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General Category => Green Bay Packers News Talk => Topic started by: mancl on April 29, 2019, 12:10:19 PM

Title: Trade Daniels?
Post by: mancl on April 29, 2019, 12:10:19 PM
Silverstein has an interesting column suggesting it might be time for the Packers to move on from Mike Daniels, citing the following reasons.

# The Packers have a profile of what they like in the D line- length, long arms and versatility. Daniels doesn't meet any of those criteria.

# Even if he stays he will have his snaps decreased, something he won't be happy with in a contract year.

# They are unlikely to retain him this year so they should try to get something for him like they did with HHCD

# Trading him for a pick saves $ 8 million. 
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: ricky on April 29, 2019, 03:21:06 PM
We had a similar discussion about trading Daniels, but with the addition of Graham. The biggest argument for not trading Daniels was, as noted, he is a FA next year. So, if the team can get a decent draft choice for him during the season, and if the other players in the rotation are playing well, and if no one is injured for an extended time, and if the Packers feel that Daniels is expendable, sure. But notice, there are a lot of "ifs". It would not be a matter of how high the pick, since something good is always better than nothing. BUT, if the Packers are in the hunt for a really good season, then definitely not. Because Daniels is a proven player and apparently a good locker room presence.

To try to reinforce my point about not getting rid of someone who is proven until the dust has settled, an excerpt from CheeseheadTV:

#150: Kingsley Keke, DT, Texas A&M
A strength is a strength until it's not. The Packers interior defensive line looks really good right now. Behind the two obvious stars - Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels - the Packers boast guys like Montravius Adams and Tyler Lancaster. Both Adams and Lancaster are still unproven, but have certainly showed what they're capable of. That's without even mentioning Fadol Brown, who looked pretty good in limited time last season.

But 2019 is Daniels' last year under contract, Kenny Clark is going to need a massive extension within the next couple years, and the combination of Adams/Lancaster/Brown could just as easily bust as break-out.

Keke is pretty raw, but has a pretty impressive skillset. If he can learn for a year behind Clark and Daniels before being pulled into regular duty, he could be a starter and difference-maker in 2020.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: dannobanano on April 29, 2019, 07:03:18 PM
Here's an excerpt from Silverstein article:

"There just aren’t enough snaps to go around and someone is going to get cheated.
It can’t be Clark, whose trajectory is pointed toward stardom. It can’t be either of the Smiths, both of whom were paid a handsome sum to play multiple positions across the line of scrimmage, including defensive tackle in the nickel package, a spot where Daniels has seen most of his action.

Over the past two seasons, Daniels, 29, has been an active pass rusher, although he should have more than seven sacks for the number of times he has been around the quarterback. He fashions himself as someone who can be featured all over the defensive front and play regularly in the base 3-4 front, but he’s mostly a pass rusher.
His strength is his bull rush and there are too many times he gets away from it, thinking he can do anything a long-levered, quick-twitch insider rusher can do. He plays with fire in his belly, but when it comes to being a leader veterans such as Muhammad Wilkerson, Ricky Jean Francois and Quinton Dial have filled that void more than he has."

Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: ricky on April 29, 2019, 09:14:52 PM
danno, thanks for the input. But, wouldn't it be nice to have vets ready to go in case of an injury, rather than hoping someone finally "has the light go on/puts it all together"? Definitely, it seems he will be gone next year. And there is always the chance of the Packers getting a decent draft pick for Daniels once the season starts. I'm not totally against the idea; I just would rather have him around "just in case". 
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on April 30, 2019, 02:52:00 AM
I can't see much interest as his contract runs out this year. Teams will wait to see if he is signed to a new contract, or allowed to reach FA.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: TAYLORBOY on April 30, 2019, 03:36:44 PM
maybe it might be best to do a HaHa...some injuries during the yr could place a premium on Daniels for a DP
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: #66 on April 30, 2019, 04:19:42 PM
I can't see much interest as his contract runs out this year. Teams will wait to see if he is signed to a new contract, or allowed to reach FA.
The team may view his FA as a plus as they could also be trading for a compensatory pick.  Word is that this factored into Philly trading for Jordan Howard.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: ricky on April 30, 2019, 05:24:47 PM
maybe it might be best to do a HaHa...some injuries during the yr could place a premium on Daniels for a DP

Exactly my thought. If the team is seriously contending and Daniels is an integral part of the success of the defense, which could well occur in a contract year, he would be more valuable. Either to the Packers, or as a possible trade. Either way, what's the hurry? Let the situation come to you.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: dannobanano on April 30, 2019, 06:15:38 PM
maybe it might be best to do a HaHa...some injuries during the yr could place a premium on Daniels for a DP

Exactly my thought. If the team is seriously contending and Daniels is an integral part of the success of the defense, which could well occur in a contract year, he would be more valuable. Either to the Packers, or as a possible trade. Either way, what's the hurry? Let the situation come to you.

I understand the logic.

But, here's a counterpoint.

If the Packers happened to have an opportunity to trade him now (or in the near future), and pass on that opportunity there is no way to predict if Daniels might have a trade market at a later date, and before the trading deadline in season. The second part to that is that he could get injured again between now and then and would then have no trade value whatsoever.

Also, all things being equal, if Gute & Co. feel that the younger guys may play as well as Daniels this season, would it be prudent to be releasing a younger player with "expected" more upside just to keep that aging veteran who is nearly 100% likely to be lost in FA in 2020? For 2020, that then becomes a net loss of two players on the DL. That's problematic for me.

Finally, expecting to get a high compensatory pick for Daniels is wishful thinking. He most likely won't be a highly sought after FA and won't command a high contract, and that potential comp pick wouldn't be awarded until 2021. Factor in that there's no guarantee that comp pick would be as decent as you might be able to negotiate in a trade now, and could be used in 2020, and you have to consider such a move at least plausible.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: ricky on April 30, 2019, 10:46:38 PM
Either thing could happen: Daniels could be traded for a 4th or 5th round pick, and then get injured. Or, he could make the team and have an impactful year. Or he could make the team and get hurt. Or a player the Packers try to stash on the PS PS is picked up by someone else and does really well elsewhere. There is a risk/reward to every scenario. I simply prefer erring on the side of keeping a known quantity, rahter than hoping an unknown quantity will suddenly do well when the real games begin. But if the Packers decide that trading Daniels is the best thing to do, fine.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: scoremore on May 01, 2019, 08:53:55 AM
Agree with Ricky.  Think trading Daniels is not a good idea.  He's the leader of the defense for starters.  The guys we have behind him are all very young and unproven.  Let him play his contract out and see how he finishes the season.  If he plays true to form try to re sign him if possible.  Daniels is not washed up.  He's got another 2-3 seasons of solid play left.  If another team offers him big bucks and he gets poached so be it.  Take the comp and move on. 
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: #66 on May 01, 2019, 11:39:15 AM
I can't see much interest as his contract runs out this year. Teams will wait to see if he is signed to a new contract, or allowed to reach FA.
The team may view his FA as a plus as they could also be trading for a compensatory pick.  Word is that this factored into Philly trading for Jordan Howard.
I do not see GB trading Daniels by any means.  That would leave very little experience beyond Clark in the middle.  Furthermore, he is a leader, albeit one who's timbre may not strike the correct note with everyone.  Furthermore, it is clear that this D is predicated on big bodies up front, hence, I do not see them trading away one of those that has proven effective.  Again, like those that wanted to cut Bulaga, why create a weakness...?
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: ricky on May 01, 2019, 12:21:44 PM
Agree with Ricky.  Think trading Daniels is not a good idea.  He's the leader of the defense for starters.  The guys we have behind him are all very young and unproven.  Let him play his contract out and see how he finishes the season.  If he plays true to form try to re sign him if possible.  Daniels is not washed up.  He's got another 2-3 seasons of solid play left.  If another team offers him big bucks and he gets poached so be it.  Take the comp and move on.

Thanks for the support, but I don't see Daniels being re-signed. He will be on the wrong side of 30, and the team has shown they are more than willing to let players go, even extremely popular players, who they decide are expendable. So, keep Daniels around; IF another player shows he could replace him with no downside, look to trade him during the season. But, since it is a contract year, I would fully expect Daniels to find an extra gear, and exceed expectations, hoping to get a better contract with someone.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: Donzo on May 01, 2019, 02:08:29 PM
At first blush, I didn't buy this either, and I still really don't.

But, in preseason, if the young guys show they can play quality minutes on the DL, saving $8M in cap space with the release/trade of Daniels is a legit thought.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: ricky on May 01, 2019, 02:51:27 PM
At first blush, I didn't buy this either, and I still really don't.

But, in preseason, if the young guys show they can play quality minutes on the DL, saving $8M in cap space with the release/trade of Daniels is a legit thought.

Does the team need the extra cap space right now? Because next year, if Daniels is not re-signed, the team clears up cap space that will be needed to re-sign Clark, for example. Again, what's the rush?
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: WTX_Cheese on May 02, 2019, 10:12:05 AM
There's no reason to prematurely get rid of Daniels. At the very worst, he's an EXCELLENT rotational guy.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: craig on May 02, 2019, 11:10:08 AM
.....Does the team need the extra cap space right now? Because next year, if Daniels is not re-signed, the team clears up cap space that will be needed to re-sign Clark, for example. Again, what's the rush?

Every multi-year FA with substantial signing bonus has a big jump in cap hit year two.  Smiths, Turner, Amos, all four will have big spikes next year.  The team is not going to have the discretionary spending money next year that they had this year.  So freeing up a bunch of millions, while not helping this year, would certainly open up opportunities next year. 

I'm not at all advocating to let Daniels go, I have no idea.  But **IF** the scouting evaluation is that he's replaceable with a young guy, and you can save $8M or whatever in the process, have $8 to spend next year might help a whole bunch. 
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: dannobanano on May 02, 2019, 01:52:48 PM
I just added up the 2020 cap charge for the top 10 players on the Packers roster....................$182.32M
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

This could be a very strong indicator that the Packers will be very very tight against the cap in 2020.
They can gain $3.75M by releasing Tramon Williams before the season as well.
They can also gain $12.5M by letting Graham and Lane Taylor go next year, but still............they made need more room and Daniels would be a savings of $8M.

The 2019 NFL salary cap in $188.2M. The 2018 salary cap was $177.2M

The salary cap will likely go up next year. You can guess it could be in the same neighborhood as the jump from 2018 to 2019 (~$11M), but don't assume that's a given. No one knows for sure. It could be more/less depending on a number of factors. It likely goes up, but how much is subject to conjecture.

Packers currently have $13.14M in cap space left on the 2019 cap. Some of that can be rolled over to next year, but you can bet it won't be that full $13M.

Keeping Daniels for 2019 can make sense, but only is he earns it.............like everyone else. If it works out that way, then I've just wasted 20-30 minutes with some useless typing.

But there are three other players who could be the determining factor on whether or not Daniels stays, or goes ........... and when.

Clark, Martinez, and Lowry.

Saving Daniels 2019 salary could make it possible to extend one of either Lowry or Martinez now, in 2019, rather than try and wait and potentially pay "market rate" in free agency next year, which may become unaffordable depending on their market demand.

Clark's 5th year option will likely be a cap charge of around $7M-$8M, based on what they paid to HHCD for his 5th year option (~$5M).

Gute could roll the dice and wait, but you can almost hear the outcry already................"He should have found a way to keep those guys!!!" Goodness, sometimes I hate 20/20 hindsight.

Go back to the Silverstein article where he compares DL height/weight and other measurables and traits. Daniels is the only outlier. Does that automatically disqualify him from making the 2019 sqaud?
Certainly not!

But there are trends happening in what kind of players Gute is bringing in to remake the Packers team. And Daniels doesn't fit the profile, in multiple ways.

As for his leadership, again refer to the Silverstein article. His claim is that there were other on the defense (Wilkerson, Dial) who were better "leaders" than Daniels. Currently, you could look at Clark, Martinez, The Smith's, or Amos. Veterans are veterans, doesn't mean they have to have long tenure on the team to be looked at as leaders. If you can walk-the-walk, then you can talk-the-talk. There may be multiple players who supplant Daniels in that regard

So unless M-Adams, Lancaster, Z-Smith, P-Smith, and Gary are playing like bums, it could be an uphill battle for The Diesel to make this team in 2019 when you factor everything together.

I hope he balls out and makes it a mute point for the Packers to even consider. Let the cream rise to the top.


Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: claymaker on May 04, 2019, 06:20:05 AM
Silverstein has an interesting column suggesting it might be time for the Packers to move on from Mike Daniels, citing the following reasons.

# The Packers have a profile of what they like in the D line- length, long arms and versatility. Daniels doesn't meet any of those criteria.

# Even if he stays he will have his snaps decreased, something he won't be happy with in a contract year.

# They are unlikely to retain him this year so they should try to get something for him like they did with HHCD

# Trading him for a pick saves $ 8 million.

Will that 8 million carryover to next year? Remember only so much can carryover. Looking at the defensive line Daniels and Clark are the only two proven players. Has he been a great player? No, but he has been a good one. Certainly good enough to see if he's still got it. And if he doesn't then another team isn't going to trade for him, not even a 6th round pick. I believe he still has enough to offer this team in terms of leadership and playing ability to keep him.

To me, Green Bay is so good at managing the cap I'm not worried about them saving 8 million right now or in the future. If they could get a 4th round pick for him then by all means trade him, but I don't believe any team would agree to that trade.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: croquet on May 04, 2019, 08:31:03 AM
The redskins gave up a fourth to rent ha ha for part of a season. Some team would make that trade for Daniels.

That said I would not trade him until we begin to see how this defense comes together. And even then I would be careful not to unload a big body.

I have always liked Daniels and he is just getting the talent around him to make a run.

In Pettine I trust.
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: RT on May 04, 2019, 09:22:34 AM
It's hard to believe that this 'trade Daniels' thing can gain this much steam, but every year there seems to be this same conversation only with a different name. Fans get lost in the contract stuff and justify their case accordingly, but the Packers took care of the accounting part of this before FA started. If they were getting rid of Daniels over money it would of been done by March 15th.

As I stated last year when this talk was about Matthews and saving X number of dollars to move on from him, if Matthews was one of the 4 best OLB's on the team the Packers were not getting rid of him. Winning games is the name of the business and keeping your best players is the best way to win games.

The Packers will probably keep 6 DL this year and if Daniels is one of the 6 best DL on the Packers, the Packers are not getting rid of him. Looking at this current DL room it looks fairly chalky unless injuries strike them. Outside of Daniels the rooms consists of Kenny Clark, Montravius Adams, Dean Lowry, Kingley Keke, Tyler Lancaster and all five of those have a very good chance of making the 53, who after that is going to challenge Daniels for his spot on the roster? The remaining DL on the roster are James Looney, Fadol Brown, Deon Simon and Eric Cotton, not a single one of those guys can carry Daniels jock.

Daniels is a human wrecking ball and is still the second best DL on the Packers team and in the big picture is fairly cheap at 8M this season. The Packers will in all likelihood not re-sign him after the 2019 season, but the Packers are not trading him this year.       

Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: dannobanano on May 04, 2019, 10:02:16 AM
We also had this discussion about Cobb last year. Was he worth keeping at his ~$10M salary or should they trade/cut him?

If the Packers could have a do-over on Cobb this year, I wonder if they would do it the same as they did last year.

Same context applies, this year, to Daniels, and maybe even more-so since GB knows more about what they have in DL talent than they did last year about WR talent.

I think listing Fadol Brown in a negative light is a disservice to him and his ability. They were just as pleased with how he played last year as they were with Lancaster, yet Lancaster get's props. but Brown can't carry a jockstrap. I don't get it?

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2019/1/9/18173252/five-packers-who-earned-opportunities-for-2019-during-the-final-stretch

"Tyler Lancaster
The undrafted rookie defensive tackle from Northwestern graded out very well down the stretch, becoming a dependable run defender for the Packers in the midst of injuries to Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark. After beginning on the practice squad, Lancaster made the most of his chances when called up in early October and even posted six tackles against Chicago. His ability to consistently withstand blocks from interior offensive linemen before shedding blocks and finding the ballcarrier, as seen below, truly was a bright spot in the team’s dismal ending to the season.

Fadol Brown
Claimed off waivers from Oakland only a month ago, Brown only played in four games for the Packers. But his energy, quickness off the snap, and athleticism was present in flashes for Green Bay and should have another opportunity in training camp to see if he can replicate those traits.
Although Lancaster’s consistency will give him a leg up, Brown’s performance in back-to-back plays against Chicago was impressive and opened some eyes. Brown’s burst inside off the snap stuffed a third down rush in the backfield. Then, another finely-shredded block on a fake punt attempt resulted in a drive-ending tackle on the next play.
No, Brown is not guaranteed a roster spot next season, but he put himself on the radar in just four games."


If there's anyone on the DL group that might be on the hot seat, it could be Montravious Adams.

I also think that Rashon Gary will see as many snaps as a member of the DL, even though they list him as a OLB, which could open a roster spot for udfa Greg Roberts.


I still suspect there will be a lot of changes in how this defense operates under Pettine this year, and part of that is going to be a constant rotation of DL personnel to keep the pressure on opposing OL's and QB's. It will likely mean Daniels number of snaps could decrease significantly and could hurt his stats/future market value as a pending FA.

Will he be content to be a "rotational" guy?

ps..............

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/an-early-handicap-on-potential-packers-cap-casualties-548

"1. Mike Daniels: 1 yr/$10.72 million ($2.4 million dead cap).  With the emergence of Tyler Lancaster, James Looney, last season and the selections of Rashan Gary and Kingsley Keke this season, Mike Daniels could find himself on the outside looking in if one or more players from this list emerge. 
All of these young players are on rookie contracts and moving on from Daniels could save the Packers as much as $8.3 million in cap space during a time when the Packers don't have much financial flexibility and are looking to get younger.
My Take:
Personally, I think the Packers should hang onto all of the players on this list for a few reasons.  1. They all still have value and will help the 2019 Green Bay Packers. 2. Their cap figures will come off of the books for the 2020 season anyway and will allow the Packers the financial flexibility to resign Kenny Clark and pursue another young free agent or two.  3. The Packers could still restructure or resign these players to team-friendly extensions that will lessen their cap hits in each of the next 2-3 seasons which would make the roster stronger while still providing financial flexibility.  4. The Packers would only need to free up more cap space if a big name became available via trade or training camp release.  The Packers should just sit tight and develop every player on the roster so they can maximize their production in 2019."
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: RT on May 04, 2019, 11:16:07 AM
I may well have misinterpreted what I believe you are thinking Fadol Brown is, but Brown is not in the same sentence with Daniels or Lancaster. I don't know if you are selling Daniels and Lancaster short or you have over valued Brown, but Brown is not in the same league with either one. Lancaster was the highest graded rookie on the Packers team last season by PFF with a 77.5 and Daniels is a former Pro Bowl player and twice voted by fellow players as a top 100 player in all of the NFL. He was ranked 93rd by his peers on the NFL Top 100 Players of 2018, that was not to long ago.

Brown is a player that has bounced around since being an UDFA and was a healthy cut by the Raiders in season last year. The same Raiders that were last in the NFL in QB pressures, yet they cut this guy in season. He played in 4 games for the Packers and had 2 tackles, but I believe they came on back to back plays against the Bears and now people think he is a thing. IMO he has a very small chance of making the 53 without a rash of injuries striking the position. On the NFL gridiron I don't think Brown can carry Lancaster or Daniels jockstrap, he is just not in the same conversation as quality of players go. IMO.     
Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: dannobanano on May 04, 2019, 11:27:32 AM
You see a glass half (or more) empty.

I see it half full.

We just view him differently.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/06/packers-interested-in-bringing-back-dl-fadol-brown/

BTW........I’m a big Lancaster fan.  thumbsup)

Title: Re: Trade Daniels?
Post by: RT on May 04, 2019, 11:48:35 AM
Not sure what the link reps, but he was a no risk exclusive rights free agent re-sign. No signing bonus and his exclusive rights contract has an injury clause in it that has the Packers only on the hook for half if he should suffer a season ending injury. What should be a little telling there is that he was the only exclusive rights free agent that settled for that clause, it was a case of that or the Packers were willing to release him. He and his agent took it because they new there was little to market for him. He is a camp body.

Not sure how someone gets a half full, half empty analogy from that. A camp body is just a glass and the amount of water it may end up with is yet to be determined.