September 23, 2018, 05:09:46 AM

Author Topic: Guesses at the 53 man roster  (Read 4549 times)

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Offline ricky

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2018, 08:38:08 PM »
.... ..Here is the reason the Packers drafted him, from the article:

Of his 42 punts this year, 54.7 percent ended in fair catches. ...
Touchbacks also fell ... to 7.1 percent in 2017.
Most importantly, the Scott limited Alabama opponents to three punt returns this season. ...

Ricky or anybody, I'm confused by this numbers. 
So, total of 42 punts:
*23 are fair catches (55%)
*3 are touchbacks (7%)
*3 are returned (7%)

So, what happened to the other 13 punts (31%)?  Am I missing something obvious, or do these numbers not add up? 

By the way, I *LOVE* the idea of a big-leg who can hang them and pin them inside the 20. 

(Heh heh, now that Janis is gone, we don't have the great gunner anymore!  :):)  But if you have a hang-em-high fair-catch punter, who needs a gunner anymore?)

Note:  I also thought I read something to the effect that Scott might be a better holder than Vogel?  Beats me, but that's another task where malfunction can cost you points.

Landed out of bounds?
"My hopes are not always realized, but I always hope." Ovid

Offline dannobanano

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2018, 05:11:14 AM »
.... ..Here is the reason the Packers drafted him, from the article:

Of his 42 punts this year, 54.7 percent ended in fair catches. ...
Touchbacks also fell ... to 7.1 percent in 2017.
Most importantly, the Scott limited Alabama opponents to three punt returns this season. ...

Ricky or anybody, I'm confused by this numbers. 
So, total of 42 punts:
*23 are fair catches (55%)
*3 are touchbacks (7%)
*3 are returned (7%)

So, what happened to the other 13 punts (31%)?  Am I missing something obvious, or do these numbers not add up? 

By the way, I *LOVE* the idea of a big-leg who can hang them and pin them inside the 20. 

(Heh heh, now that Janis is gone, we don't have the great gunner anymore!  :):)  But if you have a hang-em-high fair-catch punter, who needs a gunner anymore?)

Note:  I also thought I read something to the effect that Scott might be a better holder than Vogel?  Beats me, but that's another task where malfunction can cost you points.

Landed out of bounds?

Scott also did kick offs for Bama.

Of his 99 kick offs in 2017 45 ended up as touchbacks.

Would be nice having someone that lets Crosby focus on just field goals and point afters.

Offline RT

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2018, 09:43:51 AM »
I might go with:

QB  Rodgers, Hundley, Kizer
OL Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Linsley, Taylor, Spriggs, Murphy, McCray, Madison, Patrick
RB/FB Montgomery, A.Jones, Williams, Mays, Kerridge
WR D.Adams, Cobb, Allison, Moore, Davis, Valdez-Scantling
TE Graham, Kendricks, Rader

Total = 26

DL Clark, Daniels, Wilkerson, Lowry, M.Adams
OLB Matthews, Perry, Biegel, Gilbert, Donnerson, Fackrell/replaced by outside roster cutdown
ILB Martinez, Ryan, Burks
CB King, Williams, Alexander, Jackson, House, Hawkins
S  Clinton-Dix, J.Jones, Brice, Evans

Total = 24

K  Crosby
P   Vogel (Scott makes the PS)
LS Bradley

Not so many new guys make the final 53 this year, most that are, were draft picks. QB Kizer (sort of new), G/T Madison, WRs Moore, Valdez-Scantling, UDFA TE Rader, OLB Donnerson, ILB Burks, CBs Alexander, Jackson, LS Bradley = 10 guys.

That is a very solid guess, 1265. Two very minor differents in thought here. First, Ripkowski was kept over Kerridge several times last year, why is Kerridge now going to beat him out? Second, when a team takes a player in the draft at a position where they seem to have a solid player already in place, that should tell us something about what they think of that draft choice. In Gute's words of describing Scott, he called him a 'rare' player, just think Scott would have to completely fall on his face not to win that job. All is yet to be determined and their are no correct answers at this moment, only our best guesses.   

Offline ricky

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2018, 01:32:30 PM »
The Packers a lot of years ago drafted a kicker, and then brought in some camp competition to keep him from getting overtired. The guy they brought in, some guy named Longwell, was kept. The draft pick was sent packing. So, sure, Scott has the inside track now. But until the final roster is set, nothing is assured for either kicker. Though, as noted elsewhere, Scott would have to really screw up to not make the roster.
"My hopes are not always realized, but I always hope." Ovid

Offline RT

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2018, 02:20:51 PM »
You are correct ricky, Ron Wolf drafted Brett Conway in the 3rd round to replace Chris Jacke who he had grown tired of his contract demands and off the field issues. Only thing was Conway had a leg injury in training camp and Longwell was brought in late. Conway was put on injured reserve that year and Longwell took full advantage of his opportunity and never gave up the job. Conway went on to kick for the Redskins, but in the end Longwell had the better career. Much is yet to be determined, but Scott was drafted for a reason. The question that is yet to be answered, does he take full advantage of his opportunity?

Offline RT

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2018, 09:40:05 AM »
Interesting look at the 53 by Ross Uglem here. He is a person who puts a lot of time into Packers personnel. Don't believe they keep 7 WR's, but like his defense.

http://packerstalk.com/2018/05/01/way-to-early-packers-53-man-roster-prediction/

Offline bmaafi

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2018, 11:52:51 PM »
I actually agree mostly with Ross. I think they keep 7 receivers because I dont think any of our draft picks makes it through to the practice squad. I think Allison, Clark and Yancey are fighting for one or two roster spots.

I don't think they keep 6 DL since they are in sub packages so much where there are only 2 DL on the field.

I think Donnerson is too raw and will end up on the PS.

I think Goodson is basically done. I like Rollins at safety. I think thats where he should have been put when he was drafted. I always felt he would be a better fit there.

Offline RT

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2018, 05:20:22 AM »
I actually agree mostly with Ross. I think they keep 7 receivers because I dont think any of our draft picks makes it through to the practice squad. I think Allison, Clark and Yancey are fighting for one or two roster spots.

I don't think they keep 6 DL since they are in sub packages so much where there are only 2 DL on the field.

I think Donnerson is too raw and will end up on the PS.

I think Goodson is basically done. I like Rollins at safety. I think thats where he should have been put when he was drafted. I always felt he would be a better fit there.

Interesting thought on the DL, but do we really know if Pettine will continue the volume of only 2 DL that Capers did? The Ryan tree has always been about building a bully, being bigger, stronger and more physical then the team they were playing.

Offline packlaw

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2018, 06:25:23 AM »
I think they will keep all drafted rookies at WR along with Cobb and Adams...the rest will fight for the last spot...I hope the team works on converting Clark to a TE as a heir apparent to Graham...I think all draftees could make the 53...this is an excellent draft class.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2018, 11:22:28 AM »
I'm going to make a bold statement here........................

I'm guessing that the starting #2 WR position is going to come down to two candidates.

DeAngelo Yancey and J'Mon Moore.

As a 5th round draft choice in 2017, Yancey came to OTA's overweight, but was back to his Combine weight of 220# by TC. He flashed some talent in the Packers first 2017 preseason game leading the team in receptions and yards. Then he hurt his hammy. Didn't play again in the preseason. Was cut, and signed to the PS, where he spent the rest of the 2017 season. He has drawn comparisons to James Jones.
Now I read that he has dropped 15 lbs and is moving faster/quicker than before.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/10/packers-wr-deangelo-yancey-loses-weight-increases-play-speed/

I have friends in Indiana who are big Purdue fans, and followed his entire career at Purdue. Yancey was a very big part of Purdues offense in his time there, even with sub-par QB's throwing him the ball. I feel that GB fans have not given him a very fair evaluation, and Yancey hasn't exactly helped himself either. With a years experience in the Packers system, will he be the one to grab the starting #2 WR spot?

Then there is J'Mon Moore, a 2018 4th round comp pick. His size and the way he moves has made some people compare him to DaVante Adams. A lot has been made about his slow "40" time at the Combine, but he graded out near the top for every other tested measurable he performed.
Then there is this....................

http://www.packers.com/news-and-events/article-insider-inbox/article-1/Some-things-you-just-have-to-see-for-yourself/3a8b7a7f-b781-43b7-8215-511f358f70fe

Quote
J’Mon Moore jumped out to me. Jon-Eric Sullivan said last week how the Missouri receiver plays faster than he timed at the NFL Scouting Combine and I believe him after watching Moore practice Friday. He explodes off the line of scrimmage and gets better at the top of his routes. There was one play Friday where he got behind Jaire Alexander on a deep ball during one-on-one drills. Some things you just have to see for yourself.

I think Moore's suddenness in his route running will set him apart from Clark, Valdes-Scantling, and St. Brown. The one thing he will have to clean up is his drops................most attribute that problem to lack of focus, so it's a correctable issue. But like this guy says...............

https://www.totalpackers.com/2018/04/jmon-moore-could-be-gutekunsts-biggest-bargain/

Quote
So, despite lacking focus and drive, he put together back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus receiving yards, while playing in only 12 and 13 games. I’d take that kind of inconsistency any time.

Lapses in play? The guy has shown the consistency of a Swiss watch: 16.3 and 16.6 yards per catch in his junior and senior years; 84.3 and 83.2 yards per game; eight and 10 touchdown receptions.

I think the competition between these two for the starting #2 WR position will be one of the more fun competitions to watch in this years training camp.

Offline RT

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #25 on: May 10, 2018, 02:03:05 PM »
I will not claim you are right or wrong danno, but I will play devil's advocate for a minute. If the Packers believed that they already had Nelson's replacement in-house would they have invested soo much draft capital in the WR position? I will add also that Yancey will probably be the odd man out in the case of all ties with any draft choice. It is only natural that Gute would keep his draft class around ahead of any marginal carryovers. Yancey will need to be the clear winner in order to advance to the opening day 53. All yet to be determined.

Offline RT

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2018, 08:14:44 AM »
Andy Herman

 
@SconnieSports
 12h12 hours ago
More
Watched a lot of the Packers receivers tonight. My feeling right now:

Adams > Cobb > Allison > Moore > Davis > MVS > ESB > Yancey > Clark > Pearson > Kumerow

It won’t take long for Moore to pass Allison & for me it’s a fight w/ MVS, ESB & Yancey for the 6 spot.

Andy Herman has some good clips on his twitter account of the WR's. He is a guy putting in the time to break them down.

https://twitter.com/SconnieSports

Offline craig

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #27 on: May 12, 2018, 09:24:14 AM »
Thanks, RT.  Yeah, he's done a lot of video, so I appreciate and respect his perspective.  I think his ranking is pretty reasonable. 

Obviously there are limits: 
1.  Video is taken from days past, not days future.  D+D is premised on idea that future can be better than past; but how much better can vary from guy to guy.  (The potential upwards trajectory for a 3rd-year vet like Davis might not be as sharp as for the rookies or Clark...)

2.  Bodies change. Yancey's weight varied significantly from college to last spring to last camp to present.  He thought he should make himself bigger for NFL; in retrospect he concluded that had been counterproductive, and he's worked to slim back towards a firmer, harder, stronger college weight.

3.  Yancey "too much rookie weight" came to mind when listening to ESB.  There was reference to him ~206 in college; he built up to 218 at combine; he thought that was good weight, that he was still moving well and testing well at combine; he thinks he can/should add another "good" 15 pounds.  Beats me.  Perhaps a 230-pound ESB will still have speed and agility; basically a slower Janis but with hands and receiving skill.  **MAYBE** ESB at 218-230 will be a much more physically dominant player than the college-on-video slimster.  But, might not ESB at 218-230 be another Yancey; the bigger ESB isn't as quick, and the extra muscle will do more harm than good?  Beats me, but I could easily envision story next year about how ESB is going to be better in 2019 because he built up too much in 2018, and now in 2019 he's trimmed back down and is going to be better as a result! 

4.  Video tends to come from completions.  I'm guessing when Andy Herman is looking at film, I don't know but I'm guessing a lot of it is on "success" plays when a guy makes a catch.  Not sure how much access he has to film where MVS isn't getting open at all; or when MVS and Moore are dropping catchable throws? 

5.  I suspect video is excellent at reviewing body-control and coordination.  Jordy's was terrific; Janis kinda clueless. 

Offline craig

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #28 on: May 12, 2018, 10:53:28 AM »
I might go with:

QB  Rodgers, Hundley, Kizer
If they could by with 2, that would open a spot elsewhere.  We'll see whether Kizer can have a clue in new Packers system or not. 

OL Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Linsley, Taylor, Spriggs, Murphy, McCray, Madison, Patrick
I'd love to be able to carry another guy here.  Would be fun if Amichai or Pankey or somebody looked too good to cut.  Think there's also a good chance that Bulaga will start PUP, which could open a spot
 
RB/FB Montgomery, A.Jones, Williams, Mays, Kerridge
Think they save a spot here and go with 3 RB, not 4.  Don't see either the need for Mays, or the upside.  4th back won't play unless there are multiple injuries to top 3; in that case you can call up a guy from practice squad or off the street.  Even if you do want to carry a 4th, or need to add a 4th at some injury-necessitate point, not sure Mays is the guy you want?  Is he practice-squad eligible, by the way, or no?

WR D.Adams, Cobb, Allison, Moore, Davis, Valdez-Scantling
First four, locks.  After that, anybody's guess.  No clue between Davis, VS, ESB, Yancey, Clark, etc..  I'd love to keep a 7th, actually, if that means guys are looking promising. (By dropping 3rd QB and 4th RB, I may have room.) Also, if Davis and VS aren't really "receivers" but are basically punt/gunner ST specialists, I don't know that we can say "7 WR is too many", if two of them actually aren't WR but are just ST specialists.
TE Graham, Kendricks, Rader
3 seems good, I'd pick Byrd.  Not sure we actually need 3, though; is 3rd ever going to play barring injury?  **IF** Graham gets hurt so that you need an extra, could call a guy up from PS then.  So, I actually think this really could be a 2-man position, and free a spot, hypothetically.  Again, 3rd guy might be a ST-specialist, but if so we could almost keep a pool of "ST-specialist" guys, and wouldn't need to consider that much what scrimmage position they might play...

Total = 26  Think I'm guessing 25 or 24 here, with potential trim at  3rd QB, 4th RB, possibly Bulaga at OL, and 3rd TE..[/b]


DL Clark, Daniels, Wilkerson, Lowry, M.Adams
OLB Matthews, Perry, Biegel, Gilbert, Donnerson, Fackrell/replaced by outside roster cutdown
Donnerson, barring a stunningly unexpected camp, is pure practice-squad, I think.  I'd see Odom ahead of Fackrell or Donnerson, although Fackrell is another "ST specialist group" candidate..  I wouldn't be surprised to see a 6th DL, between Looney and Lancaster[/b]
ILB Martinez, Ryan, Burks
CB King, Williams, Alexander, Jackson, House, Hawkins
Not sure who, but I'd expect at least one more guy, although I can't guess which name will be the guy.[/b]
S  Clinton-Dix, J.Jones, Brice, Evans

Total = 24Think I'm guessing 25 or 26 here, based on potential trims at  3rd QB, 4th RB, possibly Bulaga at OL, and 3rd TE..[/b]

K  Crosby
P   Vogel (Scott makes the PS)
LS Bradley

Not so many new guys make the final 53 this year, most that are, were draft picks. QB Kizer (sort of new), G/T Madison, WRs Moore, Valdez-Scantling, UDFA TE Rader, OLB Donnerson, ILB Burks, CBs Alexander, Jackson, LS Bradley = 10 guys.

Note:  I'm not sure that the guys who are "NOT" making the cut and are getting sent to practice squad are overwhelmingly good.  So this seems like a very manageble roster, where the cuts won't be all *that* painful.  And I'm not sure guys getting cut from Packers will much get snagged elsewhere; think most guys Packers cut will be able to make PS. 

Last, if some cuts do seem hard, now, it will be easier come August.  Presumably injuries will open up a handful of spots to guys who we don't anticipate making the roster today.  Hopefully that won't create very many new openings!. 

Offline RT

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Re: Guesses at the 53 man roster
« Reply #29 on: May 12, 2018, 11:12:12 AM »
Just a few thoughts on the WR position.

I'm interested to see if the Packers don't give J'mon Moore every chance to be the starter early on, in a similar way as to how they handled Adams his rookie season. They don't need elite production from day one from that spot, Adams had 38 catches his rookie season and like production this year from Moore would be fine.

Went back last week and read some of the scouting reports on Davis from before his draft, one scout said that it wouldn't be until his 3rd year before he would be a factor from scrimmage because of how extremely raw he was. It is always interesting to see the fanspeak when a raw player is drafted, it starts out echoing patients and giving him a chance to develop. But when it doesn't happen overnight they are ready to throw the baby out with the bathwater. It would be a surpise to me if he didn't make the cut this year, I think his best football is still ahead of him and also think he could factor in as a third WR option more this season.

 
I would not be surprised if Marquez Valdes-Scantling was drafted with the idea of solely being a ST replacement for Janis to start his career. If he can excel there, it would buy them time to see if they can develop him as a potential deep threat in the offense. If he shows to be a high level gunner it will lockup a roster spot for him.