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General Category => Green Bay Packers News Talk => Topic started by: packlaw on April 29, 2019, 03:51:40 PM

Title: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: packlaw on April 29, 2019, 03:51:40 PM
The draft and free agency is over and what can we surmise.  The new regime did not like the defensive makeup of the team.  The edge and front were revitalized with speedy, young athletic types.  The safeties are new.  Clearly, the new regime felt the defense was the main problem as to personnel and not scheme as the defensive coordinator was not let go.  As to the offense, the scheme was the problem for not any major changes in personnel save for a needed upgrade at guard.  Graham's successor was drafted; but Graham will be given every chance to redeem himself from last years performance.  I believe the new scheme will give him the chance to do that.  Barring injuries, this team will complete for the NFC North title despite a horrendous initial schedule.   
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: marklawrence on April 29, 2019, 04:33:00 PM
What we learned is that Gute thought there was pretty much zero talent on the defense; the problem was so severe that he's all but ignored the offence for two years.

Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on April 29, 2019, 05:32:15 PM
Total defensive makeover. The weakest positions left are ILB and maybe another CB, neither of those positions are in desperate need. Overall it is a strong young unit now.

The move for Gary showed the Packers are not trend-followers. There were some negatives around him (undeserved work ethic questions, a dyslexia disability and a damaged shoulder) and they looked past all that and took him anyway, that's bold, trusting your judgement, and no second-guessing. Trading up (for Savage) and spending 2x 4ths to do it, that was pretty bold as well. The new GM/Scouting crew are confident enough in their assessments to back themselves.

Also,
High RAS score players still a Packers strong preference. Confirmed.
Height minimums at safety less important than at CB. Confirmed.
High importance placed on positional versatility. Confirmed.

Any bets on whether the first pick next year is a RT ?
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: Smokey on April 29, 2019, 06:40:25 PM
Well I've learned that unless you say what everyone is saying your likely to get punished.
So what is the politically correct Packer line of the day?
Rah Rah Rah, I'm a team player, go pack go.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: RT on April 29, 2019, 07:00:41 PM
Well I've learned that unless you say what everyone is saying your likely to get punished.
So what is the politically correct Packer line of the day?
Rah Rah Rah, I'm a team player, go pack go.

I don't believe I have ever seen you post here, but I'm not following the point you are attempting to make. I see 3 posting by people that echo the teams want/need to improve the defense, is that the politically correct line of the day?
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: Brandon2348 on April 29, 2019, 07:01:52 PM
I have some serious concerns. This could turn into a very long post to explain exactly how I feel because there are so many components but I will keep it as compact as I can. They have really overcompensated so many premium resources on the defense(free agency this year and the draft for years now ) that I believe this offense lacks playmakers. Gone are the days of the fantastic five which has morphed into Devante Adams and a bunch of JAG's. If an injury finds Devante the offense could seriously sputter and it could quickly become another long season. On top of that I believe the front office has failed to get Rodgers the weapons on offense that he deserves. I believe Rodgers to be a generational talent.  Michael Jordan scored a a lot of points and was a very exciting player but until they got him the necessary playmakers around him the Bulls got bounced out of the playoffs rather early.

The Packers had a legitimate shot to get Parris Campbell, Dk Metcalf or AJ Brown in the draft. All three I believe would of been an upgrade over what we have now. I don't even know who the slot is going to be now that Cobb is gone. I am sure they have a plan but is it going to be enough? Then you throw in all the rules that are continually favoring the offense and I don't understand the 10 year plan we have been on to build and elite defense.y

The Packers basically spent almost 200 million dollars on defense and then mortgaged there 4th round picks to get yet another defensive player which in turn took away all our firepower to move up on day 2 and get one of the premium receivers that were available. I'm sorry but I just don't like it.

I will if the defense becomes elite and carries us to another Lombardi but after what I have been through with this defense in recent years I am going to have to see it to believe it. I don't believe any team in the league has spent more capital on there defense over the past few seasons then the Packers. It needs to pay off now or we could be in big trouble.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: B on April 30, 2019, 12:51:15 AM
Well I've learned that unless you say what everyone is saying your likely to get punished.
So what is the politically correct Packer line of the day?
Rah Rah Rah, I'm a team player, go pack go.

I guess if one equates differing opinions as "punishment." ::)

State and support whatever opinion one holds - that is what generates interesting thread discussions. Who gives a rat's arse if others disagree? Unless one is trolling or has incredibly thin skin. 8)
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on April 30, 2019, 02:32:48 AM
@Brandon2348.
Nothing that you say is wrong, but how the Packers stand at WR depends on how you look at it.

From my perspective, the Pack have exciting talent in MVS and ESB coming into year two. They have J'Mon Moore, who is an unknown at the moment. Allison and Kumerow will never be elite, but they are decent depth. Spending a really high pick on WR might be a little premature, until you get to see what last years rookies can do in year two. It may not be what YOU want, but there is plenty of potential to be coached up.

This years draft was a defense-heavy one at the top, which is partly why the Packers did what they did on draft day (Gute actually said that). I'm guessing the Packers go OT early next year, very likely in round one, while round two would be a likely target for WR if none of MVS/ESB/Moore pan out, they may even go there early if one or more does rise up.

One of the advantages of going so heavy on defense is that there isn't much in the way of real needs there now, just lots of high quality, young guys. You can't fix everything at once, and I can see why the Packers did what they did this year, allowing the WRs they have to mature. Maybe the Packers stumble this year due to a lack of overall talent at WR, maybe they shine as the young guys learn their stuff and take a step- I don't know which applies and neither do you, at this time.

As for the 2x 4ths the Packers used to go up and get Savage, well the ability to play single high safety is really, REALLY rare in the NFL, but Savage has the tools to do it at an NFL level. The Packers liked him so much they paid a steep price for him. They could easily have waited and got the 2nd/3rd/4th best FS, by waiting until one or two of the top five FS guys came off the board, before going and getting one, or they could have waited at #30 or #44 and got the best remaining one............ IF THAT WAS WHAT THEY WANTED.  They didn't want to do that, which tells you how much they wanted Savage. It's like the Clay Matthews trade-up all over again, and he worked out ok.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: ChicagoPackerFan on April 30, 2019, 06:57:48 AM
As OneTwoSixFive mentioned bellow we have three young WRs drafted last year that need to be given a another year to see if they show  better production. We also have a new TE that should be able to make some contribution this year. Sternberger supposedly is a smooth accurate route runner, we know Rodgers places a great amount of stock in his receivers running precise routes.

If they need better production from the receiving corps going into next year, look for them to draft a higher round WR next year.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: ChicagoPackerFan on April 30, 2019, 07:04:59 AM
A much better defense can also improve your offense... better field position, more offensive possessions, require less points to win games, and reduce pressure on offense to score quickly.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: The GM on April 30, 2019, 07:38:37 AM
I got no issues with the trade up for Savage.  I applaud Gute for going up for a player with his tools.  They need impact players on defense, and he went for it, rather than sit back and draft a JAG. A guy like that can really change a defense if he develops. JMO.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on April 30, 2019, 09:56:52 AM
Brandon, thanks for thoughtful post.  I agree, the investment in offense has been really lacking.  All of our investments have been in defense for many, many years now.  Over the last ten drafts, Bulaga, Spriggs, and Adams are the only 1st/2nd-day draft picks on the roster prior to Jenkins and Jace.  In a sense, spending both a 2nd AND a 3rd round draft pick on offense, (and those not late-round picks as in years past) is actually the most aggressive commitment to offense this decade! 

It's been noted what a big emphasis there has been on defensive speed.  That has not translated to offense.  Jones, Williams aren't combine-fast.  MVS is fast, and Davis.  But ESB isn't that fast or quick for a receiver; his speed is good **for his height**, but it's not like he's going to out-run or out-quick your average NFL slot receiver or anything like that.  Adams isn't fast.  Moore isn't especially fast.  Kumerow, Allison either. 

Hopefully the defense will be great, and Rodgers a game-manager who creates enough magic plays.  But I think the pure TALENT on offense, apart from QB, isn't great and hasn't been getting much help.  **IF** Rodgers doesn't play great, and it's not sure that he can anymore, the offense could struggle. 

HOpefully I'm wrong and it's no problem.  Hopefully Rodgers rediscovers accuracy, and recovers a capacity to see the field and both see and accurately hit receivers other than just Adams, and can occasionally throw a decent deep ball and convert on an occasional big play.  HOpefully Jones and Williams are really good and productive.  HOpefully Billy Turner is a stud, and Bakhti and Bulaga are both healthy.  Graham catches what he can reach.  And hopefully ESB and MVS and Allison, maybe even Moore, play with confidence, and the new system gets them open, and they and Rodgers emerge as high-end, Super-Bowl-competitive pass-and-catch combination that's plenty talented and isn't even remotely talent deficient.  Who knows. 

So, I'm hopeful that the offense will be pretty good, and with 1265 that the sophomore receivers will step it up big-time. 

But that is something of a gamble. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on April 30, 2019, 10:04:00 AM
1265, one of your points is to let the season play out, and figure out whether the sophomores can really do it.  Find out how good they can be. 

The risk there is that you don't really know based on year one; because often receivers aren't great as rookies, and take some time.  The risk there is that *IF* we find that they really aren't more than 3/4/5 type receivers, then we're starting from scratch next year, and starting a new it-takes-a-couple-of-years? process with new draftees. 

It may be that ESB just isn't really that quick or elusive, and has a somewhat inconsistent motor.  That MVS is fast, but just isn't very shifty or elusive, isn't really coordinated, and doesn't have very good hands.  That Moore just doesn't have playable NFL hands.  And that Rodgers just never clicks with or trusts any of them. 

Really, really desirable that they click and emerge; but the offense is pretty much in the hurt bag if they don't, probably for not just one but at least two years more if so. 

HOpes high.  Confidence less high!
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on April 30, 2019, 10:45:31 AM
I quite agree that we don't know how the season plays out. I also agree that WRs take time to develop. The Packers last two great receivers, Nelson and Adams each took time, it was their third year when they first really shone. Who you choose to draft is always a balancing act, and even the best GMs get it wrong, but a decision has to be made who to pick, right or wrong, so it is a balancing of many things.

I wasn't thrilled with the WRs available at #44. Pick #30 was out of play, as the Packers were intent on getting 'their guy' Savage, whose skills are very rare. Pick #12 was out of play, as no WR was worth that value.

If I was building a receiver to best complement Adams, they would have a good sized catch radius, being around 6'2"-6'3" (bigger than that usually means rounded off cuts, tighter hips) but big enough be a red zone threat. They would be a good hands catcher, able to pluck the ball outside their frame with solid grip-strength to keep a hold of the ball in a contested catch situation. They would be good tracking the ball in flight and adjusting (a much underappreciated trait in receivers). Finally they would be fast, able to eat up cushions quickly, and too fast to be easily caught if the defender puts a foot wrong.

While Packers crave speed at DB (they have serious speed there now) to stay with/catch up to, fast receivers, they have never really gone for WR burners. ESB and MVS are as close as they have come for ages, so maybe their parameters have changed a bit with Gute as GM.  Here are this years WR contenders Parris Campbell is a true burner (went at #59) fights the ball, struggles to get off press coverage, and could do with another 2" and 10lbs. He isn't a good route runner either. For me, speed alone just isn't enough. Isabella is fast as well (4.31 40), but he is a slot-only guy (at 5'9", 188lbs).

The other flier was D.K.Metcalf. He IS the size/weight you want (6'3", 228) jumps through the roof and has speed to burn  (4.33 40). Like so many speedsters, he drops more balls than he should, but the most worrying thing about him are the season ending injuries, foot (worrying if it is a lisfranc as it tends to re-occur), and neck (that is very worrying, all neckbone injuries are dangerous, the lower the number of the vertebra affected the worse it is (the lower the number the higher up in the neck it is). Usually it is the C3/4/5/6 vertebra that are damaged. C3 or C4 are the absolute worst, 5/6 are still dangerous but less than 3/4 (Nick Collins career-ender was a C3). Even with his limited route tree, even with his very poor 3cone, even with his average hands, and less than stellar production, I could have been interested in that size/weight/speed, but those specific injuries were a step too far for me, at #44. the fact that he was drafted as low as 64th with his measurables, says other teams had their reservations as well.

The best 'bang for the buck', might have been Terry McLaurin. 6'0", 205 lbs, 4.35 speed. Was available with the Packers 3rd round pick #75 (he went the next pick). His hands are ok, not great, he is strong in reading the ball in-flight, and, can make nice cuts and runs a full route tree. Has a good competitive attitude and no injury or character red flags I am aware of. The Packers went TE Jace Sternberger instead, a greater need, as Graham and Lewis are almost certainly gone after 2019.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on April 30, 2019, 11:02:19 AM
Nice detail, thanks.  Yeah, high-ish picks are rare and precious, and you never have enough to get all the plaers and position groups you want. 

Like most other teams, we've got to hope that the sophomores emerge beautifully.  That's the kind of thing that happens with teams that end up winning big; a disproportionate number of question marks turn out golden.  That's what we need with ESB, MVS, Moore, Allison, Kumerow, Jace, Turner, Taylor, Jenkins, Bulaga, and certainly Rodgers too.  And for teams who have really big individual seasons, that also often correlates with a disproportionately low number of crippling irreplaceable injuries.  Being the packers, I always hope for the latter, but never expect it!  :)

If the receivers turn out to be really good ascending quality players, AND if Rodgers bounces back as a really good QB with accuracy and good decision-making, the offense could be very good, good enough to make the playoffs when coupled with a talented defense. 

But if the receivers prove to be just be a bunch of JAGs who make a lot of mistakes, and Rodgers is a struggling, bad-decision-making inaccurate thrower, with no deep-ball, the offense is going to struggle.

That's why we play the season, who knows!
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: OneTwoSixFive on April 30, 2019, 11:20:32 AM
quote "But if the receivers prove to be just be a bunch of JAGs who make a lot of mistakes, and Rodgers is a struggling, bad-decision-making inaccurate thrower, with no deep-ball, the offense is going to struggle."

Yep, if none of the current receivers take a step, and the offense continues to struggle, it could scupper the Packers for years. Draft a good receiver next year, give him two years to become good and by the time he breaks out like a butterfly, it is 2022. Fingers crossed (and legs.....and toes) that it all goes better than that.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: B on April 30, 2019, 02:35:21 PM
Equanimeous St. Brown runs a 4.48 40 Where did the idea he lacks speed come from? You mix that with being 6'5" and that boy can fly.

Marquez Valdes- Scantling runs a 4.38. He was as green as grass as a rookie not playing against top notch competition  in college. I think there is every reason to expect a much more refined route runner in year two.

J'mon Moore spent the entire offseason working on improving explosiveness, refining route-running and improving his concentration. He was a beast in college,  he's doing everything in his power to catch up to the pro game and to be ready to compete right out of the gate in season two.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: TAYLORBOY on April 30, 2019, 03:33:10 PM
What have we learned?????
I think Gute did a 180 and actually secured FA's and drafted players that fit the D scheme....I find that refreshing. Most all of the D players signed as FA or drafted was players Petitine would pick himself or fits the mold he needs.. most all of our draft picks and FA's signed as DL/OLB can play up and down the line...mix and match to each situation...

What I REALLY liked was we didn't trade down when we had a good fit/talented player at the pick...James last YR...Watt the yr before...and this yr we still chased a player to play their positions because someone else could do later because of the trade downs.

I never thought TT gave Capers the TYPE of players needed for his Defense....maybe Capers D scheme was too rigid to find enough "right" players to really make it work.

I worry more about our RB's in this O scheme than the WR's....hopefully gone are the days we pass pass pass punt
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on April 30, 2019, 05:47:25 PM
Equanimeous St. Brown runs a 4.48 40 Where did the idea he lacks speed come from? You mix that with being 6'5" and that boy can fly....

He's not fast... for an NFL wide receiver, that is.  He's average. 

4.48 is league average for a WR.  He's right on the dot average. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40-yard_dash

He is fast... for his height. 

His length/strength combo has a lot of advantages, so I'm very hopeful on his behalf.  Large catch radius, so if he gets a defender on his back and Rodgers throws it front, he can very effectively use his body to block off the defender, just like a basketball rebounder.  So being league-average in speed while way above average is height and reach offers some cool opportunities. 

I'm not sure that average speed with length is especially conducive to elusive stop-and-go quickness moves, though? 

So average speed, with some extra height-based advantages, and perhaps some height-based disadvantages.  Hopefully MVS, and Rodgers, are able to utilize the length-based advantages? 

I actually am more optimistic for ESB's career than MVS.  I think ESB may have better body control and coordination, and my amateur take is that his hands are much better.  Also think he's got capacity to be a really powerful blocker.  The prospect of Jones running on the outside with ESB in front of him would be really fun! 

The MVS speed could be a nice weapon and open up some opportunities, though; I hope they convert some deep balls.  May also be that his speed will prompt corners to give him big cushion, so that even when he isn't stretching deep, that he can maybe get some relatively uncontested short completions too? 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: dannobanano on April 30, 2019, 06:23:50 PM
Equanimeous St. Brown runs a 4.48 40 Where did the idea he lacks speed come from? You mix that with being 6'5" and that boy can fly....

He's not fast... for an NFL wide receiver, that is.  He's average. 

4.48 is league average for a WR.  He's right on the dot average. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40-yard_dash

He is fast... for his height. 

His length/strength combo has a lot of advantages, so I'm very hopeful on his behalf.  Large catch radius, so if he gets a defender on his back and Rodgers throws it front, he can very effectively use his body to block off the defender, just like a basketball rebounder.  So being league-average in speed while way above average is height and reach offers some cool opportunities. 

I'm not sure that average speed with length is especially conducive to elusive stop-and-go quickness moves, though? 

So average speed, with some extra height-based advantages, and perhaps some height-based disadvantages.  Hopefully MVS, and Rodgers, are able to utilize the length-based advantages? 

I actually am more optimistic for ESB's career than MVS.  I think ESB may have better body control and coordination, and my amateur take is that his hands are much better.  Also think he's got capacity to be a really powerful blocker.  The prospect of Jones running on the outside with ESB in front of him would be really fun! 

The MVS speed could be a nice weapon and open up some opportunities, though; I hope they convert some deep balls.  May also be that his speed will prompt corners to give him big cushion, so that even when he isn't stretching deep, that he can maybe get some relatively uncontested short completions too?

ESB is average for his grouping (WR and CB), but those two position groups are the fastest in the NFL, followed closely by RB.

Not sure if that matters, but just making an observation.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: SET4YRS on April 30, 2019, 07:02:41 PM
 With the strength of free agency and the draft being defense, Gutey went with it. Pettine did well last year dealing with all the injuries and a sputtering offense that didn't do well consistently on sustained drives. Really excited to see how it plays out this year, should be a special defense. The trade up for Jaire last year was genius, if Savage has anything near that type of impact, look out. Lots of quality front seven players to rotate in and wear down offensive linemen and get pressure.

 Hoped we would add another WR, but you can't have it all when you're paying one of the most expensive QB's and drafts don't fall as planned. Just glad Parris Campbell didn't go in the NFC North. Sounds like the rookies from last year are working really hard, I really hope they reach their potential. MM's offense was hard on young players, hopefully MLF's is a bit more friendly. They want to run the ball, so the slot looks to be a rotational position between Adams, TE's and big bully WR's for blocking. Should be a good system with safeties staying back because of Rodgers and confusing for young players on the opposing defense.

 Will be very interesting to see who shines in the new blocking schemes on the O-Line. Think Jenkins could probably start at RG if needed.

Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: B on April 30, 2019, 10:21:45 PM
Odell Beckham Jr's 4.43 was the 7th fastest at the combine
DeAndre Hopkins 4.57
Michael Thomas 4.57
Keenan Allen 4.71
Davante  Adams 4.57
A.J. Green, Bengals 4.5

Once again, at 6'5" Equanimeous St. Brown's 4.48 stacks up quite well
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: B on April 30, 2019, 10:26:14 PM
Odell Beckham Jr's 4.43 was the 7th fastest at the combine
DeAndre Hopkins 4.57
Michael Thomas 4.57
Keenan Allen 4.71
Davante  Adams 4.56
A.J. Green, Bengals 4.5

Once again, at 6'5" Equanimeous St. Brown's 4.48 stacks up quite well
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: Hands on May 01, 2019, 06:43:35 AM
I hate how bad the Packer's defense performed over the past few years. Waiting for Perry to get healthy, HHCD to get back to being a solid safety, CMIII getting back to dominating as a pass rusher, for the CB's to start covering better. They never did and we are seeing what many were seeing for years...Green Bay didn't have talent in the defense except for a player or two.
That was OK, because Rodgers was still the QB and he can erase that need....not really.

So responding to the subject, Gutsy had to improve the defense. Pettine and Capers before him couldn't make a NFL quality defense out of 2nd to 4th tiered players. The last two seasons Gutsy has tried to improve the team when and where the opportunities have arose. Last year, the CBs and WRs were strengthen. Everyone expected the DBs to improve, but seriously how many of us felt that the WR corp would get that kind of production from that group of rookies? Last year, the "draft experts" had ESB going in the second or third round. Look where Green Bay took him. MVS was a fast receiver....so what? How many fast receivers are now serving hamburgers at a fast food store, or doing landscape work? My point is Gutsy turned around two different position groups with the draft. This year he turned around the OLBs/Edge, Safeties, and the Oline.

Will the Packers play better defense right away? I think they will because you have the vets mixed with the 2nd year improvement guys and rookies adding their talents to the mix. Will the Packer's play better offense this year? Yes, because Rodgers is healthy, the Oline will be stronger, and the 2nd year leap with the WRs.

Just to be clear...this isn't the best team in the NFL, but they will compete every game and that defense will strangle teams trying to make come-backs in the 4th qtr unlike years past.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: dannobanano on May 01, 2019, 06:54:05 AM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robreischel/2019/04/29/the-green-bay-packers-defense-looks-like-a-top-10-outfit/#31b42ee82631

"I’m excited about Mike Pettine and the second-year guys we have in his system, but with the additions we’ve made I think we’re very optimistic about what these guys can do.”
Pettine has always liked players that can excel from different spots on the field. He wants guys that can shine in multiple roles.
Suddenly, with the free agent additions and a draft that leaned to the defensive side, Pettine has those people.
“I know you guys watched us last year,” Gutekunst said. “Mike’s big on moving pieces and stuff like that and I thought we had to get a lot more pieces for him to move around.
“They’re going to have to come together and there’s a lot of timing involved in it and different kinds of things, but I feel much better now than I did previously.”
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 07:23:24 AM
..."I’m excited about Mike Pettine and the second-year guys we have in his system....”
Pettine has always liked players that can excel from different spots on the field. He wants guys that can shine in multiple roles....
“I know you guys watched us last year,” Gutekunst said. “Mike’s big on moving pieces and stuff like that and I thought we had to get a lot more pieces for him to move around."

Many references to Pettine and his system.  Sometimes even if an old assistant coach stays under a new head coach for the first year, that isn't always a long-term thing.  Maybe the two don't click; maybe the head coach wants his own guy, or wants a guy with a different philosophy, or whatever.  Maybe the assistant coach wants to work under somebody else, or whatever. 

But man, it sure seems like Gute and the scouts were very much drafting for Pettine, and assume he's going to be a long-term fixture. 

I like that.  Pettine seems smart and capable.  And he seems like a good man.  MLF does too, so I'm encouraged that Gute, MLF, and Pettine all seem to be in sync, and to respect and trust each other.  Seems very healthy. 

I also think some consistency of scheme, and of personnel with scheme, seems healthy and promising. 

Partly I think that speaks to Pettine.  A capable guy who's been a head coach, but who isn't aspiring to return to that role.  **IF** he was ambitious to get a head coaching opportunity, you might not be able to plan on him being around for a while.  Think Pettine is unusual, and I admire him for it, for loving what he does without aspiring to become head coach. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 07:39:03 AM
..
DeAndre Hopkins 4.57
Michael Thomas 4.57
Keenan Allen 4.71
Davante  Adams 4.57
A.J. Green, Bengals 4.5

Once again, at 6'5" Equanimeous St. Brown's 4.48 stacks up quite well

Yes, exactly.  A lot of tall, long guys who are really good without having average or plus speed (for a WR.)  Like I said, he's average... relative to WR.  He's above average..... relative to WR of his height or close.

And I think we all get the obvious:  speed is only one component, of many, that factor into good NFL play.  Both as a WR, as a RB, as a TE, or as a defensive player.  Every team has UDFA receivers in camp with faster times than Davante and Keenan Allen.  If it was all about speed, Davante wouldn't be a star. 

Each of those guys you list with the below-average speed has other qualities that are really good, and that enable them to excel. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 07:43:56 AM
I'm sure hoping that proves true with ESB as well.  I do think it's possible.  He does NOT seem to have the shiftiness that Adams has, to my amateur eyeball.  But my subjective amateur eyeball suggests that he does have really, really good hands, hands that could enable him to make a whole lot of difficult catches.  And my subjective optimistic amateur eyeball also suggests that he's got really good body control, body balance, coordination.  There have also been stories of photographic memory and mental capacity.  So I'm really hopeful that those qualities, combined with his size and average-for-WR-speed-but-plus-speed-for-6'5", will enable him to emerge as a high-end NFL receiver, a #1 or #2 type guy. 

We'll see whether Rodgers is the right guy for that?  I think length-height-hands are somewhat best matched with QB's who are more touch and accuracy than velocity, and who are comfortable with throwing high.  Brees and Brady aren't throwing rockets, so a coordinated receiver has a little more time to block out and use the body balance to make the catch.  And they are good with throwing high to let tall guys go get it.  Rodgers is faster and less accurate, and to my amateur view has never loved throwing high, or using the middle of the field.  So maybe not the ideal, perfect match for ESB's skillset? 

But hopefully mutual trust/respect will develop, and MLF will be able to scheme things to take max advantage of both of their skillsets.  ESB emerging as a consistent, steady, well-used target would be invaluable, if it happened. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: RT on May 01, 2019, 07:55:42 AM
..."I’m excited about Mike Pettine and the second-year guys we have in his system....”
Pettine has always liked players that can excel from different spots on the field. He wants guys that can shine in multiple roles....
“I know you guys watched us last year,” Gutekunst said. “Mike’s big on moving pieces and stuff like that and I thought we had to get a lot more pieces for him to move around."

Many references to Pettine and his system.  Sometimes even if an old assistant coach stays under a new head coach for the first year, that isn't always a long-term thing.  Maybe the two don't click; maybe the head coach wants his own guy, or wants a guy with a different philosophy, or whatever.  Maybe the assistant coach wants to work under somebody else, or whatever. 

But man, it sure seems like Gute and the scouts were very much drafting for Pettine, and assume he's going to be a long-term fixture. 

I like that.  Pettine seems smart and capable.  And he seems like a good man.  MLF does too, so I'm encouraged that Gute, MLF, and Pettine all seem to be in sync, and to respect and trust each other.  Seems very healthy. 

I also think some consistency of scheme, and of personnel with scheme, seems healthy and promising. 

Partly I think that speaks to Pettine.  A capable guy who's been a head coach, but who isn't aspiring to return to that role.  **IF** he was ambitious to get a head coaching opportunity, you might not be able to plan on him being around for a while.  Think Pettine is unusual, and I admire him for it, for loving what he does without aspiring to become head coach.

Their should be a bit of caution here. The Packers are putting a ton of resources into getting 'Pettine type guys' and if the Packers have a vastly improved defense the coming season, their is probably a good chance Pettine is a strong candidate for a head coaching job. And the Packers just put 118M in a pair of run stopping EDGE players that are not great rushers of the passer.

Yes, I have heard all the lip service about how he is happy being a DC and been there done that as a HC, but their is not a single high end competitor on the planet that failed at something and is just fine with it. The failing as a HC is eating at his soul and regardless of his being the good Lieutenant now, if the chance to become the commanding General again come along he will take it in a heartbeat. Does the next DC have a new type of player he likes? He will without a doubt have guys he prefers that are different than Pettine does. Does he want more edge pressure, more of a speed rushing type? Less man and more zone coverage, now a different CB type.

Their is a reason a GM should be drafting the BPA and not just catering to a coach. A year from now he may well wish he had.   
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: Brandon2348 on May 01, 2019, 09:52:13 AM
As OneTwoSixFive mentioned bellow we have three young WRs drafted last year that need to be given a another year to see if they show  better production. We also have a new TE that should be able to make some contribution this year. Sternberger supposedly is a smooth accurate route runner, we know Rodgers places a great amount of stock in his receivers running precise routes.

If they need better production from the receiving corps going into next year, look for them to draft a higher round WR next year.

The Packer have some young talent at WR but lack PREMIUM TALENT there. They once again completely overlooked the position in this off season thus far.  Barring some trade we have what we have.  They have gotten away from drafting receivers in the second round and have used day 3 to stock the shelves which has caused an overall regression at the position.  This offense IMO is not set up for a 16 game season to be successful and last year flashed that.  La'Fleur could help with his simpler schemes but at least one of the younger guys is going to have a huge leap and surprise us for success.

There were guys there for the picking in round 2 and the Packers could not capitalize and maneuver up because of the trade for Savage. Overall not upgrading us at this position and giving Rodgers the talent he deserves around him could lead to a rough 2019 is my opinon.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: TAYLORBOY on May 01, 2019, 10:42:25 AM
Good article on Savage

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/04/30/packers-darnell-savage-among-best-team-player-fits-in-2019-nfl-draft/
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: RT on May 01, 2019, 10:49:54 AM
As OneTwoSixFive mentioned bellow we have three young WRs drafted last year that need to be given a another year to see if they show  better production. We also have a new TE that should be able to make some contribution this year. Sternberger supposedly is a smooth accurate route runner, we know Rodgers places a great amount of stock in his receivers running precise routes.

If they need better production from the receiving corps going into next year, look for them to draft a higher round WR next year.

The Packer have some young talent at WR but lack PREMIUM TALENT there. They once again completely overlooked the position in this off season thus far.  Barring some trade we have what we have.  They have gotten away from drafting receivers in the second round and have used day 3 to stock the shelves which has caused an overall regression at the position.  This offense IMO is not set up for a 16 game season to be successful and last year flashed that.  La'Fleur could help with his simpler schemes but at least one of the younger guys is going to have a huge leap and surprise us for success.

There were guys there for the picking in round 2 and the Packers could not capitalize and maneuver up because of the trade for Savage. Overall not upgrading us at this position and giving Rodgers the talent he deserves around him could lead to a rough 2019 is my opinon.

You seem to be obsessing about draft status HERE, if MVS and ESB were drafted in the second round would they now be PREMIUM TALENT? Because Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Kenny Stills, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill were all drafted in the 5th, 6th or 7th rounds, does that mean they are not PREMIUM TALENT?

The Packers seem to think that they are fine at WR. I am not attempting to be rude here, but maybe you should ask yourself the question of why are the Packers comfortable with their WR position and seek your answers there. Rather than assuming that you are wiser than the decision making people for the Packers that have all the information.

As I stated before, the trade for Savage did not stop the Packers from drafting a WR if that was what they had wanted to do. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 11:29:59 AM
RT, you may be correct that "the Packers seem to think that they are fine at WR."  (And if you have inside contacts telling you exactly that, and were at liberty to share, that would be really interesting for us to hear!) 

But I don't think your logic necessitates that conclusion? 

A team may have perhaps more than four position groups that are variably needful and "less than fine".  But they had a finite four high draft choices.  That they spent those on four spots that were desperately needful, and didn't have any left to spend, doesn't prove that WR is necessarily "fine".  It may be "less than fine", but they just didn't have any bullets let. 

Hopefully it will play out to be "fine" indeed, and ESB and MVS will emerge as premium players.  But the application of limited resources elsewhere doesn't ensure that. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 11:58:39 AM
...Their should be a bit of caution here. The Packers are putting a ton of resources into getting 'Pettine type guys' ....

Yes, I have heard all the lip service about how he is happy being a DC ...., but their is not a single high end competitor on the planet that failed at something and is just fine with it. The failing as a HC is eating at his soul .....

Their is a reason a GM should be drafting the BPA and not just catering to a coach. A year from now he may well wish he had.

Strong points, RT, thanks.  Yeah, it's partly why I've been so surprised at how much they've commented on "Pettine-type guys", and what Pettine wants to do, and how much they've talked about getting guys that suit his system.  I agree with you, there are coaches who really value fast OLB speed around the edge, rather than the collection of d-linemen none of whom are sack-master edge rushers, or superlative arc-rushing threats. 

Gute may be an idiot, and may come to regret what he's done.  But I'd like to hope he's **not** super dumb?  So what if he's hypothetically not dumb, yet he still talks as if Pettine's system is going to last? 

*He may argue that his acquisitions are useful in *any* system? 
*He'd argue that he **has** been drafting BPA, and not just "catering to coach"? 
*They may be committed to Pettine's views regardless of whether Pettine remains as the commanding general; maybe even if he left, they'll just hire another guy with equivalent schemes and philosophy?

Whatever, it just struck me how the talk suggests they anticipate Pettine-perspective is likely to persevere beyond this season.   
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: ricky on May 01, 2019, 12:16:03 PM
Whatever, it just struck me how the talk suggests they anticipate Pettine-perspective is likely to persevere beyond this season.

Very probably true. The Packers tend to keep coaches around for quite some time. And that the new HC was given his DC, rather than let him bring in someone else, spoke volumes. Sure, MLF was almost assuredly aware that Pettine was going to stay, but was he also aware that the first two picks would be for defense? Who was more important in the decision making process? Seems like PEttine rather than MLF. So, if Capers could last nine years, with a gradually disintegrating defense (not all his fault, because some of those draft picks were just not good), it seems that Pettine will get a chance to lead the defense for a while.

As far as WR, it seems the Packers are at minimum OK. The two rookies from last year who got some play time (except for Moore, who has reportedly been working his butt off this off season to improve) will have a year of experience under their belt. They'll be learning new things, sure, but so will the rest of the team. And Rodgers has had a year to get used to those guys. Add in that Allison, who seemed to be developing a strong rapport with AR will be back, and the team should be fine. But then again, this is the season of optimism. Even Browns fans are talking playoffs (at a minimum). Besides, all we can do is trust the people in charge know what they're doing, though I'm sure they really appreciate all the suggestions from this and other Packers fan sites.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: Donzo on May 01, 2019, 01:52:49 PM
Odell Beckham Jr's 4.43 was the 7th fastest at the combine
DeAndre Hopkins 4.57
Michael Thomas 4.57
Keenan Allen 4.71
Davante  Adams 4.57
A.J. Green, Bengals 4.5

Once again, at 6'5" Equanimeous St. Brown's 4.48 stacks up quite well


Excellent post... ESB is definitely better than an average athlete as a NFL WR.

Besides his 4.48 40 time, he's a very loose athlete with excellent body control. He's also faster than his 40 time. He was 100 meter guy in HS before he concentrated on football. Which means his long speed is very good... The opposite of that was Cobb. At one time he was pretty fast in a short spurt, but slowed down pretty quick. Overall, he was slower than his 40 time.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: Donzo on May 01, 2019, 02:02:46 PM
The draft and free agency is over and what can we surmise.


Even though some fans have concerns about the WR's, a lot of good discussion in this thread about that concern, I don't believe the Packers are concerned.

As I just posted in the draft forum, the Packers complete inaction in acquiring new talent at WR speaks volumes to me... Not a single new addition via free agency or the draft. IF Gute or MLF are concerned, they ignoring it; which, I don't think they do if concerned.

Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: dannobanano on May 01, 2019, 02:07:25 PM
MLF wasn't forced to keep Pettine.

They kept Pettine on staff to give MLF the option to keep or move on from Pettine. So MP's staying was MLF's decision and was not forced on him by top brass.

I know there is skepticism regarding Pettine staying long, especially if his defense should perform top notch, but I could easily see him sticking around for at least a few years.

I believe he wants a SB ring on his finger before he would entertain thoughts of taking on a HC job again. You know...............pad the resume' a little bit.


https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/11/matt-lafleur-confirms-packers-will-keep-mike-pettine-as-defensive-coordinator/
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: B on May 01, 2019, 02:31:15 PM
Ranking receivers in their rookie seasons with Aaron Rodgers

1. Davante Adams, 2014 second-round put up 38 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns was the best season a rookie receiver had with Rodgers before MVS.

2. Randall Cobb, 2011 second-round managed 25 receptions for 375 yards 1 Touchdown as a rookie

3. Jordy Nelson, 2008 the fifth pick of the second round, contributed 33 receptions for 366 yds & 2 Tds

4. Geronimo Allison, 2016 (Undrafted) Didn't play until Week 8, Allison had 12 receptions for 202 yards and 2 tds as a rookie.


NEW #1 5th-round Marquez Valdes-Scantling  38 receptions for 581 and 2 touchdowns

6th-round Equanimeous St. Brown 21 for 328 just behind Jordy Nelson








Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: ricky on May 01, 2019, 02:46:33 PM
MLF wasn't forced to keep Pettine.

They kept Pettine on staff to give MLF the option to keep or move on from Pettine. So MP's staying was MLF's decision and was not forced on him by top brass.

I know there is skepticism regarding Pettine staying long, especially if his defense should perform top notch, but I could easily see him sticking around for at least a few years.

I believe he wants a SB ring on his finger before he would entertain thoughts of taking on a HC job again. You know...............pad the resume' a little bit.


https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/11/matt-lafleur-confirms-packers-will-keep-mike-pettine-as-defensive-coordinator/

More than fair. MLF says he wanted to keep Pettine. But Pettine was well liked by players, other coaches and the execs that run the team. So, was MLF "forced" to keep Pettine? No. Just like no guy has ever been "forced" to see a chick flick because their significant other wanted to see it. It was a good move, whatever the process. It creates some continuity, and gives MLF a guy with HC experience on staff, but not a guy who is actively looking to become a HC right now.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: B on May 01, 2019, 03:00:11 PM
Ranking receivers in their rookie seasons with Aaron Rodgers

1. Davante Adams, 2014 second-round put up 38 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns was the best season a rookie receiver had with Rodgers before MVS.

2. Randall Cobb, 2011 second-round managed 25 receptions for 375 yards 1 Touchdown as a rookie

3. Jordy Nelson, 2008 the fifth pick of the second round, contributed 33 receptions for 366 yds & 2 Tds

4. Geronimo Allison, 2016 (Undrafted) Didn't play until Week 8, Allison had 12 receptions for 202 yards and 2 tds as a rookie.


NEW #1 5th-round Marquez Valdes-Scantling  38 receptions for 581 and 2 touchdowns

6th-round Equanimeous St. Brown 21 for 328 just behind Jordy Nelson

So with last season's rookies added:

1.  Marquez Valdes-Scantling 38-581-2
2. Davante Adams 38-446-3
3. Randall Cobb 25-375-1
4. Jordy Nelson 33-366-2
5. Equanimeous St. Brown  21-328-0
6. GERONIMO Allison 12-202-2
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on May 01, 2019, 03:33:19 PM
Bruce, I love that context, and I love the implication that MVS and ESB may end up having comparably great careers to Adams and Jordy, and Cobb.  Jennings had 632 yards, barely 50 more than MVS.  It would be so great for the two young men, and for Packer history, if MVS and ESB end up among the great receivers of Packers lore, comparable to those other guys on your list and to Jennings to.  Who knows the future?  It's possible. 

I do think the numbers may mislead a bit, if they suggest that expectation?  Because those are volume stats, not rate stats?  I'd be curious to see how their numbers would compare on a per-snap rate basis? 

Put differently, I'm not sure the competition for snaps was quite as challenging last year, particularly once Cobb was hurt and Allison was injured.  I don't think it was quite as competitive as when Cobb was coming in behind Jennings, Jordy, Driver, and James Jones.  AS good and exciting as he looked when he did get some action, the group was just so good and deep that there was little opportunity for him.  It was likewise a deep room for Jordy; I thought he looked really promising and interesting when he did play, as a rookie, but they had other very good players for the coaches to use. 

HOpefully those competitive rookie numbers are a precursor to great careers. 

Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless both were over 200 yards as rookies, unusually good for rookie TE's.  Opportunity-based volume numbers in their cases. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: Brandon2348 on May 01, 2019, 04:11:21 PM
1265, one of your points is to let the season play out, and figure out whether the sophomores can really do it.  Find out how good they can be. 

The risk there is that you don't really know based on year one; because often receivers aren't great as rookies, and take some time.  The risk there is that *IF* we find that they really aren't more than 3/4/5 type receivers, then we're starting from scratch next year, and starting a new it-takes-a-couple-of-years? process with new draftees. 

It may be that ESB just isn't really that quick or elusive, and has a somewhat inconsistent motor.  That MVS is fast, but just isn't very shifty or elusive, isn't really coordinated, and doesn't have very good hands.  That Moore just doesn't have playable NFL hands.  And that Rodgers just never clicks with or trusts any of them. 

Really, really desirable that they click and emerge; but the offense is pretty much in the hurt bag if they don't, probably for not just one but at least two years more if so. 

HOpes high.  Confidence less high!

Thank You and yes I agree it to be a huge gamble we did not need to take. We have Aaron Freakin Rodgers and here we are surrounding him with mostly day 3 weapons. I’m just getting worn on the whole thing and while I like our young receivers they statistically have a less of a chance of evolving. Not to say they cannot but i’m not holding my breath

https://www.colts.com/news/addition-of-parris-campbell-to-colts-offense-isn-t-fair

We should be talking about that above right now with Aaron Rodgers turning 35 soon and ditch this 10 YEAR PLAN we have been on rebuilding this defense. If this defense isn’t elite with all the capital spent on it i’m gonna be very disappointed. I have a feeling we will be kicking ourselves for years for not taking P. Campbell.
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: The GM on May 01, 2019, 04:18:36 PM
A couple things need to happen for this group to become successful.

1.  You have recognize that these 3 were rookies last year.  They should be better just from experience, I'm confident you'll see a jump from them in year 2, and maybe a huge jump in them.

2.  Rodgers needs to scan the field for the open guy regardless of who it is, and LeFleur needs to hold him accountable to hit the open guy. 

Way too many throw-aways last year and that needs to be fixed by LeFleur, Rodgers and the WRs.  JMO
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: B on May 01, 2019, 08:17:34 PM
craig, yes it would be great if these young receivers have great careers. And yes, every year is played in a different context - including these physically talented young men played with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers. All of that is part of the context of these young players rookie seasons as well..

Perhaps LeFleur and Gute are idiots who have no idea how to assess talent - since both declared that they were excited by the young talent they had at WR well before the draft, and followed that up by their actual draft priorities. If so the Packers are likely screwed, blues and tattooed regardless of MVS and ESB prospects and future performances.

Then again, perhaps Gute and LeFleur didn't just wake up one morning and find themselves GM and HC of the storied Green Bay Packers. Perhaps they know what they're doing and earned their prestigious jobs. Maybe RT is correct when he wrote:
Quote
... seem to be obsessing about draft status HERE, if MVS and ESB were drafted in the second round would they now be PREMIUM TALENT? Because Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Kenny Stills, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill were all drafted in the 5th, 6th or 7th rounds, does that mean they are not PREMIUM TALENT?


Avoiding overkill he didn't bother adding that Donald Driver was a supplemental 7th round pick or go into the number of high round Wr draft picks in the NFL that never pan out...

Obviously there are differences in assessment of the Packers WR talent here and elsewhere. I guess we will have to wait and see, in the meantime, I appreciate the discussion. 
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: WTX_Cheese on May 02, 2019, 10:13:03 AM
I'm pretty excited about the way Gutey addressed the pass rush and offensive line this offseason. Can't wait until August!
Title: Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
Post by: craig on May 02, 2019, 11:02:25 AM
.....So with last season's rookies added:
1.  Marquez Valdes-Scantling 38-581-2
2. Davante Adams 38-446-3
3. Randall Cobb 25-375-1
4. Jordy Nelson 33-366-2
5. Equanimeous St. Brown  21-328-0
6. GERONIMO Allison 12-202-2
Given how few games Allison played, his rookie production was better than Cobb or Jordy, on a per-game, and only slightly shy of Adams.  He really is one of the greatest rookie receivers.  If Allison, Adams, MVS, and ESB were all great rookies, hopefully they'll all be great non-rookies.  Four great receivers could facilitate a great offense, if matched by a great QB, a great TE, a very good line, and a pretty excellent running back as well. If only all would stay healthy, and play to their past or future or hypothetical excellence.