September 19, 2019, 03:54:41 PM

Author Topic: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned  (Read 2621 times)

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Offline packlaw

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The draft and free agency is over and what can we surmise.  The new regime did not like the defensive makeup of the team.  The edge and front were revitalized with speedy, young athletic types.  The safeties are new.  Clearly, the new regime felt the defense was the main problem as to personnel and not scheme as the defensive coordinator was not let go.  As to the offense, the scheme was the problem for not any major changes in personnel save for a needed upgrade at guard.  Graham's successor was drafted; but Graham will be given every chance to redeem himself from last years performance.  I believe the new scheme will give him the chance to do that.  Barring injuries, this team will complete for the NFC North title despite a horrendous initial schedule.   

Offline marklawrence

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2019, 04:33:00 PM »
What we learned is that Gute thought there was pretty much zero talent on the defense; the problem was so severe that he's all but ignored the offence for two years.

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” -- John F. Kennedy.

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2019, 05:32:15 PM »
Total defensive makeover. The weakest positions left are ILB and maybe another CB, neither of those positions are in desperate need. Overall it is a strong young unit now.

The move for Gary showed the Packers are not trend-followers. There were some negatives around him (undeserved work ethic questions, a dyslexia disability and a damaged shoulder) and they looked past all that and took him anyway, that's bold, trusting your judgement, and no second-guessing. Trading up (for Savage) and spending 2x 4ths to do it, that was pretty bold as well. The new GM/Scouting crew are confident enough in their assessments to back themselves.

Also,
High RAS score players still a Packers strong preference. Confirmed.
Height minimums at safety less important than at CB. Confirmed.
High importance placed on positional versatility. Confirmed.

Any bets on whether the first pick next year is a RT ?
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

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Offline Smokey

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2019, 06:40:25 PM »
Well I've learned that unless you say what everyone is saying your likely to get punished.
So what is the politically correct Packer line of the day?
Rah Rah Rah, I'm a team player, go pack go.

Offline RT

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2019, 07:00:41 PM »
Well I've learned that unless you say what everyone is saying your likely to get punished.
So what is the politically correct Packer line of the day?
Rah Rah Rah, I'm a team player, go pack go.

I don't believe I have ever seen you post here, but I'm not following the point you are attempting to make. I see 3 posting by people that echo the teams want/need to improve the defense, is that the politically correct line of the day?

Offline Brandon2348

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2019, 07:01:52 PM »
I have some serious concerns. This could turn into a very long post to explain exactly how I feel because there are so many components but I will keep it as compact as I can. They have really overcompensated so many premium resources on the defense(free agency this year and the draft for years now ) that I believe this offense lacks playmakers. Gone are the days of the fantastic five which has morphed into Devante Adams and a bunch of JAG's. If an injury finds Devante the offense could seriously sputter and it could quickly become another long season. On top of that I believe the front office has failed to get Rodgers the weapons on offense that he deserves. I believe Rodgers to be a generational talent.  Michael Jordan scored a a lot of points and was a very exciting player but until they got him the necessary playmakers around him the Bulls got bounced out of the playoffs rather early.

The Packers had a legitimate shot to get Parris Campbell, Dk Metcalf or AJ Brown in the draft. All three I believe would of been an upgrade over what we have now. I don't even know who the slot is going to be now that Cobb is gone. I am sure they have a plan but is it going to be enough? Then you throw in all the rules that are continually favoring the offense and I don't understand the 10 year plan we have been on to build and elite defense.y

The Packers basically spent almost 200 million dollars on defense and then mortgaged there 4th round picks to get yet another defensive player which in turn took away all our firepower to move up on day 2 and get one of the premium receivers that were available. I'm sorry but I just don't like it.

I will if the defense becomes elite and carries us to another Lombardi but after what I have been through with this defense in recent years I am going to have to see it to believe it. I don't believe any team in the league has spent more capital on there defense over the past few seasons then the Packers. It needs to pay off now or we could be in big trouble.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 07:04:51 PM by Brandon2348 »

Offline B

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2019, 12:51:15 AM »
Well I've learned that unless you say what everyone is saying your likely to get punished.
So what is the politically correct Packer line of the day?
Rah Rah Rah, I'm a team player, go pack go.

I guess if one equates differing opinions as "punishment." ::)

State and support whatever opinion one holds - that is what generates interesting thread discussions. Who gives a rat's arse if others disagree? Unless one is trolling or has incredibly thin skin. 8)
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 12:52:19 AM by B »
The Green Bay Packers never lost a football game.
They just ran out of time.
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Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2019, 02:32:48 AM »
@Brandon2348.
Nothing that you say is wrong, but how the Packers stand at WR depends on how you look at it.

From my perspective, the Pack have exciting talent in MVS and ESB coming into year two. They have J'Mon Moore, who is an unknown at the moment. Allison and Kumerow will never be elite, but they are decent depth. Spending a really high pick on WR might be a little premature, until you get to see what last years rookies can do in year two. It may not be what YOU want, but there is plenty of potential to be coached up.

This years draft was a defense-heavy one at the top, which is partly why the Packers did what they did on draft day (Gute actually said that). I'm guessing the Packers go OT early next year, very likely in round one, while round two would be a likely target for WR if none of MVS/ESB/Moore pan out, they may even go there early if one or more does rise up.

One of the advantages of going so heavy on defense is that there isn't much in the way of real needs there now, just lots of high quality, young guys. You can't fix everything at once, and I can see why the Packers did what they did this year, allowing the WRs they have to mature. Maybe the Packers stumble this year due to a lack of overall talent at WR, maybe they shine as the young guys learn their stuff and take a step- I don't know which applies and neither do you, at this time.

As for the 2x 4ths the Packers used to go up and get Savage, well the ability to play single high safety is really, REALLY rare in the NFL, but Savage has the tools to do it at an NFL level. The Packers liked him so much they paid a steep price for him. They could easily have waited and got the 2nd/3rd/4th best FS, by waiting until one or two of the top five FS guys came off the board, before going and getting one, or they could have waited at #30 or #44 and got the best remaining one............ IF THAT WAS WHAT THEY WANTED.  They didn't want to do that, which tells you how much they wanted Savage. It's like the Clay Matthews trade-up all over again, and he worked out ok.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 02:43:36 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"

Offline ChicagoPackerFan

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2019, 06:57:48 AM »
As OneTwoSixFive mentioned bellow we have three young WRs drafted last year that need to be given a another year to see if they show  better production. We also have a new TE that should be able to make some contribution this year. Sternberger supposedly is a smooth accurate route runner, we know Rodgers places a great amount of stock in his receivers running precise routes.

If they need better production from the receiving corps going into next year, look for them to draft a higher round WR next year.

Offline ChicagoPackerFan

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2019, 07:04:59 AM »
A much better defense can also improve your offense... better field position, more offensive possessions, require less points to win games, and reduce pressure on offense to score quickly.

Offline The GM

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2019, 07:38:37 AM »
I got no issues with the trade up for Savage.  I applaud Gute for going up for a player with his tools.  They need impact players on defense, and he went for it, rather than sit back and draft a JAG. A guy like that can really change a defense if he develops. JMO.

Online craig

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2019, 09:56:52 AM »
Brandon, thanks for thoughtful post.  I agree, the investment in offense has been really lacking.  All of our investments have been in defense for many, many years now.  Over the last ten drafts, Bulaga, Spriggs, and Adams are the only 1st/2nd-day draft picks on the roster prior to Jenkins and Jace.  In a sense, spending both a 2nd AND a 3rd round draft pick on offense, (and those not late-round picks as in years past) is actually the most aggressive commitment to offense this decade! 

It's been noted what a big emphasis there has been on defensive speed.  That has not translated to offense.  Jones, Williams aren't combine-fast.  MVS is fast, and Davis.  But ESB isn't that fast or quick for a receiver; his speed is good **for his height**, but it's not like he's going to out-run or out-quick your average NFL slot receiver or anything like that.  Adams isn't fast.  Moore isn't especially fast.  Kumerow, Allison either. 

Hopefully the defense will be great, and Rodgers a game-manager who creates enough magic plays.  But I think the pure TALENT on offense, apart from QB, isn't great and hasn't been getting much help.  **IF** Rodgers doesn't play great, and it's not sure that he can anymore, the offense could struggle. 

HOpefully I'm wrong and it's no problem.  Hopefully Rodgers rediscovers accuracy, and recovers a capacity to see the field and both see and accurately hit receivers other than just Adams, and can occasionally throw a decent deep ball and convert on an occasional big play.  HOpefully Jones and Williams are really good and productive.  HOpefully Billy Turner is a stud, and Bakhti and Bulaga are both healthy.  Graham catches what he can reach.  And hopefully ESB and MVS and Allison, maybe even Moore, play with confidence, and the new system gets them open, and they and Rodgers emerge as high-end, Super-Bowl-competitive pass-and-catch combination that's plenty talented and isn't even remotely talent deficient.  Who knows. 

So, I'm hopeful that the offense will be pretty good, and with 1265 that the sophomore receivers will step it up big-time. 

But that is something of a gamble. 

Online craig

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2019, 10:04:00 AM »
1265, one of your points is to let the season play out, and figure out whether the sophomores can really do it.  Find out how good they can be. 

The risk there is that you don't really know based on year one; because often receivers aren't great as rookies, and take some time.  The risk there is that *IF* we find that they really aren't more than 3/4/5 type receivers, then we're starting from scratch next year, and starting a new it-takes-a-couple-of-years? process with new draftees. 

It may be that ESB just isn't really that quick or elusive, and has a somewhat inconsistent motor.  That MVS is fast, but just isn't very shifty or elusive, isn't really coordinated, and doesn't have very good hands.  That Moore just doesn't have playable NFL hands.  And that Rodgers just never clicks with or trusts any of them. 

Really, really desirable that they click and emerge; but the offense is pretty much in the hurt bag if they don't, probably for not just one but at least two years more if so. 

HOpes high.  Confidence less high!

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2019, 10:45:31 AM »
I quite agree that we don't know how the season plays out. I also agree that WRs take time to develop. The Packers last two great receivers, Nelson and Adams each took time, it was their third year when they first really shone. Who you choose to draft is always a balancing act, and even the best GMs get it wrong, but a decision has to be made who to pick, right or wrong, so it is a balancing of many things.

I wasn't thrilled with the WRs available at #44. Pick #30 was out of play, as the Packers were intent on getting 'their guy' Savage, whose skills are very rare. Pick #12 was out of play, as no WR was worth that value.

If I was building a receiver to best complement Adams, they would have a good sized catch radius, being around 6'2"-6'3" (bigger than that usually means rounded off cuts, tighter hips) but big enough be a red zone threat. They would be a good hands catcher, able to pluck the ball outside their frame with solid grip-strength to keep a hold of the ball in a contested catch situation. They would be good tracking the ball in flight and adjusting (a much underappreciated trait in receivers). Finally they would be fast, able to eat up cushions quickly, and too fast to be easily caught if the defender puts a foot wrong.

While Packers crave speed at DB (they have serious speed there now) to stay with/catch up to, fast receivers, they have never really gone for WR burners. ESB and MVS are as close as they have come for ages, so maybe their parameters have changed a bit with Gute as GM.  Here are this years WR contenders Parris Campbell is a true burner (went at #59) fights the ball, struggles to get off press coverage, and could do with another 2" and 10lbs. He isn't a good route runner either. For me, speed alone just isn't enough. Isabella is fast as well (4.31 40), but he is a slot-only guy (at 5'9", 188lbs).

The other flier was D.K.Metcalf. He IS the size/weight you want (6'3", 228) jumps through the roof and has speed to burn  (4.33 40). Like so many speedsters, he drops more balls than he should, but the most worrying thing about him are the season ending injuries, foot (worrying if it is a lisfranc as it tends to re-occur), and neck (that is very worrying, all neckbone injuries are dangerous, the lower the number of the vertebra affected the worse it is (the lower the number the higher up in the neck it is). Usually it is the C3/4/5/6 vertebra that are damaged. C3 or C4 are the absolute worst, 5/6 are still dangerous but less than 3/4 (Nick Collins career-ender was a C3). Even with his limited route tree, even with his very poor 3cone, even with his average hands, and less than stellar production, I could have been interested in that size/weight/speed, but those specific injuries were a step too far for me, at #44. the fact that he was drafted as low as 64th with his measurables, says other teams had their reservations as well.

The best 'bang for the buck', might have been Terry McLaurin. 6'0", 205 lbs, 4.35 speed. Was available with the Packers 3rd round pick #75 (he went the next pick). His hands are ok, not great, he is strong in reading the ball in-flight, and, can make nice cuts and runs a full route tree. Has a good competitive attitude and no injury or character red flags I am aware of. The Packers went TE Jace Sternberger instead, a greater need, as Graham and Lewis are almost certainly gone after 2019.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 11:15:52 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"

Online craig

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Re: Now that free agency and the draft is over, what have we learned
« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2019, 11:02:19 AM »
Nice detail, thanks.  Yeah, high-ish picks are rare and precious, and you never have enough to get all the plaers and position groups you want. 

Like most other teams, we've got to hope that the sophomores emerge beautifully.  That's the kind of thing that happens with teams that end up winning big; a disproportionate number of question marks turn out golden.  That's what we need with ESB, MVS, Moore, Allison, Kumerow, Jace, Turner, Taylor, Jenkins, Bulaga, and certainly Rodgers too.  And for teams who have really big individual seasons, that also often correlates with a disproportionately low number of crippling irreplaceable injuries.  Being the packers, I always hope for the latter, but never expect it!  :)

If the receivers turn out to be really good ascending quality players, AND if Rodgers bounces back as a really good QB with accuracy and good decision-making, the offense could be very good, good enough to make the playoffs when coupled with a talented defense. 

But if the receivers prove to be just be a bunch of JAGs who make a lot of mistakes, and Rodgers is a struggling, bad-decision-making inaccurate thrower, with no deep-ball, the offense is going to struggle.

That's why we play the season, who knows!