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Very Good Article About our 1st round approach

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Shinesman:
Saw this written today and pretty much sums up my feelings about the first round and why, even though everyone seems to think it was a great success, it could have been a great mistake.

https://t.co/5OmvkFG20d

ricky:
No argument here. It could be a great mistake. It could set the Packers on the road to winning back-to-back SB's. Today, I saw a notification for a site that wanted to grade every team's first round draft pick. Which is nonsense. How many first round busts have there been? A lot:

http://www.businessinsider.com/top-nfl-draft-busts-2017-10

Meanwhile, we won't know how good Alexander is until the real games begin. He was the player mocked by Mayock the night before the draft. Also, with other players available, a lot of whom were widely discussed on this board available, the Packers chose to move back, and then maneuver to get Alexander. They knew who they wanted, got him, and also got a first round pick next year.

All this discussion is interesting, but academic. From the article, here is the last paragraph, the one that, to me, says it all:

Now we’ll have to watch and wait for a couple years to see whether Gutekunst made the right call by taking Alexander rather than sitting and picking Edmunds, James or Davenport at 14.

Payne85:
I don't think it takes a couple of years.  If Edmunds is a stud, we will know it by Week 6.  And if he is, pushing value out another year in Rodgers's football life is a mistake.  I could not believe that he was there and we didn't pounce on him.  Additionally,  we should have been trading future picks for Michel or Guice as well. 

Payne85

OneTwoSixFive:
It was not a straight competition between T.J.Watt and Kevin King last year. It was Watt vs KIng + Biegel (Biegel was the pick gained by moving back for King).

In the same way, it is not a straight-up comparison between Alexander vs Edmunds/Davenport/James, - you have to factor in a first round draft pick from NO. That could be a high pick, if 39 year old Drew Brees gets injured for any length of time..........or it could be a low one if the Saints play well and stay healthy. That extra pick could parlay into a top pass rusher next year, like Bosa or Ferrell (those guys are gone VERY quickly. Next year is projected to be better than this year at pass rusher.

Fans tend to have a win-now mentality, but it is the GMs responsibility to keep his team competitive over a longer haul. I have few reservations with how round one panned out, that 2019 first rounder for moving down four spots (they also lost a 3rd), sealed a great day one. They filled a crucial spot (the vacated nickel CB caused by the trade of Randall), and got future riches.

One of the most dangerous mentalities to have as a GM, is to think you are one great player away from a SB. This leads to deals like the one between Dallas and Minnesota (the Herschel Walker trade). How well did THAT work out for Minny. Would I have liked to see Edmunds or Davenport as a Packer, yes I would - do I think the Packers blundered with Alexander........no.

Twain:
I think media covering the Packers has had too much emphasis on edge rushers.

As I said in a different thread, if you look at the Vikings defense the first round picks are in the defensive backfield.  The top 3 edge rushers on their depth chart are a 3rd rounder and two 4th rounders.

With that, the Vikings are one of the top defenses in the NFL.

Pass rush and coverage are tightly linked, and dependent on each other.  In today's NFL, unless you can get tight coverage for the first three seconds, your pass rush is screwed against a top QB.  I think Gute gets that, so he drafted to fix that situation knowing it will take a year for these guys to develop.  I would speculate that next year he will go big on pass rush.

Like I said in the other thread, we are in a mini-rebuld.   I think this was a good first step.

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