May 25, 2019, 07:53:50 AM

Author Topic: Biggest fall on Draft Day?  (Read 1578 times)

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Offline Noble Warrior

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Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« on: April 06, 2019, 09:52:20 PM »
Last year Josh Jackson fell to us in rd 2 after being projected by the pundits to go mid 1st. What player can you see falling like that this year?

Offline Fargofootball

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2019, 12:12:00 AM »
Not really fair to pick more than one but here it is...

With some saying the Iowa TEs (and the TE position) are overrated for 1st round selection and the supposed deep TE pool this draft I would not be surprised if Hock was there at 30 and Fant lasted till R2.

But you gotta think Polite is the "winner" (or loser) here. 

Ferguson has been dropping out of the first a for a while so maybe he doesn't really count?


Offline The GM

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2019, 09:33:00 AM »
Still fairly early to predict a fall,  the smoke season season with drug rumors, and character issues will emerge in the coming weeks.   Who knows what smoking gas mask pictures will be revealed days prior to the draft. lol 

Offline Hands

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2019, 01:14:42 PM »
I agree with Fargofootball and believe that TEs will slip. Also think Burns goes later then many think.
In the land of the blind.....the one eye man is king!

Online dannobanano

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2019, 03:32:54 PM »
I agree with Fargofootball and believe that TEs will slip. Also think Burns goes later then many think.

Question is...................how far do people think they slide?

If Hockenson is the one they want at #12 and believe he won't last past 18 and Gute can't find a trading partner to drop back to 15-17 range, do you pass on the guy you really wanted?

I'd say "no", unless a better talent was still on the board (like an Ed Oliver) at #12 that you just can't pass up.

It is believed that Hockenson's score/rank on numerous draft boards is probably a top 10. He's the #5 ranked player @  https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects

If he's BPA at #12 when Gute picks, why would you pass and hope he slides a few more spots?

Offline The GM

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2019, 04:02:00 PM »
I agree with Fargofootball and believe that TEs will slip. Also think Burns goes later then many think.

Question is...................how far do people think they slide?

If Hockenson is the one they want at #12 and believe he won't last past 18 and Gute can't find a trading partner to drop back to 15-17 range, do you pass on the guy you really wanted?


No, if hes the guy you want, you take him, unless the deal is so great you cant turn it down.    I just hope its not a TE thats at the top of their board if they pick at 12.           

Online dannobanano

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2019, 04:26:05 PM »
I agree with Fargofootball and believe that TEs will slip. Also think Burns goes later then many think.

Question is...................how far do people think they slide?

If Hockenson is the one they want at #12 and believe he won't last past 18 and Gute can't find a trading partner to drop back to 15-17 range, do you pass on the guy you really wanted?

[/quote

No, if hes the guy you want, you take him, unless the deal is so great you cant turn it down.    I just hope its not a TE thats at the top of their board if they pick at 12.         

And that’s perfectly fair, not valuing a TE that high.

I tend to think differently, that he could be an offensive weapon that this offense has lacked for years.

Many compare him to fellow Hawkeye alum, George Kittle, who put up 88 catches-1377 yds-5 TD’s last year.

If he’s that kind of player, he’s worth the #12 pick imo.

And comparing where Kittle got picked is not valid anymore.

If they did a redraft knowing/believing Kittle would put up those kinds of numbers, does anyone really think he’d still get picked in the 5th round? Plus, Hockenson is actually a more complete TE than Kittle.

The way teams view TE’s is changing, especially when you have guys getting compared to Gronk, Kielce, etc.

JMHO

Offline #66

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2019, 12:01:37 PM »
Polite is the early answer but his fall already started.  (Some may remember that I predicted his character issues coming to light.)  Dwayne Haskins is a QB that could take a tumble.  I am really not impressed.  Considering that he was initially thought of as Top 10, I would add Greedy Williams.  I do not think that he locates the ball well whatsoever.
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will. - Vince Lombardi

Offline PackerJoe

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2019, 02:17:25 PM »
QB from Ohio State might fall.  Man he reminds alot of Doug Williams!!  I think teams may be turned off because he only played one season.

Online RT

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2019, 07:41:46 AM »
This a wild guess, but I think Rashan Gary may be viewed by the media higher than teams view him. I was guilty of having him as a lock for the top 10 like the media had and for the most part still does, but I just don't see the production to match his athleticism. I see a very close physical comp to Nick Perry here with a lack of college production. IMO, I don't think he gets drafted nearly as high as many mocks are projecting for him.

With that said, I do think he would be a very good fit in Pettine's defense playing the same role that is planned for Za’Darius Smith, just wouldn't want to spend an early first round pick to get him. Think he will be a good player, just not great.

Offline The GM

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2019, 07:57:36 AM »
Is the heart issue a big deal or is this smoke?


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Montez Sweat stock bottomed out due to team medicals. Have heard from a few clubs that have him off the board. Of course it only takes one team, but the expectation now is he will drop. Could fall out of Round 1

Offline Hands

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2019, 08:09:17 AM »
I feel stupid putting in another topic about this. My feelings are summarized like this:
Risers: Polite back into first round, Abrams and AJ Brown back in the first round.
Fallers: Devin White from top 5 to top 15 (not much but enough) Metcalf and Marquis Brown out of first round.
In the land of the blind.....the one eye man is king!

Offline The GM

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2019, 08:22:02 AM »
No worries Hands.    Found it interesting how in Nov, Miss St teammates Sweat and DT Jeff Simmons were possible top 10 picks.  Today, they might be day 2 picks??  We'll see.

Offline Hands

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2019, 07:41:05 AM »
I swear I will be happier when the draft is over. I can get back to my writing. Anyway, did another analysis last night just to see how the draft might shake down and who could fall to Green Bay at 12.
First would be Hockenson.
If Jacksonville goes with OT as expected; Buffalo needs OT and WR help so they make the logical choice for Hock, but don't see them going between the spaces with a TE. So it's either Metcalf, trade down or Jonah Williams. Last two would be Denver, Lock seems the pick and not Hock and Detroit that just signed Jesse James from Pitt. Maybe for the first time in awhile I think Hock can make it to 12.
Second would be Sweat.
His heart, while many say isn't that big of deal, is serious enough not to spend serious draft capital on a medical question.
Third would be Oliver.
He's an in-between player in that he has great quickness and flexibility, but not big enough to engage OGs and get away from them. Doesn't remind me of Arnold from the Rams as much as Rich Glover of NE from years ago. Similar size, quickness, and college stats. He got hurt and was never the same but before he was hurt....didn't have the impact in the pros that he did in college.
If i had to chose right now who I wanted to fall...it would be Hock. For the Pack, he checks a lot of boxes that will be needed and is rated high enough to take.
In the land of the blind.....the one eye man is king!

Offline PackerJoe

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Re: Biggest fall on Draft Day?
« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2019, 08:51:31 AM »
Devin Bush wonderlic score of 6 would cause me some concern.  Lock doesn't strike me as a 1st or 2nd rd. QB, but his rise says alot of this QB selection this year.  Hoping White or Allen drop to us at 12 for some stupid reason!