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Author Topic: Arrigo Mock v1.0  (Read 7014 times)

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Arrigo

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Arrigo Mock v1.0
« on: January 03, 2013, 12:18:11 PM »
I told myself I wasn't going to do a mock before February. I said that it wouldn't be smart to do one this early even though I am starting to get some information about players from various sources I have gotten to know throughout the years. But then I went back on to PackerChatters and started to converse with old friends and got the itch!

So, here is my first (of many) Packers only mock drafts I will be doing in the offseason. As usual for this time of the year I will not try to predict any potential rosters moves (re-signings, trades and FA signings). This is a straight mock with the current amount of picks the Packers have.

So enjoy and please feel free to comment so we can have a dialog!

Round 1:



John Jenkins- NT- Georgia:

The Packers will have to decide whether BJ Raji is worth a contract extension. Also, Jarrell Worthy tore a knee ligament in the final regular season game vs the Vikings and Ryan Pickett is not a certain to be on the team with his contract number, so the DL is some what of a priority. Jenkins is a big (6'3/351) strong lineman that can plug the middle of the defensive line. In certain sets, Raji could slide over with Jenkins in the middle (or vice-versa). Jenkins, right now, is projected as a mid to late 1st round guy.

Round 2:



Robert Woods- WR- USC:

If the Packers decide to not resign Greg Jennings then WR becomes a little more of a priority. Woods numbers in 2012 were down from the previous two seasons, but that was because USC head coach went away from Woods as the #1 target and more towards Marquis Lee. But Woods played both outside and in the slot. He is a smooth route runner that can run the route tree to perfection and as well as any college WR. He has loose hips that allows him to get in and out of his breaks with ease. Woods has the instincts that you would want any elite WR to have with exceptional hands and he also can return punts and kicks as well. Woods also is one of the better blocking WR's in this class to go along with great RAC skills. Woods high points the ball well and fights for the ball in the air. He never openly complained about his lesser role in the Trojans 2012 season, instead he continued to work hard and do what he was asked to do, which shows high character on his behalf.

What will cause him to be a second round guy is his lack of "elite" timed speed. He won't run a 4.35 at the combine, he is a 4.4 to 4.5 guy that plays faster on game days. He reminds me of Jennings and Marvin Harrison coming out.

Round 3:



Kenjon Barner- RB- Oregon:

The Packers haven't had a "home run hitting" RB is quite some time and Barner is that type of player. My concern with him is his size (listed as 5'11/195) and can he handle the pounding of the NFL? If he can he would be an excellent fit for the Packers and their high octane offense. With his speed and ability to catch the ball he would be a nightmare for defenses to try and contain. He also has a nose for the end zone scoring 47 times (via the ground or air) in the past 4 years.

Round 4:



Khaled Holmes- C- USC:

The Packers will not be keeping Jeff Saturday and Evan Deitrich-Smith is already starting for them at center. But they need to add a player that can come in and eventually compete with Deitrich-Smith and Holmes can do just that. He protected Matt Barkley since they both played together at Mater Dei HS and at USC. He has the size and strength that teams look for but is needs some work fundamentally in order to be a top flight center. Holmes can also play guard as well which fits in nicely with the Packers who like versatile lineman. Scouts I have talked to have him as a 4th-5th round guy.

Round 5:



Knile Davis- RB- Arkansas:

Remember when I said I wasn't sure if Barner would be able to hold up to the every game pounding of the NFL? The Packers can't afford to continue to wait and see if James Starks can ever get healthy and Alex Green has his fair share of injury questions as well. DuJuan Harris has the look of a nice player but is he a one year wonder? In Davis' sophomore year, he ran for 1,322 yards (leading the SEC) and 13 TD's in 2010. He re-broke his left ankle during the Razorbacks spring game and missed 2011. In 2012, Davis ran for only 377 yards and 2 TD's playing behind Dennis Johnson. While his numbers weren't great by what he did 2 years ago, he has the size, speed, vision and overall ability to be a special back in the right system. He flourished in Bobby Petrino's spread offense, and he could be even better in Mike McCarthy's offense with all the weapons the Packers have at WR and TE. There is great value here for Thompson, a lot like James Starks a few years back, except Davis is more talented (a boom or bust type guy due to his past injuries). He is projected to go anywhere from the 4th to the 6th round.

Round 6:



Ray-Ray Armstrong- S- Faulkner University:

Ray Ray Armstrong would be a a top 100 pick if things had played out differently at the University of Miami. He was ruled ineligible for taking benefits from an agent. The NCAA ruled he couldn't play at the FBS level and he transferred to Faulkner University. He has the size (6'3/215) speed (sub 4.4) and skills to be an impact player. But not playing football at a high level last season and a few injury questions (at Miami) have some NFL teams wondering. I spoke to 4 different scouts for NFL teams and they all agreed that Armstrong is a guy that is projected to be a late round (7th round) or Undrafted Priority Rookie FA. For the Packers, this value is to good and he would come in and compete from day 1 for a lot of playing time.

Round 7:



Dustin Hopkins- K- Florida St.:

Mason Crosby has struggled in 2012. His confidence has been shaken, but Mike McCarthy stuck by him in part because what is out there on the FA market is not what he or Ted Thompson are looking for in a K. Hopkins is an All-American who has made kicks as far as 56 yards (in 2012) and missed only 5 extra points in 4 years (4 of which came his freshman year). He would provide some legitimate composition for Mason Crosby in training camp.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2013, 12:24:42 PM by Arrigo »

Offline Draft Hobbyist

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2013, 02:03:18 PM »
I like the top half of it (actually up through the 4th round) if we can land those guys. Some of them might not last that long. I'm not really a fan of the bottom half of it (starting with the 5th round). I doubt we draft a K. We have a pretty sizable financial commitment to Crosby yet, and teams don't usually draft a kicker for competition. I expect to grab an UDFA as competition. I don't hate Ray-Ray Armstrong, but I really don't like guys from Miami. They always seem to be physically gifted and underachieve. Maybe Armstrong is different. In the 5th we would be getting quite the physical athlete in Knile Davis, but the guy can't stay healthy. If he couldn't stay healthy in college why could he in the NFL? I'd target him as an UDFA but nothing more.

Offline Terranimal

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2013, 02:13:46 PM »
I think both Jenkins and Woods will be off the board before where you have them projected to us.

Don't see the need for Barner with the way Harris plays so far. Plus he does better on the outside and those lanes aren't usually there and close fast in the NFL.

I almost had Holmes in my last Mock but it worked out differently. Feel better about him since finding out he played all season on a bad ankle.

Not a Knile Davis fan. Had enough of injury Backs here. I had a player that has gone through injuries two mocks back and got grilled.

sorry if it seems to be nitpicking but have been in draft gear since early fall this year, while most are just starting or catching up.... ;)

Offline CWood21

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2013, 03:50:50 PM »
Can't wait to start hearing the rumors you've heard.

Arrigo

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2013, 03:52:31 PM »
check my twitter feed (@joearrigo) I am doing a show at 6pm cst called the OTS (the link is on there)

Offline Wisco

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2013, 04:22:01 PM »
I think barner would be an awasome pick! Perfect back for our style of play. Is height is a concern but ask Chris Johnson about that. To have a real fast small running back that can hit a home run on any handoff. Imagine him in the screen game!
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Offline Minny Packer Fan

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2013, 06:27:19 PM »
An interesting thought provoking draft.....

I agree with Terranimal that Jenkins and Woods will probably both be gone when you have projected them to get drafted (unless there is a character or drug issue).  If we draft somewhere around the 24th position in the 1st round, Jesse Williams from Alabama might be available.  If either Jenkins or Williams were available I would take Williams as he plays with more effort on a consistent basis.

I like Woods, but his statements last week seemed to show a "me first" attitude.  But I could have taken his comments out of context.

I personally would not take any of the next three picks even though these are all talented players.  Holmes especially is talented but reports are that he can only play one position and I believe the Packers are happy so far with EDS. Niles Davis has struggeled to recover from his injury last year and just does not show the explosion he displayed before the injury.

Offline mancl

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2013, 06:42:09 PM »
Welcome back.  I was going to try to find a way to ask you about Holmes and you provided it for me.

He was the lst or 2nd best center at the start of the season but by all accounts had a poor year.  Do you blame this on his bad ankle or is he just not that good?   A

Thanks.

Offline #66

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2013, 08:24:08 PM »

I'm with Terranimal here.  I just do not see them being around that late.
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Offline jthiel86

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2013, 04:22:51 AM »
I like this draft from top to bottom.  The kicker can stay or go I suppose, I understand your reasoning.  I could see us taking a LB in there instead of a RB at either spot.
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Offline vegas492

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2013, 06:32:14 AM »
I like the guys and the thought process.
But I'm said to see that this draft does not improve a pass rush and it does not offer us a tight end, even if it is for the future.

I'm nitpicking here, but I don't see TT drafting a troubled pure safety.  We have Jennings, McMillan and Burnett playing right now with Richardson in the wings.  The only way I see another safety in the draft is if it is an elite talent (that will start immediately) or if it is a corner that can also play safety (think Xavier Rhodes).

I like the idea of drafting a running back, but not two and not an injury prone guy.

Offline mancl

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2013, 02:31:31 PM »
The Packers drafted Perry, Worthy, Daniels and Neal in the last 2 drafts with the intention of improving the pass rush.

Even without Finley the Packers will have 5 tight ends on their roster next summer.

Remember the Packers philosophy is draft and develop- maybe it is time to let the develop part work out.  I am not trying to explain Joe's rationale- that's just my take

Offline Terranimal

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2013, 07:36:13 AM »
The Packers drafted Perry, Worthy, Daniels and Neal in the last 2 drafts with the intention of improving the pass rush.

Even without Finley the Packers will have 5 tight ends on their roster next summer.

Remember the Packers philosophy is draft and develop- maybe it is time to let the develop part work out.  I am not trying to explain Joe's rationale- that's just my take

However, Worthy might not be ready by TC if he ends up needing surgery. Both Wilson and Neal are free agents in'14, and it's anyone's guess how much Pickett has left after this year as he enters his last year of his contract. Oh and we have Raji due a new contract soon as well.

So we could be seeing a lot of changes to our D-Line line up over the next couple of years. Definitely think we see at least one guy added, if not two.

Offline vegas492

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2013, 06:51:04 AM »
The Packers drafted Perry, Worthy, Daniels and Neal in the last 2 drafts with the intention of improving the pass rush.

Even without Finley the Packers will have 5 tight ends on their roster next summer.

Remember the Packers philosophy is draft and develop- maybe it is time to let the develop part work out.  I am not trying to explain Joe's rationale- that's just my take
The only consistent pass rusher we have right now on the roster is Clay.  We have a developing guy in Neal and a lot of question marks after that.

If a pass rusher is there as a DL or OLB, you gotta look long and hard at him.

If we do not find another pass rusher, either via the draft, FA or developed from roster, we will be, once again, at the mercy of Clay's hamstrings.

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Arrigo Mock v1.0
« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2013, 10:41:00 AM »
Ryan Pickett is not a certain to be on the team with his contract number, so the DL is some what of a priority.

According to Rotoworld here is Pickett's contract.
3/12/2010: Signed a four-year, $24.925 million contract. The deal contains $10 million guaranteed, including a $2 million signing bonus and a first-year roster bonus of $6.4 million. Pickett is eligible for annual $200,000 workout bonuses. Another $700,000 is available through "likely to be earned" incentives. 2012: $4.5 million, 2013: $5.4 million, 2014: Free Agent

Add the guaranteed portion the signing bonus and the roster bonus and you get $18.4m. I'm no cap whiz, but it looks like that leaves the Packers paying him a little over $3m in 2013 and because of the accelerated part of the contract (should he be let go), he would not save the Packers that much, in 2013. If that is way out, someone please  enlighten me....
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