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General Category => Draft Talk => Topic started by: marklawrence on March 18, 2019, 05:59:09 AM

Title: Packers draft strategy
Post by: marklawrence on March 18, 2019, 05:59:09 AM
We just signed two pass rushers, in a year where the draft is packed with them. You have to believe this means gute doesn't want to take a pass rusher with his two firsts.

I doubt there's an offensive player worth the 12th pick.

So I think these signings indicate gute wants to move in the draft, maybe up, maybe down, that part I don't see. You would move up for a qb or a pass rusher.  You would move down if you think your roster needs a serious injection of new talent. I don't see a qb worth moving up, and we just got shiny new pass rushers. So I think we're moving down.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: Hands on March 18, 2019, 07:30:19 AM
Unlike previous years, Green Bay only has to worry about 11 guys before they pick. I think, not 100% sure, that they must figure two maybe three QBs go before their pick. That leaves 10 players off the board that they figure won't be there. That leaves a lot of potential for Gutsy to think about. Will he move or take that player he's wanted but never thought he could get?

Like you wonder how the draft will fall for Green Bay after FA, I guess we will find out. I think if a player is an edge rusher and falls to 12, he would still pull that trigger for the right guy. I have no idea who it will be.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: Shinesman on March 18, 2019, 10:08:31 AM
Unlike previous years, Green Bay only has to worry about 11 guys before they pick. I think, not 100% sure, that they must figure two maybe three QBs go before their pick. That leaves 10 players off the board that they figure won't be there. That leaves a lot of potential for Gutsy to think about. Will he move or take that player he's wanted but never thought he could get?

Like you wonder how the draft will fall for Green Bay after FA, I guess we will find out. I think if a player is an edge rusher and falls to 12, he would still pull that trigger for the right guy. I have no idea who it will be.

So I think you may see him move up for Josh Allen if he falls past 5 or 6. Other than that, he could stay put and take a rusher, just not one of the top two outside rushers. He also could look into DK Metcalf at 12 or trade back a few spots and get him. He needs a little polish, but he is instantly an upgrade over every WR not named Adam's.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: morango on March 19, 2019, 04:07:55 PM
We just signed two pass rushers, in a year where the draft is packed with them. You have to believe this means gute doesn't want to take a pass rusher with his two firsts.

I doubt there's an offensive player worth the 12th pick.

So I think these signings indicate gute wants to move in the draft, maybe up, maybe down, that part I don't see. You would move up for a qb or a pass rusher.  You would move down if you think your roster needs a serious injection of new talent. I don't see a qb worth moving up, and we just got shiny new pass rushers. So I think we're moving down.

Mark - I agree with you this is the perfect year to explore trading down. Would be great to move back 4 - 6 spots and get another 3rd rounder OR possible a 2nd rounder next year (always great to pay that draft capital forward).
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: packlaw on March 19, 2019, 04:21:40 PM
In playing with the various simulators, it interesting to see who is at 12 with the different boards. The top edge rushers are gone.  If the Packs top priorities are safety and tight end, the end of the first round and the second would produce good choices. Thus, if we traded down we would still have 2 in the first to get a safety and tight end while acquiring another second or third giving us 5 quality picks in three rounds with 2 more in the fourth without giving up any thing in return.  Don't know the Pack's  plans or who they want; but a trade down sounds like the best choice if we can find a willing partner.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on March 19, 2019, 05:28:29 PM
We just signed two pass rushers, in a year where the draft is packed with them. You have to believe this means gute doesn't want to take a pass rusher with his two firsts.

I doubt there's an offensive player worth the 12th pick.

So I think these signings indicate Gute wants to move in the draft, maybe up, maybe down, that part I don't see. You would move up for a qb or a pass rusher.  You would move down if you think your roster needs a serious injection of new talent. I don't see a qb worth moving up, and we just got shiny new pass rushers. So I think we're moving down.

Za'Darius Smith is likely to move inside on 3rd downs. It makes sense to draft a high-quality pass rusher to allow some more exotic packages, not to mention allowing a better rotation to keep the guys fresh and better insurance against injury. It's darn hard work manning up against 320lb behemoths. In the last couple of years CM3 saw far too many snaps, so maybe Gute has learned from that. I still believe the value at #12 will be DL and Edge. Oliver, Gary, Wilkins, Ferrell, Burns, Sweat.

I'm guessing the first 11 picks features 2x QBs, 1x OT, 1x CB, 1x WR, 2x Edge, 1x ILB, 1-2 DL leaving most of the guys I mentioned earlier as possibilities. Some fans have the Packers taking TE Hockenson at #12, but I think he's trending towards being overvalued at this time. OT Dillard or Taylor are also possible and may or may not be a (small) reach on the Packers board. I'm also in the camp that doesn't see a trade up at #12 (though if a premium player drops..........never say never) and agree a trade down is more likely than up. My most-likely scenario is still that they stay put.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: ThatGuy284 on March 19, 2019, 08:28:45 PM
Of the 12 teams in the Playoffs last year 9 were in the top 11 in scoring offenses.   The remaining 3 were the Ravens #13, Eagles #18, Cowboys #22.   The highest ranked offense to not make the Playoffs were the Steelers, who were tied for #6 and would have been the next AFC team to qualify at 9-6-1.

The top 4 teams in scoring were the Chiefs #1, Saints #2, Rams #3, Patriots #4 -- the last four teams in the Playoffs. 

Of the 12 teams in the Playoffs last year 9 had defenses in the top 12 in points against.   The Chiefs, Rams and Saints were the exceptions

Chiefs - #24 pts/gm against  #31 yds/gm against  //  Rams #20 pts  #19 yds //  Saints  #14 pts #14 yds  //  Patriots #7 pts against #21 yds against


I recognize one year doesn't make a trend and I haven't looked at any previous seasons to see offensive/defensive rankings - but I did find it interesting that of the final four only the Patriots had a defense ranked appreciably above average and they were one Dee Ford offside call away from being eliminated by one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

At least in 2018 offense wins and may be some consideration for devoting some serious draft capital to beefing up the offensive line and providing additional playmakers for Rodgers.  Maybe another argument for one of the Iowa TE's at #12 (since I don't believe for a second either will be available at #30)





Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: RT on April 11, 2019, 11:44:23 AM
The Jets are reportedly shopping the 3rd overall pick in the draft hard, they do not have a 2nd round pick this year and Tony Pauline is reporting they would like to trade back and pickup as much draft capital as possible.

My question here is, I wonder if the Jets would take the discount and trade the 3rd overall (2200 points) for the Packers 12th (1200) and 30th (620). If they are on the clock and their are no other offers, would they except that big of a lose value wise? For the Packers to want to do this I would guess Quinnen Williams would still need to be on the board, but if Arizona takes Murray and SF takes Bosa it would leave Williams available. I feel that Williams is probably the top player on the Packers board, so if the end result of last years trade was that it allowed the Packers to draft their top player in the draft I believe that would be a nice windfall. I am normally deeply opposed to trading up, but this is one scenario I think I would support fully.       
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: packlaw on April 11, 2019, 12:50:10 PM
Last year Gute made moves in the draft based on us being considered a playoff team.  That is not the case this year.  There is no player in the top five or  six in the draft that will lead the Pack to the playoffs.  Our need now is to obtain as many quality players we can.  I think the moves will be down a few spots in the draft.  If we obtain an additional 2nd or 3rd Rounder, we would have 5 players in the top 95 and 7 in the top 118.  As Graham will be given all the chances in the world to shine, a drafted tight end, no matter how praised, will be used sparingly.  If we move down,  we can still obtain a really good OL, ILB, WR  and still draft Fant or Hockenson according many mocks at 30. With a safety in round 2 and there will be plenty, the rest of the draft can be used to upgrade positions in need of quality depth. 
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: Hands on April 12, 2019, 08:51:00 AM
The Jets are reportedly shopping the 3rd overall pick in the draft hard, they do not have a 2nd round pick this year and Tony Pauline is reporting they would like to trade back and pickup as much draft capital as possible.

My question here is, I wonder if the Jets would take the discount and trade the 3rd overall (2200 points) for the Packers 12th (1200) and 30th (620). If they are on the clock and their are no other offers, would they except that big of a lose value wise? For the Packers to want to do this I would guess Quinnen Williams would still need to be on the board, but if Arizona takes Murray and SF takes Bosa it would leave Williams available. I feel that Williams is probably the top player on the Packers board, so if the end result of last years trade was that it allowed the Packers to draft their top player in the draft I believe that would be a nice windfall. I am normally deeply opposed to trading up, but this is one scenario I think I would support fully.     
Could well happen RT...as you say if their pick comes up and willing to do a 1st and 30th because they have no other offer it would be great for Green Bay. The best player in the draft, yes Gutsy would do it. Would give the Jets two picks verses just 1, they win with their fans as well.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: RT on April 12, 2019, 09:06:58 AM
The Jets are reportedly shopping the 3rd overall pick in the draft hard, they do not have a 2nd round pick this year and Tony Pauline is reporting they would like to trade back and pickup as much draft capital as possible.

My question here is, I wonder if the Jets would take the discount and trade the 3rd overall (2200 points) for the Packers 12th (1200) and 30th (620). If they are on the clock and their are no other offers, would they except that big of a lose value wise? For the Packers to want to do this I would guess Quinnen Williams would still need to be on the board, but if Arizona takes Murray and SF takes Bosa it would leave Williams available. I feel that Williams is probably the top player on the Packers board, so if the end result of last years trade was that it allowed the Packers to draft their top player in the draft I believe that would be a nice windfall. I am normally deeply opposed to trading up, but this is one scenario I think I would support fully.     
Could well happen RT...as you say if their pick comes up and willing to do a 1st and 30th because they have no other offer it would be great for Green Bay. The best player in the draft, yes Gutsy would do it. Would give the Jets two picks verses just 1, they win with their fans as well.

To land the top rated player in the draft on the first day and give up zero draft capital for days 2 and 3, still having 8 picks in rounds 2-7 would be an unbelievable haul for GB. IMO. I agree, I don't believe Gutes would take more than a second to think about pulling the trigger on that deal. One of many things to watch and see how they end up developing.     
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: RT on April 16, 2019, 07:14:47 AM
John Dorsey said at his press conference that they are looking at moving up into the first round if "if you think the player can help you, you go up and do it". With all the GB connections there and GB having a second 1st round pick at 30th that might be their first option to trade up.

Cleveland's current picks of 49th overall (410), 80th overall (190) and 170th overall (23) add up to 623 points. The Packers first round pick that is 30th overall is equal to 620 points. If the Browns come calling with their offer of a 2nd, 3rd and 5th round picks for the 30th pick are the Packers making that deal?
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: The GM on April 16, 2019, 07:58:51 AM
John Dorsey said at his press conference that they are looking at moving up into the first round if "if you think the player can help you, you go up and do it". With all the GB connections there and GB having a second 1st round pick at 30th that might be their first option to trade up.

Cleveland's current picks of 49th overall (410), 80th overall (190) and 170th overall (23) add up to 623 points. The Packers first round pick that is 30th overall is equal to 620 points. If the Browns come calling with their offer of a 2nd, 3rd and 5th round picks for the 30th pick are the Packers making that deal?

Unless the Packers have their surefire guy on the board at 30.  Yes, they could use some of that ammo to move up into the early 2nd round (a few spots after 30), pick up a guy they want and still have something left from the trade.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: Hands on April 16, 2019, 08:02:30 AM
I watched Draft Day last night....anything is possible.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: RT on April 16, 2019, 08:10:36 AM
I watched Draft Day last night....anything is possible.

And Kevin Costner works for the Browns.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: dannobanano on April 16, 2019, 02:04:20 PM
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Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: PackerJoe on April 18, 2019, 08:11:59 AM
Maybe I'm all wrong here. What if the Packers drafted a offensive tackle at 12 and then moved up from our second pick in the 1st rd to draft Cody Ford, offensive guard?  How's that for a shock?  I've been thinking defense all along with the first three picks.  I really like the Big ten OL (Jordan, McGovern), maybe the brass feels like defense will come in rds 2-5.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: Hands on April 18, 2019, 01:04:03 PM
It appears that the grades of players at the lower part of 1st round aren't a lot different then the first two thirds of the second round. Wouldn't be shocked if Gutsy trades that #30 pick and grabs some additional picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I also think maybe OT at 12 and another offensive weapon with their 2nd pick wherever/whenever it is, like a TE/RB/WR.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: WTX_Cheese on April 19, 2019, 01:41:07 PM
These are just my opinions/opinings:

I'm not sure how Gutey feels about the pass rush we currently have. Obviously, the two Smiths were meant to be "The guys" this season and hopefully beyond. I'm not exactly comfortable with Fackrell as EDGE 3, I'd like to see another guy (maybe round 2-3) there to at least push or usurp him. My worry is that Oliver, Allen, Bosa & Burns will all be gone by the time we get to 12. If he really, really loves one of those guys, I think he'll be working the phones pretty hard to grab one. I've been really pleased with the way Gutey has addressed the pass rush so far.

Of course, there's a chance one of those pass rushers will fall into our laps (I mean, Derwin James dropped in our laps last year!) but if it doesn't work out, I keep getting the vibe that Gutey is also looking to re-vamp the O-Line. I wouldn't be surprised if he grabbed Jawaan Taylor (OT - Florida) if he dropped. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Bulaga fan, but he hasn't been able to stay on the field. I genuinely don't expect anything less than 2 OL drafted by the end of next weekend.

I'm really interested to see how we address the Linebacker position. Martinez and Burks are already locked in, but I wonder if Josh Jones is going to play more sub linebacker? Considering that we only have one and a half offseasons to go off of, I wonder how Gutey values the two Devins (White and Bush)?

Another few interesting spots to look at are RB and WR. Gutey went pretty heavy on BIG receivers last year and I don't think he'll be hasty in letting those guys develop, but the depth in this year's draft seems really good. I think the rumors of taking one in the 1st or 2nd round are just smoke, personally. As for RB, I think Gutey isn't overly confident in what we have. Don't get me wrong, Aaron Jones has been criminally under-used, but if they're really going to commit to the run, I think it makes sense to get a guy that has comparable ability to Jones. (Hey, I'm also a fan of Jamaal Williams)

Gutey, for the love of Lombardi, find a way to land TJ Hockenson. He really seems to fit what Lafleur wants to do at Tight End.

I feel pretty strongly that we absolutely have to land a coverage Safety in the first 3 rounds. Personally, I like this year's crop of Gardner-Johnson, Thornhill, and Hooker.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: dannobanano on April 20, 2019, 06:28:02 AM
Interesting article on possible Achilles Heel for potential targets at #12.

Interesting that the writer states that Hockenson may be the safest pick of the bunch, but his AH may be he may be near his ceiling.

Reminds me a little bit of when TT drafted Hawk at #5.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/04/19/breaking-down-the-achilles-heel-of-potential-packers-targets-at-no-12/
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: The GM on April 20, 2019, 03:39:40 PM
Keep an eye on Seattle's pick at #21.  If Gute wants to come up a little earlier in the first round, Seattle is looking to gather some pick(s) (they only have 4).  #21 might be an ideal spot for Gute to get someone he wants. 
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: dannobanano on April 20, 2019, 04:08:49 PM
Keep an eye on Seattle's pick at #21.  If Gute wants to come up a little earlier in the first round, Seattle is looking to gather some pick(s) (they only have 4).  #21 might be an ideal spot for Gute to get someone he wants.

I saw that idea floated at the nflspinezone.

https://nflspinzone.com/2019/04/20/green-bay-packers-nfl-mock-draft-2019-trades-realistic/3/

Packers get #21 and give SEA #30, #114, and #185.

Not sure I'm a fan of that................but, it depends on who's there at #21.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: RT on April 20, 2019, 04:23:30 PM
Keep an eye on Seattle's pick at #21.  If Gute wants to come up a little earlier in the first round, Seattle is looking to gather some pick(s) (they only have 4).  #21 might be an ideal spot for Gute to get someone he wants.

I saw that idea floated at the nflspinezone.

https://nflspinzone.com/2019/04/20/green-bay-packers-nfl-mock-draft-2019-trades-realistic/3/

Packers get #21 and give SEA #30, #114, and #185.

Not sure I'm a fan of that................but, it depends on who's there at #21.

I'm going to be the wet blanket here. GB and Seattle made a deal in the 1st round a year ago and the trade was worked out almost to a point of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. The parameters of a trade have been set for the most part, trading 30, 114 and 185 for 21 is not even close to actual value. 

Possible Seattle-GB trade

Seattle picks #21=800, #124=48, total points 848

GB picks #30=620, #75=215, #194=13.4, total points 848.4     
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: The GM on April 20, 2019, 04:53:18 PM
Keep an eye on Seattle's pick at #21.  If Gute wants to come up a little earlier in the first round, Seattle is looking to gather some pick(s) (they only have 4).  #21 might be an ideal spot for Gute to get someone he wants. 

I saw that idea floated at the nflspinezone.

https://nflspinzone.com/2019/04/20/green-bay-packers-nfl-mock-draft-2019-trades-realistic/3/

Packers get #21 and give SEA #30, #114, and #185.

Not sure I'm a fan of that................but, it depends on who's there at #21.

I going to be the wet blanket here. GB and Seattle made a deal in the 1st round a year ago and the trade was worked out almost to a point of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. The parameters of a trade have been set for the most part, trading 30, 114 and 185 for 21 is not even close to actual value.   

I hadnt seen the spinzone article.  Just knew the Seachickens were looking to possibly move back.  Danno's post was the first Id seen with possible trade parameters.  Id be surprised if Schneider stays put at 21, not sure if it will be GB, but he needs picks.

The Jets and Bills are reportedly interested in Frank Clark, maybe Schneider gets some picks there?
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: Shinesman on April 20, 2019, 10:33:15 PM
As long as we dont draft  CB or QB in the first two rounds I'll be ok. I'd prefer some ILB with sideline to sideline ability or an offensive weapon, but we will see what happens.
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: The GM on April 21, 2019, 06:34:01 AM
As long as we dont draft  CB or QB in the first two rounds I'll be ok. I'd prefer some ILB with sideline to sideline ability or an offensive weapon, but we will see what happens.

I wouldnt be opposed to a QB or CB, if the talent is there. 
Title: Re: Packers draft strategy
Post by: RT on April 21, 2019, 07:59:11 AM
As long as we dont draft  CB or QB in the first two rounds I'll be ok. I'd prefer some ILB with sideline to sideline ability or an offensive weapon, but we will see what happens.

I wouldnt be opposed to a QB or CB, if the talent is there.

If the best talent on their board is a QB or CB they will draft them and that is what they should do. Fans convince themselves though the process that the Packers need players at certain positions and then are disappointed if someone is drafted other than their believed perceived need. The Packers have zero needs going into the draft, they have some wants only. They can draft the player that they believe is the best player at every pick in the draft, their are no positional limitations.