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General Category => NFL Talk => Free Agency => Topic started by: dannobanano on October 12, 2019, 09:34:00 AM

Title: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on October 12, 2019, 09:34:00 AM
What position(s) should Gute consider using FA to fill in gaps on this team going forward?

I think It's clear that TE will be a position that gets addressed, and I think it will be FA rather than draft (again).

Packers lack a Combo TE (can both block and receive) that is essential to MLF's offense being able to do all that he wants it to do.
My guess is that both Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis will both be gone in 2020. That leaves Tonyan, Sternberger, and PS guys Baylis and Wolf. None of these four players is a Combo TE.

Sadly, there really isn't a great Combo TE prospect in the draft this year either (2019 was the year for that). So it may fall to looking to FA as a way of addressing this.

But who? I don't want another "aging" veteran, like they've been doing. Someone under 30 yrs old, please!

Hunter Henry? (injury risk)
Nick O'Leary?
Austin Hooper?
Levine Toilolo?
Maxx Williams?
Nick Vannett?

Could any of these players provide what MLF needs at TE to allow him to be as multiple as he desires from the same formations/personnel packages?



It may be possible that RB becomes a target in FA as well. The Packers need another RB they can utilize much on the same way they use Aaron Jones. As much as I like AJ, I think it is reckless to hang a "bell cow" label on him. There needs to be another RB that can spell him during games so they can have two RB's that remain fairly fresh all game/all season. Jamaal Williams is not an AJ, but he has value in other capacities. Dexter Williams is still a major question mark that may never get answered.

They could go draft here, but it may take a pick in the first 3 rounds to get the kind of quality/type player they may be looking for. Would they rather go FA and save that draft capital for another position?

What RB's might make sense (age wise/skill set), if they go the FA route?

Kenyon Drake?
Peyton Barber?
Jalen Richard?
CJ Prosise?
Dwayne Wahington?

Who's the best fit to run side by side with AJ, and also give the Packers some "cover" when Jones hits UFA in 2021?




I get the feeling we will see WR, OL (T/G), ILB, QB become the most talked about early draft priorities as they move into the off season in 2020. It will be interesting to see how this will all develop.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: MO.Pack on January 02, 2020, 10:18:54 AM
All for trying to go after Amari Cooper.  Only 25 years old.  Will become in all likelihood a UFA.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on January 02, 2020, 11:37:37 AM
What position(s) should Gute consider using FA to fill in gaps on this team going forward?

I think It's clear that TE will be a position that gets addressed, and I think it will be FA rather than draft (again).

Packers lack a Combo TE (can both block and receive) that is essential to MLF's offense being able to do all that he wants it to do.
My guess is that both Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis will both be gone in 2020. That leaves Tonyan, Sternberger, and PS guys Baylis and Wolf. None of these four players is a Combo TE.

Sadly, there really isn't a great Combo TE prospect in the draft this year either (2019 was the year for that). So it may fall to looking to FA as a way of addressing this.

Levine Toilolo?
Maxx Williams?
Nick Vannett?

Could any of these players provide what MLF needs at TE to allow him to be as multiple as he desires from the same formations/personnel packages?
 

Posted this in another thread. How about Eric Ebron? Big, young, versatile, and has shown he can really play. He's going to be an UFA, Colts have no interest, and he probably wouldn't break the bank. Suddenly, the Packers have two young TE's (remember Sternberger has effectively had a red shirt season), and a position of age could become a position of youthful production. That would be up to MLF. Here's a summary of Ebron from Rotoworld:

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/8330/eric-ebron
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: LMG on January 02, 2020, 12:26:21 PM
Why have the Colts "no interest"?
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on January 02, 2020, 03:43:31 PM
Why have the Colts "no interest"?

He got hurt, then effectively claimed he was suffering too much pain to continue the season, so they put him on IR. This was more likely a business decision, that Ebron didn't want to risk aggravating the injury before being able to explore FA. Here is the article from PFT:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/02/colts-dont-want-eric-ebron-back/

Some might see this as a replay of the Gabe Wilkens debacle from the Bronco SB. I see it more as a top college prospect not playing in a meaningless bowl game- but with even less reason to risk an injury in a lost year. Not completely risk free, but this is true of any FA signing.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: LMG on January 02, 2020, 05:44:27 PM
Why have the Colts "no interest"?

He got hurt, then effectively claimed he was suffering too much pain to continue the season, so they put him on IR. This was more likely a business decision, that Ebron didn't want to risk aggravating the injury before being able to explore FA. Here is the article from PFT:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/02/colts-dont-want-eric-ebron-back/ (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/02/colts-dont-want-eric-ebron-back/)

Some might see this as a replay of the Gabe Wilkens debacle from the Bronco SB. I see it more as a top college prospect not playing in a meaningless bowl game- but with even less reason to risk an injury in a lost year. Not completely risk free, but this is true of any FA signing.


Not completely on board with Ebron but....
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: Shinesman on January 25, 2020, 02:12:13 AM
What position(s) should Gute consider using FA to fill in gaps on this team going forward?

I think It's clear that TE will be a position that gets addressed, and I think it will be FA rather than draft (again).

Packers lack a Combo TE (can both block and receive) that is essential to MLF's offense being able to do all that he wants it to do.
My guess is that both Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis will both be gone in 2020. That leaves Tonyan, Sternberger, and PS guys Baylis and Wolf. None of these four players is a Combo TE.

Sadly, there really isn't a great Combo TE prospect in the draft this year either (2019 was the year for that). So it may fall to looking to FA as a way of addressing this.

But who? I don't want another "aging" veteran, like they've been doing. Someone under 30 yrs old, please!

Hunter Henry? (injury risk)
Nick O'Leary?
Austin Hooper?
Levine Toilolo?
Maxx Williams?
Nick Vannett?

Could any of these players provide what MLF needs at TE to allow him to be as multiple as he desires from the same formations/personnel packages?



It may be possible that RB becomes a target in FA as well. The Packers need another RB they can utilize much on the same way they use Aaron Jones. As much as I like AJ, I think it is reckless to hang a "bell cow" label on him. There needs to be another RB that can spell him during games so they can have two RB's that remain fairly fresh all game/all season. Jamaal Williams is not an AJ, but he has value in other capacities. Dexter Williams is still a major question mark that may never get answered.

They could go draft here, but it may take a pick in the first 3 rounds to get the kind of quality/type player they may be looking for. Would they rather go FA and save that draft capital for another position?

What RB's might make sense (age wise/skill set), if they go the FA route?

Kenyon Drake?
Peyton Barber?
Jalen Richard?
CJ Prosise?
Dwayne Wahington?

Who's the best fit to run side by side with AJ, and also give the Packers some "cover" when Jones hits UFA in 2021?




I get the feeling we will see WR, OL (T/G), ILB, QB become the most talked about early draft priorities as they move into the off season in 2020. It will be interesting to see how this will all develop.

Of the folks you mentioned, I like Hooper and Drake the best. I always seem to see them making plays when they are on local stations.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on January 25, 2020, 08:04:04 AM
I'm changing my tune on TE and RB in free agency. Not sure I see either position as a target anymore, unless the "value" is just too good to pass on.

Certainly not a fan of Ebron.

Does Jimmy Graham stay? Gute is talking in the affirmative side of this topic at the moment. Smoke screen? Maybe, but will have to wait/see.

Marcedes Lewis? By all accounts he had a good year, especially in helping unlock AJ in the running game, and says he feels good and wants to come back for one more go around. If his blocking skills don't diminish, he would be an asset, and at a fraction of the Jimmy-G cost.

Other TE's already under contract:
Jace Sternberger - I think we began to see him emerging during the playoffs. Remember, this kid got knocked out of TC by a cheap shot in shared practice with HOU. Then comes back and wrecks his ankle, goes on IR, comes off IR later in season. So it was pretty much a wash for him but what we saw got me excited. He could be a significant factor in 2020, and could be the reason that JG doesn't come back.
Robert Tonyan - ERFA. He's not going anywhere, but still needs to prove he can be part of the long term plan on offense.
Evan Baylis - At 6-5/250 he looks the part. They have certainly felt comfy in keeping him around. I think he has combo-TE qualities that need time to shine.
James Looney - DE who has converted to TE. Not sure is he has any receiving skills at all but, at 6-3/287, if he shows any competence for blocking, he's going to move people with his size/strength. At least he gets a chance to prove himself in TC this next year.

What GB really needs is a receiving threat at TE that puts pressure on defenses in the middle of the field and takes pressure off the Packer WR's on the boundaries.

I'm feeling that the draft may be the best way to address this need for the longer term as they move forward.

I would apply the same logic to RB, especially after AJ made it through the whole season without missing a game due to injury. I believe that GB still needs a rushing colleague to spell AJ, and while I like J-Williams, he not dynamic enough to threaten defenses in the same way that AJ can. Adding another RB in the draft with better skills/qualities than J-Williams should be a serious consideration, especially with so many question marks surrounding Dexter Williams.

My feeling, as of the moment, is that FA should be dedicated to shoring up 3 positions. ILB, 5-tech DE, and slot WR, with putting the bigger money into ILB and DE.

My suggestions here would be:
ILB - Nick Kwiatkoski (CHI)
DE - Vernon Butler (CAR)

I haven't settled on a Slot-WR, but if INDY does not tender RFA Marcus Johnson, I'd be interested in him.

As far as drafting a TE and a RB:
TE - Hunter Bradley/Washington (a true "Flex" TE who will threaten all 3 levels of the defense)
RB - Patrick Taylor, JR/Memphis (Missed almost all of last year with an ankle injury, but in 2018, and paired with Darrell Henderson, Taylor rushed for 1122 yds and 16 TD's. One TD every 13 times he touched the ball. He also added 2 TD's on pass receptions.)
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: The GM on January 25, 2020, 10:53:29 AM
I'm changing my tune on TE and RB in free agency. Not sure I see either position as a target anymore, unless the "value" is just too good to pass on.

Certainly not a fan of Ebron.

Does Jimmy Graham stay? Gute is talking in the affirmative side of this topic at the moment. Smoke screen? Maybe, but will have to wait/see.

Marcedes Lewis? By all accounts he had a good year, especially in helping unlock AJ in the running game, and says he feels good and wants to come back for one more go around. If his blocking skills don't diminish, he would be an asset, and at a fraction of the Jimmy-G cost.

Other TE's already under contract:
Jace Sternberger - I think we began to see him emerging during the playoffs. Remember, this kid got knocked out of TC by a cheap shot in shared practice with HOU. Then comes back and wrecks his ankle, goes on IR, comes off IR later in season. So it was pretty much a wash for him but what we saw got me excited. He could be a significant factor in 2020, and could be the reason that JG doesn't come back.
Robert Tonyan - ERFA. He's not going anywhere, but still needs to prove he can be part of the long term plan on offense.
Evan Baylis - At 6-5/250 he looks the part. They have certainly felt comfy in keeping him around. I think he has combo-TE qualities that need time to shine.
James Looney - DE who has converted to TE. Not sure is he has any receiving skills at all but, at 6-3/287, if he shows any competence for blocking, he's going to move people with his size/strength. At least he gets a chance to prove himself in TC this next year.

What GB really needs is a receiving threat at TE that puts pressure on defenses in the middle of the field and takes pressure off the Packer WR's on the boundaries.

I'm feeling that the draft may be the best way to address this need for the longer term as they move forward.

I would apply the same logic to RB, especially after AJ made it through the whole season without missing a game due to injury. I believe that GB still needs a rushing colleague to spell AJ, and while I like J-Williams, he not dynamic enough to threaten defenses in the same way that AJ can. Adding another RB in the draft with better skills/qualities than J-Williams should be a serious consideration, especially with so many question marks surrounding Dexter Williams.

My feeling, as of the moment, is that FA should be dedicated to shoring up 3 positions. ILB, 5-tech DE, and slot WR, with putting the bigger money into ILB and DE.

My suggestions here would be:
ILB - Nick Kwiatkoski (CHI)
DE - Vernon Butler (CAR)

I haven't settled on a Slot-WR, but if INDY does not tender RFA Marcus Johnson, I'd be interested in him.

As far as drafting a TE and a RB:
TE - Hunter Bradley/Washington (a true "Flex" TE who will threaten all 3 levels of the defense)
RB - Patrick Taylor, JR/Memphis (Missed almost all of last year with an ankle injury, but in 2018, and paired with Darrell Henderson, Taylor rushed for 1122 yds and 16 TD's. One TD every 13 times he touched the ball. He also added 2 TD's on pass receptions.)

Agree with much of this.  I think you need to bring back Lewis as a legit blocking TE, and give Sternberger a shot at the TE position. For me Graham would have to be significantly reduced to return.
The TE at UWash is Hunter Bryant, absolutely love him, but I think well have bigger fish to fry.  We need ILB,s WRs, DTs.  Bryant will be a matchup problem for many defenses.  Hes a great YAC guy who can get a ball in the seam and go.  I dont think he makes it to our 2nd round pick, but hes had some knee issues in his career that could make him slip a little.  A definite impact player.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: Shinesman on January 25, 2020, 02:59:17 PM
I'm changing my tune on TE and RB in free agency. Not sure I see either position as a target anymore, unless the "value" is just too good to pass on.

Certainly not a fan of Ebron.

Does Jimmy Graham stay? Gute is talking in the affirmative side of this topic at the moment. Smoke screen? Maybe, but will have to wait/see.

Marcedes Lewis? By all accounts he had a good year, especially in helping unlock AJ in the running game, and says he feels good and wants to come back for one more go around. If his blocking skills don't diminish, he would be an asset, and at a fraction of the Jimmy-G cost.

Other TE's already under contract:
Jace Sternberger - I think we began to see him emerging during the playoffs. Remember, this kid got knocked out of TC by a cheap shot in shared practice with HOU. Then comes back and wrecks his ankle, goes on IR, comes off IR later in season. So it was pretty much a wash for him but what we saw got me excited. He could be a significant factor in 2020, and could be the reason that JG doesn't come back.
Robert Tonyan - ERFA. He's not going anywhere, but still needs to prove he can be part of the long term plan on offense.
Evan Baylis - At 6-5/250 he looks the part. They have certainly felt comfy in keeping him around. I think he has combo-TE qualities that need time to shine.
James Looney - DE who has converted to TE. Not sure is he has any receiving skills at all but, at 6-3/287, if he shows any competence for blocking, he's going to move people with his size/strength. At least he gets a chance to prove himself in TC this next year.

What GB really needs is a receiving threat at TE that puts pressure on defenses in the middle of the field and takes pressure off the Packer WR's on the boundaries.

I'm feeling that the draft may be the best way to address this need for the longer term as they move forward.

I would apply the same logic to RB, especially after AJ made it through the whole season without missing a game due to injury. I believe that GB still needs a rushing colleague to spell AJ, and while I like J-Williams, he not dynamic enough to threaten defenses in the same way that AJ can. Adding another RB in the draft with better skills/qualities than J-Williams should be a serious consideration, especially with so many question marks surrounding Dexter Williams.

My feeling, as of the moment, is that FA should be dedicated to shoring up 3 positions. ILB, 5-tech DE, and slot WR, with putting the bigger money into ILB and DE.

My suggestions here would be:
ILB - Nick Kwiatkoski (CHI)
DE - Vernon Butler (CAR)

I haven't settled on a Slot-WR, but if INDY does not tender RFA Marcus Johnson, I'd be interested in him.

As far as drafting a TE and a RB:
TE - Hunter Bradley/Washington (a true "Flex" TE who will threaten all 3 levels of the defense)
RB - Patrick Taylor, JR/Memphis (Missed almost all of last year with an ankle injury, but in 2018, and paired with Darrell Henderson, Taylor rushed for 1122 yds and 16 TD's. One TD every 13 times he touched the ball. He also added 2 TD's on pass receptions.)

If you want to address TE during the draft the position is going to be just as much a debacle as our DB position was for years. We have 5 on the team, drafting another one means someone has to to go, at least one. And then you've got 4 players with 2 years or less under their belt (think tonyan was only in his second year.) Throwing picks at a problem until one sticks is an easy way to get yourself weak at other positions. Just look at our team now after years of poor DB dart throwing.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on January 26, 2020, 09:59:08 AM
They haven't had much luck addressing it in free agency either. And the down side to that is the cap money it has cost as opposed to a draft pick(s).

I think Sternberger, Tonyan, and Baylis have potential. Lewis adds veteran experience and stability (on and off the field). Adding a smart draft pick makes sense to me. But that's JMHO.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 03, 2020, 04:21:33 PM
I guess there are others who think Nick Kwiatkoski (CHI) would make sense as an ILB target in free agency.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/03/lb-nick-kwiatkoski-wr-breshad-perriman-make-sense-as-fa-targets-for-packers/

I haven't been a fan of Perriman in the past, buuuut, if he's cured the dropsies and the "light has come on" for him, you have to be intriqued with legit 4.3 speed.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on February 03, 2020, 07:50:34 PM
They haven't had much luck addressing it in free agency either. And the down side to that is the cap money it has cost as opposed to a draft pick(s).

I think Sternberger, Tonyan, and Baylis have potential. Lewis adds veteran experience and stability (on and off the field). Adding a smart draft pick makes sense to me. But that's JMHO.

It seemed that Sternberger showed potential to be that combo pass catcher/blocker when he got on the field. The Packers know better than we do, but if he does have those abilities, that is another box checked for the Packers, and, in spite of what MLF is presently hinting at, Graham will be a cap casualty. Because the team can use that cap space elsewhere, more than propping up a guy who has lost a few steps and can't block.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: Shinesman on February 04, 2020, 11:23:30 AM
I think two guys Green Bay should really look at are Robbie Anderson WR NYJ, and Michael Pierce IDL BAL. Neither would break the bank, and they provide needs at what should be great value. This allows the Packers to possibly move up to grab Murray as a Martinez replacement in the draft. They should also have some good choices left at other positions of need in the mid rounds.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: The GM on February 04, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
I think two guys Green Bay should really look at are Robbie Anderson WR NYJ, and Michael Pierce IDL BAL. Neither would break the bank, and they provide needs at what should be great value. This allows the Packers to possibly move up to grab Murray as a Martinez replacement in the draft. They should also have some good choices left at other positions of need in the mid rounds.

I think Anderson is going to get overpaid by someone.  I think Gute will get involved if Anderson hits the market, but wont go overboard on him.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: Shinesman on February 08, 2020, 08:24:57 PM
I think two guys Green Bay should really look at are Robbie Anderson WR NYJ, and Michael Pierce IDL BAL. Neither would break the bank, and they provide needs at what should be great value. This allows the Packers to possibly move up to grab Murray as a Martinez replacement in the draft. They should also have some good choices left at other positions of need in the mid rounds.

I think Anderson is going to get overpaid by someone.  I think Gute will get involved if Anderson hits the market, but wont go overboard on him.

I agree its not worth going overboard, and someone may pay him hoping that his speed translates to a huge skill increase, but I'm sure Gute does his part like you said.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 12, 2020, 12:37:03 PM
Last year at this time Green Bay had $36.5M of cap space to play with as free agency rolled around.

This year, IF they end up releasing Graham and Taylor, they will have $36.2M.

So why do so many folks think that Gute can't be a player in FA like he was last year?

With those numbers I could honestly see Gute being able to sign 2 splash FA's, like he did with the Smith Bros. last year, and still have plenty of room to extend Kenny Clark.

Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on February 12, 2020, 01:59:00 PM
Last year at this time Green Bay had $36.5M of cap space to play with as free agency rolled around.

This year, IF they end up releasing Graham and Taylor, they will have $36.2M.

So why do so many folks think that Gute can't be a player in FA like he was last year?

With those numbers I could honestly see Gute being able to sign 2 splash FA's, like he did with the Smith Bros. last year, and still have plenty of room to extend Kenny Clark.

Not sure how relevant this is, but the team has a lot of FA's in 2021. Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, Linsley, and Jamaal Williams. The first two in particular will be more expensive, while Linsley should be upgraded. Williams? I really like the guy- excellent blocker, can run for tough yards, and can catch the ball. And he's healthy. My favorite "non-famous" Packer by far. The question being, if they spend a lot of money this year, will they have enough next year to re-sign their priority FA's? Isn't that why they roll over money from one season to the next? I'm more than willing to be educated on this topic if my perceptions are wrong.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 13, 2020, 12:18:17 PM
Last year at this time Green Bay had $36.5M of cap space to play with as free agency rolled around.

This year, IF they end up releasing Graham and Taylor, they will have $36.2M.

So why do so many folks think that Gute can't be a player in FA like he was last year?

With those numbers I could honestly see Gute being able to sign 2 splash FA's, like he did with the Smith Bros. last year, and still have plenty of room to extend Kenny Clark.

Not sure how relevant this is, but the team has a lot of FA's in 2021. Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, Linsley, and Jamaal Williams. The first two in particular will be more expensive, while Linsley should be upgraded. Williams? I really like the guy- excellent blocker, can run for tough yards, and can catch the ball. And he's healthy. My favorite "non-famous" Packer by far. The question being, if they spend a lot of money this year, will they have enough next year to re-sign their priority FA's? Isn't that why they roll over money from one season to the next? I'm more than willing to be educated on this topic if my perceptions are wrong.

Right now, without adding any free agents in 2020, the Packers have $142M on the books for salaries in 2021.

Their current cap for 2020 is at $182M.

So that's $40M without factoring in any increase in the cap going forward.

At the moment, I could see them pass on extending Linsley and look to draft another C/G while they still have Patrick under contract.

That would mean the key 2021 FA's they would need to sign would be Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Kevin King. While I like Williams, he is a 2nd tier player, and keeping him would depend on what he's looking for in a contract extension. There's always RB's to draft and plug/play.

The only other 2021 UFA I haven't mentioned here is Montravious Adams, and I doubt he's in the future plans. He may not even make the 2020 squad.

In 2021, they have 4 RFA's that could eat up $6M - $8M of space if they decide to tender them all, and 13 ERFA's who average about $450K-$500K per player.

Based on this, I don't see a lot of problems in managing these next two years.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: RT on February 14, 2020, 09:46:51 AM

Jim Owczarski

@JimOwczarski


Potential #Packers FA options at inside linebacker:
          Player A        Player B
40         4.73              4.71
Vert      29.5              28.5
Broad   114               113
3cone   7.11              6.98
20yd     4.32              4.20
Wholly w/out context. Fun!
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: bmaafi on February 14, 2020, 04:35:01 PM
It's Martinez and Littleton.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: RT on February 14, 2020, 05:01:44 PM
It's Martinez and Littleton.

Correct, only it is (A)Littleton and (B)Martinez.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: bmaafi on February 14, 2020, 06:12:47 PM
It's Martinez and Littleton.
Correct, only it is (A)Littleton and (B)Martinez.

While I wasn't staying which was A and B, yes you are correct.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on February 14, 2020, 07:45:53 PM
It's Martinez and Littleton.

Correct, only it is (A)Littleton and (B)Martinez.

The question: can Littleton cover in space? Because Martinez, like Hawk before him, couldn't cover a guy in a phone booth, much less a football field.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: bmaafi on February 15, 2020, 01:49:05 AM
He's been one of the best coverage linebackers in the league so the answer is yes.


Also, Which one is Martinez and which is Littleton doesn't really matter. It wasn't the point of the tweet.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on February 15, 2020, 04:55:19 AM
Right now, without adding any free agents in 2020, the Packers have $142M on the books for salaries in 2021.

Their current cap for 2020 is at $182M.

So that's $40M without factoring in any increase in the cap going forward.

At the moment, I could see them pass on extending Linsley and look to draft another C/G while they still have Patrick under contract.

That would mean the key 2021 FA's they would need to sign would be Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Kevin King. While I like Williams, he is a 2nd tier player, and keeping him would depend on what he's looking for in a contract extension. There's always RB's to draft and plug/play.

The only other 2021 UFA I haven't mentioned here is Montravious Adams, and I doubt he's in the future plans. He may not even make the 2020 squad.

In 2021, they have 4 RFA's that could eat up $6M - $8M of space if they decide to tender them all, and 13 ERFA's who average about $450K-$500K per player.

Based on this, I don't see a lot of problems in managing these next two years.

I disagree on the Williams opinion, but then he's probably my favorite "lunch pail" player on the team. However, you calculations don't take into account any increase in salaries for guys already on the team (or do they?). Not trying to over-argue this, but if the team really wants to look into getting some cap space, they'd have to be radical/realistic, and look at moving on from Rodgers after 2021 (next year), when they'd save over $25 million in cap space- enough to sign a stop gap QB, and develop a longer term replacement. A gutsy call by Gutey, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks. And for a possible replacement, if not Boyle, how about bringing in Josh Rosen? Or having both on the roster, and see if they can be developed into viable QB's? As the old saying goes, better to get rid of a guy a year too early...
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: RT on February 15, 2020, 05:18:40 AM
Their has been a fair amount of talk about bringing in Littleton, but I doubt he is on the Packers radar. He would just fix one issue and create another, he has no interest in playing the run. This is from PFF's FA write-ups.

Littleton has quietly become one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, capable of running the seam with tight ends and closing quickly on running backs underneath. He has 18 pass breakups and six interceptions over the last two seasons, and he's posted a 90.6 coverage grade that ranks third-best in the league. However, while potential suitors are going to love Littleton’s ability to affect the passing game, he has had his struggles against the run. His 50.8 run-defense grade ranks just 103rd out of 126 qualifiers over the last two years, so that could hurt his value for teams looking for an all-around three-down linebacker.

 
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on February 15, 2020, 06:12:38 AM

Not sure how relevant this is, but the team has a lot of FA's in 2021. Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, Linsley, and Jamaal Williams. The first two in particular will be more expensive, while Linsley should be upgraded. Williams? I really like the guy- excellent blocker, can run for tough yards, and can catch the ball. And he's healthy. My favorite "non-famous" Packer by far. The question being, if they spend a lot of money this year, will they have enough next year to re-sign their priority FA's? Isn't that why they roll over money from one season to the next? I'm more than willing to be educated on this topic if my perceptions are wrong.

A new contract for Bakhtiari shouldn't impact the cap room significantly because he is already on a big contract. The cap hit comes from (relatively) small-wage players taking a big hike in pay. You could extend Aaron Jones late this year, so the cap hit doesn't come into play until 2021. I'd keep Linsley this year despite a (if memory serves) $8.5m saving if he is cut, then the Packers could see how he does in 2020 before making a decision on whether to re-up him or let him go, move Elgton Jenkins to center and either draft a guard as direct replacement, or put Lucas Patrick in there and draft a backup interior lineman. Jamaal Williams is another guy who can simply have his contract extended (the start of a bigger cap hit coming in at 2021).

Even so, when you account for a few smaller veteran contracts (like Kyler Fackrell and maybe Tramon Williams), add the big one for Clark, have some money put aside for the draft picks and a small working kitty for later in the year, there is about enough for one good (not huge) contract.

Of course when 2021 rolls around the Packers cap will probably be even tighter.  Is one cap free year likely to happen in the future ?
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on February 15, 2020, 06:35:37 AM
Their has been a fair amount of talk about bringing in Littleton, but I doubt he is on the Packers radar. He would just fix one issue and create another, he has no interest in playing the run.

While the Packers would need a run-stopping ILB to go with Littleton, he could fix the coverage aspect of ILB. I think part of the reason that Martinez was so often the only ILB on the field is that there wasn't a credible alternative that was better than a fifth DB. A better combo of ILBs could see two of them on the field much more often.

I agree that Littleton's cost might make double-dip drafting at ILB more likely (most likely in the 3rd and 4th rounds). The coverage ILB could be addressed with Patrick Queen in the first round, but more likely with Troy Dye or Akeem Davis Gaither in round three, or maybe Justin Strnad or Mohamed Barry in the fifth. If you are lucky enough to get a good coverage guy, they are cheap for 4 years.

The run-stopper ILB could be addressed with Kenneth Murray (a pretty good all-rounder) in the first, or more realistically with one of Jordyn Brooks, Malik Harrison, Evan Weaver Markus Bailey, Kamal Martin, David Woodward, Joe Bachie, Shaquille Quarterman, Jacob Phillips somewhere in rounds 3-6. I rather like Shaquille Quarterman as a later pick, even though all others I mentioned (except Jacob Phillips) are rated above him on TDN.

Even this isn't an exhaustive list. You could look for a safety who might be able to play as a hybrid S/coverage ILB. Options with decent size (over 200lb) are Kyle Dugger (round 2), Brandon Jones (round 3), Jeremy Chinn (round 4) or Antoine Brooks and Reggie Floyd (round 5). Just because Josh Jones (round 2, 2017) flamed out, doesn't men the next one will.

Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: bmaafi on February 15, 2020, 04:22:04 PM
Their has been a fair amount of talk about bringing in Littleton, but I doubt he is on the Packers radar. He would just fix one issue and create another, he has no interest in playing the run. This is from PFF's FA write-ups.

Littleton has quietly become one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, capable of running the seam with tight ends and closing quickly on running backs underneath. He has 18 pass breakups and six interceptions over the last two seasons, and he's posted a 90.6 coverage grade that ranks third-best in the league. However, while potential suitors are going to love Littleton’s ability to affect the passing game, he has had his struggles against the run. His 50.8 run-defense grade ranks just 103rd out of 126 qualifiers over the last two years, so that could hurt his value for teams looking for an all-around three-down linebacker.

He is also going to cost a lot, probably more than gb can afford.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 16, 2020, 09:36:35 AM
Right now, without adding any free agents in 2020, the Packers have $142M on the books for salaries in 2021.

Their current cap for 2020 is at $182M.

So that's $40M without factoring in any increase in the cap going forward.

At the moment, I could see them pass on extending Linsley and look to draft another C/G while they still have Patrick under contract.

That would mean the key 2021 FA's they would need to sign would be Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Kevin King. While I like Williams, he is a 2nd tier player, and keeping him would depend on what he's looking for in a contract extension. There's always RB's to draft and plug/play.

The only other 2021 UFA I haven't mentioned here is Montravious Adams, and I doubt he's in the future plans. He may not even make the 2020 squad.

In 2021, they have 4 RFA's that could eat up $6M - $8M of space if they decide to tender them all, and 13 ERFA's who average about $450K-$500K per player.

Based on this, I don't see a lot of problems in managing these next two years.

I disagree on the Williams opinion, but then he's probably my favorite "lunch pail" player on the team. However, you calculations don't take into account any increase in salaries for guys already on the team (or do they?). Not trying to over-argue this, but if the team really wants to look into getting some cap space, they'd have to be radical/realistic, and look at moving on from Rodgers after 2021 (next year), when they'd save over $25 million in cap space- enough to sign a stop gap QB, and develop a longer term replacement. A gutsy call by Gutey, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks. And for a possible replacement, if not Boyle, how about bringing in Josh Rosen? Or having both on the roster, and see if they can be developed into viable QB's? As the old saying goes, better to get rid of a guy a year too early...

Yes, my post does take into consideration for pay increases for ALL players currently under contract in 2021.

All you have to do, to confirm, is go look at OTC for the 2021 season.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

It lists all players under contract in 2021, and that number comes out to $141,977,677 of committed cap for 2021.
It also show Team Cap Space of $0.
Why?
Because the current CBA ends at the end of the 2020 season.
If there is a lock out, this is a mute point.
But, if they reach agreement on an extension of a new CBA, then isn't it likely that the new CBA cap limit for 2021, and beyond, would exceed the projected 2020 cap limit of ~$196M-$200M?
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on February 16, 2020, 11:33:01 AM
Yes, my post does take into consideration for pay increases for ALL players currently under contract in 2021.

All you have to do, to confirm, is go look at OTC for the 2021 season.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

It lists all players under contract in 2021, and that number comes out to $141,977,677 of committed cap for 2021.
It also show Team Cap Space of $0.
Why?
Because the current CBA ends at the end of the 2020 season.
If there is a lock out, this is a mute point.
But, if they reach agreement on an extension of a new CBA, then isn't it likely that the new CBA cap limit for 2021, and beyond, would exceed the projected 2020 cap limit of ~$196M-$200M?

Sorry for doubting you. I should have known that you would have all your "i's" dotted and 't's" crossed. Thank you.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 17, 2020, 12:43:33 PM
ricky, no need to apologize.

You weren't sure, and that's what questions are for.

As for me?! I'm wrong about stuff my fair share of the time. I appreciate it when people fact check me, and when I'm wrong it helps me to learn.

Feel free to follow up on this stuff. If I've missed/misunderstood something, I want to know.

Thanks for being gracious.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: mancl on February 21, 2020, 04:06:12 PM
In addition to the players that will be FA's in a few weeks teams are releasing players usually for cap reasons.  These are players teams could sign immediately The Bears released Taylor Gabriel today who MLF knows well.  I'd think the Packers would at least give his agent a call
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on February 21, 2020, 04:16:44 PM
In addition to the players that will be FA's in a few weeks teams are releasing players usually for cap reasons.  These are players teams could sign immediately The Bears released Taylor Gabriel today who MLF knows well.  I'd think the Packers would at least give his agent a call

A slot receiver maybe, 29 years old, on his third team, and comes in at 5'7" and 168 pounds. And he apparently hasn't been used as a returner. If he is quick and able to make sudden cuts, ala Welker or Edelman, fine. But he is on his third team, starting with the Browns, but also Atlanta and more recently the Bears. No one seems to have figure out how to effectively use his skill set. Maybe MLF has the key.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GabrTa00.htm
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 22, 2020, 09:18:39 AM
I think that MLF/Gute would maybe want to try and get a contract extension done for Tyler Ervin rather than pursue Gabriel.

Consider these nuggets on comparing the two players:
1) Ervin is bigger (5-10/192) and more durable, but just as fast/twitchy as Gabriel.
2) Ervin came in late enough last year that he was primarily a returner, but they still fit him into a few sub-packages like jet sweep, etc. Now, with a full off-season in learning the system he could realistically be cast in the Slot-WR role for 2020.
3) Ervin is also 3 yrs younger than Gabriel at age 26.
4) Ervin will likely cost less than Gabriel (which is a factor with the limited cap space they may have to work with. Look up the 30 percent rule, because the Packers could be dramatically impacted by it with the Clark, and maybe the Bulaga contracts)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/what-is-the-30-percent-rule-and-how-will-it-affect-the-packers/ar-BB10arU0
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: ricky on February 22, 2020, 09:57:40 AM
By all means, re-sign Ervin if possible. But I've been rethinking the Bulaga situation. IF the Packers drafted a RT, then re-signed Veldheer, and the draftee proved he was able to move into the lineup earlier than expected (like Bakhtiari and Jenkins), then they'd maintain a strong OL to protect AR, and gain some cap breathing room to address other issues. Would it be a gamble? Absolutely. Should they take the chance? I'm leaning toward "yes." Because Bulaga could become the next Josh Sitton very quickly- gone, then injured and re-injured, and he's someone else's problem.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 22, 2020, 10:17:50 AM
I'm in favor of keeping Veldheer as well, but they don't know what is asking price is going to be if he's anointed the starter.

In 2019 he came in November but wasn't activated until later. GB took advantage of a roster exemption rule with him. His 2019 base salary was $1.5M and the Packers were only charged $519K. His 2020 cost will be mostly definitely higher. Question is...….."How much?"

I was hoping he would be a cheaper "bridge" alternative to allowing Bulaga to walk and drafting a prospect RT.

Because of the "30 percent rule" the Packers may have to rethink a number of things between now and free agency.

I no longer discount the option of releasing Linsely and putting Patrick at Center. Keeping Taylor and putting him back at G and moving Jenkins to RT for 2020. Then draft both a Guard and a RT in this draft.

Releasing Graham and Linsley would give Gute an additional $16.5M added to the current $23.9M of cap space to work with, and he may need it if he has to front load contracts in 2020 in order to comply with the 30 Percent Rule. It may also mean that they wait on extending Kenny Clark until a new CBA has been ratified.

There's a lot of "stuff" swirling out there that has to be resolved before Gute can get clarity on what he can/can't do.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: The GM on February 22, 2020, 10:56:08 AM
I dont think teams are going to break the bank for Bulaga.  If the Pack cant sign him prior, They might let him explore FA, and decide if he's worth what hes been offered.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on February 23, 2020, 07:51:35 AM
Spotrac projects Bulaga getting offered a 3 yr/$30.5M free agent contract.

He grades out as one of the top RT's in the league and OT's that protect the QB are in high demand/short supply almost every year, and tend to get overpaid.

Would not surprise me is he gets offered north of $10M/yr.

I just don't see Gute ponying up beyond $9M per year, and maybe not even that high. His expiring deal was worth an average of $6.75M/yr over 5 yrs.

Just a hypothetical idea ………….. Gute could let Bulaga walk, move Jenkins to RT and also draft a RT, and then keep Lane Taylor and put him back at Guard. Since Taylor has just 2020 left on his contract, and idea like this would be a one year "patch" as opposed to a 3 yr - high cap commitment to an aging RT.

Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: dannobanano on March 14, 2020, 08:02:18 AM
There's a lot of chatter out there about the Packers and Austin Hooper. But I'm not buying into it.

He's an overhyped TE who does many things o.k. but doesn't have any feature to his game that he can dominate at.

He and his representatives also believe that his asking price in free agency is going to reset the TE market.

Last thing I want to see is another overpriced/under-average performing TE coming to GB. And signing Hooper would probably mean signing just one player in free agency.


CHI extends Danny Trevathan, likely knowing that their limited cap resources would be insufficient to reach agreement with Nick Kwiatkoski.

I think GB has a benchmark as to what they will be willing to pay a free agent ILB, and that both Cory Littleton and Joe Schobert will exceed that benchmark.

I've advocated for Kwiatkoski for more than 3 months at this point and I think he will be the primary target in free agency.


I also believe that Gute will add a veteran DL in free agency as well, but he won't target any of the high priced/top ranked DL. He will look for a role player/run stuffer that ranks as more of a 2nd level signing, so I don't expect someone signed in the first 7-10 days of free agency.

DT names that I have been reviewing are Beau Allen, Xavier Williams, Akeem Spence, David Onyemata, Maliek Collins, and Tyeler Davison.


Also, after the draft and leading up to training camp, I think they will have a window to finally get a deal done with Kenny Clark.

It may involve releasing Lane Taylor if they feel they will have enough depth at IOL after the draft, AND/OR, they could negotiate an extension with David Bakhtiari (a year early) to reduce his 2020 cap number and free up additional space to get a deal done with Clark before the regular season starts.

Would also like to see Tyler Ervin, Will Redmond, and Marcedes Lewis brought back as well.

That's my free agency wish list as that day approaches this next week.
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: The GM on March 14, 2020, 11:54:11 AM
There's a lot of chatter out there about the Packers and Austin Hooper. But I'm not buying into it.

He's an overhyped TE who does many things o.k. but doesn't have any feature to his game that he can dominate at.

He and his representatives also believe that his asking price in free agency is going to reset the TE market.

Last thing I want to see is another overpriced/under-average performing TE coming to GB. And signing Hooper would probably mean signing just one player in free agency.


CHI extends Danny Trevathan, likely knowing that their limited cap resources would be insufficient to reach agreement with Nick Kwiatkoski.

I think GB has a benchmark as to what they will be willing to pay a free agent ILB, and that both Cory Littleton and Joe Schobert will exceed that benchmark.

I've advocated for Kwiatkoski for more than 3 months at this point and I think he will be the primary target in free agency.


Gute might be in a corner as far as ILBs are concerned.  Martinez is likely gone.  Littleton or Schobert could be an option but would be expensive options.   Kwiatkoski has options with other teams.  Lets say for example Gutes price threshold is exceeded and those three LBs sign elsewhere.   Gute then looks to the draft.  What if Queen and Murray are gone before 30.    You are screwed at ILB.   How important is getting one of those 3 ILBs in this free agency class?  VERY.    You need to get one of them, Do you pay Littleton or Schoberts price?  Are you willing to get into a high bidding war for Kwiatkoski?    How high do you go?   

I'm sure many of the contract issues with these FAs has been discussed with many of the teams already.   These agents at the combine arent sitting around watching the groundskeepers vacuum the field.  They are selling their FAs to the teams.  I wouldnt be surprised if many of the FAs have parameters in place for deals already and just need to fine tune them during the official pre-FA bartering period.

A complete guess on my part, but I think they are going to make a strong push for Littleton, dont know if it will be enough but I think they are going to explore that heavily.

The NFL plans to start FA next week, will the coronavirus change that?   Stay tuned!!!!
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: RT on March 14, 2020, 12:25:58 PM
I think the market for the ILB's will be soft in Free Agency. I read an interview with an agent from before the Senior Bowl and he said that he would not be surprised if this years ILB's were to playout like the Safety group did a few years ago. There is a good number of quality ILB's in the Draft and FA and the supply probably out weighs the demand. The first clue to that being true might be the fact that Christian Kirksey is still bouncing around unsigned. He might be the best all around ILB on the market and no one has wowed him with a deal yet. I would be surprised if the Packers paid a large contract to a ILB this year. 
Title: Re: 2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's
Post by: bmaafi on March 14, 2020, 04:59:26 PM
Well there is uncertainty with the CBA and with covid throwing all teams for a loop with no more pro days. Also he is coming off two straight seasons on the IR so teams will weight that and are taking a hard look at his medicals. Also FA is starting on Monday so teams might just be waiting to see how the market bears out at ILB, then determining weather to go after him or a Littleton/schobert/Martinez/Kwikowski/etc..