November 18, 2018, 05:47:55 PM

Author Topic: 2018 Comp Picks  (Read 3500 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Leader

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13020
  • Karma: +2/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2017, 09:34:12 AM »
This actually can be quantified a bit more.

Whats the largest number of single draft picks TT's made?
What year? How many guys? How many hit or missed?

Personally - unresearched - it feels like 12's ALOT of bodies in one draft. Maybe its been done (or close to being done) before - dont know.
If you sit pat - select all 12 - and say 75% of them "hit" (i.e. make the team/roster) - thats alot of single year guys hitting FA at one time no?

I wouldnt mind TT moving up / around more often than he does - or - packaging guys and/or picks to a team for their NEXT YEAR #2 (or something like that) as it gives flexibility in the future draft to wheel and deal. 

Offline dannobanano

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4638
  • Karma: +10/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2017, 10:20:47 AM »
7 of the 2018 picks are day 3 picks. Does he need to rebuild the back end of the roster that badly?

In his first couple drafts he accumulated a lot of picks. Might have been as many as 12 in one of those early years as he was rebuilding a roster left in tatters by GM Mike Sherman.

I understand the reasoning of drafting quantity, but it isn’t universally the best thing to do in every draft, and it also hinges on who’s available and when.

If a player you really liked but thought would go in the top 20, but for some reason slipped and was still on the board at #38, and you are picking at #47 but have a pile of draft picks to use (later), does it make sense to just sit and wait and hope he falls another 9 spots, or do you try to get him?

Just trying to apply some logic to the process.

Offline Leader

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13020
  • Karma: +2/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2017, 10:39:08 AM »
If a player you really liked but thought would go in the top 20, but for some reason slipped and was still on the board at #38, and you are picking at #47 but have a pile of draft picks to use (later), does it make sense to just sit and wait and hope he falls another 9 spots, or do you try to get him?

I say be certain your talent evaporators / evaluations are on target and if so, try to go and get him.

Offline RT

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2453
  • Karma: +7/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2017, 01:39:17 PM »
7 of the 2018 picks are day 3 picks. Does he need to rebuild the back end of the roster that badly?

In his first couple drafts he accumulated a lot of picks. Might have been as many as 12 in one of those early years as he was rebuilding a roster left in tatters by GM Mike Sherman.

I understand the reasoning of drafting quantity, but it isn’t universally the best thing to do in every draft, and it also hinges on who’s available and when.

If a player you really liked but thought would go in the top 20, but for some reason slipped and was still on the board at #38, and you are picking at #47 but have a pile of draft picks to use (later), does it make sense to just sit and wait and hope he falls another 9 spots, or do you try to get him?

Just trying to apply some logic to the process.

That is just common sense and standard operating practice for every team at every draft, every year. Jason Spriggs and Clay Matthews are prime examples of TT doing just that when the opportunity presented itself. Not sure how that would apply logic, seems like a given.

Offline RT

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2453
  • Karma: +7/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2017, 01:45:05 PM »
This actually can be quantified a bit more.

Whats the largest number of single draft picks TT's made?
What year? How many guys? How many hit or missed?

Personally - unresearched - it feels like 12's ALOT of bodies in one draft. Maybe its been done (or close to being done) before - dont know.
If you sit pat - select all 12 - and say 75% of them "hit" (i.e. make the team/roster) - thats alot of single year guys hitting FA at one time no?

I wouldnt mind TT moving up / around more often than he does - or - packaging guys and/or picks to a team for their NEXT YEAR #2 (or something like that) as it gives flexibility in the future draft to wheel and deal.

Number of draft picks by year under TT,

2017-10
2016-7
2015-8
2014-9
2013-11
2012-8
2011-10
2010-7
2009-8
2008-9
2007-11
2006-12
2005-11

Offline Leader

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13020
  • Karma: +2/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2017, 08:36:52 AM »
Aaron Nagler:
Ted is in charge of two more drafts, then his contract is up.

<Puts things into easy to understand context. So for all intents and purposes, unless AR plays for a really long time (which I doubt) it could be considered that TT will have drafted all the players for ARs career>

Offline OneTwoSixFive

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2171
  • Karma: +4/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2017, 10:23:22 AM »
The Packers do need some depth, but less so than many teams. What they are short of is front-end talent. While the occasional later pick pans out well (Aaron Jones and Corey Linsley are two examples of guys that look successful, both taken in the back half of round 5), early picks are early for a reason. They don't always pan out, but they have the potential to be good.

I'd like to see Ted become 'the bundler', trading some of those 5th's for higher picks in rounds 1-3. Coupled with a pick in a higher round a comp 5th would get you 2-3 spots higher in round 2, 5 in round 3, 12 in round 4. You don't usually want too many picks in the same area of the draft, because if you keep a bunch of picks in the same area, after you pick your best guy, you then have to pick second best and third best. Better to trade some, and move around in the draft elsewhere to pick up guys who look great value. You could also trade the comp 3rd (assuming we get one). Pick (approx) 100 is coincidentally worth 100 points on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. Trading that should allow a move up of about 10 spots in round two, which could well be a step up to a higher plateau of talent. You could even bundle it with the Packers own 3rd rounder to get a second, 2nd round pick at the bottom of round two.

Adding (for example) an OLB, RT, CB, all in rounds 1-2 could fill many weaknesses in the Packers squad, because you would hope that first and second round picks become future starters. I know that means the Packers miss out on a top WR (which they will need soon), but you cannot always fill all the holes.


(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"

Online claymaker

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2945
  • Karma: +1/-1
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2017, 04:52:25 PM »
The Packers do need some depth, but less so than many teams. What they are short of is front-end talent. While the occasional later pick pans out well (Aaron Jones and Corey Linsley are two examples of guys that look successful, both taken in the back half of round 5), early picks are early for a reason. They don't always pan out, but they have the potential to be good.

I'd like to see Ted become 'the bundler', trading some of those 5th's for higher picks in rounds 1-3. Coupled with a pick in a higher round a comp 5th would get you 2-3 spots higher in round 2, 5 in round 3, 12 in round 4. You don't usually want too many picks in the same area of the draft, because if you keep a bunch of picks in the same area, after you pick your best guy, you then have to pick second best and third best. Better to trade some, and move around in the draft elsewhere to pick up guys who look great value. You could also trade the comp 3rd (assuming we get one). Pick (approx) 100 is coincidentally worth 100 points on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. Trading that should allow a move up of about 10 spots in round two, which could well be a step up to a higher plateau of talent. You could even bundle it with the Packers own 3rd rounder to get a second, 2nd round pick at the bottom of round two.

Adding (for example) an OLB, RT, CB, all in rounds 1-2 could fill many weaknesses in the Packers squad, because you would hope that first and second round picks become future starters. I know that means the Packers miss out on a top WR (which they will need soon), but you cannot always fill all the holes.

I think they're lacking playmakers on defense. They have options at RT, Bulaga is still young enough to retain and they have decent depth behind him they probably feel confident in. IMO their front end talent on offense is Aaron Rodgers, and that's all you really need.

I don't believe they need a WR. They're not going to let Adams get away and Nelson is still going to produce. Looks like they really nailed their RB selections from last year's draft, and Montgomery is their ace at the position. TE is really the one skill position they've been lacking. Not a great year for TEs, but there are a few options.

OLB has a multitude of options and I'd like to see Green Bay use the same philosophy they did with RBs in 2017. They really need to hit on another young pass rusher with Matthews' pass rush ability ailing and Perry constantly dinged up. Fixing the pass rush on defense is pretty much the fix all for it IMO. King may have what it takes to be their #1 corner, but I agree CB is a position they could draft earlier rather than later.

If they find another pass rusher from the 2018 draft, I'll consider it successful. My expectations are high in that regard, but I could care less about everything else really. Which means they will get multiple players who aren't pass rushers most likely.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2017, 04:53:01 PM by claymaker »

Offline OneTwoSixFive

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2171
  • Karma: +4/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #23 on: November 18, 2017, 03:28:22 AM »
I don't believe they need a WR. They're not going to let Adams get away and Nelson is still going to produce. Looks like they really nailed their RB selections from last year's draft, and Montgomery is their ace at the position. TE is really the one skill position they've been lacking. Not a great year for TEs, but there are a few options.

I think you are wrong, and here's why. Wide receivers tend to fall off a cliff after age 34. Jordy is 32 right now. That would give him maybe two more years.

Young receivers, even good ones, often take until their third year to shine (see Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams). There is no-one else on the Packers team that looks capable of being a no.1 or no.2 outside WR. Trevor Davis, Geronimo Allison and Jeff Janis don't look like that guy, while PS players Clark, Yancey and McCaffrey are the longest long shots, to be a 1 or 2.

The Packers have to be ready when Jordy hits the wall, and that means getting a potential starter now, which is usually done with a first or second round pick (Davante was a 2nd rounder, Jordy a high 2nd).

Impressive late-career seasons from Jerry Rice, Irving Fryar, Cris Carter, and Tim Brown tend to be the exception rather than the rule, most receivers fall away earlier. Ted Thompson is not, as a rule, kind to older players, and Jordy's contract is up after 2018.

I understand that the Packers have other starter-quality needs. A good OLB and CB are two of them, but they need a WR as well, and it needs to be an early pick or you will end up with someone like Bill 'alligator-arms' Shroeder as your starter, or worse.

It is at least possible that Ted could package his normal 3rd round pick with the comp third, to move up into the bottom of round two, giving three picks in the first two rounds - those three picks could really help the franchise, if they all become good starter quality.

« Last Edit: November 18, 2017, 04:02:50 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"

Offline dannobanano

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4638
  • Karma: +10/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #24 on: November 18, 2017, 07:54:47 AM »
IMO ...... Jordy gets a 2 year extension after 2018. Adams gets his extension after this year. Cobb is the question mark. This would still give GB a #1 & #2 for another couple years and could take the pressure off of having to commit a high pick in 2018 to a WR. It would also give them one more season to see what they have in Clark and Yancey to determine how high a pick they may need to commit to keep the cupboard stocked at WR.

Not saying they shouldn’t draft a WR in 2018 with an early pick. Just saying it’s not written in stone that they have to do so.

Offline Gregg

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2471
  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #25 on: November 22, 2017, 01:24:20 PM »
I definitely do not want to ignore WR or RB in this draft.  It looks to be a good RB draft.

IMO, I think Cobb should be released and move Monty to his slot.  That would save us a lot of money and we would end up improving at the position..

I do not think we are really settled at RB, in light of the legal problems with Jones.  And IMO, neither Williams nor Mays has shown very much yet.

Hopefully, if we draft a WR and RB that will soup up our offense for AR's return.  But in addition to that I think we need to draft a TE also.

Offline Leader

  • HOF Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13020
  • Karma: +2/-0
Re: 2018 Comp Picks
« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2017, 03:02:39 PM »
I definitely do not want to ignore WR or RB in this draft.  It looks to be a good RB draft.

IMO, I think Cobb should be released and move Monty to his slot.  That would save us a lot of money and we would end up improving at the position..

I do not think we are really settled at RB, in light of the legal problems with Jones.  And IMO, neither Williams nor Mays has shown very much yet.

Hopefully, if we draft a WR and RB that will soup up our offense for AR's return.  But in addition to that I think we need to draft a TE also.

Cant disagree.

Although, I'm not sold that Monty's an improvement in the slot - I think its been fairly proven he's not durable enough to last at RB. Somethings gotta get finalized there. Is he a + in the slot? Not sure. Theres been a fair amount of talk about moving Jordy over (he has had some success there) So we looking at the next Larry Fitzgerald? I see some other teams with real speed threats as their slot receivers - guys that can tear up the middle or go side to side - FAST - serious coverage problems. Jordy? I think those days might be a bit in the rear view mirror now.