June 20, 2018, 07:55:17 PM

Author Topic: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN  (Read 650 times)

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Offline dannobanano

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Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« on: May 06, 2018, 01:11:52 PM »
I can hear the howling in the Twin Cities already!!

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/Bolt/Packers-listed-as-slight-favorites-to-win-NFC-North--117921562

Quote
............when it comes to the NFC North, it looks like it will be between two teams to win the division title. BetDSI released its division odds for the 2018 season and the Green Bay Packers are listed as the favorites to win the NFC North. However, the Minnesota Vikings are listed a close second followed by the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears. Here's a look at the NFC North odds.

NFC North Odds for 2018-2019

1. Green Bay Packers: +115

2. Minnesota Vikings: +135

3. Detroit Lions: +600

4. Chicago Bears: +700

Offline RT

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2018, 04:24:08 PM »
I can hear the howling in the Twin Cities already!!

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/Bolt/Packers-listed-as-slight-favorites-to-win-NFC-North--117921562

Quote
............when it comes to the NFC North, it looks like it will be between two teams to win the division title. BetDSI released its division odds for the 2018 season and the Green Bay Packers are listed as the favorites to win the NFC North. However, the Minnesota Vikings are listed a close second followed by the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears. Here's a look at the NFC North odds.

NFC North Odds for 2018-2019

1. Green Bay Packers: +115

2. Minnesota Vikings: +135

3. Detroit Lions: +600

4. Chicago Bears: +700

No, wait danno this cannot be right. I keep reading on this forum that the Packers are in a rebuild and yet Vegas thinks the Packers will win the division? Oh what does Vegas know, surely forum rebuild guys knows better than billionaire casino guys.  :D

Online ricky

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2018, 05:34:15 PM »
Packers fans seem to enjoy the doom and gloom scenarios. It's as if the Packers were the Browns, rather than an elite team with SB ambitions every year.
"My hopes are not always realized, but I always hope." Ovid

Offline Twain

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2018, 07:15:00 AM »

No, wait danno this cannot be right. I keep reading on this forum that the Packers are in a rebuild and yet Vegas thinks the Packers will win the division? Oh what does Vegas know, surely forum rebuild guys knows better than billionaire casino guys.  :D

I will take the bait.

The two concepts are not mutually exclusive.  The packers can be in a mini re-build and a Las Vegas sports book could currently have them slightly favored to win the division.  Remember, the odds are set to give the billionaire the proper distribution of bets that guarantees that they make money- so it is essentially a crowd sourced opinion.  Not sure how much it means at this time of the year.

I have to think that based on current rosters, the Vikings have the more proven team overall, and the questions are how much impact the Packers rookies can provide, how much the younger veterans can improve, how much Aaron Rodgers dominance can make up for other roster issues, and most importantly how healthy each team is over the course of the season.  As we packers fans know, a good roster can turn very bad with injuries at key positions.
"The trouble ain't that there are too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right."

Offline craig

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2018, 08:45:22 AM »
.....Remember, the odds are set to give the billionaire the proper distribution of bets that guarantees that they make money- so it is essentially a crowd sourced opinion.  Not sure how much it means at this time of the year....

Helpful point. 

Offline RT

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2018, 10:44:19 AM »
.....Remember, the odds are set to give the billionaire the proper distribution of bets that guarantees that they make money- so it is essentially a crowd sourced opinion.  Not sure how much it means at this time of the year....

Helpful point.

That is a true statement....but doesn't tell the full story.

It is important for the line to be fairly accurate so not to end up with too much exposure on one side or the other. A casino isn't as concerned about the crowds opinion as much as it is with the wise guys opinions. The crowd isn't moving lines and creating exposure, the wise guys are. Like a lion sitting off a watering hole, the wise guy will wait and pounce on the weakest of lines.

This is from Allen Moody who is a longtime journalist who writes on legal gambling.

Many times you may hear that the point spread is designed to create a case where half of the bettors choose one team and the other half of the bettors make wagers on the other. That's close, but it's not entirely correct, as not all sports bettors wager the same amount. If a sportsbook receives 50 bets on the Lakers for $110 each but receives 50 bets on the Spurs for $330 each, the person creating the point spread (the oddsmaker) hasn't done a very good setting the point spread, even though the same number of bettors are betting on each team.

The sportsbooks are aware that the so-called wise guys (smart bettors) are going to wager more money on the average than a typical bettor, so the point spread is created with trying to beat the wise guys. If a sportsbook has the wise guys on one team and the general public betting on the other side, they typically will be rooting for the public, with the knowledge that the public bettors are more likely to give back their winnings on another game.

Offline Twain

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2018, 01:02:31 PM »
Interesting article on setting lines on individual games.  Good reading for a slow time of the year:

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

Lets hope that betting the favorite pays off this year.

« Last Edit: May 08, 2018, 01:03:15 PM by Twain »
"The trouble ain't that there are too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right."

Offline RT

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2018, 03:47:34 PM »

No, wait danno this cannot be right. I keep reading on this forum that the Packers are in a rebuild and yet Vegas thinks the Packers will win the division? Oh what does Vegas know, surely forum rebuild guys knows better than billionaire casino guys.  :D

I will take the bait.

The two concepts are not mutually exclusive.  The packers can be in a mini re-build and a Las Vegas sports book could currently have them slightly favored to win the division.  Remember, the odds are set to give the billionaire the proper distribution of bets that guarantees that they make money- so it is essentially a crowd sourced opinion.  Not sure how much it means at this time of the year.

I have to think that based on current rosters, the Vikings have the more proven team overall, and the questions are how much impact the Packers rookies can provide, how much the younger veterans can improve, how much Aaron Rodgers dominance can make up for other roster issues, and most importantly how healthy each team is over the course of the season.  As we packers fans know, a good roster can turn very bad with injuries at key positions.

Lol, no baiting intended Twain.

Agree with much of what you say, except mini rebuild is an oxymoron. If it is retooling a few positions, well that is not a mini rebuild, that is reloading. That is retooling. By definition the only thing that is a mini rebuild is the rebuilding of a Mini Cooper, that would be a mini rebuild. Sorry, but the Packers are not in a rebuild, mini or major.   

Offline Twain

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Re: Packers tabbed as slight favorites NFCN
« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2018, 04:47:15 PM »

Lol, no baiting intended Twain.

Agree with much of what you say, except mini rebuild is an oxymoron. If it is retooling a few positions, well that is not a mini rebuild, that is reloading. That is retooling. By definition the only thing that is a mini rebuild is the rebuilding of a Mini Cooper, that would be a mini rebuild. Sorry, but the Packers are not in a rebuild, mini or major.

I don't see it as an oxymoron.  The Packers have significant questions at multiple positions- WR with the loss of Jordy Nelson, RT with the uncertain status of Brian Bulaga, RG with promising but still uncertain young veterans, edge rusher having starters with significant injury issues, and corner with a couple of aging veterans and a bunch of talented but unproven young guys.

No matter what it is called, we are looking at playing a lot of new unproven talent at key positions, and as much as we see a bright future for them, there likely will be some growing pains for many of them this year.

With Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will always get the benefit of the doubt, but there is a significant amount of change going on, and the Las Vegas odds don't change that nor guarantee the teams success navigating the changes.
"The trouble ain't that there are too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right."