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Author Topic: Arrigo Mock v2.0  (Read 2865 times)

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Arrigo

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Arrigo Mock v2.0
« on: January 13, 2013, 09:23:11 PM »
The Packers 2012 season came to an embarrassing end after a 45-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The Packers offense looked out of sync (for the most part) and the defense got torched by Collin Kaepernick and the 49ers running attack.


The Packers running game improved with DuJuan Harris as the "featured" back, but he is still unproven and it remains to be seen if he can carry the load. Alex Green has ability but he wore down at the end of the season and he still has yet to prove he can healthy for an entire season. The Packers have to decide what they are going to do with Greg Jennings. If they decide to part ways with the Free Agent then they will have to fill the void he would leave. They could franchise him (at over $10 million, a $6.68 million dollar raise) or they could lock him up long term (which is a long shot). Donald Driver will not be back. The Packers will either cut him or he will retire. (I have a feeling he ends up in Dallas with former WR coach Jimmy Robinson.)


On the defensive side of the ball the Packers lost 1st round pick Nick Perry, inside linebacker Desmond Bishop, Jarrell Worthy,Charles Woodson, Sam Shields, Mike Neal, DJ Smith and CJ Wilson all for extended peroids of time in the 2012 season. The losses of Perry and Bishop really hurt the team, especially Bishop who didn't play a game in 2012. Yet, the Packers finished 11th in total defense and showed marked improvement from 2011. Dom Capers is getting hammered by fans after the 49ers playoff loss because of the way his unit performed.


I don't see Capers getting fired based on who would come in and replace him. If you wanted to stay in house then Darren Perry and Joe Whitt Jr. are names to watch, but unless the Packers could land Arizona Cardinals DC Ray Horton as a replacement for Capers, he'll most likely be back, but I do think his seat will be hot going into the 2013 season.


I normally don't like project trades, cuts and re-signings because (1) they very rarely happen and (2) you never know how another team values a player or potential deal. We all have OUR opinions and value and argue those points in mocks, so I don't like to touch any potential deal, but in this case, after this loss, I want to try.


Re-Signings/Franchise:

Greg Jennings (Franchise): I think the Packers keep Jennings because they know his value. While he may not like it, it allows them to limit where he can sign or allow them to deal him. I think They know that he is the most complete WR on the roster and a top 5 WR in the NFL. This also allows Jennings to increase his value on the open market should he stay healthy and lastly allows the team to (potentially) work out a long term deal with him.
 

Sam Shields (RFA): He is a RFA and rebounded from a horrible 2011 season. He was arguably the Packers best cover corner in the last 4 games and the playoffs. His career is back on the upswing and will only get better after another offseason in Green Bay.


Brad Jones (UFA): Jones took over for DJ Smith after he took over for Desmond Bishop and found a home at inside linebacker. He was the Packers best coverage backer and has more speed then the rest of the ILB on the roster. Mike McCarthy really likes the what he brings and how he played for the team in 2012.


Evan Dietrich-Smith
(RFA): The Packers feel they found their next starting center in Dietrich-Smith who played well until the playoff game against the 49ers. The run game really improved once he started for the team and his career is on the upswing.


Tom Crabtree (RFA): Crabtree brings so much to the Packers offense. He is a very good blocker, has decent hands and is assignment sure. He is also a very good special teams player and adds toughness to the team.


Retired/Not Re-Signed/Cut:

Donald Driver (Released): Driver wants to play until he is 40, which is another 2 years. He doesn't separate like he used to and is not the same receiver he was 2 years ago. While I think he understands that it would be ideal to retire a Packer, I also think he has the fire to prove he can still play. IF he plays in 2013, keep an eye on Dallas. He has a home there and the Packers former WR coach is the Asst HC/WR coach for the Cowboys and he could mentor the young but talented Dez Bryant.


Erick Walden
(Not Re-Signed): Walden had a good 2012 but he faded as the year went on. He is a solid reserve player but not an NFL starter. With the emergence of Dezmon Moses and the return of Nick Perry, I can't see the Packers bringing him back in 2013.


Jeff Saturday (Retire): Saturday was brought in to be the stop gap for a year or two and he did just that. But he is not the same type of player he was a couple years ago and he knows it. He understands that Dietrich-Smith is the Packers starting center in 2013 and has told close friends and family that 2012 was his final year.


Trade/Restructure Contract:


AJ Hawk (Trade w/ KC Chiefs): The Chiefs have a huge hole at ILB and Hawk would fill a need for the Chiefs. While Hawk had his best year in 2012 (in my opinion), he is to slow and has to stiff of hips to cover explosive TE's like Vernon Davis and Jimmy Graham. In this deal I have the Packers sending Hawk and a 2014 4th rounder to KC for their 3rd round selection in 2013 and the Chiefs 6th rounder in 2014.


Charles Woodson (Re-Structure): Woodson is a leader in the locker room and a guy that still provides big play ability as well as a coach on the field. I was told weeks ago that he wants to remain a Packer and is willing to re-work his contract (he is do $6.5 mill w/ a $3.5 misc. bonuses) to do so. The team is also open to bringing him back at a reduced rate.



2013 Mock Draft v2.0:


Round 1:  TRADE: The Packers trade their 1st round pick in the 2013 draft and their 3rd round pick in 2013 to the Miami Dolphins for the Dolphins 2nd round pick (#42), 2nd round pick (#54) and the Dolphins 3rd (#77).


Round 2 (A):


Robert Woods- WR- USC:

If the Packers decide to not resign Greg Jennings then WR becomes a lot more of a priority. Even if they choose to franchise him for the 2013 year Donald Driver will not be back and James Jones will be entering the final year of his 3 year deal. Woods numbers in 2012 were down from the previous two seasons, but that was because USC head coach went away from Woods as the #1 target and more towards Marquis Lee. But Woods played both outside and in the slot. He is a smooth route runner that can run the route tree to perfection and as well as any college WR. He has loose hips that allows him to get in and out of his breaks with ease.

Woods has the instincts that you would want any elite WR to have with exceptional hands and he also can return punts and kicks as well. Woods also is one of the better blocking WR's in this class to go along with great RAC skills. Woods high points the ball well and fights for the ball in the air. He never openly complained about his lesser role in the Trojans 2012 season, instead he continued to work hard and do what he was asked to do, which shows high character on his behalf.

What will cause him to be a second round guy is his lack of "elite" timed speed. He won't run a 4.35 at the combine, he is a 4.4 to 4.5 guy that plays faster on game days. He reminds me of Jennings and Marvin Harrison coming out.


Round 2 (B):


Eddie Lacy- RB- Alabama:

The Packers need to address their running back situation even with the emergence of DuJuan Harris. Lacy is the type of back that the Packers want and need. He reminds me of a stronger Frank Gore. He has great feet, instincts, hands, vision and balance. He is a winner, has the size (6'0/220), hands out the backfield, a nose for the end zone and the type of demeanor that will make him a success in the NFL and in the Packers offensive system. He could be the starter from day 1 and give the Packers their best running attack in years making their offense even more dangerous (and complete).


Round 3 (A):


Brennan Williams- OT- North Carolina:

The Packers offensive line gave up 51 sacks in 2012. Derrek Sherrod missed all of 2012 due to a broken leg in 2012 and Marshall Newhouse looked overwhelmed at times. Bryan Bulaga missed most of the year due to a hip injury and Dan Barclay looked good, but may be better inside. Williams has a nasty streak and a tough demeanor that the Packers lack (outside of Josh Sitton). The Packers offensive line got manhandled to many times in 2012 and 2011, so his fire would be a welcome addition. He could compete right away with Newhouse and Sherrod at left tackle or be the top back-up option at RT or LT.


Round 3 (B):


Kawann Short- DT- Purdue:

The Packers need to add more depth to their defensive line with Worthy coming off a knee injury and Short is an impact type of player. He had 14.5 tackles for loss and 6 sacks in 2012 and can play the run well as well. He reminds me of current Packer and former Boiler Maker Mike Neal who had a solid 2012 season. Short is sneaky athletic and a player that can get to the QB on any given snap.


Round 4:


Khaled Holmes- C- USC:

The Packers will not be keeping Jeff Saturday and Evan Deitrich-Smith is already starting for them at center. But they need to add a player that can come in and eventually compete with Deitrich-Smith and Holmes can do just that. He protected Matt Barkley since they both played together at Mater Dei HS and at USC. He has the size and strength that teams look for but is needs some work fundamentally in order to be a top flight center. Holmes can also play guard as well which fits in nicely with the Packers who like versatile lineman. Scouts I have talked to have him as a 4th-5th round guy.


Round 5 (A):


Ray-Ray Armstrong- S- Faulkner University:

Ray Ray Armstrong would be a a top 100 pick if things had played out differently at the University of Miami. He was ruled ineligible for taking benefits from an agent. The NCAA ruled he couldn't play at the FBS level and he transferred to Faulkner University. He has the size (6'3/215) speed (sub 4.4) and skills to be an impact player right away. But not playing football at a high level last season and a few minor injury questions (at Miami) have some NFL teams wondering. I spoke to 4 different scouts for NFL teams and they all agreed that Armstrong is a guy that is projected to be a late round (6th or 7th round) or Undrafted Priority Rookie FA. For the Packers, this value is to good and he would come in and compete from day 1 for a lot of playing time.


Round 5 (B):


Brandon Williams- DT- Missouri Southern:


The Packers will need to make a decision on BJ Raji soon and Williams has some nice ability to work with. I also feel the Packers need to get a player behind Raji that can not only stop the run, but also get to the QB. While Williams level of competition was not great, he has the size (6'2/325) that makes him an intriguing prospect. He is a guy that I feel could fit in the Packers defensive line rotation at a variety of of positions.
 

Round 6:


EJ Manuel- QB- Florida St:

Manuel is a project as a QB but possesses very good tools to work with. He is a kid that has  good arm strength and decent accuracy. He won 4 bowl games as a starter during his time at FSU. He has good size (6'4/240). He has ran the "pistol" offense and could be a different type of player in Mike McCarthy's offense. He also would be able to help out on the scout team against QB's like Collin Keapernick, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III. While Aaron Rodgers is the unequivocal starting QB, the Packers back-up situation is not as settled with Graham Harrell and (now 2nd year player) BJ Coleman.


Round 7:


Knile Davis- RB- Arkansas:

In Davis' sophomore year, he ran for 1,322 yards (leading the SEC) and 13 TD's in 2010. He re-broke his left ankle during the Razorbacks spring game and missed 2011. In 2012, Davis ran for only 377 yards and 2 TD's playing behind Dennis Johnson. While his numbers weren't great by what he did 2 years ago, he has the size, speed, vision and overall ability to be a special back in the right system. He flourished in Bobby Petrino's spread offense, and he could be even better in Mike McCarthy's offense with all the weapons the Packers have at WR and TE. He is projected to go anywhere from the 4th through the 7th round. At this point in the draft it's a high reward no risk move if Davis proves to be a stud back.






« Last Edit: January 14, 2013, 06:20:08 AM by 68MD »

Online claymaker

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Re: Arrigo Mock v2.0
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2013, 10:34:41 PM »
I played with E.J Manuel at Bayside High School. He was rated the #1 pro style QB because of his size, not his talent. He's no CK, Newton, or RGII... not even close. I don't like the pick because I have watched his career at FSU with a lot of interest and he is still the same player he was back in high school in my mind.

I am a big fan of Armstrong. I think he is exactly what GB needs at Safety.

Manuel is the only pick I'm not a fan of. I would be alright with everything else, but why no linebackers? Losing Walden, possibly Jones, and Bishop's injury in mind they are looking thin there.


Antonio Andolini

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Re: Arrigo Mock v2.0
« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2013, 11:23:41 PM »
Joe I had a ? about the trade with Miami, it seems a little lopsided in our favor. You also had us getting two 2nd rd picks from them plus our own would be three but had us draft only two in the 2nd. Also no comp. picks. I like the ideas you have on the players taken and agree with your logic, it would certainly improve our team if things played out something like this. I also see us tagging Jennings, he could bridge the gap to getting our next young WR ready for a year or we could get nice compensation for him this year, win win.

Offline vegas492

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Re: Arrigo Mock v2.0
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2013, 09:10:14 AM »
First off, the trade/franchise scenario....I don't think anyone in the league takes Hawk at his contract.  I truly hope that you are right and we can trade him, but I just don't see it happening.

Love that you kept Jennings.

If you posted this prior to the San Fran game, I'd be all over it, in a good way.  I really do like the picks.  Especially the "boom/bust" of Ray Ray and Knile.

But after the game, I'm left wondering if we couldn't find better ILB's....

Offline JPPlaya

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Re: Arrigo Mock v2.0
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2013, 02:08:59 PM »
I like the draft!

Fills needs and I also agree that Jennings is LIKELY to be franchised. Gb will either keep him for the season at the franchise rate or they'll deal him and get at least a 2nd for him. Either way GB wins!

I love the Woods pick. I have only studied the players on a limited basis so far, but he's a guy that I like.

If we can get value for Hawk, I'm all for it.

I also think that Finley is likely gone. It's more to do with his antics than upside. GB may be able to get something for him as well, but not much.

Offline Terranimal

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Re: Arrigo Mock v2.0
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2013, 07:46:12 PM »
Come on Joe, you know the trade value charts and this would have a zero chance of happening and is way in the Pack's favor.

Though not comfirmed yet, the guy who usually gets the comp picks correct has predicted us getting a 4th rd comp for Flynn and a 7th for Wells because we signed Saturday.