May 20, 2018, 10:55:32 AM

Author Topic: On the clock  (Read 3298 times)

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Offline packdaddy

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2017, 05:47:44 PM »
Here is my first on the clock draft for 2018. I think I solved our pass rush problem and wouldn't think twice about taking all three of those guys if they fell in these spots.

16: R1P16  EDGE ARDEN KEY LSU
48: R2P16  TE MARK ANDREWS OKLAHOMA
80: R3P16  EDGE CLELIN FERRELL CLEMSON
102: R3P38  EDGE DORANCE ARMSTRONG JR. KANSAS
118: R4P16  CB J.C. JACKSON MARYLAND
155: R5P16  CB SAM BEAL WESTERN MICHIGAN
173: R5P34  C JAMES DANIELS IOWA
175: R5P36  WR DANTE PETTIS WASHINGTON
177: R5P38  OT CASEY TUCKER STANFORD
194: R6P16  G SCOTT QUESSENBERRY UCLA
235: R7P16  LB TEGRAY SCALES INDIANA
237: R7P18  G LARRY ALLEN JR. HARVARD

You inspired me to get an early jump on the hours that I historically waste on this addictive site.  I only did 5 rounds because I'm not up enough on the later players yet, but still, check out this draft.  If only:

1.  EDGE - BRADLEY CHUBB - NC STATE

2. LB - ROQUAN SMITH - GEORGIA

3a: TE - MARK ANDREWS - OKLAHOMA

3b: C - FRANK RAGNOW - ARKANSAS

4. WR - DJ CHARK - LSU

5a: S - DOMINICK SANDERS - GEORGIA

5b. CB - M.J. STEWART - N. CAROLINA

5c. DL - CHRISTIAN LACOUTURE - LSU

5d. QB - RYAN FINLEY - NC STATE

I doubt Chubb will get past the top 10 picks.

Agreed...which is why I always feel like these simulators are a waste of time...but then, come draft day, weird things happen in real life...

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2017, 09:27:31 AM »
I doubt Chubb will get past the top 10 picks.

Agreed...which is why I always feel like these simulators are a waste of time...but then, come draft day, weird things happen in real life...

Oh, I believe they do have good value, though maybe not in the way you might expect. If you take them as an indicator of who you can realistically draft, you may be disappointed when the real draft day rolls around. That is not what i get from the simulator.

Since you can select a variety of different draft boards and team needs, and you can redraft both now and in the months ahead, you can get a good feel of the value spread, as you try different permutations. You also get to appreciate the change in players values as they rise and fall over time (shows up as they become, or are no longer available, at a given draft spot).

If you keep seeing a player available at a good draft spot it encourages you to find out about that player, through watching college games and/or checking the opinion of the internet draftniks (though you have to choose carefully whose opinions to trust, and look at more than one opinion). One of the most useful things I learn from the simulator is getting an idea of which position groups get cleared out early, and which become good value later. That helps find a 'sweet spot' for drafting at various position groups. It also shows 'barren areas' in the draft where ther is a big gap between one player at a position and the next best at the same position. This helps you to sort out a draft strategy. No-one can reliably simulate draft day, obviously, but if you are good at putting clues together you are less likely to be caught out on the big day.

This early in the process, I have already noticed that several CBs are grouped in round three. Same applies to a couple of likely TE prospects. If that holds steady over the next few months, it might solidify my opinion to go OLB, WR in the first two rounds and CB, TE in the third.

If you do scores of mocks (as I did, last year), you notice little things about the simulator. For example, EARLY ON in the draft the simulator tries hard to match up a pick with a teams most urgent need(s). that can result in good players falling, especially through round 1and into 2 (eg  Chubb falling). Later in the draft, it is noticeable that the computer is less picky on position, and goes more for overall value. You should factor this into how you view the draft, because in the real world bargains are snapped up faster than the simulator, well, simulates, early on.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2017, 09:50:17 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Offline DWhitehurst

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #17 on: December 26, 2017, 10:27:56 PM »
I just don't get the hype with Arden Key. Just going by what I have watched on film of players, I would take Harold Landry over him and Chubb in a heartbeat if we're looking to get a 3-4 OLB.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2017, 10:29:53 PM by DWhitehurst »

Offline pacman5252

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2017, 03:42:31 AM »
I just don't get the hype with Arden Key. Just going by what I have watched on film of players, I would take Harold Landry over him and Chubb in a heartbeat if we're looking to get a 3-4 OLB.

You can’t teach 6’6’’ long, and Key is more of a twitch athlete. Laundry was way better in college though.


Offline golfman

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2017, 07:32:52 AM »
I just don't get the hype with Arden Key. Just going by what I have watched on film of players, I would take Harold Landry over him and Chubb in a heartbeat if we're looking to get a 3-4 OLB.

You can’t teach 6’6’’ long, and Key is more of a twitch athlete. Laundry was way better in college though.

This year and Key had some ankle issues. Those are tough to overcome for a pass rusher whose built on speed and initial burst.
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Offline SET4YRS

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2017, 03:16:00 PM »
 This draft will thin out if a lot of underclassmen don't declare, but I'll give it a shot. I'm thinking the top 3 passrushers will be gone by the time we pick so we double down.

 1) OLB/DE Sam Hubbard, Ohio St (trade down)
 2) WR Parris Campbell, Ohio St
 3) WR Dante Pettis, Washington (trade up)
 3) OLB Sione Teuhema, Southeast Louisiana
 3) T Tyrell Crosby, Oregon
 4) CB Jamal Peters, Mississippi St
 5) traded
 5) TE Caleb Wilson, UCLA (trade up)
 5) RG/C Bradley Bozeman, Alabama
 6) TE Marcus Baugh, Ohio St

Offline golfman

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #21 on: December 27, 2017, 03:38:47 PM »
This draft will thin out if a lot of underclassmen don't declare, but I'll give it a shot. I'm thinking the top 3 passrushers will be gone by the time we pick so we double down.

 1) OLB/DE Sam Hubbard, Ohio St (trade down)
 2) WR Parris Campbell, Ohio St
 3) WR Dante Pettis, Washington (trade up)
 3) OLB Sione Teuhema, Southeast Louisiana
 3) T Tyrell Crosby, Oregon
 4) CB Jamal Peters, Mississippi St
 5) traded
 5) TE Caleb Wilson, UCLA (trade up)
 5) RG/C Bradley Bozeman, Alabama
 6) TE Marcus Baugh, Ohio St

If hte top three pass rushers are gone, there are a lot of very talented players on the board to not reach for Hubbard. JMO of course.
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Offline SET4YRS

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #22 on: December 27, 2017, 03:47:20 PM »
 Maybe Hubbard has a good combine and moves up and he's not a reach? There are a lot of athletic/prototypical underachievers in this draft. Scouting them will come down to the combine and senior bowl. It's really early for this stuff.

Offline SET4YRS

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2017, 03:48:05 PM »
 And that's a trade back for Hubbard.

Offline golfman

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2017, 03:55:28 PM »
And that's a trade back for Hubbard.

Much better value then, obviously!  ;D
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Online The GM

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #25 on: December 28, 2017, 09:02:01 AM »
We have lots of holes, but the first priority is retaining Aaron Rodgers.   The Packers cant afford to wait if Nelson and Cobb play after next year.  We have Adams and a bunch of JAGs across from him in 2019.  Making a investment in keeping Rodgers,  the Packers with the 14th pick? Select Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama.    Good WR with big upside, trapped in a running offense, and a running QB, he'll be very good at the next level.

This pick is subject to change and will change, but for today, he's the pick.  As mentioned retaining Rodgers should be priority one, then work heavily on the D.
Fire Away!!!
« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 09:33:34 AM by The GM »

Offline Pack Man

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #26 on: December 28, 2017, 04:45:16 PM »
My try at, On The Clock...

14: R1P14 EDGE ARDEN KEY
LSU

46: R2P14 TE MARK ANDREWS
OKLAHOMA

78: R3P14 WR DEON CAIN
CLEMSON

102: R3P38 EDGE DORANCE ARMSTRONG JR.
KANSAS

116: R4P14 TE MIKE GESICKI
PENN STATE

153: R5P14 CB IMAN MARSHALL
USC

173: R5P34 DL JOSH FATU
USC

175: R5P36 CB MARK FIELDS
CLEMSON

177: R5P38 G SCOTT QUESSENBERRY
UCLA

192: R6P14 OT AUSTIN CORBETT
NEVADA

233: R7P14 RB RAWLEIGH WILLIAMS
ARKANSAS

237: R7P18 LB KENNY YOUNG
UCLA


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Offline golfman

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #27 on: December 28, 2017, 05:10:33 PM »
I like it pack man.
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Offline Pack Man

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #28 on: December 28, 2017, 05:58:41 PM »
Thanks golfman..... cheese)


Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
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Offline pacman5252

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Re: On the clock
« Reply #29 on: December 28, 2017, 06:14:31 PM »
We have lots of holes, but the first priority is retaining Aaron Rodgers.   The Packers cant afford to wait if Nelson and Cobb play after next year.  We have Adams and a bunch of JAGs across from him in 2019.  Making a investment in keeping Rodgers,  the Packers with the 14th pick? Select Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama.    Good WR with big upside, trapped in a running offense, and a running QB, he'll be very good at the next level.

This pick is subject to change and will change, but for today, he's the pick.  As mentioned retaining Rodgers should be priority one, then work heavily on the D.
Fire Away!!!

I actually wouldn't be completely against going heavy O and just trying to win shoot outs. Make the strength a bigger strength and winning big isn't a bad option, especially since we've had a bad recent track record drafting defense. I'd personally rather have Washington over Ridley since I think he is better in space and getting open on the intermediate routes, but I definitely get the Ridley love.