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Author Topic: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money  (Read 3362 times)

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Offline cpk1994

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Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« on: October 19, 2012, 11:21:41 AM »
If he took the safety, the Niners would have covered the 8 point spread.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8523891/jim-harbaugh-decision-decline-safety-had-huge-impact-betting-world

Harbaugh's reasoning for declining the safety was a little flawed:

Quote
After the game, Harbaugh explained that simply kneeling on the ball would ensure that the game would be over, instead giving them to change to kick the ball after the safety. "Otherwise, they'll onside kick it and you give them a chance to win the game," Harbaugh said.

Harbaugh's math skills need to be checked because while they did ensure they won the game, taking the safety would have given the Niners a 9 point lead. you can't get 9 points in one possession.  The Seahawks would have needed a miracle that even the refs couldn't give them.
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Offline LMG

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2012, 11:34:36 AM »
I agree with Harbaugh's call.


Don't want to take the chance of putting the ball back in the Hawks hands.
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Offline cpk1994

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2012, 11:36:29 AM »
I agree with Harbaugh's call.


Don't want to take the chance of putting the ball back in the Hawks hands.
But it would have been a 9pt game with only 43 seconds to go. The Seaahawks chances of winning the game were still zero.
"Aaron Rodgers is a baaaaaaad man" - Stephen A. Smith

Offline JimATX

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2012, 11:39:07 AM »
I heard he was also concerned about injuries on the on-side kick. And, with it being a free kick after the safety there would not have been a kicking tee so it is doubtful they had practiced that scenario much. High chance of injury to a key player (hands team guys).
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Offline mzahn

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2012, 11:39:15 AM »
If he took the safety, the Niners would have covered the 8 point spread.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8523891/jim-harbaugh-decision-decline-safety-had-huge-impact-betting-world

Harbaugh's reasoning for declining the safety was a little flawed:

Quote
After the game, Harbaugh explained that simply kneeling on the ball would ensure that the game would be over, instead giving them to change to kick the ball after the safety. "Otherwise, they'll onside kick it and you give them a chance to win the game," Harbaugh said.

Harbaugh's math skills need to be checked because while they did ensure they won the game, taking the safety would have given the Niners a 9 point lead. you can't get 9 points in one possession.  The Seahawks would have needed a miracle that even the refs couldn't give them.
In the end does it really matter? They won.
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Offline rpiotr01

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2012, 11:42:23 AM »
I thought it was a shockingly rational decision from Harbaugh. Kneel twice to end the game, don't bother with any other shenanigans.

Offline Packinatl

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2012, 11:51:16 AM »
I thought it was a shockingly rational decision from Harbaugh. Kneel twice to end the game, don't bother with any other shenanigans.

Agree NEVER give the ball back in that situation.  Seattle had no TO's left, take a knee and go home
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Offline cpk1994

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2012, 11:58:25 AM »
In the end does it really matter? They won.
All I am saying is that his reasoning is flawed. If taking a safety still resulted in a one posession game, then his reasoning makes sense.  Now, if he was concerned about injury as an earlier posters stated and just used that for his reason, he doesn't look so shaky.  His reasoning makes him look like he forgot how teams can score.
"Aaron Rodgers is a baaaaaaad man" - Stephen A. Smith

Offline cpk1994

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2012, 11:59:43 AM »
I thought it was a shockingly rational decision from Harbaugh. Kneel twice to end the game, don't bother with any other shenanigans.

Agree NEVER give the ball back in that situation.  Seattle had no TO's left, take a knee and go home
It would have been a 9pt game with 40 seconds to go. Seattle still would have had a zero percent chance of winning. Get real.
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Offline rpiotr01

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2012, 02:30:34 PM »
I'm very real. They were coming off a short week after they got pummeled, they just played a really physical game. Why have your defense run extra plays? Why have ST run extra plays? Just get the game over with and get out of there.

Offline cpk1994

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2012, 04:49:46 AM »
I'm very real. They were coming off a short week after they got pummeled, they just played a really physical game. Why have your defense run extra plays? Why have ST run extra plays? Just get the game over with and get out of there.
You're missing my point. My point is that while the decision was fine, Harbaugh's reasoning is faulty. He said he was worried about the Seahawks going down and scoring. That was impossible because it would have been a two possession game. His reasoning makes him look like mistakenly thought it would have been a one possession game. If he was concerned about injuries, that is the reasoning he should have given. That is a lot stronger argument than the faulty one he gave.
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Offline Pugger

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2012, 05:58:10 AM »
If he took the safety, the Niners would have covered the 8 point spread.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8523891/jim-harbaugh-decision-decline-safety-had-huge-impact-betting-world

Harbaugh's reasoning for declining the safety was a little flawed:

Quote
After the game, Harbaugh explained that simply kneeling on the ball would ensure that the game would be over, instead giving them to change to kick the ball after the safety. "Otherwise, they'll onside kick it and you give them a chance to win the game," Harbaugh said.

Harbaugh's math skills need to be checked because while they did ensure they won the game, taking the safety would have given the Niners a 9 point lead. you can't get 9 points in one possession.  The Seahawks would have needed a miracle that even the refs couldn't give them.

 ;D

I think Harbaugh erred by not taking the safety too.  Only rarely do you take points off the board - and only when you can get TD instead of a FG.  What if there is a screwup in the exchange when you are in the 'victory' formation and the 'hawks get the ball?  I don't have a lot of regard for him, frankly.  I like his brother more.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2012, 06:03:48 AM by Pugger »

Offline Drew the Draft Guru

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Re: Harbaugh declines safety, bettors lose a lot money
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2012, 08:09:35 AM »
One thing about bettors "losing a lot of money" is that some bettors won a lot of money. Maybe the NFL should do an investigation behind the scenes to see if Harbaugh was betting on this game, but I don't think declining the safety was a ridiculous move either. Was it questionable? Sure, but it wasn't ridiculous. After all, how many times has a team turned the ball over in the victory formation? And even if they did turn the ball over that doesn't mean they would've lost as SEA still would have had to score a TD and PAT just to TIE. I think the weirdest thing about it is why would you want to take a safety away from your team, but then again it's not really a coaches job to worry about stats.
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