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Offline wonderfulwilly

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The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« on: March 01, 2018, 12:45:40 PM »
I have a confession to make. I spend way too much time thinking about the Packers. And more specifically, I spend way too much time asking myself the question, "What would I do if I were GM of the Green Bay Packers?" I ponder and plot out a position by position plan every single year. Not only that, I can’t help myself but to take a peek into what next year brings too. It’s hard to look more than one year into the future in the ever changing NFL, but I have no doubt that the most consistent front offices in the NFL are thinking just as much about next year as they are this year.

Intrigue has been ramped up this year for many reasons. For one, the Packers uncharacteristically missed the playoffs last year, leaving everyone on edge, and Mike McCarthy on the hot seat heading into 2019. But give McCarthy credit, because he’s smart enough to know he is on the hot seat. The usually stubborn and loyal-to-a-fault head coach was forced to make changes - most notably at defensive coordinator. Maybe the pressure to make those changes really came from somewhere else, but I have no doubt that McCarthy has had many look-yourself-in-the-mirror moments in the past few months.
And for intrigue reason #2 - how about a new GM running the show?

But what if Brian Gutenkunst wasn’t the new GM? What if I was the GM? What would be my plan of attack?

I usually don’t write it out in such detail, but the Packers usually don’t have a fluctuation in their overall team building philosophy either. I feel compelled to write it all down. If nothing else, it will allow my resting thoughts to wander elsewhere. Hopefully you get something out of it. By the end, I believe I will have a plan in place to field a championship caliber team for 2018 and 2019, while remaining financially stable and prudent. And the plan involves using free agency. Unpopular decisions will need to made along the way, but it can be done.

One important note. I have never been able to find a comprehensive contract prediction guide at this point in the offseason. So I will have to take some liberties. But the bottom line is that none of the contract numbers you will find in this article are entirely out of whack.

Another important note. I don’t follow college football enough to predict specific players being drafted in specific slots. But I do follow the Packers, and I know where the holes are. The draft section of this article attaches a position to a draft pick. And it operates on the idea and assumption that need and value will meet every step of the way. Of course, this isn’t a perfect world. Some position groups are stronger some years, some groups are weaker. And some guys go much higher than expected, some go much lower. Consider my draft predictions to be more of an analysis on the Packer’s long-term needs more than anything.

Here we go.

The Packers currently have 21 mil in “Top 51” cap space according to Spotrac.

Current Roster

Cut:
Cobb (+9.5)
Nelson (+10.2)
Bulaga (+4.7)

After those cuts, we have 45.4 mil in cap space.

Restructure Matthews (3/30, 9 SB, Cap Hits: 1=6, 2=11, 3=13). Matthews would be a tough cut, but I thought about going in that direction. Ultimately, I’m too excited to see what Mike Pettine can do with Matthews to let him go. And besides, who are we going to realistically sign in free agency to fill that void?

Matthews’ 2018 Cap Hit goes from 11.3 to 6. That leaves 50.7 mil in cap space.

Aaron Rodgers will also be extended at some point soon, likely this offseason. I am not going to pretend to know how those numbers will shake out. I am just going to pretend that his cap charges will be the same 20.5 million in 2018 and 21.1 in million in 2019. If the extension does happen this year, it is unlikely that cap number will grow in the first year of the contract. And his cap number may even go down in 2018, with the bigger numbers getting pushed to the end of the contract.

Free Agency

WR Jordy Nelson (2/14, 4 SB, Cap Hits: 1=6, 2=8). He may not be the first free agent the Packers sign, but I had to address the WR situation, lest I lose some of you immediately upon seeing that I cut Nelson. Nelson gets a chance to feel out the market, and may get slightly better offers elsewhere, but he’s not leaving the team if a fair, market value deal is struck. And if he really starts to hit a wall in 2018, he can be cut after the first year, freeing up 6 mil in 2019 cap space.

CB Kyle Fuller (4/44, 16 SB, Cap Hits: 1=8, 2=10, 3=12, 4=14). Cornerback is the #1 position of need heading into the offseason. Ever since Sam Shields’ career ended in Week 1 of 2016, the cornerback position group has been abysmal. This team desperately needs a starter at the position that they can hang their hat on. The injury history of Fuller may make some queasy, including myself a bit, but he can be #1 cornerback when healthy, albeit an unconventional #1. His youth, instincts, ball skills, and added ability to play the slot make him a strong signing. There are rumblings that the Bears will franchise tag Fuller. If that happens, there are other worthy cornerbacks on the market to consider for this salary slot.

WR Donte Moncrief (2/14, 6 SB, Cap Hits: 1=7, 2=7). I was a big proponent of adding Moncrief as soon as the regular season ended. And it looks like the idea is gaining traction across the internet. Call me a Moncrief hipster if you want, but the upside is enormous. Yet he is another young talent with an injury history. But his talent fits in perfectly with Nelson and Adams, and he does have a track record of success with Andrew Luck, when both were healthy. He will relish in the opportunity to play with Rodgers, rehabilitate his value, and find out his true worth in two years.

TE Trey Burton (3/21, 7.5 SB, Cap Hits: 1=5, 2=7, 3=9). It appears to be a weak year for free agent tight ends. Guys like Luke Willson and Ausin Sefarian Jenkins are intriguing. But during the Eagles magical Super Bowl run, the name of Trey Burton kept coming up. He is undersized, but appears to be a quality overall tight end with above average athleticism and youth on his side. On top of that, I saw some
moments, when he was pressed into regular season duty, where he looked downright nasty when picking up his blocking assignments. I love a tight end that can get after guys. He is a hot name right now, so it will take some money, but the money is there to get it done. He is the best tight end on the market.

S Tavon Wilson (2/6, 2 SB, Cap Hits: 1=2.5, 2=3.5). It appears that Morgan Burnett will be overpaid. I have seen numbers in the range of $10 million per year being thrown around. There is zero reason to bring back Burnett for that kind of coin. Wilson is coming off a shoulder injury, and a bit of a down year, but is an underrated overall safety. And I don’t see a big market upcoming for the 28 year old. He immediately competes with Josh Jones for the starting job, and can make a solid starter if he wins it. This is the type of middle class signing that, if it pays off, will benefit the team greatly.

G Jahri Evans (1/2, Cap Hits: 1=2). Evans was a steady starter last year. With no one waiting in the wings at RG, and Evans’ market value not breaking the bank at his age, I see no reason not to bring him back and plug him in at RG again.

CB Davon House (1/1.5, Cap Hits: 1=1.5). When he was healthy early in the season, House was the best boundary CB on the roster. I see an undervalued depth player with leadership ability and a lot to play for.

OLB Ahmad Brooks (1/1.5, Cap Hits: 1=1.5). Like everyone who put on a Packer uniform in 2017, Brooks dealt with injuries. But when on the field, despite a lack of explosive pass rush, Brooks provided a steady, instinctive presence. And he made an occasional big play from time to time. I see no reason not bring him back cheaply to bolster the team’s edge depth.

50.7 mil in cap space - 33.5 mil in free agency = 17.2 mil left in cap space.

The Draft

I don’t know enough about individual players in any given draft, and I’m not going to pretend that I do. But I see the team needs after free agency. In a perfect world, where need and value meet, these are the positions that I hope to see drafted.

1. OLB - This is the #1 obvious need left on the team after free agency, and there is no more money to throw at the position beyond Matthews and Perry. This is a pick for the present and future. If this pick really takes off in year two, Matthews can move more toward his best position at this point in his career, inside linebacker.

2. ILB - With Martinez and Ryan at ILB, and Matthew moving more and more toward the position, ILB seems like a luxury pick. But I’m looking for a Mike Pettine special here, and I feel like it’s coming in this draft. I have to go back to the old saying: “You can never go wrong drafting a good football player”. A second round ILB allows you to let Ryan leave in 2019, and potentially keeps you from having to pay a non-needle-mover in Martinez in 2020. Just from a money standpoint, if this pick works out, you won’t have to spend any money at ILB for quite awhile (unless you want to consider Matthews an ILB). On top
of that, a kick-ass middle linebacker can certainly set the tone for a defense that desperately needs an attitude adjustment.

3. CB - The Fuller and House additions provide immediate protection at the CB position, but I’m not going to wait long on adding another high-end prospect. The CB position has been the biggest problem on this team for two years now, so I want to add prospects wherever I can. A third round CB would ideally serve a bit of a redshirt year, unless he forces his way on to the field early, or injuries hit the position again. Anyway you look at it, this player may be penciled into the nickel or dime role in 2019.

4a. OL - I can be a superstitious man, so the fourth round, as it always does, feels like a good point to grab an offensive lineman. He will serve as depth his first year, with the potential to take over at RG in year two. The ideal scenario is Josh Sitton or TJ Lang, Part 2. Or, who knows, RT may not be out of the question. I see no reason to move away from the philosophy that Ted Thompson brought to scouting offensive linemen.

4b. S - Safety has never been a more important position around the NFL. The Packers need further talent at the position developing behind HHCD, Jones, and Wilson. And HHCD is a pending free agent, so a back-up plan is needed.

5a. RB - There is an opening behind Jones and Williams, and this is another strong draft at the RB position. There will be talent in round five, and NFL RBs are found every year late in the draft. This is a no brainer.

5b. TE - Tight ends rarely make an impact in their rookie year. With veterans like Burton and Kendricks solidifying the roster in 2018, a fifth round tight end with some upside would fill a future depth need without getting thrown to the wolves in his rookie year. This represents the perfect scenario for a rookie tight end. And a #2 tight end will be needed in 2019, with Kendricks expiring. And it’s also possible Trey Burton doesn’t live up to the hype, so we better have someone developing behind him.

5c. Trade - I am trading a 5 in 2018 for a 7 this year, and a 5 and 7 in 2019. The 2018 splash into free agency will leave the Packers with zero compensatory picks in 2019. So this is my way of spreading the wealth a bit. I don’t see any other glaring depth needs on the 2018 roster, so I am pushing picks into the future.

6a, 6b, 7a, 7b. Use these for the best player available, as part of a trade package, or push some into 2019. Always take the best player at this point in the draft - no exceptions. Just to throw darts I will say the Packers will trade one 6 for a 6 and 7 in 2019, and chose a DL with the other 6. And they will find some potential at QB and WR in round seven.

17.2 mil in cap space - 8 mil in rookie pool money = 9.2 mil left over in 2018

The 2018 Roster

QB (keep 2): Rodgers, Hundley/Callahan/vet min FA/7RDP. Many want to replace Hundley, but I am willing to see the process through. I would be willing to bring in a veteran free agent for the minimum,
or close to it, as competition. And I am willing to give Callahan a fair shake, but I think Hundley ends up winning out anyway. He will be better in 2018 if he is pressed into duty.

RB, FB (keep 4): Jones, Williams, Ripkowski, 5RDP/Mays/UDFA. Montgomery can have his packages, but Jones and Williams have proven themselves. I would expect the 5RDP to win the fourth spot. This position is young, cheap, and talented.

WR (keep 6): Adams, Nelson, Moncrief, Davis/Allison/Montgomery/Clark/Yancey/7RDP/UDFA. The WR position was essentially skipped in the draft, due to the talent up and down the depth chart. WR will need a young talent infusion soon, but it is best to let the competition play out for the 4-6 spots in 2018. I would anticipate Davis, Allison, and Montgomery to win the 4-6 spots. But Clark is fascinating, and there is an UDFA every year that seems to make a splash.

TE (keep 3 or 4): Burton, Kendricks, 5RDP, vet min FA (like Richard Rodges), UDFA. I would expect three to be kept. Burton holds the key to the TE position improving in 2018. Kendricks is a strong, versatile #2 in this league.

OL (keep 8 or 9): Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, Evans, Murphy, Spriggs, 4RDP, McCray/Patrick/Amichia/UDFA. RT feels like it could be the one weak spot on the roster, but it is time to let Murphy and Spriggs compete for the job. The thought has crossed my mind to explore bringing Bulaga back for a league minimum-ish salary. He will probably need to start the year on the PUP list, but would provide a strong insurance policy. If the RT position works out, odds are that the 4RDP, McCray, and Patrick will round out the 7-9 spots and serve as quality depth.

DL (keep 5 or 6): Daniels, Clark, Lowry, Adams, vet min FA (like Dial)/6RDP/UDFA. I would expect five to be kept, with a veteran like Quinton Dial winning the last job, due to the consistency that he represents if someone above him were to go down with an injury. Under Mike Pettine, this group may have a chance to truly shine.

ILB (keep 3 or 4): Martinez, Ryan, 2RDP, Thomas/UDFA. I would expect three to be kept, especially with the cross training that some of the OLBs and safeties will be performing.

OLB (keep 6): Matthews, Perry, 1RDP, Brooks, Biegel/Fackrell/Gilbert/Odom/UDFA. Four spots are locked in, with some good competition for two more spots. We will all be watching for someone to step up from the bottom of the position group. There are always opportunities to get capable pass rushers on the field.

CB (keep 6 or 7): Fuller, King, Randall, 3RDP, House/Rollins/Hawkins/Pipkins/Waters/Brown/UDFA. House is close to a lock. So that leaves a bevy of competition for one or two spots. It is time for someone to step up from that bottom group, and the 2018 roster crunch is the motivation needed.

S (keep 5): HHCD, Wilson, Jones, 4RDP, Brice/Evans/Whitehead. There are three NFL talents competing for one spot - strong depth. If HHCD bounces back, he will get paid handsomely in 2019. But there is salary cap room for him in 2019.

K/P/LS (keep 3): Crosby, Vogel, Goode (or whoever, not worried about LS).

Looking Beyond 2018

I hit the character limit for a post. See the next post for the rest of the article.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2018, 12:47:48 PM by wonderfulwilly »

Offline wonderfulwilly

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2018, 12:46:25 PM »
The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers - Continued

Looking Beyond 2018

A GM’s job is to not only build the roster for the present year, but to keep future years in mind. The very next year weighs heavily, and is about as far out as one can project in the ever changing NFL. Let’s take a look.

2019 Cap Space: Overthecap projects 73.5 mil

Adjustments:
Bulaga cut: (+6.75)
Matthews (-11)
Nelson (-8)
Fuller (-10)
Moncrief(-7)
Wilson (-3.5)
Burton(-7)
+9.2 carried over from 2018

That leaves the projected 2019 cap space very healthy at 43 million. Aaron Rodgers 2018 extension could cut into this number a bit, but it is nothing that can’t be overcome.

Resignings

Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix (4/38, 16 SB, Cap Hits: 1=7, 2=9, 3=10, 4=12). I am going to be a realist and presume that HHCD, for the most part, bounces back in 2018, but also continues to display his shortcomings. Which is a long way of saying that he will solidify himself as an above average safety in his prime. That type of player gets paid, and the Packers can’t afford to let him go, unless they are getting a similar player back in free agency. It’s easier to just project HHCD coming back.

Damarious Randall (2/14, 6 SB, Cap Hits: 1=6, 2=8). I will project that the 2019 option is not picked up on Randall’s rookie contract, but he will continue to solidify himself as a capable NFL CB. Consistency will be the key, and I believe he will show more of it in 2018. Randall gets paid market value for a quality, proven slot corner in his prime. But the length of the contract leaves both sides happy, yet hungry for more.

Aaron Ripkowski (2/4.5, 1.5 SB, Cap Hits: 1=2, 2=2.5). He has had some ups and downs, but Ripkowski has proven himself to be one of the best lead blockers in the NFL. Even still, fullbacks come cheap.

2019 Adjusted Cap Space: 28 mil

Expiring Contracts in 2019 (in a sort of order of importance)

Evans, House, Montgomery, Ryan, Hundley, Brooks, Kendricks, Rollins, Dial.

2019 Free Agency Outlook

There is only one true starter expiring in Evans, and he is aging and needs to be replaced anyway. The team is in excellent shape to bring back pretty much everyone of importance from 2018. Therefore, I would expect the team, overall, to take a back-seat in FA in 2019. They have the opportunity to collect some 2020 compensatory picks for Montgomery, Ryan, and Hundley. I would expect someone to give Montgomery and Ryan a chance to start, and that will take some coin. And in the QB starved NFL, someone will throw some money Hundley’s way as a lottery ticket. On the surface, losing those three could provide two fifth round picks, and a sixth.

But I would expect the Packers to pick through free agency somewhat, as their salary cap situation is healthy. They could identify their biggest need, and take a swing at one of the best players at that position. Where could that hypothetical need come from? Here are the most likely scenarios. If Spriggs and Murphy aren’t cutting it, RT is a need. If Perry has another injury plagued season, Matthews continues to slow and migrate more toward ILB, and your 2018 first round pick doesn’t make much of a splash, OLB becomes a big need. If Jones or Wilson hasn’t stepped up at safety, there is another need.

Nothing ever goes entirely according to plan in the NFL. Some position is bound to stick out like a sore thumb at this point next year. For this exercise, I will leave things as they are and not sign a starter in free agency.

I would though expect the team to sign a back-up QB, for less than what Hundley signs for. I would expect them to eye up an older QB with less potential than Hundley, but more of a track record, to be their new #2.
I would also expect them to look over the veteran TE, OL, and CB markets for cheap depth/insurance policies. Kendricks, Evans, and/or House may be brought back to fill that void.

2019 Draft Outlook

Overall, the team will have a similar look to its 2018 counterpart. As always, young players will be expected to blossom into larger roles. The 2018 draft picks, especially 1RDP OLB, 2RDP ILB, 3RDP CB, and 4RDP OL, all will have increased expectations.

These are the remaining 2019 needs (in hopeful draft order where need and value meet):

WR: Montgomery leaves an opening. Nelson and Moncrief are expiring. WRs usually take a year to develop. All of those factors lead to drafting a WR early to develop.

OL: Evans is likely gone by now. Candidates exist to replace him, but more could be added. On top of that, both Murphy and Spriggs are expiring. Whoever is starting between the two may or may not get a new contract with the Packers. The uncertainty and future need brings an early round prospect into the fold.

DL: Forgotten about in 2018, the future of the DL is in flux. Daniels, Clark, and Lowry are expiring. Clark will have his fifth year option picked up, but uncertainty surrounds the other two. It’s time to add another prospect to the bottom of the depth chart in year one, and then count on the rise in year two.

CB: Fuller, King, and Randall are locked in. You have high hopes for your 2018 3RDP, but he is still an unknown to an extent. The rest of the roster projects as unproven talent at best. CB is too important, more reinforcements are needed. If I was running the show, I would be determined to not run out of quality cornerbacks again.

ILB: Ryan is gone, Martinez is expiring, and the team isn’t sure if they want to throw money his way. So a developing draft pick would be nice at the bottom of the depth chart.

TE: There are only two under contract. Veteran minimum tight ends can be had to fill out the depth chart, if needed, so TE depth is never a huge issue. But there is no harm in adding more potential to the position.

OLB: The depth chart looks sound, and a veteran minimum type of player could be added to fill a gap, but edge prospects are a sacred thing in the NFL.

2019 Offseason Overall

After paying your draft class and extending your expiring core players, the team is left with around 21 million dollars in cap space.

Conclusion

Some of these projections are a touch optimistic, but a lot of it is based in reality. Things won’t go exactly according to plan. With a 53 man roster, flexibility and the occasional ruthless roster move are necessary. But this team can in fact be built for the long haul by exploring every avenue of roster building, and by demonstrating calculated aggressiveness along with the foresight to stagger contract lengths and cap hits. Free agency can be a piece to the puzzle. The numbers don’t lie.

Online scoremore

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2018, 05:00:29 PM »
Great read thanks Willy.  Packers won't follow this path.  Packers are reluctant to cut good players or restructure their contracts.  Just not the way they go about their business.  A lot of guys want Cobb gone.  I don't.  He's still a dynamic playmaker.  Ok do he hasn't lived up to his contract so far.  Doesn't mean he won't going forward either.  Also in the minority on Bulaga.  I would stick with him.  Yes I know he has been injured but is still one of the best RT's in the league when healthy.  I'd pup him and keep him on the squad if he's not a go right away.  Think Matthews will have a good year with the new DC in town. 

As far as FA's if we could land a guy like Fuller that would be awesome.  Wilkerson is another I'd take a look at.  Brooks I'd bring back as well.  Outside of that not seeing the need to for the other guys.  Fill the remaining holes in the draft.

When putting a team together you have to take into account team chemistry.  Your moves would pretty much blow that up.  Anyway just my opinion and appreciate the work you put into this.  It gives everyone something to talk about.

Online The GM

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2018, 06:36:01 AM »
Cant see them spending the money for Moncrief.  Rodgers has the ability to make WRs better.  I  think you'll see one drafted before they go the FA route for a WR.  No question,  they need to get faster at the WR spot though.

Offline wonderfulwilly

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2018, 08:15:19 AM »
Great read thanks Willy.  Packers won't follow this path.  Packers are reluctant to cut good players or restructure their contracts.  Just not the way they go about their business.  A lot of guys want Cobb gone.  I don't.  He's still a dynamic playmaker.  Ok do he hasn't lived up to his contract so far.  Doesn't mean he won't going forward either.  Also in the minority on Bulaga.  I would stick with him.  Yes I know he has been injured but is still one of the best RT's in the league when healthy.  I'd pup him and keep him on the squad if he's not a go right away.  Think Matthews will have a good year with the new DC in town. 

As far as FA's if we could land a guy like Fuller that would be awesome.  Wilkerson is another I'd take a look at.  Brooks I'd bring back as well.  Outside of that not seeing the need to for the other guys.  Fill the remaining holes in the draft.

When putting a team together you have to take into account team chemistry.  Your moves would pretty much blow that up.  Anyway just my opinion and appreciate the work you put into this.  It gives everyone something to talk about.

Thanks for the feedback. I'm genuinely curious. Why do you think adding Moncrief, Burton, and Tavon Wilson, and then cutting Cobb and Bulaga and letting Burnett leave, would "blow up" team chemistry? That is basically all that is happening. This is the NFL. That is minor roster turnover for the average team. Is TT's way of doing things just so ingrained?

But you don't think adding Wilkerson would blow up team chemistry? I don't follow that logic.

Offline wonderfulwilly

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 08:26:41 AM »
Cant see them spending the money for Moncrief.  Rodgers has the ability to make WRs better.  I  think you'll see one drafted before they go the FA route for a WR.  No question,  they need to get faster at the WR spot though.

That is fine in theory, but there are limited draft picks. I see a good year for solid FA WRs, and very poor years at other positions. There's nothing great, but a lot of quality. So why not take advantage and use an early round draft pick on a different position?

Also, you say you don't want to spend the money. So are you advocating that we go into the year with Adams and Nelson or Cobb, and then an early round draft pick as the #3? Rookie WRs often times don't get the job done in their first year.

And we all know Rodgers can elevate the WR group. But where was Allison last year? Why haven't Montgomery and Trevor Davis taken off? Whatever happened to Jeff Janis? Rodgers can elevate WRs if necessary. But it lowers the offenses ceiling. This team has the ability to win a super bowl next year. Why stifle that ability when you could just spend a manageable amount of money on an NFL caliber WR with big upside?

Offline RT

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2018, 08:59:52 AM »
Cant see them spending the money for Moncrief.  Rodgers has the ability to make WRs better.  I  think you'll see one drafted before they go the FA route for a WR.  No question,  they need to get faster at the WR spot though.

That is fine in theory, but there are limited draft picks. I see a good year for solid FA WRs, and very poor years at other positions. There's nothing great, but a lot of quality. So why not take advantage and use an early round draft pick on a different position?

Also, you say you don't want to spend the money. So are you advocating that we go into the year with Adams and Nelson or Cobb, and then an early round draft pick as the #3? Rookie WRs often times don't get the job done in their first year.

And we all know Rodgers can elevate the WR group. But where was Allison last year? Why haven't Montgomery and Trevor Davis taken off? Whatever happened to Jeff Janis? Rodgers can elevate WRs if necessary. But it lowers the offenses ceiling. This team has the ability to win a super bowl next year. Why stifle that ability when you could just spend a manageable amount of money on an NFL caliber WR with big upside?

In all liklihood Adams, Nelson AND Cobb will be the first 3 WR's next season and a rookie replacing Allison as the 4th. Their is a learning curve with MM offense that requires time, timing and chemistry. Adding Moncrief wouldn't add anything more to the offense then adding a draft pick except at about 10X the cost. IMO

I realize the fun of fantasy GMing, but reality is it is much different than building a office fantasy team.

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2018, 01:13:56 PM »
Great read thanks Willy.  Packers won't follow this path.  Packers are reluctant to cut good players or restructure their contracts.  Just not the way they go about their business.  A lot of guys want Cobb gone.  I don't.  He's still a dynamic playmaker.  Ok do he hasn't lived up to his contract so far.  Doesn't mean he won't going forward either.  Also in the minority on Bulaga.  I would stick with him.  Yes I know he has been injured but is still one of the best RT's in the league when healthy.  I'd pup him and keep him on the squad if he's not a go right away.  Think Matthews will have a good year with the new DC in town. 

As far as FA's if we could land a guy like Fuller that would be awesome.  Wilkerson is another I'd take a look at.  Brooks I'd bring back as well.  Outside of that not seeing the need to for the other guys.  Fill the remaining holes in the draft.

When putting a team together you have to take into account team chemistry.  Your moves would pretty much blow that up.  Anyway just my opinion and appreciate the work you put into this.  It gives everyone something to talk about.

Thanks for the feedback. I'm genuinely curious. Why do you think adding Moncrief, Burton, and Tavon Wilson, and then cutting Cobb and Bulaga and letting Burnett leave, would "blow up" team chemistry? That is basically all that is happening. This is the NFL. That is minor roster turnover for the average team. Is TT's way of doing things just so ingrained?

But you don't think adding Wilkerson would blow up team chemistry? I don't follow that logic.

You are talking about cutting Cobb, Nelson, and Bulaga.  That's my beef.  Cobb and Aaron are pretty tight as is Jordy.   Restructuring Matthews Aaron's best friend on the team.  Yes these move would definitely affect chemistry.  Cobb and Nelson have played with Aaron a long time and know the offense.  Bulaga unless medically is an issue should be back as well.  These guys are 4 starters.  Don't think Matthews would take to kindly to a restructure either.  Think these moves have the possibility of creating bad blood on the team.

As far as Fuller not sure if he's a problem child or not.  But the kid can play.  The secondary obviously needs a little help.  We know it and they know it. Getting a guy like Wilkerson along the DL veteran presence and a stud.  Don't think that would affect chemistry either.  Think it would be a welcomed addition.

Well that's my logic but I am just an arm chair QB.  For what it's worth do think the Packers will work out something with Jordy.  The rest of the guys they will leave alone.

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2018, 05:50:48 PM »
My  twocents).

Cobb won't do a restructure, IMO. So they either keep him "as is" or trade/cut him. I won't pretend to know what they will do, just putting out there what I see the options are. I have read where CLEV/TEN/MIA could be a trade partner for Cobb. CLEV makes a lot of sense with Dorsey/Wolf/Highsmith all there. They know Cobb well, and they have the picks and tons of cash to absorb the 2018 portion of his contract. His veteran presence would also help whoever there QB will be as well. If they could get a 5th round pick for Cobb I would be satisfied.

As for Jordy. He indicated a while back that he doesn't want to play anywhere else, so I'm guessing he's open to a restructure of his contract, but most likely (only) if it includes an extension. Take his 2018 base/roster-workout bonuses and change them into a $10.25M signing bonus and add 2 years onto his contract. Give him a (2018) base of $1M, (2019) $4M, and (2020) $6M. His cap numbers then become (2018) $6.71, (2019) $7.41, (2020) $9.01M. In all likely hood he doesn't make it to the final year of the contract and only costs $3.41M in dead cap money to release him in 2020.

I'd apply the same philosophy to Matthews, but I think his asking price to accept an extension will definitely be higher than Nelson's. Interesting thing about CM3 is that Pettine has already said he likes the versatility he see's in Matthews, so I wonder what input he will have in that conversation? Bottome line? I think they will make an offer to extend him, and do it in such a way that it will lower his cap number for 2018.

Pettine also has an "in" with Wilkerson as his coach/mentor in New York when he was drafted. If anyone can influence him to come here on a 1 yr. prove it deal that's contract friendly to GB, it would be Pettine. It's a watch/see thing.

Speaking of input. Both OC Joe Philbin and the new "pass game coordinator" (Jim Hostler) came to GB from INDY, and so they should know more than a little bit about Donte Moncrief and what he could provide to the Packers offense. I'm sure they will be allowed to contribute to the disscussion when it comes to saying "yay" or "nay" regarding pursuing Moncrief in FA. I think it's a 50/50 shot he comes to GB.

I've loved the idea of making a play for Trey Burton for several weeks now. I'm sure they won't pay stupid money for him, but he could be the "cherry" FA of 2018, should they land him.

I'm content with bringing back House on another 1 yr prove it contract, and then drafting a CB early. House brings veteran leadership, but has limited market value because he missed so much time this last year with dings/nicks.

Keep Bulaga another year. When he's healthy he's a top R-OT. Give him the chance to come back, but spend a mid round pick on a OT like Tyrell Crosby or Brandon Parker. Murphy played adequately until he got hurt, but they can't rely on Spriggs and Ulrick John is also an UFA this year.

I prefer going after Trent Murphy/Edge-OLB in UFA, as opposed to bringing back Ahmad Brooks. Murphy has a non-stop motor and is much younger.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 05:51:51 PM by dannobanano »

Offline NYPACKATTACK

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Re: The Free Agency Debate: By the Numbers
« Reply #9 on: March 03, 2018, 09:07:31 AM »
Willy great read but you need to find a hobby.