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General Category => NFL Talk => Free Agency => Topic started by: B on March 25, 2013, 09:25:26 AM

Title: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: B on March 25, 2013, 09:25:26 AM
As the excitement continues to buid as we move closer to the 2013 NFL offseason championship being declared, Packer fans are again left bringing up the rear.

Pete Dougherty over at the Press-Gazette provided a review of how the past 4 NFL offseason champs fared in the following season:

 ■ Last year (2012), the Buffalo Bills were undisputed offseason champs when they signed the premier free agent, defensive end Mario Williams, to a $100 million contract, plus another pass rusher, Mark Anderson, who had 10 sacks in 2011. The Bills finished 2012 with the same 6-10 record as ’11, and coach Chan Gailey lost his job.

 ■ )The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East Division title in 2010 and then won the ’11 offseason by signing the top free agent, cornerback Nnamdi Asamougha, plus defensive linemen Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin, tackle Ryan Harris and trading for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Eagles went 8-8 in ’11.

 ■ In 2009, the Washington Redskins signed free agent defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth to a $100 million contract and added two other pricey starters in cornerback DeAngelo Hall and guard Derrick Dockery. The Redskins’ 4-12 record was worse than the previous year’s 6-10.

 ■ And in 2008, the Cleveland Browns won the offseason championship by trading the bulk of their draft for defensive linemen Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams, and signing free agent receiver Donte Stallworth. They went from 10-6 in ’07 to 4-12.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: classicpack on March 25, 2013, 09:33:58 AM
And how many of those teams ended up firing their coaches?  All of them!  (Shanahan inherited Haynesworth after the previous coach was fired).
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: be_here_now on March 26, 2013, 10:00:00 PM

 ■ And in 2008, the Cleveland Browns won the offseason championship by trading the bulk of their draft for defensive linemen Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams, and signing free agent receiver Donte Stallworth. They went from 10-6 in ’07 to 4-12.

i love how that was considered "winning the offseason" instead of "franchise crushing!!"

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQngMvvM97Cg4LAXKZZiMPI95FbW30GT58U2c_TW2vJ7_LcEOceLg)
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: B on March 27, 2013, 03:44:09 AM

 ■ And in 2008, the Cleveland Browns won the offseason championship by trading the bulk of their draft for defensive linemen Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams, and signing free agent receiver Donte Stallworth. They went from 10-6 in ’07 to 4-12.

i love how that was considered "winning the offseason" instead of "franchise crushing!!"

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQngMvvM97Cg4LAXKZZiMPI95FbW30GT58U2c_TW2vJ7_LcEOceLg)

Looking at it historically, those two things often mean the same thing - "winning the offseason" = "franchise crushing!!"
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: armchair qb on March 28, 2013, 10:46:56 AM
Factory of Sadness
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Pugger on March 29, 2013, 07:29:16 AM
God, it must be hell to be a Browns fan!   :-\
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: ricky on May 03, 2013, 08:17:20 AM
This year could be different. The 49ers and Seahawks could both arguably be seen as the FA winners this off-season. SF went to the championship game the last two seasons, advancing to the SB last year. They have had some losses, but overall, the team seems to be very strong. Seattle, though, was more of a "fluke" team. That painful "win" against the Packers; the emergence of Wilson at QB; and, for both teams, very healthy seasons.

Expect SF to be very formidable again this season. Look for Seattle to take a step back, or, at best, make the playoffs in a lower slot than last year. Besides, of the teams listed, who were their QBs? Also, the Eagles simply signed a lot of "name players" without changing their schemes to fit the talents of the new acquisitions. Dumb. Haynesworth was signed when Dan Snyder was still throwing big bucks at players who were over the hill or vastly overrated.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Draft Hobbyist on May 03, 2013, 04:29:33 PM
This year could be different. The 49ers and Seahawks could both arguably be seen as the FA winners this off-season. SF went to the championship game the last two seasons, advancing to the SB last year. They have had some losses, but overall, the team seems to be very strong. Seattle, though, was more of a "fluke" team. That painful "win" against the Packers; the emergence of Wilson at QB; and, for both teams, very healthy seasons.

Expect SF to be very formidable again this season. Look for Seattle to take a step back, or, at best, make the playoffs in a lower slot than last year. Besides, of the teams listed, who were their QBs? Also, the Eagles simply signed a lot of "name players" without changing their schemes to fit the talents of the new acquisitions. Dumb. Haynesworth was signed when Dan Snyder was still throwing big bucks at players who were over the hill or vastly overrated.

It's interesting that you said SEA had a fluke season but that you think SFO didn't. SFO ran an offense that hasn't been successful ever in the NFL. Teams now know about it and are keying in on it to stop it. SFO had very few injuries with multiple key players playing 1000+ defensive snaps. Will their offense still work? Will they be able to play another season without players getting hurt? Will the amount of snaps players play finally start wearing on them? At least SEA played more of a pro-style offense. SFO was almost completely dependent on a college-style offense.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: ricky on May 04, 2013, 04:31:27 AM
DH, I did bring up the injury issue, with both Seattle and SF being almost injury free last year. SF also made it to the NFC championship game the last two years. Kaepernick is capable of passing, and the run/option is just that, an option. It could very well be that SF has him run less this year, since, as noted, many teams will be gearing up for that particular offensive wrinkle. The SF defense is still stout, their OL is very good, they have a strong, dependable RB who can keep defenses honest. Seattle is similar, and both have added some FA's that could give them immediate help.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Twain on May 04, 2013, 12:57:56 PM
This year could be different. The 49ers and Seahawks could both arguably be seen as the FA winners this off-season. SF went to the championship game the last two seasons, advancing to the SB last year. They have had some losses, but overall, the team seems to be very strong. Seattle, though, was more of a "fluke" team. That painful "win" against the Packers; the emergence of Wilson at QB; and, for both teams, very healthy seasons.

Expect SF to be very formidable again this season. Look for Seattle to take a step back, or, at best, make the playoffs in a lower slot than last year. Besides, of the teams listed, who were their QBs? Also, the Eagles simply signed a lot of "name players" without changing their schemes to fit the talents of the new acquisitions. Dumb. Haynesworth was signed when Dan Snyder was still throwing big bucks at players who were over the hill or vastly overrated.

It's interesting that you said SEA had a fluke season but that you think SFO didn't. SFO ran an offense that hasn't been successful ever in the NFL. Teams now know about it and are keying in on it to stop it. SFO had very few injuries with multiple key players playing 1000+ defensive snaps. Will their offense still work? Will they be able to play another season without players getting hurt? Will the amount of snaps players play finally start wearing on them? At least SEA played more of a pro-style offense. SFO was almost completely dependent on a college-style offense.

The 49ers really aren't dependent on a college offense.  They don't run the read option all that much.  Kaepernick's mobility and ability to run from the pocket really hurts teams more, and he has now shown he throws a good ball.  Much of his running is the same kind of stuff Rodgers runs on- defense in an aggressive pass rush, loses gap control, QB gets good yardage.  Kaepernick is just faster than Rodgers.

49ers got to the championship game the year before without the read option.  They are the real deal, not a fluke.  That being said, I believe the Packers can play with those guys.  We were tied halfway through the 3rd quarter.  Defense, IMO, ran out of gas due to time of possession issues.  SF gets a few injuries this year and things could be very different.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Draft Hobbyist on May 04, 2013, 01:51:38 PM
This year could be different. The 49ers and Seahawks could both arguably be seen as the FA winners this off-season. SF went to the championship game the last two seasons, advancing to the SB last year. They have had some losses, but overall, the team seems to be very strong. Seattle, though, was more of a "fluke" team. That painful "win" against the Packers; the emergence of Wilson at QB; and, for both teams, very healthy seasons.

Expect SF to be very formidable again this season. Look for Seattle to take a step back, or, at best, make the playoffs in a lower slot than last year. Besides, of the teams listed, who were their QBs? Also, the Eagles simply signed a lot of "name players" without changing their schemes to fit the talents of the new acquisitions. Dumb. Haynesworth was signed when Dan Snyder was still throwing big bucks at players who were over the hill or vastly overrated.

It's interesting that you said SEA had a fluke season but that you think SFO didn't. SFO ran an offense that hasn't been successful ever in the NFL. Teams now know about it and are keying in on it to stop it. SFO had very few injuries with multiple key players playing 1000+ defensive snaps. Will their offense still work? Will they be able to play another season without players getting hurt? Will the amount of snaps players play finally start wearing on them? At least SEA played more of a pro-style offense. SFO was almost completely dependent on a college-style offense.

The 49ers really aren't dependent on a college offense.  They don't run the read option all that much.  Kaepernick's mobility and ability to run from the pocket really hurts teams more, and he has now shown he throws a good ball.  Much of his running is the same kind of stuff Rodgers runs on- defense in an aggressive pass rush, loses gap control, QB gets good yardage.  Kaepernick is just faster than Rodgers.

49ers got to the championship game the year before without the read option.  They are the real deal, not a fluke.  That being said, I believe the Packers can play with those guys.  We were tied halfway through the 3rd quarter.  Defense, IMO, ran out of gas due to time of possession issues.  SF gets a few injuries this year and things could be very different.

Kaepernick never completed more than 21 passes all season. Tom Brady only completed less than 21 completions 1 time all season. Aaron Rodgers had 5 games with less than 21 completions. That's including the playoffs. So many people are quick to call Colin Kaepernick this great QB just like so many people were quick to call Cam Newton this great QB after his 1st starting year. We'll see what happens when teams adjust, but my argument isn't that SFO is a fluke. My argument is that you can't call SEA a fluke and not call SFO a fluke.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Twain on May 04, 2013, 02:24:52 PM
I can agree with that, as Seattle isn't a fluke either.

I don't think CK is a great QB, but he is good enough.  He throws well enough that with a run based offense, it is difficult to defend.  He doesn't throw as often, but when he does he is efficient.  It will be interesting to see if Harbaugh decides to throw more this year.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: ricky on May 04, 2013, 11:20:09 PM
DH, Twain answered most of your points. There is a reason TT went for two RBs and two OTs in the draft, and its not so Rodgers could constantly be throwing the ball. Brady also is in a "pass first" offense, so of course these QBs would throw the ball more than Kaepernick. I never said Kaepernick was great. In fact, I indicated that he could be running less this year because other teams would be scheming to stop it. 

Now, as to fluke teams, I'll stand by my characterization of Seattle. Wilson had a very good rookie year. Now lets see him repeat it. Also, as I noted, both teams were very healthy last year. These things have a way of evening out.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Draft Hobbyist on May 05, 2013, 04:16:20 AM
DH, Twain answered most of your points. There is a reason TT went for two RBs and two OTs in the draft, and its not so Rodgers could constantly be throwing the ball. Brady also is in a "pass first" offense, so of course these QBs would throw the ball more than Kaepernick. I never said Kaepernick was great. In fact, I indicated that he could be running less this year because other teams would be scheming to stop it. 

Now, as to fluke teams, I'll stand by my characterization of Seattle. Wilson had a very good rookie year. Now lets see him repeat it. Also, as I noted, both teams were very healthy last year. These things have a way of evening out.

Yes, you have indicated that you think Kaepernick will be throwing the ball more, but you have not indicated why you think he'll be able to succeed without that run-first attitude. Much like with Tebow, Kaepernick was able to complete passes because guys got wide open. He showed some flashes of being able to throw the ball, but he also missed some wide open guys really badly. He also made some terrible decisions. His TD:Turnover in the regular season was 15:12 when including rushing and passing. That's not exactly a winning formula.

As for the whole passing attempt argument, Kaepernick attempted the 34th (tied with Smith) most passing attempts last year. That doesn't even put him in the Top 32! Even when you adjust for the amount of games he played and count the amount of games played as 8 and project that over 16 games, he's still only 23rd in the league in passing attempts. So it's not like me comparing Kaepernick to Brady and Rodgers is me cherry-picking the players that attempt the most passes. In completions, Kaeprenick is 35th, and 23rd if you project him over 16 games like I did before.

So maybe Kaepernick can make the jump. Maybe he can't make the jump. I think there's enough evidence here to show that he's far from a sure thing. The formula SFO used last year is not a formula a team can use year after year and expect to win the Super Bowl.

On the SEA being a fluke, that's fine if you want to call them a fluke, but then call SFO a fluke as well. Your argument was that SEA was a fluke and SFO was not. I don't understand this. Almost every argument against SEA also applies to SFO.

In regards to the read option, without the read option teams would not have played as much contain against SFO as they did. What it ended up doing is giving Kaepernick tons of time to throw the ball, and it made him look much better than he actually is throwing the ball. So I disagree with Twain's assessment that SFO's offense is not a college offense, and next year it's going to be exposed IMO. And again, if you want to call SFO the real deal I'm fine with that, but then don't call SEA a fluke without a better explanation of what the difference between SEA and SFO is.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Twain on May 05, 2013, 06:06:25 AM
I think you mischaracterized the 49er offense.  They were successful without CK and the read option as they made it to the NFC championship with Smith at the QB position, and for all intents and purposes they didn't throw anymore than when CK took over.  It isn't a college offense, it is a power running game behind one of the best offensive lines in football.  I would call it traditional, not college.  That's why Harbaugh doesn't have CK throw more, he doesn't have to.

The real question offensively is not what CK does, it is what if Gore doesn't have it anymore through age or injury.  Hunter and James are both small backs, which leaves Lattimore and his rehab status.  He may be AP and be ready to play, but what if he's not? I suspect they can still be a punishing run based offense as long as the OL is healthy.  I can see Harbaugh open it up some given the addition of Boldin, but I'm not sure he will have to.

In many ways, I'm am hoping the Packers can get to the point that Aaron Rodgers doesn't have to throw as often as he does.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Draft Hobbyist on May 05, 2013, 07:04:51 AM
I think you mischaracterized the 49er offense.  They were successful without CK and the read option as they made it to the NFC championship with Smith at the QB position, and for all intents and purposes they didn't throw anymore than when CK took over.  It isn't a college offense, it is a power running game behind one of the best offensive lines in football.  I would call it traditional, not college.  That's why Harbaugh doesn't have CK throw more, he doesn't have to.

The real question offensively is not what CK does, it is what if Gore doesn't have it anymore through age or injury.  Hunter and James are both small backs, which leaves Lattimore and his rehab status.  He may be AP and be ready to play, but what if he's not? I suspect they can still be a punishing run based offense as long as the OL is healthy.  I can see Harbaugh open it up some given the addition of Boldin, but I'm not sure he will have to.

In many ways, I'm am hoping the Packers can get to the point that Aaron Rodgers doesn't have to throw as often as he does.

A team with a power running game with read option elements is a college offense. How many teams have been successful in recent history with power running game? The NFL is now a passing league. You may think I mischaracterize their offense, but I think you mislabel their offense. Even with your characterization I see it as a college offense. The NFL is a passing league. I refuse to look at RB play over QB play as an indicator of how well a team will do next year. The key is the QB. If Gore does phenomenally and Kaepernick does poorly, that will not win SFO a Super Bowl. If Kaepernick doesn phenomenally and Gore does poorely, SFO could still win a Super Bowl. Gore is not going to be better than Adrian Peterson was last season, and MIN barely got into the playoffs last year. They've had Peterson for how long and haven't been a serious contender. I think your looking at the RB position over the QB position is a very, very flawed argument for the NFL.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Twain on May 05, 2013, 08:20:51 AM
I'm not sure why you need to twist what I say.

A team that was successful with the power running game?  The 2011 49ers.  And just to point out the obvious, they went farther in the playoffs than the "passing league" offense of the Packers.  A team like the 49ers that has been to the championship game one year, and the super bowl the next is obviously successful.

I'm not looking at running back play over QB play.  I'm looking at team play.  It's more than the QB. 

Minnesota didn't have the defense, or the dominant OL that the 49ers had.  And to your point, CK is better than Ponder.  Thus my point: CK may not be great but he is good enough.

You can call it a "college offense" if you want, but I don't buy it.  And to think that teams gearing up to shut down the read option is going to shut them down this year is an oversimplification.  To stop them, a team is going to need a top level front against the run and a secondary that can take away Crabtree, Davis and Boldin.  The read option is just another twist that was added based on CK's ability.
Title: Re: This year's offseason champion? And the results from the past 4
Post by: Draft Hobbyist on May 05, 2013, 03:44:00 PM
I'm not sure why you need to twist what I say.

A team that was successful with the power running game?  The 2011 49ers.  And just to point out the obvious, they went farther in the playoffs than the "passing league" offense of the Packers.  A team like the 49ers that has been to the championship game one year, and the super bowl the next is obviously successful.

I'm not looking at running back play over QB play.  I'm looking at team play.  It's more than the QB. 

Minnesota didn't have the defense, or the dominant OL that the 49ers had.  And to your point, CK is better than Ponder.  Thus my point: CK may not be great but he is good enough.

You can call it a "college offense" if you want, but I don't buy it.  And to think that teams gearing up to shut down the read option is going to shut them down this year is an oversimplification.  To stop them, a team is going to need a top level front against the run and a secondary that can take away Crabtree, Davis and Boldin.  The read option is just another twist that was added based on CK's ability.

It seems you forgot the original point of our discussion, which is if SEA is considered a fluke than SFO needs to be considered a fluke as well. I agree that CK is "good enough", so that is not in debate here. I mean, Trent Dilfer was good enough, so SFO might be able to win despite CK not being elite. Also, if the only team you can list that has been successful with a power running game is SFO then I rest my case, as using SFO's offense to prove SFO's offense seems flawed. Teams that have been successful and have actually won Super Bowls recently with a passing attack: Well...just look up the last bunches of Super Bowl winners.

You say that you do not value RB over QB, but this comment suggests otherwise:
Quote
The real question offensively is not what CK does, it is what if Gore doesn't have it anymore through age or injury.
That's not me twisting your words. You specifically said that the question is not about the QB (CK) it's about the RB (FG). I rest my case from here and agree to disagree with you as I'm sure neither of us are changing our minds.