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General Category => Draft Talk => Topic started by: Noble Warrior on December 26, 2018, 11:11:58 PM

Title: 1st round favorites
Post by: Noble Warrior on December 26, 2018, 11:11:58 PM
 Of the players that might be there with the Packers first pick, my top two choices would be Devin White and Deionte Thompson. Pettine's pass rush is predicated more on bring pressure from the middle rather than the outside and White is an every down sideline to sideline inside backer who can rush the passer. The Packers are also in desperate need of a true free safety that can cover and bring the wood in the middle of the field. Thompson fits that description to a T. If we can't get him, picking Lukas Denis in the 2nd round is a must.
 The second pick in round one could go several different ways, i'm not sure there's a good offensive lineman that would be appropriate at this spot although Rodgers could certainly use some better protection. Could go DT, and there should be some good ones like Jerry Tillery, Dexter Lawrence, and Dre’Mont Jones (it's possible Raekwon Davis could fall to this spot). If we nabbed Thompson with the first selection, we could take inside backer Mack Wilson here. That would shore up the middle of the field. If this is the case where we get both the safety and the inside linebacker, we would be free to grab an OT like Andre Dillard in the 2nd. (3rd round we would have to hope a good outside rusher would fall or possibly trade up).
 This is also contingent on what happens in free agency.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on December 27, 2018, 01:23:08 AM
An interesting take, NW. Personally, assuming the value was there when the time came to pick, I'd go Edge, OT with the two round one picks (it could be the other way round as well), followed by safety and TE with the second and third picks (and in that order).
Whichever way round the first two picks are, getting someone like (edge) Ferrell, Zach Allen or Montez Sweat, along with (OT) Greg Little or Yodny Cajuste, would suit me fine. Follow that with a safety like Jaquan Johnson or Taylor Rapp or Lukas Dennis, and the best of the TEs left on the board that has enough speed go deep midfield.

I wouldn't touch ILB myself, I'd expect the trio of Martinez, Ryan and Burks to hold the fort there (two 4ths and a 3rd round draft pick is a solid investment there). The Packers haven't spent a high pick at ILB since A.J.Hawk, so unless Gute breaks away from that philosophy, it seems that they look for guys in the 3rd/4th area. I'd rather see a double-dip at safety or edge, than go ILB, but for preference the next two picks would be G and RB. As for a safety early, if the draft goes Deionte in the first round, I'm ok with that - it's not my ideal (as I think good safeties can be had in round two), but it's ok.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: Noble Warrior on December 27, 2018, 07:36:11 AM
Most safeties coming out of college anymore seem to work best near the line of scrimmage, essentially a strong safety, what we need is a free safety who has the ability to cover the back end, hence the two I mentioned.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: Shinesman on December 30, 2018, 04:29:32 PM

I wouldn't touch ILB myself, I'd expect the trio of Martinez, Ryan and Burks to hold the fort there (two 4ths and a 3rd round draft pick is a solid investment there). The Packers haven't spent a high pick at ILB since A.J.Hawk, so unless Gute breaks away from that philosophy, it seems that they look for guys in the 3rd/4th area. I'd rather see a double-dip at safety or edge, than go ILB, but for preference the next two picks would be G and RB. As for a safety early, if the draft goes Deionte in the first round, I'm ok with that - it's not my ideal (as I think good safeties can be had in round two), but it's ok.

And that's why the ILB position is one of the worst groups on the team. They arent quick, cant play coverage, and dont scare anybody.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: packdaddy on December 30, 2018, 04:49:42 PM
Most safeties coming out of college anymore seem to work best near the line of scrimmage, essentially a strong safety, what we need is a free safety who has the ability to cover the back end, hence the two I mentioned.

Juan Thornhill, Virginia.  Best coverage safety in the draft IMO.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: ricky on December 30, 2018, 07:27:04 PM
Two obvious elephants in the room have to be addressed. First, free agency takes place before the draft. If the Packers sign a safety (I think this is highly likely), will they draft another one early? And second, what if the new coach doesn't keep Pettine around? Then the new DC might have entirely different needs/wants for his scheme.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: BartyorBarrySmith on December 30, 2018, 07:51:27 PM
Percentages say we'll see new coordinators but no matter the scheme they need a safety.  I wonder if they'll be tempted to move Matthews inside....with so many holes holding on to a fair player like Matthews at the right price means you can focus on greater needs. 
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on January 01, 2019, 12:20:57 PM

I wouldn't touch ILB myself, I'd expect the trio of Martinez, Ryan and Burks to hold the fort there (two 4ths and a 3rd round draft pick is a solid investment there). The Packers haven't spent a high pick at ILB since A.J.Hawk, so unless Gute breaks away from that philosophy, it seems that they look for guys in the 3rd/4th area. I'd rather see a double-dip at safety or edge, than go ILB, but for preference the next two picks would be G and RB. As for a safety early, if the draft goes Deionte in the first round, I'm ok with that - it's not my ideal (as I think good safeties can be had in round two), but it's ok.

And that's why the ILB position is one of the worst groups on the team. They arent quick, cant play coverage, and dont scare anybody.

Ryan Burks, Martinez and maybe Josh Jones in the future at ILB. Not world beaters, i'll admit, but far from one of the worst units. WRs are worse (but with lots of rookie potential to get better already on the roster. TE is much worse, aging and unproductive. Possible backup in Tonyan. The 'rentals are probably largely gone in 2019, with Graham lasting until the end of that year, due to cap constraints. OLB is pretty dire with aging and injured guys and only Fackrell looking like anything behind them. At safety we have nothing. It doesn't look like we have two credible guards either, will need at least one urgently.

I'd prefer that before the Packers go ILB, they would acquire an OLB (possibly twice),  safety twice (both draft and vet FA), TE, OG, RB, DL, even WR (vet FA).
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: dannobanano on January 01, 2019, 01:48:06 PM
Of the players that might be there with the Packers first pick, my top two choices would be Devin White and Deionte Thompson. Pettine's pass rush is predicated more on bring pressure from the middle rather than the outside and White is an every down sideline to sideline inside backer who can rush the passer. The Packers are also in desperate need of a true free safety that can cover and bring the wood in the middle of the field. Thompson fits that description to a T. If we can't get him, picking Lukas Denis in the 2nd round is a must.
 The second pick in round one could go several different ways, i'm not sure there's a good offensive lineman that would be appropriate at this spot although Rodgers could certainly use some better protection. Could go DT, and there should be some good ones like Jerry Tillery, Dexter Lawrence, and Dre’Mont Jones (it's possible Raekwon Davis could fall to this spot). If we nabbed Thompson with the first selection, we could take inside backer Mack Wilson here. That would shore up the middle of the field. If this is the case where we get both the safety and the inside linebacker, we would be free to grab an OT like Andre Dillard in the 2nd. (3rd round we would have to hope a good outside rusher would fall or possibly trade up).
 This is also contingent on what happens in free agency.

True, BUT.......................Pettine prefers that pressure come from interior DL and not the ILB

One of the 1st round picks needs to be a DL, and I like Zach Allen/Boston College. He had 61 total tackles in 2018 along with 14.5 TFL's, 7 sacks, 7 batted passes, and 1 FF. All while being double teamed almost down in and down out. In 2017 he had 100 total tackles (unreal number for a DL) along with 15.5 TFL's, 6 sacks, and 3 batted passes. He is a strong run defender and disruptive pass rusher.

Also, I feel either 1st or 2nd round has to be OL. Rebuilding the OL will go a long way to an improved Aaron Rodgers.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: ricky on January 01, 2019, 04:03:47 PM
True, BUT.......................Pettine prefers that pressure come from interior DL and not the ILB

True, BUT.......................Pettine is unlikely to be retained as DC by the new coach, unless it's Philbin. Or unless the new HC is told that Pettine is his DC, end of story. The latter two are very unlikely. So it is likely there will be a new DC, a new scheme, and therefore different needs in FA and the draft.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: dannobanano on January 01, 2019, 07:08:38 PM
Ya! I get that ricky.

I was responding to NW’s post where he was assuming Pettiness defense might still be in play next year.

I think we all realize that it’s obvious everything can change depending on who gets chosen as the next HC.

Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: footballdad on January 02, 2019, 02:49:11 AM
After watching the bowl games yesterday, the one guy who really impressed me was T.J. Hockenson - TE from Iowa.  Simmons, Sweat, White, all appeared as advertised.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: BartyorBarrySmith on January 05, 2019, 12:38:59 PM
After watching the bowl games yesterday, the one guy who really impressed me was T.J. Hockenson - TE from Iowa.  Simmons, Sweat, White, all appeared as advertised.

Don't know if he can block but Fant also from Iowa seems to always be open and running away from everyone.  At times it seemed like Iowa didn't know he was on the team.  I'd say he's a player who might have hurt himself by not playing in their bowl game.  Just a few too many questions about him -- can he block? why did he sit so much?  Those can snowball for a player and, while its no deal to not play in a bowl game, he might a player who didn't need to add anything to his question marks tally.  Packers might have too many holes to fill to take a tightend at the end of the first but his speed would be a weapon that Packers could use. 
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on January 05, 2019, 03:43:29 PM
True, BUT.......................Pettine prefers that pressure come from interior DL and not the ILB

True, BUT.......................Pettine is unlikely to be retained as DC by the new coach, unless it's Philbin. Or unless the new HC is told that Pettine is his DC, end of story. The latter two are very unlikely. So it is likely there will be a new DC, a new scheme, and therefore different needs in FA and the draft.

Why do you think Pettine is probably gone, ricky ? I think that even if a new HC is NOT told he must retain Pettine (which IS possible, but less than 50/50 chance), he may well choose to keep the guy. I think the odds are the new HC's background is offense (like Holmgren and McCarthy), so he may well keep Pettine out of choice. How many DCs out there and available, that would be better ? I don't want to see the Packers lose Campen, Whitt or Pettine.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: Shinesman on January 05, 2019, 05:40:19 PM

I wouldn't touch ILB myself, I'd expect the trio of Martinez, Ryan and Burks to hold the fort there (two 4ths and a 3rd round draft pick is a solid investment there). The Packers haven't spent a high pick at ILB since A.J.Hawk, so unless Gute breaks away from that philosophy, it seems that they look for guys in the 3rd/4th area. I'd rather see a double-dip at safety or edge, than go ILB, but for preference the next two picks would be G and RB. As for a safety early, if the draft goes Deionte in the first round, I'm ok with that - it's not my ideal (as I think good safeties can be had in round two), but it's ok.

And that's why the ILB position is one of the worst groups on the team. They arent quick, cant play coverage, and dont scare anybody.

Ryan Burks, Martinez and maybe Josh Jones in the future at ILB. Not world beaters, i'll admit, but far from one of the worst units. WRs are worse (but with lots of rookie potential to get better already on the roster. TE is much worse, aging and unproductive. Possible backup in Tonyan. The 'rentals are probably largely gone in 2019, with Graham lasting until the end of that year, due to cap constraints. OLB is pretty dire with aging and injured guys and only Fackrell looking like anything behind them. At safety we have nothing. It doesn't look like we have two credible guards either, will need at least one urgently.

I'd prefer that before the Packers go ILB, they would acquire an OLB (possibly twice),  safety twice (both draft and vet FA), TE, OG, RB, DL, even WR (vet FA).

The key to a 3-4 is ILB who are fast and can attack the ball carrier after the line eats up the blocks. If you have average to slow ILBs your defense is going to suck. ILB & EDGE position was ignored by TT for years in favor of fixing the backend. The backend wasnt even broken, it just never had a front end that could get home. And the problem persists because they keep ignoring the positions of need.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on January 06, 2019, 10:21:19 AM
The key to a 3-4 is ILB who are fast and can attack the ball carrier after the line eats up the blocks. If you have average to slow ILBs your defense is going to suck. ILB & EDGE position was ignored by TT for years in favor of fixing the backend. The backend wasnt even broken, it just never had a front end that could get home. And the problem persists because they keep ignoring the positions of need.

The Packers are a long, long way from having ignored the ILB position. From 2015 to 2018 the got Ryan (4th), then Martinez (4th), then Josh Jones (hybrid ILB/S, 2nd), then Oren Burks (3rd). This is a substantial investment.

You want Reuben Foster ? He lasted one year with the 49ers. You want Vander Esch or Rashaan Evans, you have to give up Jaire Alexander to do it and have ZERO at CB. It's not that the Packers haven't invested regularly at ILB in recent years, it's that you wanted an elite ILB and the Packers don't want to pay that much for one, just like they don't pay first or second rounders to draft guards.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: TAYLORBOY on January 07, 2019, 12:46:09 PM
The key to a 3-4 is ILB who are fast and can attack the ball carrier after the line eats up the blocks. If you have average to slow ILBs your defense is going to suck. ILB & EDGE position was ignored by TT for years in favor of fixing the backend. The backend wasnt even broken, it just never had a front end that could get home. And the problem persists because they keep ignoring the positions of need.

The Packers are a long, long way from having ignored the ILB position. From 2015 to 2018 the got Ryan (4th), then Martinez (4th), then Josh Jones (hybrid ILB/S, 2nd), then Oren Burks (3rd). This is a substantial investment.

You want Reuben Foster ? He lasted one year with the 49ers. You want Vander Esch or Rashaan Evans, you have to give up Jaire Alexander to do it and have ZERO at CB. It's not that the Packers haven't invested regularly at ILB in recent years, it's that you wanted an elite ILB and the Packers don't want to pay that much for one, just like they don't pay first or second rounders to draft guards.

Maybe that unwillingness to draft ILB or OG by TT/M3 is why we are having these difficulties..

Show me a team that has a GOOD defense and they will have GOOD ILB ...some even 2

M3 always touted a good running game but he never really used the RB much..He never involved the RB in the passing game but played the better pass blocker...Williams over Jones

They never drafted true OG but OT's because they wanted better pass blockers...….that I think tells me they wanted a passing team
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: Shinesman on January 08, 2019, 07:16:47 PM
The key to a 3-4 is ILB who are fast and can attack the ball carrier after the line eats up the blocks. If you have average to slow ILBs your defense is going to suck. ILB & EDGE position was ignored by TT for years in favor of fixing the backend. The backend wasnt even broken, it just never had a front end that could get home. And the problem persists because they keep ignoring the positions of need.

The Packers are a long, long way from having ignored the ILB position. From 2015 to 2018 the got Ryan (4th), then Martinez (4th), then Josh Jones (hybrid ILB/S, 2nd), then Oren Burks (3rd). This is a substantial investment.

You want Reuben Foster ? He lasted one year with the 49ers. You want Vander Esch or Rashaan Evans, you have to give up Jaire Alexander to do it and have ZERO at CB. It's not that the Packers haven't invested regularly at ILB in recent years, it's that you wanted an elite ILB and the Packers don't want to pay that much for one, just like they don't pay first or second rounders to draft guards.


Exactly, you get what you pay for. Sure, you may find the next Teddy Bruschi, but it doesn't happen very often. The top LBs in this league were drafted high and are paid well, because as much as folks want to believe in TTs philosophy that they didnt matter, they are the key piece in the defense.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: WTX_Cheese on January 10, 2019, 02:24:14 PM
I think pretty much any position is up for grabs in the first round with the exception of maybe QB and Center. My gut says we'll take Defense with the first pick and Offense with the second pick. If I'm going to have a "preference", I'm all about PASS RUSH, PASS RUSH, PASS RUSH, whether it's from a Linebacker or the Defensive Line. Second option would be an upgrade at O-Line, preferably a Guard or Tackle.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: footballdad on January 15, 2019, 02:35:38 AM
Honestly at #12 I like Devin White. 
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: #66 on January 15, 2019, 04:07:57 PM
Devin White is a beast at ILB as others have noted.  Pettine's D relies more upon ILB than the Capers led defense.  Pettine's D has always functioned best in the middle of the field when he has a true "chase" ILB that can go sideline to sideline with speed.  I would be interested to know the plan for Burks and if there is an expectation that he can make that jump in year 2.  THAT would be the dream scenario.  I do not think that Ryan will be back as he was slower before the injury and would probably be looking for a multi-year deal, not sure if he can get that right now.

This MUST be an impact draft.  There will available DL/Edge players at both of the top 2 picks.  OL is not a position of strength in this draft.  It would be amazing if GB could find an impact DL/Edge AND fix the OL in the first round and have a draft with a similar impact as NO's draft of a couple years ago. 

At DL/Edge I currently like:
Allen
Polite
Ferrel
Sweat

At OL I like:
Taylor
Little
Williams

GB might rely more on scheme and less on this year's draft for improvement at WR.  I would look for a TE to be drafted as they are difficult to develop, this draft has a few, and GB is probably really looking for that SB run 2-3 years from now which would give time for development.  Safety could definitely be addressed in FA as there are candidates and the market is soft.  There is the possibility for a steal at S.  The other possibilities are moving Jackson (I am curious if there has been talk of this) and I would keep Williams at Safety as he is a versatile veteran.
Title: Re: 1st round favorites
Post by: Shinesman on January 17, 2019, 09:38:28 PM
Honestly at #12 I like Devin White.

Couldn't agree more