April 20, 2018, 04:01:24 AM

Author Topic: Is the 1st round coming into focus?  (Read 981 times)

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Offline RT

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Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« on: March 22, 2018, 10:30:21 AM »
It looks like Cleveland has settled on Sam Darnold as the 1st overall pick. The Browns owner went to the USC pro-day along with a good number of front office staff to watch Darnold workout. Haslam spent time himself with Darnold parents in the stands during the workout, later taking all to dinner. IMO it has the feel of an all but done deal.

The number two pick has been a bit puzzling to me up until this morning. The Giants GM David Gettleman has always been about building his teams through drafting players on the lines. Many draft analysts are onto that and have been projecting Quenton Nelson to the Giants, But I'm not buying that a guard is going number 2 overall. With the trade of JJP to Tampa Bay this morning thing seem much clearer that Bradley Chubb will be the number 2 pick overall.

It now makes more sense why the Jets traded into the 3rd spot like they did. They have been allover Josh Rosen for the last week, almost to the degree of interest that the Browns have shown Darnold.

The 4th pick overall may well be where the draft starts. A person I follow on twitter that seems to always have their finger on the pulse of the Browns said yesterday that the Browns dream first round is Darnold with the 1st pick and Chubb (not Barkley)with the 4th pick. But if the Giants take Chubb, this feels like a trade back pick to the Bills (Dolphins and Cardinals are outside chances also). IMO the likelihood of the Browns staying at 4 and making a selection if Chubb is gone is small.

Online OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2018, 12:32:26 PM »
The Packers pick at #14 this is who goes before them:

The best players will go early almost regardless of need, except QBs who are a seperate beast when it comes to where they go.
3 QBs WILL go in the top ten picks, no matter who picks them. It's possible four could go before the Packers pick.
RB Barkley and DE Chubb will certainly be gone.
Safeties Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick are 90% likely to both be gone.
G Nelson, LB Edmunds and CB Ward are 75% likely to be gone
DT Vea is about 65% likely gone
Davenport 50% gone.
If 3 QBs and the other players are gone, that adds up to 12 players.

Next are guys like WR Ridley, RB Guice, CB Jackson, Edge Vander Esch, ILB Roquan Smith, maybe DT Taven Bryan and OLB Harold Landry.  If the Packers were going for best available players, these are arguably the best out there.

There are other possibilities, candidates that may, or may not be a step lower. CBs Carlton Davis and Mike Hughes, and god knows which is the best OT between Brown, O'Neill, Williams, K.Miller.

I would imagine the first pick (if it stays at #14) will most likely be an edge rusher, CB or WR, all areas that need a starter-level player. Just possibly it could be an OT, but my guess is that they see how Spriggs and Bulaga pan out in 2018, before committing a top pick there.  That means Landry, Vander Esch, Ridley seem the most likely prospects if all the other guys are truly gone when the packers pick.

More interesting is that the Packers seem to be picking at the top of a tier of players - in other words there isn't much difference between picks 12 and 24. That suggests it would be a good tactic to trade back in round one (assuming a partner could be found). Unless an upper tier player drops to the Packers, there will not be a big difference in the value between #14 and a pick at (for example) pick #19 - but the trade value would allow an extra 3rd rounder at about pick #9 or #10 in that round. More and/or higher picks in rounds 2 and three should, in my opinion, be a goal of the Packers front office, and what was earned from a trade-back in round one plus later picks (like the comp 4th and 5ths) could be bundled for better picks in the key rounds 2-3. I think it will be difficult to find trade partners, but that is no reason not to look for them.
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Offline dannobanano

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2018, 02:05:38 PM »
So........................arguably the best player in the draft won't come off the board until ? (#5).

Elway would have a hard time passing up a chance to give Keenum a shiny new Ferrari (Barkley) in the backfield.

Some GM's have all the friggin luck.

But, (think about it) wouldn't it be a hoot if Denver passes on Barkley and INDY (who was pegged to take Barkley at #3) might still get him by trading down to #6!!?   hysterical

Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2018, 02:40:15 PM »
I think there will be at least 4 QB's taken before our pick and possibly 5. Then you've got Chubb, Barkley and Nelson, so we're about half-way to #14 just right there.

Unfortunately, I have a hard time mocking either Harold Landry or Derwin James to us unless we jump up to at least #11 (Miami). Both of them will probably go in the 9-13 range.

I'm not terribly interested in Davenport (project), Roquan (too small and not a position the Packers draft highly) and Ward (too short).

Offline Shinesman

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2018, 05:09:20 PM »
I think there will be at least 4 QB's taken before our pick and possibly 5. Then you've got Chubb, Barkley and Nelson, so we're about half-way to #14 just right there.

Unfortunately, I have a hard time mocking either Harold Landry or Derwin James to us unless we jump up to at least #11 (Miami). Both of them will probably go in the 9-13 range.

I'm not terribly interested in Davenport (project), Roquan (too small and not a position the Packers draft highly) and Ward (too short).

I posted the same sentiment in another thread. 4 maybe 5 QBs, Barkley, Nelson, Chubb. Then I think you will see James, Fitzpatrick, and maybe Ward gone prior to 14 as well. A lot of top ten talent could fall to us. I am hoping Edmunds makes it to us personally. Perhaps Be A would be a steal and bolster a big front line.
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Offline Divot

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2018, 06:07:02 PM »
Miami just traded for JPP.   Will they take an edge rusher now?   

Online OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2018, 02:05:48 AM »
I think there will be at least 4 QB's taken before our pick and possibly 5. Then you've got Chubb, Barkley and Nelson, so we're about half-way to #14 just right there.

Unfortunately, I have a hard time mocking either Harold Landry or Derwin James to us unless we jump up to at least #11 (Miami). Both of them will probably go in the 9-13 range.

I'm not terribly interested in Davenport (project), Roquan (too small and not a position the Packers draft highly) and Ward (too short).

I disagree with almost all of this. I think the chances of Landry being there at #14 are good (though Derwin is very likely gone).

Ward is 1/8" of an inch below the Packers height requirement at 5'10 7/8", so with his skills that isn't much of an issue (Goodson and Rollins are only 5'11").

As for Davenport being a project, so is every pass rusher this year. Landry needs more take-on strength, Key needs to learn how to bullrush, Davenport needs to learn to run the arc better, Vander Esch is raw (only one year starting), Hubbard is a DE, so OLB is a projection.

Even the claim at least 4 QBs go might not pan out. It just might be three.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 02:06:32 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

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Offline Hands

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2018, 08:03:56 AM »
Pass rusher or CBs are what we think are Packers focus in the first round. I think Green Bay is looking at an empty shelf when it's their turn. Edmunds /Davenport and Smith seem to be predetermined to Chicago, Oakland, and Miami. Ward early and Washington takes Vea or James.

So does Green Bay trade down? I will predict that if James/Ward/Fitzpatrick are gone as well leaving really one guy sitting there that has a first round grade and that's Evans the MLB from Alabama. Vea would be nice, but after Adams and Wilkerson seems redundant. Landry isn't rated as a player to take in the middle of the 1st round by most scouts. I know Green Bay has Martinez, yet Smith has also been linked to the Packers so my question is why not take a guy who's bigger and faster and can cover RBs and TEs as your first pick? Unless he has a medical problem or a character issue...he seems to be a likely pick.   
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Offline RT

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2018, 08:56:53 AM »
Pass rusher or CBs are what we think are Packers focus in the first round. I think Green Bay is looking at an empty shelf when it's their turn. Edmunds /Davenport and Smith seem to be predetermined to Chicago, Oakland, and Miami. Ward early and Washington takes Vea or James.

So does Green Bay trade down? I will predict that if James/Ward/Fitzpatrick are gone as well leaving really one guy sitting there that has a first round grade and that's Evans the MLB from Alabama. Vea would be nice, but after Adams and Wilkerson seems redundant. Landry isn't rated as a player to take in the middle of the 1st round by most scouts. I know Green Bay has Martinez, yet Smith has also been linked to the Packers so my question is why not take a guy who's bigger and faster and can cover RBs and TEs as your first pick? Unless he has a medical problem or a character issue...he seems to be a likely pick.

No disrespect meant towards you Hands, but you know what they say about doing the samething over and over and expecting a different result. Every year a chunk of the fanbase pound the table for a ILB and every year they are disappointed that it doesn't happen. IMO the packers don't value the position high enough to invest 1st round draft capital in the position. Add in that the Packers are in the best shape they have been in concerning the ILB position in probably 6 or more years. Martinez and Clark are the 2 building blocks they have on the defensive side of the ball, building depth behind them is part of this process, just don't think replacing them is. IMO   

« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 09:05:21 AM by RT »

Offline dannobanano

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2018, 04:07:10 PM »
I think there will be at least 4 QB's taken before our pick and possibly 5. Then you've got Chubb, Barkley and Nelson, so we're about half-way to #14 just right there.

Unfortunately, I have a hard time mocking either Harold Landry or Derwin James to us unless we jump up to at least #11 (Miami). Both of them will probably go in the 9-13 range.

I'm not terribly interested in Davenport (project), Roquan (too small and not a position the Packers draft highly) and Ward (too short).

I disagree with almost all of this. I think the chances of Landry being there at #14 are good (though Derwin is very likely gone).

Ward is 1/8" of an inch below the Packers height requirement at 5'10 7/8", so with his skills that isn't much of an issue (Goodson and Rollins are only 5'11").

As for Davenport being a project, so is every pass rusher this year. Landry needs more take-on strength, Key needs to learn how to bullrush, Davenport needs to learn to run the arc better, Vander Esch is raw (only one year starting), Hubbard is a DE, so OLB is a projection.
(Clay Matthews only started 10 games his entire college career........and those were his final 10 games at USC. Just say'in)

Even the claim at least 4 QBs go might not pan out. It just might be three.

Offline Shinesman

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2018, 08:49:07 PM »
Pass rusher or CBs are what we think are Packers focus in the first round. I think Green Bay is looking at an empty shelf when it's their turn. Edmunds /Davenport and Smith seem to be predetermined to Chicago, Oakland, and Miami. Ward early and Washington takes Vea or James.

So does Green Bay trade down? I will predict that if James/Ward/Fitzpatrick are gone as well leaving really one guy sitting there that has a first round grade and that's Evans the MLB from Alabama. Vea would be nice, but after Adams and Wilkerson seems redundant. Landry isn't rated as a player to take in the middle of the 1st round by most scouts. I know Green Bay has Martinez, yet Smith has also been linked to the Packers so my question is why not take a guy who's bigger and faster and can cover RBs and TEs as your first pick? Unless he has a medical problem or a character issue...he seems to be a likely pick.

No disrespect meant towards you Hands, but you know what they say about doing the samething over and over and expecting a different result. Every year a chunk of the fanbase pound the table for a ILB and every year they are disappointed that it doesn't happen. IMO the packers don't value the position high enough to invest 1st round draft capital in the position. Add in that the Packers are in the best shape they have been in concerning the ILB position in probably 6 or more years. Martinez and Clark are the 2 building blocks they have on the defensive side of the ball, building depth behind them is part of this process, just don't think replacing them is. IMO

Isn't that because TT didn't believe MLB was an actual position of importance? I think someone on here had said something about that. If that's true, he should have been psych evaluated awhile ago. I think the new GM is doing well aside from one or two things. I am waiting to see his draft and further judge where he will take the franchise.
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Offline RT

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2018, 08:01:16 AM »
With a month to the draft I think the top 12 have basically come together as a group (subject to change by the minute). Their will be some trading around by teams, but the players will remain the same. The first 12 drafted will be,

 1 - Sam Darnold/QB/USC

2 - Josh Allen/QB/Wyoming

3 - Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA

4 - Bradley Chubb/DL/North Carolina State

5 - Saquon Barkley/RB/Penn State

6 - Quenton Nelson/G/Notre Dame

7 - Minkah Fitzpatrick/DB/Alabama

8 - Denzel Ward/CB/Ohio State

9 - Tremaine Edmunds/LB/Virginia Tech

10 - Roquan Smith/LB/Georgia

11 - Baker Mayfield/QB/Oklahoma

12 - Derwin James/S/Florida State

That would put the Redskins on the clock at 13 and I have thought for awhile that their pick will either be Da'Ron Payne/DL/ Alabama or  Vita Vea/DL/Washington.

Which brings us to the Packers. In all likelihood their selection will come from one of these players unless the Packers were to trade from this pick (up or down).

Da'Ron Payne/DL/ Alabama
Vita Vea/DL/Washington
Harold Landry/EDGE/ Boston College
Marcus Davenport/EDGE/UTSA
Leighton Vander Esch/LB/Boise State
Josh Jackson/CB/Iowa
Mike McGlinchey/OT/Notre Dame
Calvin Ridley/WR/Alabama
Rashaan Evans/LB/Alabama   I added that one for you Hands  :)

As you can see the Packers are going to land a very good player in the first round this year and I would be happy with any of those additions. As some have pointed out here already and I think this exercise points it out, is that the Packers have the luxury of trading back 3 or 4 spots and still getting a player of similar value well adding more draft capital.     

« Last Edit: March 27, 2018, 08:06:41 AM by RT »

Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2018, 08:20:09 AM »

I disagree with almost all of this. I think the chances of Landry being there at #14 are good (though Derwin is very likely gone).

Ward is 1/8" of an inch below the Packers height requirement at 5'10 7/8", so with his skills that isn't much of an issue (Goodson and Rollins are only 5'11").

As for Davenport being a project, so is every pass rusher this year. Landry needs more take-on strength, Key needs to learn how to bullrush, Davenport needs to learn to run the arc better, Vander Esch is raw (only one year starting), Hubbard is a DE, so OLB is a projection.

Even the claim at least 4 QBs go might not pan out. It just might be three.

I've come around more on Davenport (read more on him and watched a little more. He's not as "raw" as some are touting.) and Ward (he is crazy gifted and could start off in the slot but eventually become a strong outside guy like Casey Hayward, I still think he LOOKS very small on the field.)

I still feel pretty confident that we'll see at least 4 QB's go before #14. (Darnold, Allen, Rosen and Mayfield/Jackson) There's always so much hype at that position. Heck, we may trade out of #14 if someone wants a QB desperately enough. (I hope not)

As badly as we all want a long term complement to Kevin King, I think we really should try for a pass rusher, Landry being my favorite.

Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2018, 08:30:05 AM »
BTW, Josh Jackson (CB - Iowa) supposedly ran in the mid 4.4's on Monday (3/26) at his Pro Day. That really has to help his stock!

Offline PackerJoe

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Re: Is the 1st round coming into focus?
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2018, 09:30:23 AM »
I'll take a different viewpoint, with twelve picks this year and whatever you want throw in from next year ( like a 3 rd'er), I'm movingly up for an elite defensive player.