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Offline stillcrazee

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2014 off season and 7 round mock draft
« on: January 04, 2014, 11:06:50 PM »
Active off season for Green Bay.  More departures than normal.  Two players change positions.  A possible dip into free agency.  A couple of draft day moves.

Comments:  It is hard to believe that our OLB's other than Clay Matthews are as bad as they are.  I think we move Mike Neal back to defensive end.  He gets better pass rush from there.  We take a top 5 OLB in the draft to shore up the OLB.  If Perry has a breakout year, great, then we have a good backup for when (not if) Perry and Matthews get hurt during the year. 
 
The middle of our defense is also lacking.  NT, ILB and S will need to be addressed before the 2014 season.  I have heard that Micah Hyde could be a star at S and he will be moved to S for 2014.

2014 departures:  B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, C.J. Wilson, John Jolly, Tramon Williams, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Evan Deitrich-Smith, John Kuhn, Marshall Newhouse, James Starks, Matt Flynn.

2014 keeping our own free agents:  Sam Shields, Mike Neal, Andrew Quarless, Scott Tolzein, Jamari Lattimore (RFA), M.D. Jennings (RFA).  Randall Cobb will get a very good extension.  We will also try and get an extension done with Jordy Nelson.

2014 possible real veteran FA signing:  Terrance Cody, NT, Baltimore Ravens.  Hadn't thought about this, but I saw someone post it and thought it wasn't a bad idea.  I doubt we actually spend money on a real veteran FA, but we take a lot of payroll off the books in 2014.  We can certainly afford a dip into the free agent pool and also extend some key players.  I did read that the Packers were working out NT’s.  Probably when the season is over we sign a “street” free agent, but it sure would be nice to get a good veteran you can plug into your starting lineup.

2014 draft:  I have us getting a 4th round comp pick for losing Greg Jennings. 
I have us with two trades.  A trade back in the first round for a pick in the 30-32 range, and a 4th round pick.  Then we trade our 3rd and 4th round picks (keeping the 4th round comp and the 4th round pick we traded for) to move up in the 3rd round.

1:  Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU.  I don’t like drafting another first round OLB, but at least this guy is an OLB, not a converted DE.  He should bring some intelligence to the position.  From what I have seen of him he looks like a real solid OLB.  With what we have now I would take solid any day.  I think he can start for us from day one.
2:  Kyle Fuller, CB, VT.  TT won't pay Tramon Williams next year, and Williams won't take a pay cut, so he leaves.  Davon House is still inconsistent.  He should be a solid player by now.  If Fuller can step in and start, we can still use Hayward as a slot CB where he excelled as a rookie.  Otherwise, Hayward starts at CB and Fuller is our 3rd corner. 
3.  (trade up):  C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa.  Need to replace Finley.  Quarless has played better lately.  I have us re-signing Quarless even though he is a free agent.  Fiedorowicz can be a good combination TE who can be used as a pass catching TE because he has the size and speed, but he is also big enough to be a good blocking TE.  Iowa football players tend to be good football players. 
4a (traded for by trading back in the 1st round):  Donte Moncrief, WR, Ole Miss.  Good size and decent production for playing in the SEC.  Not a great year in 2013, so he has dropped some in early draft rankings.
4b (comp for Greg Jennings):  Andrew Jackson, ILB, W. Kentucky.  Big player who can help stop the run (we need help stopping the run).  Probably not a three down LB, at least not right away. 
5.  Trey Millard, FB, Oklahoma:  Good size at 250, and can run and catch.  Can replace Kuhn.  Could see him being a William Henderson type player.
6.  Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton:  Will be in the Senior Bowl, so he has done well for a Princeton DT.  Has some pass rush ability and should not have any problem playing 3-4 DE.
7.  Devon Kennard, OLB, USC:  Converted from DE but at least has played a year at OLB.  Good project player at this point in the draft.  Could make the 53 with as weak as we are at OLB.

2014 Roster (* denotes starter):

Offense:

QB:  *Rodgers, Tolzein, (UDFA on practice squad).
RB:  *Lacey, Franklin, Harris, Millard (rookie).
WR:  *Nelson, *Cobb, Boykin, Moncrief (rookie), Chris Harper (kept him on the 53 man roster for a reason).
TE:  *Quarless, Fiedorowicz (rookie), Bostick, Stoneburner.
OL:  *Bakhtiari, *Bulaga (RT), *Lang, *Sitton, *Tretter (C), Sherrod, Barclay, Van Roten, Taylor. 

Defense:

DL:  *Jones, *Cody, *Neal, Daniels, Boyd, Reid (rookie).
ILB:  *Hawk, *Jones, Jackson (rookie), Lattimore, Barrington.
OLB:  *Matthews, *Van Noy (rookie), Perry, Mulumba, Kennard (rookie).  If we keep Palmer, then Kennard is on the practice squad.
S:  *Burnett, *Hyde, Richardson, Jennings.
CB:  *Shields, *Hayward, Fuller (rookie), House, Nixon, Bush.

Specialists:

K:  Mason Crosby.
P:  Tim Masthey.
LS:  Brett Goode.





Offline dannobanano

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Re: 2014 off season and 7 round mock draft
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2014, 03:18:32 AM »
Guys,

Trading back to the bottom of the 1st round or to the top of the 2nd round should get you much more than a 4th round pick.

According to the Trade Value Chart...........

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

..............dropping from (potentially) the #22 pick to the #32 pick is a difference of 190 points. It's even more if you trade back into the 2nd round.

That value would put that pick at about the 16th pick of the 3rd round (middle of the round).

If you took a 4th round pick instead of getting a 3rd round pick for making that draft move, then you just got screwed by the other team.

If you are getting a 4th round pick, you better be getting a second pick in the deal to make it equal out.

Using the chart, if you traded back to the #32 pick, the minimum you should be receiving would be the #96 pick (last pick of 3rd round) and the #110 pick (the 14th pick of the 4th round).

Typically you only make these kinds of moves when the trade value is going to favor your team, not the other team.

Just a little insight and suggestion......................

Offline stillcrazee

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Re: 2014 off season and 7 round mock draft
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2014, 06:03:44 AM »
Thanks for the info Dano.  I don't normally get to looking at the draft value chart until closer to the draft.  Good to know that moving back has more value than what I remembered.

As for my original post, I guess it is too long after posting to edit it, but I made some last minute changes late at night before posting.  I accidentally took Worthy off the d-line.  That was definitely a mistake.  My intention for that roster spot was to have either Bush or Nixon make the final 53, not both.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2014, 06:05:42 AM by stillcrazee »

Offline golfman

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Re: 2014 off season and 7 round mock draft
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2014, 07:37:57 AM »
Guys,

Trading back to the bottom of the 1st round or to the top of the 2nd round should get you much more than a 4th round pick.

According to the Trade Value Chart...........

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

..............dropping from (potentially) the #22 pick to the #32 pick is a difference of 190 points. It's even more if you trade back into the 2nd round.

That value would put that pick at about the 16th pick of the 3rd round (middle of the round).

If you took a 4th round pick instead of getting a 3rd round pick for making that draft move, then you just got screwed by the other team.

If you are getting a 4th round pick, you better be getting a second pick in the deal to make it equal out.

Using the chart, if you traded back to the #32 pick, the minimum you should be receiving would be the #96 pick (last pick of 3rd round) and the #110 pick (the 14th pick of the 4th round).

Typically you only make these kinds of moves when the trade value is going to favor your team, not the other team.

Just a little insight and suggestion......................

Maybe he's thinking we draft later than 22 by winning today? ;D
"Make the Packers Great Again! "

Offline golfman

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Re: 2014 off season and 7 round mock draft
« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2014, 07:40:38 AM »
A lot to love in this draft! For me in particular Van Noy but I think when people put the tape in and watch this kid, he's going in round 1. He's a better football player than Shazier and Beasley by a large margin.
"Make the Packers Great Again! "

Offline dannobanano

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Re: 2014 off season and 7 round mock draft
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2014, 09:05:47 AM »
Guys,

Trading back to the bottom of the 1st round or to the top of the 2nd round should get you much more than a 4th round pick.

According to the Trade Value Chart...........

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

..............dropping from (potentially) the #22 pick to the #32 pick is a difference of 190 points. It's even more if you trade back into the 2nd round.

That value would put that pick at about the 16th pick of the 3rd round (middle of the round).

If you took a 4th round pick instead of getting a 3rd round pick for making that draft move, then you just got screwed by the other team.

If you are getting a 4th round pick, you better be getting a second pick in the deal to make it equal out.

Using the chart, if you traded back to the #32 pick, the minimum you should be receiving would be the #96 pick (last pick of 3rd round) and the #110 pick (the 14th pick of the 4th round).

Typically you only make these kinds of moves when the trade value is going to favor your team, not the other team.

Just a little insight and suggestion......................

Maybe he's thinking we draft later than 22 by winning today? ;D

#21................even better than #22.

 ;)

50PoundHead

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Re: 2014 off season and 7 round mock draft
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2014, 09:39:10 AM »
Nice set of picks, but I hope they keep Flynn around to at least vie for the back-up QB role with Tolzien.  I don't think the game is ever going to slow down enough for Tolzien.