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Author Topic: Top 4 QBs will be off the board  (Read 457 times)

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Offline Fargofootball

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Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« on: March 23, 2018, 01:06:34 PM »
With Buffalo moving up to 12, the top 4 QBs will be gone before we pick. I think this is Gute’s view when GB was not one of the 16 teams represented at Josh Allen’s pro day. Allen is good enough to do due diligence on in case he would fall.
 
So the top 4 QBs are out of the equation when considering a trade for GB’s pick at 14. If we trade 14 it will be because some other team covets a player other than QB that fell.

Now it becomes a harder task to ponder a trade as the difference of passing on a QB as to a top 10 pick at a position of need hits home hard.

The likely partner(s) for such trades (the one’s Gute would look at anyway) will come in three flavors IMHO.

 A couple spots back 15-19 and a mid to late 2nd.

Further back 20-25 plus a late second and early to mid 3rd.

Way back getting 2 very early 2nd rounders and a late 2nd/early 3rd.



If Edmunds fell do we trade?

If Fitzpatrick fell do we trade?

Could you live with Lorenzo Carter and Arden Key plus 2 2nd round CBs?

What a puzzle guys.

Online OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2018, 02:39:45 PM »

The likely partner(s) for such trades (the one’s Gute would look at anyway) will come in three flavors IMHO.

 A couple spots back 15-19 and a mid to late 2nd.  Your maximum trade down (back to #19) is worth pick #9 in round 3 in the chart most seem to accept these days (see below for link).

Further back 20-25 plus a late second and early to mid 3rd. Your maximum trade down (back to #25) is worth pick #52, a mid 2nd rounder.

Way back getting 2 very early 2nd rounders and a late 2nd/early 3rd. Trading back to pick #31 is worth pick #40, a quarter of the way down round 2. Trading way back to pick #38 (round 2) is worth the first pick in round 2 (pick 33).

If Edmunds fell do we trade?

If Fitzpatrick fell do we trade?

With respect to trading up for Edmunds or Fitzpatrick - at what pick you do want to pull the trigger, and how much are you willing to pay (remembering that since you are the one initiating the trade, you will have to give up more than face value) ?

The draft trade value chart used, is here. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=gb
« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 02:46:07 PM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Offline dannobanano

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Re: Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2018, 04:14:23 PM »
If 4 or maybe even 5 QB's (I've heard rumors of Lamar Smith) end up being picked before #14 there is no way I'm trading back because that means an entire buffet of player talent has fallen into the Packers lap at #14 and they can now choose Filet Mignon instead of Ground Chuck.

Offline Fargofootball

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Re: Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2018, 12:26:47 AM »


If Edmunds fell do we trade?

If Fitzpatrick fell do we trade?

With respect to trading up for Edmunds or Fitzpatrick - at what pick you do want to pull the trigger, and how much are you willing to pay (remembering that since you are the one initiating the trade, you will have to give up more than face value) ?

The draft trade value chart used, is here. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=gb [/quote]
[/quote]

Sorry I meant would we accept a trade back if either were on the board.

Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2018, 10:45:58 AM »
I agree with the OP that I think it's pretty likely that there will be at least 4 QB's (and it's not too far out of the question that there could be 5) gone by the time we pick.

At #14 we're right on the edge of getting a "blue chip" type of player that could really help us on defense (Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Denzel Ward, Terrell Edmunds, Harold Landry, Josh Jackson or Marcus Davenport). All it will take for us to land one is that 5th QB to get picked or for some other team to reach for another player.

I'd really hate to trade back from where we are if it's the difference between grabbing a top tier guy or settling for a (perceived) second tier guy.

Offline ricky

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Re: Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2018, 11:08:23 AM »
Lets recalls that Raji was picked at #9 (which shocked a lot of people on this board), and the Packers then traded with NE to get pick #26, which they used on Clay Matthews. Was CMIII a "second tier player" because he was drafted that late in the first? Was Raji a "blue chip" player because he was chosen earlier? And if that is the case, what does that say about the pick of Hawk at #5? Draft position is much less important than production once the player gets into the league.
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Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2018, 01:38:00 PM »
Lets recalls that Raji was picked at #9 (which shocked a lot of people on this board), and the Packers then traded with NE to get pick #26, which they used on Clay Matthews. Was CMIII a "second tier player" because he was drafted that late in the first? Was Raji a "blue chip" player because he was chosen earlier? And if that is the case, what does that say about the pick of Hawk at #5? Draft position is much less important than production once the player gets into the league.

I completely agree about "production vs. where drafted", but at this point it's all perception and projection.

Example: The general perception is that Derwin James is an elite prospect, but who knows? Justin Reid or Jessie Bates (arguably second tier Safeties) might have longer and/or more successful careers.

Offline ricky

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Re: Top 4 QBs will be off the board
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2018, 05:17:23 PM »
I completely agree about "production vs. where drafted", but at this point it's all perception and projection.

Example: The general perception is that Derwin James is an elite prospect, but who knows? Justin Reid or Jessie Bates (arguably second tier Safeties) might have longer and/or more successful careers.

Exactly. The draft is a crap shoot, and even highly regarded players can be big time busts. Which (related to another thread) the idea of trading Rodgers for a boatload of draft picks makes no sense. At least to me.
"My hopes are not always realized, but I always hope." Ovid