Experts call on the draft

[marklawrence]

1. Cleveland Browns — Sam Darnold, QB               Experts: 5 out of 8
2. New York Giants — Josh Rosen, QB                                     Experts: 6 out of 8
3. Indianapolis Colts — Saquon Barkley, RB or Bradley Chubb, DE         Experts: 3 each out of 8
4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans) — Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB      Experts: 4 out of 8
5. Denver Broncos — Baker Mayfield, QB                                  Experts: 3 out of 8
6. New York Jets — Baker Mayfield, QB, Bradley Chubb, DE, or Minkah Fitzpatrick CB  Experts: 2 each out of 8
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Bradley Chubb, DE                             Experts: 3 out of 8
8. Chicago Bears — Calvin Ridley, WR                                    Experts: 2 out of 8
9. San Francisco 49ers — Quenton Nelson, G                              Experts: 5 out of 8
10. Oakland Raiders — Roquan Smith, LB                                  Experts: 3 out of 8
11. Miami Dolphins — Derwin James, S                                    Experts: 3 out of 8
12. Cincinnati Bengals — Brian O'Neill, OT                              Experts: 2 out of 8
13. Washington Redskins — Josh Allen, QB                                Experts: 2 out of 8
14. Green Bay Packers — Denzel Ward, CB or Marcus Davenport, DE         Experts: 2 each out of 8
15. Arizona Cardinals — Baker Mayfield, QB, Josh Allen, QB, or Josh Jackson, CB   Experts: 2 each out of 8
16. Baltimore Ravens — Calvin Ridley, WR                                Experts: 4 out of 8
17. Los Angeles Chargers — Da'Ron Payne, DT or Orlando Brown, OT        Experts: 2 each out of 8
18. Seattle Seahawks — Mike McGlinchey, OT                              Experts: 2 out of 8
19. Dallas Cowboys — Da'Ron Payne, DT or Maurice Hurst, DT              Experts: 2 each out of 8
20. Detroit Lions — Derrius Guice, RB                                   Experts: 3 out of 8
21. Buffalo Bills — Lamar Jackson, QB, Mason Rudolph, QB, or Rashaan Evans, LB   Experts: 2 each out of 8
22. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City Chiefs) — Vita Vea, DT or Tremaine Edmunds, LB   Experts: 2 each out of 8
23. Los Angeles Rams — Carlton Davis, CB                                Experts: 4 out of 8
24. Carolina Panthers — Courtland Sutton, WR                            Experts: 3 out of 8
25. Tennessee Titans — no consensus                                     Experts: N/A
26. Atlanta Falcons — Isaiah Oliver, CB                                 Experts: 2 out of 8
27. New Orleans Saints — no consensus                                   Experts:  N/A
28. Pittsburgh Steelers — Rashaan Evans, LB                             Experts: 3 out of 8
29. Jacksonville Jaguars* — no consensus                                Experts:  N/A
30. Philadelphia Eagles* — Kolton Miller, OT                            Experts: 2 out of 8
31. Minnesota Vikings* — Billy Price, OL                                Experts: 2 out of 8
32. New England Patriots* — Taven Bryan, DT                             Experts: 2 out of 8
The experts: ESPN's Mel Kiper, Walter Football, RJ White of CBSSports.com, USA Today's Luke Easterling, Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com, Eric Galko of Sporting News, Rotoworld's Josh Norris, and DraftTek.

[OneTwoSixFive]

Even where there is pretty good consensus beyond the first two picks, like the 49ers (5 out of 8 experts) taking a guard at pick 9/10 (coin flip), it could so easily be an OT or a WR or a CB.

I always think that in many mock drafts, the architect of the mock looks for somewhere to shoehorn in a good player, even if it is not a good fit. While the 49ers really need a guard (and Nelson is a very good one), they have many other needs that could command a high pick, and they can still get a good guard later. It just isn't a premium position like OT, WR, CB.

Remember, several years ago they got Iupati as a guard in round one. He was great at the 49ers, but they had to get rid of him when the second contract became due, as they didn't want to commit big money to the guard position. Using your highest pick at a non-premier position and a short career (with the team that drafted him), is not a recipe for good drafting, especially when you have many positions that need an upgrade.

As long as a draft mocker always tries to make a sensible decision at each spot, he will have a better chance of getting closer to how the draft really pans out. For example, I believe guard Nelson will fall in the draft. He is probably top 5  overall in talent, but I expect him to fall to a point where the difference between him and the other available prospects is big enough, that he cannot be passed over any longer. That may be as early as the late teens, or maybe in the 20's.

Also, most mocks never really address the elephant in the room, the one where teams really like a particular player that is not their most acute need, and take him. Even worse, trades will certainly mess up the order, making all mocks pretty useless, though they can be fun, fans like to see them, and writers have to write, well, something, in the sleepy dog-days, before the draft.

I also found it interesting that CB Ward was mocked to the Packers even though they don't tend to take CBs under 5'11". I would have guessed Iowa CB, Joshua Jackson, as a more logical choice, though I acknowledge that as TT is no longer GM, that might change.

There still seems to be uncertainty as to how the more talented edge rushers stack up to each other. Davenport, Landry, Key, Okoronkwo, any of these could well be available when the Packers pick.............so who is the best choice ?

[dannobanano]

Even where there is pretty good consensus beyond the first two picks, like the 49ers (5 out of 8 experts) taking a guard at pick 9/10 (coin flip), it could so easily be an OT or a WR or a CB.

I always think that in many mock drafts, the architect of the mock looks for somewhere to shoehorn in a good player, even if it is not a good fit. While the 49ers really need a guard (and Nelson is a very good one), they have many other needs that could command a high pick, and they can still get a good guard later. It just isn't a premium position like OT, WR, CB.

Remember, several years ago they got Iupati as a guard in round one. He was great at the 49ers, but they had to get rid of him when the second contract became due, as they didn't want to commit big money to the guard position. Using your highest pick at a non-premier position and a short career (with the team that drafted him), is not a recipe for good drafting, especially when you have many positions that need an upgrade.

As long as a draft mocker always tries to make a sensible decision at each spot, he will have a better chance of getting closer to how the draft really pans out. For example, I believe guard Nelson will fall in the draft. He is probably top 5  overall in talent, but I expect him to fall to a point where the difference between him and the other available prospects is big enough, that he cannot be passed over any longer. That may be as early as the late teens, or maybe in the 20's.

Also, most mocks never really address the elephant in the room, the one where teams really like a particular player that is not their most acute need, and take him. Even worse, trades will certainly mess up the order, making all mocks pretty useless, though they can be fun, fans like to see them, and writers have to write, well, something, in the sleepy dog-days, before the draft.

I also found it interesting that CB Ward was mocked to the Packers even though they don't tend to take CBs under 5'11". I would have guessed Iowa CB, Joshua Jackson, as a more logical choice, though I acknowledge that as TT is no longer GM, that might change.

There still seems to be uncertainty as to how the more talented edge rushers stack up to each other. Davenport, Landry, Key, Okoronkwo, any of these could well be available when the Packers pick.............so who is the best choice ?

Well said OneTwoSixFive.

The other thing mockers (especially this early in the process) don't factor in is how Free Agency will affect a teams "current" top priority. It's like trying to throw a football from LA through a window in NY.

[ricky38]

Marcus Davenport is suppose to be a freak of nature but he also listed as a project. The Packers don't need another project from the 14th pick in the draft. They need someone who can come in and be a playmaker on defense right away.