, despite being on a 6-10 team. My eyes tell me we have a QB that can now lead the team down the field in critical situations. My eyes tell me we have a QB that can be successful despite being unprotected by his OL and by an unbalanced offense.
Maybe I’m just wearing different glasses than you are, but to these eyes, it seems obvious.
It’s not contradictory, it’s just stating what he needs to fix in order to fully become a top 5 QB. Like he said he does have the confidence and leadership and also the skills but needs to improve in decision making when under pressure. I believe he is already a top 5 QB but not too many people see that because so many good QB’s are out there and the bad line he has. Maybe for Rodgers to become a top 5 QB he needs to go out with a celebrity and have the cameras on him all the time(Romo). Anyways the point is Rodgers is an elite QB and he proves it by not giving up and making all those yards and TD’s despite the line he has. He deserves a lot of credit.
I wouldn’t put him there yet, but I’d sneak him into the top ten, for sure…
Great article again!
Maybe we should AARON RODGERS win/loss record speak.
Great QB’s need to see the whole field, all the time, and read defenses in a split second. While Joe Montana had great rceivers, he was also able to throw to the “safety valve” when
a primary receiver was covered (or a pass rush was coming).
Getting sacked in the end-zone is terrible, it has happened twice now. Opposing teams have seen, they need to cover GREG JENNINGS to make AARON RODGERS go thru his reads, and he has made some game impacting mistakes…
But not with interceptions, which is VERY encouraging.
What puzzles me is that MM was able to reign in Favre, and get him to play “within the game”. Why can’t he do the same thing with Rodgers?
Favre had better protection and I don’t think Rodgers needs to be “reigned in”. It’s not like he’s careless with where he throws the ball.
“Maybe I’m just wearing different glasses than you are, but to these eyes, it seems obvious.”
I was referring to your comment that he ‘could’ be in the conversation for top 5 QBs in the NFL, not on his ability to play decent football despite problems in offense and defense. You say he ‘could’ be this and that, but I’m speaking strictly on how he’s played and it has been average. I know you’re a Packers fan, so you are wearing different glasses. I’m not a Cowboys fan by any stretch of the imagination, but Tony Romo’s played better and I’m sure you wouldn’t give him top 5 consideration, despite his unbalanced offense, weak defense and bad O-line.
First of all, you won’t find a more objective Packers fan. But I have no idea how you can say Rodgers has played average and point out Romo as someone who has played better. They BOTH are on a team with “unbalanced offense, weak defense and bad O-line”, as you put it. Now check out their stats:
Comp %” Romo 58.2%, Rodgers 60.6%
Yardage: Romo 1341, Rodgers 1098 (Romo has thrown 40 more passes)
Rushing uds: Romo 32yds on 10 attempts, Rodgers 104yds on 17 attempts
Interceptions: Romo 4, Rodgers 1
TDs: Romo 6, Rodgers 6
QB Rating: Romo 86.5, Rodgers 101.1
Right now, Rodgers is the 8th ranked QB in the League, Romo is 18th. You didn’t use a good example to try to prove your point, which I still believe is very erroneous:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2009/seasontype/2
Al,
I enjoy debating football with you. I appreciate a writer that keeps in touch with his readers, it really is commendable. The main problem is that I don’t think I can convince you one way or another that Aaron Rodgers will probably never be a top 5 QB in the NFL. That’s what my postings are have been about; not Tony Romo’s numbers this year, and not the numbers Rodgers has put up (The season isn’t even close to being halfway over, not sure why you put them up there.)
My point with Romo was not that he’s the better QB this season, but that he’s played better over his career. Thankfully, no one would ever consider him a top 5 QB, and for good reason. Also, what I wish I had stressed more in my last post was that they are almost exactly the same, average QB. Well, except for wins vs. losses, in which Romo has fared much better.
Career:
Romo: 62.7% Completion
Rodgers: 63% Completion
Romo: 93.8 Passer Rating
Rodgers: 93.4 Passer Rating
Very alike.
http://www.nfl.com/players/tonyromo/careerstats?id=ROM787981
http://www.nfl.com/players/aaronrodgers/careerstats?id=ROD339293
They’re both similar and average. Nowhere near top 5 material. The whole concept of anyone trying to divine what a QB could or might be is a slippery slope we should all avoid treading upon.
William,
I enjoy engaging readers – if they take the time to read my articles and comment, how could I not reciprocate? To that end, I have talked to a LOT of Green Bay fans about Aaron Rodgers, and I have to say, your opinion is by far the most negative I’ve heard. Now, I’m not criticizing you, I respect everyone’s opinion, if it’s sincere. And I do believe you are sincere about what you are saying.
Calling Rodgers average, however, is being unfairly negative, whatever your reason is. Maybe you can’t get over the whole Favre, thing? I know I talk to a lot of people that are very bitter about it. I don’t know what your story is, but I don’t see your argument at all. Plus, he’s only played 20 games so far – he will continue to improve.
I think Rodgers has the skills to develop into a top-5 QB, whereas I never thought that of Romo. Whether he does or not is another matter, but there’s nothing wrong with thinking what I think. I guess that’s the difference for me.
Just look at last year. over 4000 yds, 64% completion percentage, 25 TDs, only 13 INTs. That’s “average”?
Compared to the rest of the NFL QBs:
Only 3QBs threw for more yards.
Only 3QBs threw for more TDs and 2 of them had more INTs.
All this despite his team giving up the 5th most sacks in the NFL.
I think that’s shows more than enough early on to say he could develop into a top QB in the league. But if you disagree, then che sera, sera.