September 23, 2018, 07:18:20 PM

Author Topic: QB run alters big board and helps Packers a ton  (Read 822 times)

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Offline NOLAPackerfan

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QB run alters big board and helps Packers a ton
« on: February 16, 2018, 12:54:36 PM »
Realizing every "expert" site is going to have different rankings, and everything will change a lot after the combine, I think the Packers really luck out this year, and I don't see many ways BG can screw up his first pick.  I think the Packers really luck out with the sheer number of teams looking for QBs.  I honestly don't think any of these QBs should be in the top 10 of a big board for this class, but I think 3-5 will for sure go before pick 14. 

This essentially gives the Packers a top ten pick based on position player talent level.  That being said, look at my personal big board and it's significance to who pick 14 could be (note the 4 QBs listed as A-D are displayed out of place on the big board simply because I do not believe they belong in the top 10-12 picks, but do believe their selections will be foregone conclusions unless any of them royally screw up their combines or interviews):

A) Darnold
B) Rosen
C) Mayfield
D) Allen
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5) S Barkley, RB
6) B Chubb, DE
7) Q Nelson, OG
8) M Fitzpatrick, S/CB
9) D James, S
10) T Edmunds, OLB/Edge
11) J Jackson, CB
12) R Smith, ILB
13) C Ridley, WR
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14) M McGlinchey, OT
15) D Ward, CB
16) V Vea, DT/NT
17) H Landry, OLB/Edge
18) C Williams, OT
19) D Guice, RB
20) A Key, OLB/Edge
21) C Kirk, WR
22) M Davenport, OLB/Edge

Other than the OT's, which I don't really see as a need at this time, I think any of the guys listed from 14-22 could really help the Packers.  Furthermore, pretty much all the guys listed from 5-13 would also fill need areas, so if the combine shakes up the big board, or teams start picking odd, I feel like we really can't make a "bad" pick, at least based on first impressions (anyone can go bad in retrospect).

I think under this scenario, I'd be rooting hard for Landry or Key...with the dark horse being Vea.  I think Landry and Vea are your safe, multiple pro-bowl type players, while Key is higher upside, but bigger bust potential. While DT isn't really a pressing need, I'd have a hard time personally passing on Vea.  I think he will blow up the combine and probably shoot into the top ten picks by running a 4.7 40 at 340 lbs.  A 3-4 DL featuring Daniels, Clark and Vea could be dominant and take up a lot of double teams, allowing the scheme to free up guys like CM3, Perry, Fackrell and Biegel or anyone drafted later rounds or signed in FA.

In round 1, I'd almost prefer a CB to any other position, but I just don't see any that are perfect fits for the scheme, so you go the next best route and help the pass rush however you can.

In round 2 I'd be hoping for a press CB or a WR with elite speed.  I think James Washington could fit that mold, but he may require a trade up unless his game speed isn't reflected at the combine.

If we don't find a speed WR in this draft, I'd be all for cutting Cobb and signing a guy like Moncrief, Albert Wilson or jaron brown maybe.  I think any of those guys would help lift the top while Davonte and Nelson run their normal route trees.

The later rounds we definitely need some OG, RT prospects, more WR depth, and more pass rushers and I think we can be solid.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2018, 12:58:09 PM by NOLAPackerfan »

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: QB run alters big board and helps Packers a ton
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2018, 01:36:49 PM »
I posted this on another site awhile back but it is worth re-poting here (with a couple of alterations)

A slightly different approach to the draft. Take several mocks and mark down the positions taken for the first 13 picks (it doesn't matter who goes where). Now compare them to see how many guys go at each position and average it out. Now you can get an idea of who is left.

QB average 3 (perhaps Rosen, Darnold, Jackson) I don't expect Allen to be drafted before pick 14.
WR average 0
TE average  0
RB average  1 (Barkley)
OT average  2 (Brown, Williams)
OG average  1 (Nelson)
OC average  0
DT average   1 (Hurst or Vea)
DE/OLB average 2 (Chubb and one of Okoronkwo or Davenport or Key or Landry)
ILB average  1 (Smith)
S   average    1 (Fitzpatrick)
CB average   1 (Jackson)

There are the 13 players gone when the Packers pick. Of course other players might be picked above these, like Ward over Jackson at CB or Miller/Okorafor/McGlinchey over one of the other OTs. Still, this gives some idea of who is available when the Packers pick without worrying exactly who picks what above the Pack.

My two top positions for the first round of the draft are pass rusher (DE/OLB) and wide receiver. Some may have TE as the top need, but there aren't many options that are value, this high. The other big need is Cornerback. I'm hoping the Pack get one decent vet here, but they still need to draft one. A few fans have tagged OT, but personally, opposite Bakhtiari, I'd roll with Spriggs, Murphy and Bulaga when he comes back, at least for 2018. I'd probably take a tackle later, but not this early. I have no problem with getting a tackle early in a draft, but I don't think this is the year (though next year might be).

Pass rusher looks thinner with Ferrell and Bryant going back to college. There are still options, but it's looking like first round only for the best prospects. If Chubb and one other guy goes in picks 1-13, we still have three of Okoronkwo, Key, Landry, Davenport left - and if one more is taken before pick #14 there are still two options. I rather like Landry, but there is a good case for other guys. Key could be elite, but in my mind he is a bigger boom/bust guy than some others. Tremaine Edmunds might just be THE most talented guy available as a pass rusher, but played inside a lot at college, so there might be a learning curve to switch to an NFL full time pass rusher.

WR is an interesting position, because several mocks have no WRs going 1-13, while a couple have one going. That means you could go with drafting  the speed/suddeness  of Washington or Ridley, versus the size of Sutton, St.Brown, Tate (though neither Sutton or St.Brown are slow by any means). Such a choice is a very attractive prospect that might just take your mind away from pass rusher in round 1. If you see a DE/OLB prospect you believe will be there in round two, it makes WR even more attractive. I'd probably still go pass rusher in the first though, and hope one of Washington or Gallup was there, for the second round pick.

CB has one prospect with a good chance of being there, Denzel Ward. He is a very good CB, but probably below Ted's minimum height if he is really 5'10". Of course, Ted is no longer GM, so different thinking may prevail here. I believe round three is a good spot for a CB, while the comp 3rd (if the Packers get it) and 4th are TE territory.

(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"

Offline dannobanano

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Re: QB run alters big board and helps Packers a ton
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2018, 04:19:57 PM »
Cousins, Bradford, Bridgewater, and now AJ McCarron (newly minted UFA) could cloud who/when/where the top 4 Rookie class QB's get drafted.

The waters are getting a little muddy.

Offline NOLAPackerfan

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Re: QB run alters big board and helps Packers a ton
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2018, 07:11:16 PM »
IMO, none of Bradford, bridgewater nor  McCarron would prevent me from picking a QB of the future unless I'm either the jaguars or Vikings.

Online The GM

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Re: QB run alters big board and helps Packers a ton
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2018, 01:36:54 PM »
I wouldnt rule out a team coming up for Lamar Jackson either.    Kid has some serious playmaking skills and a good combine could raise his stock.   We are in front of Arizona,  so we could get some offers from a team wanting to pull in front of AZ. A team like Buff or Pitt could be willing to come up.     

Offline dannobanano

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Re: QB run alters big board and helps Packers a ton
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2018, 04:14:48 PM »
IMO, none of Bradford, bridgewater nor  McCarron would prevent me from picking a QB of the future unless I'm either the jaguars or Vikings.

You might be right, especially on Bridgewater. That gruesome injury may leave him a permanent risk for that to reoccur. He may never be the pre-injury Teddy ever again. Tough break. He's a decent kid.

But I wouldn't dismiss a team like the Giants (who are likely to take Saquon Barkley at #2) from trying to sign McCarron as the successor to Manning. Shermer could make it an open competition for who get's to be #1 QB. Wouldn't shock me.

I think the Browns or Bronco's are the two teams in the Cousins sweepstakes. The loser of that competition drafts a QB.

The Jets have so many needs that signing a player like Bradford and then drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd (Rudolph? Falk? someone else?) would allow them to address another need (WR? OT?) with their 1st round pick.

It will be interesting to watch.

And don't be surprised if AZ jumps into the #13 spot (since WASH now has Alex Smith), or even the #11 spot to get ahead of the Bungels, who are also likely to take a QB, as a pre-emptive strike to keep BUF and/or LAC from sneaking ahead of them.