May 25, 2019, 07:24:19 PM

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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: DL
« Last post by B on Today at 04:27:54 PM »
The early view by some on the outside looking in is that the Packers DL is going to be very good this season. Bleacher report ranked them as the #1 DL in the NFL for 2019. This is going to be a hard group for players on the back of the depth chart to make enough of a push to over come the established players. Here is a look at who is on the current roster.

Locks - Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, Montravius Adams, Dean Lowry, Tyler Lancaster

Not everyone is going to agree with me on the idea that there are 5 locks, but all 5 bring qualities to the table that Pettine likes in his guys. Big, physical, disruptive, aggressive and play with some edge to them. The scary part is that 4 of the 5 are still on the rise and their best football is probably still ahead of them. 

In the Hunt - Kingsley Keke, James Looney, Deon Simon, Fadol Brown

I'm leaning to the idea that the Packers may keep 6 DL on the 53 this season and if that is the case than these 4 are probably playing for one spot. Keke will get the first chance because of his draft investment and short of falling on his face will be very hard to dislodge here. Looney, Simon and Brown may well be playing to showcase themselves for a roster spot elsewhere and it would not surprise me to see any or all of them on some teams 53.

It would be nice if the Packers can avoid injury with this unit, they have a chance to be a real tone-setter for this team. It all starts upfront and the Packers have the chance to win many of those battles.

goodpost RT. I for one completely agree with your locks. I also agree that Keke is the favorite if they go with 6
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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: OL
« Last post by RT on Today at 02:05:55 PM »
We have had the Lowry conversation before and him not being a core player. In the case of Allison who you know I have never been a big fan of, but he has a real chance to play himself into that core player status this season. If he proves to be a solid number 2 and nobody else is stepping up their game, well just maybe he becomes a must sign type of player for the Packers.

As for Taylor and his contract, his base salary is 3.8M for next year plus potential bonuses to 4.7M and you are correct in that would be the number teams would be looking at in a trade or the Packers in the case of keeping him in 2020 (which I incorrectly suggest it should be 3.8M). I don't know the language in the contract of the bonuses, but it is probably safe to assume that they are fairly easily obtainable. Your post had started out 'Taylor's cap hit will be $5.925 for 2020' and I was only hoping to further clarify that 5.925M was not a number that effected the Packers or a trade partner in any way other than for accounting purposes to the Packers 2020 cap. Not trying to win any argument, I think we mostly agree on a large percentage of this topic. 

I was listening to Pat Kirwan (former GM) yesterday on the NFL Network and he made the comment that when he was a GM he traded for a contract and the player just happened to come along. That is a point that I think the vast majority of fan don't understand and don't understand who the tradeable players are. The fact that a team could gain a starting IOL in Taylor at a very reasonable price without giving out any upfront money or committing to a long term deal should make his contract attractive to a team in need.

I also agree with you that a Bulaga possible return should remain on the table, but my gut feeling is that they will close the door on him after this season. Hope I am wrong.

   
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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: DL
« Last post by craig on Today at 01:38:47 PM »
Gary, Smith, and Smith are "listed" as OLB.  But to large degree several of them maybe play almost more like d-linemen. 

I wonder if their involvement and ability to play DL snaps will impact how many DL the Packers keep? 

As always, I wonder whether Keke needs to be rostered, or could be parked on practice squad.  Always kind of a mixed feeling; want a guy to look so outstanding in camp that you can't afford to PS him.  But very few guys targeted for PS actually get claimed.  Often a good way to keep developmental prospects without stressing the 53. 

Have been seeing a lot of "Montravious is on the rise" posts lately.  Hope it's true.  But I admit I wonder whether he's ever going to be taking snaps that you wouldn't be better off giving to Gary or Smith or Smith or Lowry?   
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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: OL
« Last post by craig on Today at 01:21:11 PM »
OK, sorry for one more post after two long ones!  In cap situation, danno you've got Bulaga in the third tier, as a guy you assume gone, and nowhere near the 1st-tier "core players that it would hurt to lose."

Note:  I totally get how Bulaga's been injured often, that tackles sometimes get paid highly, and that paying a big contract to a 30's guy with injury history is of questionable wisdom. 

But in terms of "core players that it would hurt to lose", I would totally include Bulaga in that pool.  He's been a very good, effective player for us for a lot of seasons, and his availability last year was good, and not really all that bad previous year either.  It really WOULD hurt to lose him.  And the cost to replace him may be costly. 

I know, maybe Jenkins and Madison and Taylor will be great, and that Turner will be such a stud that you'll be happy switching him over to OT.  It's a possibility.  Maybe Spriggs will be both terrific and will sign a a team-friendly bargain contract.  Maybe LIght is better than Bulaga.  Maybe Nijman is better than Bulaga.  Lots of "maybe". 

But I think there's a pretty reasonable chance that Bulaga will be much better than any of those guys this year, and will be much better than any of those guys in 2020 and 2021 also.  It may hurt to lose him, maybe a lot. 

And replacing him may be costly.  Spend a bundle on somebody else in FA?  Settle for much reduced play from Turner or Spriggs or Light or Nijman?  Burn an invaluable 1st or 2nd round draft choice, and even then perhaps still end up settling for reduced quality of play? 

My feeling on considering that an extension of Bulaga may, hypothetically, make sense, is based on the fact that every GM in the league knows both Bryan's birthday and his injury history.  So the exact same age/wear/durability questions that rightfully make us hesitate to spend big, also make every other GM in football hesitate to spend big. 
So, my hypothesis is that Bulaga may hypothetically end up being available at a fair-value contract that is NOT excessive or prohibitive.  And he may hypothetically give somebody a very good value-per-dollar during his 2020-2022 contract. 

I'm not saying that the Packers will or should pay Bulaga what it takes to resign him, or that he'll be a good-value player for whoever does sign him.  Who knows? 

But I am saying that we should not dismiss either the idea that the Packers will seriously consider extending him, or that the Packers will be significantly worse off if they don't. 
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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: OL
« Last post by craig on Today at 01:05:19 PM »
..Currently OTC shows the Packers with just over $16M in cap space for 2020, and that does not include the current $9M+ they have in cap space as roll over (although some of that could be used during the course of the 2019 season).  The Packers will likely move on from Jimmy Graham next year, which would add an additional $8M in cap space in 2020.

So the way that it could be viewed is that Gute could possibly have around $27M-$28M to work with for signing the key free agents that the Packers want to keep rather than lose to FA.

Here's a list of the Packer 2020 UFA's that are possible players that will receive a strong bid from Gute to keep.

1st tier targets: (Core players that it would hurt to lose)
Blake Matinez
Geronimo Allsion
Dean Lowry
Mason Crosby
(JMHO, but I think they could extend all 4 of these players, if they choose to, and structure the 1st year cap hit to be a total of around $18M, or less)

2nd tier targets: (based on how they play in 2019)
Kyler Fackrell
Jason Spriggs
Danny Vitale

UFA's that will likely be allowed to leave in UFA next year.
Mike Daniels
Brian Bulaga
Tramon Williams
Marcedes Lewis
Trevor Davis (provided he makes 2019 team)
Kapri Bibbs (ditto)

....So if Gute has around $27M to work with next year, I think it's very likely they will be able get done what they want to get done. Also have to remember that they have already agreed to pick up Kenny Clarks 5th year option. No hard numbers for that yet, but comparing to 2019 numbers, that 5th year option will likely fall in the $6M-$8M range.

Another consideration could be that **IF** the young players in the Packers secondary look to be competent as camp progresses, the Packers could release Tramon Williams prior to Week 1 of the season and gain an additional $6.375M in cap space immediately. But if he's on the roster as of week 1, than that full amount is charged to the 2019 cap. It's at least something to be an eye on.

Thanks super much, danno.  Really helpful.  Bottom line would seem to be that there is some cash to work with.  So, that's pretty encouraging and helpful to know. 

I agree with RT, if the worst of our problems are questions about retaining cats like Crosby, Lowry, and Allison, we're in a really good spot. 

I agree with RT, Crosby's contract is ready to be replaced. 

RT, you seem to be pretty confident that Taylor is a good, safe, sure $4.7; but that Allison and Lowry are pretty surely gone.  You may well be right.  I guess I see all three of those guys being in a somewhat analogous world: three guys who have played a lot; three guys who will play a lot; three guys who aren't great; three guys who might be replaced by rising younger guys; and three guys who might actually be pretty solid team guys whose younger replacement wannabe's might perhaps not be actually able to replace what they give; and three guys who won't be free, but neither are they so exciting that they are likely to command big contracts on the free market and thus won't be that costly for us to keep. 

Maybe Jenkins, Maddison, and Light will all be as good or better than Taylor?  Or maybe not?
Maybe ESB, MVS, Moore, and Kumerow will all be as good or better than Allison?  Or maybe not?
Maybe Keke and Adams will both be as good or better than Lowry?  Or maybe not?

I have no idea.  But I don't think any of those three are going to break the bank.  If Gute and MLF think "maybe not" on their replacements, it's possible that offering them fair-value contracts might make sense. 

Obviously Taylor differs in that he'll be on a last year, 1-year $4.7/1 contract.  If Lowry and/or Allison have good seasons, they might instead require 2- or 3-year commitments to resign.    So obviously always easier to accomodate 1-year commitments.  As Danno notes, of course it's also in a different way easier to accomodate a 2- or 3-year deal, in that the first-year cap hit for a multi-year-with-signing-bonus is trivial, a disproportionate fraction of the cap hit defers to years 2 etc.. 
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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: OL
« Last post by craig on Today at 12:45:46 PM »
..he has ... a salary of ...3.8M. ...

Taylor's cap hit will be $5.925 for 2020, per Spotrac.  Not crazy high, of course, and if you cut him there is still $1.25 dead cap anyway.  So basically it would save ~$4.7 in cap to cut him.  ....

The 2020 cap hit includes his prorated signing bonus and that money counts against the cap if he is on the roster or not, it is water over the dam. If he is traded, his new team is looking at his base salary and the prorated portion of the signing bonus stays with the Packers (dead cap). The 2.6M and 3.8M base salary are very affordable numbers for a starting guard in a trade. If the Packers keep him, the 4.7M includes him reaching all of his bonuses on top of his 3.8M base salary. Of course if they keep him they would probably hope that he would achieve all of his bonuses and end up costing them 4.7M. Still not a bad number for a starting LG.

I'm not sure I'm following your point, RT.  You basically repeated what I'd already said, that $1.25 in prorated signing bonus is dead cap towards the $5.9 cap hit, and that it's the other $4.7 that's at issue for the Packers cap, and likewise for any potential trade partner.

You repeatedly cite the $3.8, I'm not sure why, since I think you are well aware of bonus structure.  When discussing keep or cut/trade, $4.7 is the number, not $3.8.  (Other than a few slivers of $4.7 in case he missed games due to injury).  Listing the $3.8 repeatedly seems somewhat more like trying to win an argument or to persuade, than to objectively consider the choices the Packers will evaluate. 

It's well possible that the Packers will find him worth the $4.7. I hope that they do.  This year he was hurt a lot and I don't he played that well, but in previous years he's been a very solid performer, at $4.7 a good value. 

I'm just saying that it's possible that they won't.  That becomes increasingly possible **If** BOTH Jenkins and Madison both look really good, for example; if so, they may hypothetically feel they can let Taylor's $4.7 go, and replace him internally.  Whether by cutting; or if somebody else wants to trade something for Taylor and $4.7 of cap hit. 

That's also a possibility if Taylor as a well-used, well-worn player stacks another year compromised by more injuries.  He'll be 30 this season, and the clock ticks on.  So, he wouldn't be the first NFL guy who doesn't look as worth $4.7 in his 30's as when he was younger.  He's only a few months younger than Bulaga, for example, who many posters want to write off.   (Obviously Bulaga's had more injuries than Taylor, and is 6 months older besides, I'm not suggesting they're in the same boat.  Just that some of the age/wear-based considerations that apply to Bulaga may also increasingly be part of the Taylor decisions.) 

We may have plenty of cash.  Taylor may have a strong, healthy, very productive season.  Madison may not even make it out of camp, I have no idea. 

I emphasized that to even consider letting Taylor go after this season, I'd really want BOTH Jenkins AND Madison (or some other interior line guy, maybe Light?) to look really good.  A temptation is to say that as a 2nd rounder, you'd sure hope that Jenkins could take Taylor's spot, so why not save the $4.7?  But *IF* you simply replace Taylor with Jenkins, then you've lost the depth and injury-insurance that you just burned a high 2nd-round pick to obtain.  I think it's absolutely essential to have an extra bench interior lineman that you really like, and that won't compromise much if he injury-replaces a starter.  I get the common "what do you expect from a backup, it's hard enough to get good starters, how many teams have good starters?" argument.  But when real games are played, defensive coordinators don't give you any special mulligan for playing subs who aren't very good.  I want to keep four interior guys who are pretty much starter-quality good.  So *IF* that appeared or projected to be true for both Jenkins and Madison, (or somebody else currently on the bench, Light or somebody maybe....), Gute could perhaps allow Taylor to go, and STILL have the extra inside depth guy that I want.  But if none of Madison or Light or other IOL guys look too hot, then *if* you just replace Taylor with Jenkins a year from now, you're right back to being one injury away from playing guys like Bell or Barclay or Patrick or McCray or whomever.  Not the end of the world, but I'd rather not.  If that makes sense? 
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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: OL
« Last post by RT on Today at 08:22:36 AM »
Very good stuff danno and thanks for the work.

IMHO, I think that Martinez is the only core player there. Because of the young depth at WR, Allison will probably be allowed to go elsewhere. Same with Lowry. And Crosby is probably in his final season as a Packer, I look for Gute to replace him in the draft next year. Just think it would be a real longshot for any of the others to be back in GB in 2020.

I don't believe the cap is going to be any issue in 2020.
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Green Bay Packers News Talk / Position look: DL
« Last post by RT on Today at 08:08:50 AM »
The early view by some on the outside looking in is that the Packers DL is going to be very good this season. Bleacher report ranked them as the #1 DL in the NFL for 2019. This is going to be a hard group for players on the back of the depth chart to make enough of a push to over come the established players. Here is a look at who is on the current roster.

Locks - Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, Montravius Adams, Dean Lowry, Tyler Lancaster

Not everyone is going to agree with me on the idea that there are 5 locks, but all 5 bring qualities to the table that Pettine likes in his guys. Big, physical, disruptive, aggressive and play with some edge to them. The scary part is that 4 of the 5 are still on the rise and their best football is probably still ahead of them. 

In the Hunt - Kingsley Keke, James Looney, Deon Simon, Fadol Brown

I'm leaning to the idea that the Packers may keep 6 DL on the 53 this season and if that is the case than these 4 are probably playing for one spot. Keke will get the first chance because of his draft investment and short of falling on his face will be very hard to dislodge here. Looney, Simon and Brown may well be playing to showcase themselves for a roster spot elsewhere and it would not surprise me to see any or all of them on some teams 53.

It would be nice if the Packers can avoid injury with this unit, they have a chance to be a real tone-setter for this team. It all starts upfront and the Packers have the chance to win many of those battles.   
9
Green Bay Packers News Talk / Re: Position look: OL
« Last post by dannobanano on Today at 07:55:31 AM »
..Don't agree that Taylor's contract is an issue after this season, he has 2 years left at a salary of 2.6M and 3.8M. I think those are very manageable numbers for the Packers to keep on board until the end of his contract. ...

Taylor's cap hit will be $5.925 for 2020, per Spotrac.  Not crazy high, of course, and if you cut him there is still $1.25 dead cap anyway.  So basically it would save ~$4.7 in cap to cut him.  I hope he has a great year, and that the Packers' cap situation is better than I understand it to be, and that they don't need to be pinching pretty good starters over $4.7 savings. 

But with the Rodgers contract and the huge spikes in cap hits for the four pricey free agents this year, I'm thinking they are going to be considerably pressed for cap $$ next offseason.  Clearing $4.7 may get some consideration?

Currently OTC shows the Packers with just over $16M in cap space for 2020, and that does not include the current $9M+ they have in cap space as roll over (although some of that could be used during the course of the 2019 season).

The Packers will likely move on from Jimmy Graham next year, which would add an additional $8M in cap space in 2020.

So the way that it could be viewed is that Gute could possibly have around $27M-$28M to work with for signing the key free agents that the Packers want to keep rather than lose to FA.

Here's a list of the Packer 2020 UFA's that are possible players that will receive a strong bid from Gute to keep.

1st tier targets: (Core players that it would hurt to lose)
Blake Matinez
Geronimo Allsion
Dean Lowry
Mason Crosby
(JMHO, but I think they could extend all 4 of these players, if they choose to, and structure the 1st year cap hit to be a total of around $18M, or less)

2nd tier targets: (based on how they play in 2019)
Kyler Fackrell
Jason Spriggs
Danny Vitale

UFA's that will likely be allowed to leave in UFA next year.
Mike Daniels
Brian Bulaga
Tramon Williams
Marcedes Lewis
Trevor Davis (provided he makes 2019 team)
Kapri Bibbs (ditto)

Of the tier 1 group, the one that would hurt the most to lose would be Martinez, if they can't extend him. But how they structure contracts make all the difference in the world. Take, for instance, this years top 3 FA signings (The Smith Bro's and Amos). First year cap hit for them is as follows...……..Z. Smith-$7.25M, P. Smith-$6M, A. Amos-$5.9M.

So if Gute has around $27M to work with next year, I think it's very likely they will be able get done what they want to get done. Also have to remember that they have already agreed to pick up Kenny Clarks 5th year option. No hard numbers for that yet, but comparing to 2019 numbers, that 5th year option will likely fall in the $6M-$8M range.

Another consideration could be that **IF** the young players in the Packers secondary look to be competent as camp progresses, the Packers could release Tramon Williams prior to Week 1 of the season and gain an additional $6.375M in cap space immediately. But if he's on the roster as of week 1, than that full amount is charged to the 2019 cap. It's at least something to be an eye on.
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NFL Talk / Re: Vikings paying for Cousins deal
« Last post by RT on Today at 07:21:04 AM »
The article you are using to prove a point really doesn't help you. The article points out that Detroit has 'an out on Matthew Stafford’s contract with a $10 million dead money hit following the 2020 season' and that 'the Raiders could conceivably move on from Derek Carr with a $7.5 million hit'. If the Vikings decide to move on from Cousins after the 2020 season their dead money hit is......are you ready for this.....it is ....ZERO. Some how the writer of your article decided that 10M and 7.5M dead money hits are better than no cap hit at all. Is that one of those new math things?

As for your fixation about Cousins being cut, well he didn't get cut after one year and he won't get cut after two years, so there is no and won't be any dead money cap hit. The Vikings signed him for 3 years/84M, if the contract was 100% guaranteed or 0% guaranteed, at the end of 2020 the amount that the Vikings will have paid Cousins is the same amount, 84M.

Lastly, your narrative that the symptom (Cousins contract) is the cause of the disease (cap hell) doesn't add up. If his contract is the cause then why isn't every team with a high priced QB also in cap hell? Or is it just guaranteed money? Wait Russell Wilson just got 107M guaranteed, so what if they want to cut him now? They will eat 107M. Wait now, this newsflash just came in, it says that the Seahawks are not cutting Wilson. And neither is every single team that gave their QB a large amount of guaranteed money regardless of the percentage that is guaranteed. They made their bed and they will sleep in them, every single one of them.   
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