September 23, 2018, 07:16:53 PM

Author Topic: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...  (Read 3007 times)

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Offline WTX_Cheese

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Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« on: March 07, 2018, 09:48:22 AM »
Just wanted everyone's Best Case/Worst Case for the top of the draft:

Best Case: Top Flight Defender at a position of need is available at #14. Personally, I'd love an EDGE guy like Landry, but CB or S would also be under consideration.

Worst Case: No top tier guy slips through the Top 10 picks and there ISN'T a big run on QB's. Someone adequate like McGlinchey (OT) drops and we take him.

I think we're going to definitely get a VERY good player at 14 either way, but I'm hoping for a difference maker on Defense.

Offline Ptpaq

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2018, 11:49:24 AM »
Best case scenario - Need as many QB's to go as possible and push talent down.
1.  Derwin James is there.
2.  We find good value in a trade down, we've got a lot of holes to fill and not a lot of cap room.

Worst case scenario - We are right at the cusp of a talent drop off at 14. If the QB's go and the the projected talent goes, we could be stuck at a watered down spot with nobody begging to trade up.

Offline RT

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2018, 01:16:57 PM »
Best case scenario- One of the top 4 QB's falls to 14 and he just happens to be the one that the Packers like the best.

The first draft choice that Ron Wolf used as Packers GM was to trade for Brett Favre when he had Majkowski. The first draft choice Ted Thompson used as the Packers GM was to draft Aaron Rodgers when he had Favre. Will the first draft choice Brian Gutekunst uses be on the QB of the future when he has Rodgers? Remember that in the weeks leading up to the Rodgers choice the drafting a QB was an unthinkable idea for most Packers fans at the time. Does Gutekunst have the stones to pull that trigger? Listening to his Presser from the combine I would say he doesn't really have the power to do anything without MM giving him the OK first. 

Worst case scenario- Not sure what the worst case would be, can't think of a single scenario that isn't a huge plus for the Packers. 

Online mtsportsfan

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2018, 04:05:13 PM »
Best case scenario- One of the top 4 QB's falls to 14 and he just happens to be the one that the Packers like the best.

The first draft choice that Ron Wolf used as Packers GM was to trade for Brett Favre when he had Majkowski. The first draft choice Ted Thompson used as the Packers GM was to draft Aaron Rodgers when he had Favre. Will the first draft choice Brian Gutekunst uses be on the QB of the future when he has Rodgers? Remember that in the weeks leading up to the Rodgers choice the drafting a QB was an unthinkable idea for most Packers fans at the time. Does Gutekunst have the stones to pull that trigger? Listening to his Presser from the combine I would say he doesn't really have the power to do anything without MM giving him the OK first. 

Worst case scenario- Not sure what the worst case would be, can't think of a single scenario that isn't a huge plus for the Packers.
have to disagree , with Farve waffling about retirement and Rodgers falling the way he did it was almost a no brainer, don't want to use a pick this high for a guy that might not ever play for us! Rodgers hasn't indicated anything about retirement.

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2018, 12:45:44 AM »
Best case scenario- One of the top 4 QB's falls to 14 and he just happens to be the one that the Packers like the best.

The first draft choice that Ron Wolf used as Packers GM was to trade for Brett Favre when he had Majkowski. The first draft choice Ted Thompson used as the Packers GM was to draft Aaron Rodgers when he had Favre. Will the first draft choice Brian Gutekunst uses be on the QB of the future when he has Rodgers? Remember that in the weeks leading up to the Rodgers choice the drafting a QB was an unthinkable idea for most Packers fans at the time. Does Gutekunst have the stones to pull that trigger? Listening to his Presser from the combine I would say he doesn't really have the power to do anything without MM giving him the OK first. 

Worst case scenario- Not sure what the worst case would be, can't think of a single scenario that isn't a huge plus for the Packers.

At least two years too early for that kind of move RT. Why ? See the Garoppolo nonsense, where New England had to trade away their future at QB, because his contract was ending and they couldn't afford the money it would have taken to secure the second contract). Sometime (about 2020) the Packers should prepare for getting a QB by trading away their first round pick for more/ higher picks in the following year. When THAT year rolls around, they have the ammo to go up high for a top QB.

My best case is the Packers trade down four to five places for an extra pick in the top third of round 3. One of Landry/Davenport/Edmunds/Vander Esch are still there at the lower round one pick.

My worst case is failure to get a high level pass rusher, in round one, because the pickings will be very thin by their second rounder at #45.

If the Packers can come out of day 2 of the draft with an OLB and two of CB, WR, TE, then they will have done the business in filling the most glaring holes.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2018, 12:54:16 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Offline RT

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2018, 08:00:09 AM »
Best case scenario- One of the top 4 QB's falls to 14 and he just happens to be the one that the Packers like the best.

The first draft choice that Ron Wolf used as Packers GM was to trade for Brett Favre when he had Majkowski. The first draft choice Ted Thompson used as the Packers GM was to draft Aaron Rodgers when he had Favre. Will the first draft choice Brian Gutekunst uses be on the QB of the future when he has Rodgers? Remember that in the weeks leading up to the Rodgers choice the drafting a QB was an unthinkable idea for most Packers fans at the time. Does Gutekunst have the stones to pull that trigger? Listening to his Presser from the combine I would say he doesn't really have the power to do anything without MM giving him the OK first. 

Worst case scenario- Not sure what the worst case would be, can't think of a single scenario that isn't a huge plus for the Packers.

At least two years too early for that kind of move RT. Why ? See the Garoppolo nonsense, where New England had to trade away their future at QB, because his contract was ending and they couldn't afford the money it would have taken to secure the second contract). Sometime (about 2020) the Packers should prepare for getting a QB by trading away their first round pick for more/ higher picks in the following year. When THAT year rolls around, they have the ammo to go up high for a top QB.

My best case is the Packers trade down four to five places for an extra pick in the top third of round 3. One of Landry/Davenport/Edmunds/Vander Esch are still there at the lower round one pick.

My worst case is failure to get a high level pass rusher, in round one, because the pickings will be very thin by their second rounder at #45.

If the Packers can come out of day 2 of the draft with an OLB and two of CB, WR, TE, then they will have done the business in filling the most glaring holes.

First off, I think their is little to no chance that the Packers draft a QB in the first round. A move like that would be made by a strong GM and I don't believe Gutekunst has any decision making power at all. McCarthey is calling all the shots now and he will be gone by the time Rodgers retires. He's not drafting a QB in the 1st round. With that said, I would think it would be a mistake to pass on a guy if he is the highest rated guy they had on their board. The over/under on the numbers of complete season that Rodgers plays the rest of his career is probably 1 and right now I think I would take the under.

As for the Patriots and Garoppolo, I believe that Billichicks plan all along was that Garoppolo was going to be his opening day starter in 2018. But the owner let his fandom get in the way of make a business decision. Because Craft made a decision based on emotion doesn't mean it was a mistake to draft Garoppolo.

Lastly, I wouldn't rule a DLineman out as a early round choice. With a new DC that will employ fewer of the 1 or 2 DL packages and more 3 down lineman, the need for more quality bodies may well be needed. Also, the DL guys that are human wreckingballs tend to have a short lifespan and I wonder if Daniels isn't already breaking down. He had a hard time staying healthy last year. 

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2018, 12:54:57 PM »
First off, I think their is little to no chance that the Packers draft a QB in the first round. A move like that would be made by a strong GM and I don't believe Gutekunst has any decision making power at all. McCarthey is calling all the shots now and he will be gone by the time Rodgers retires. He's not drafting a QB in the 1st round. With that said, I would think it would be a mistake to pass on a guy if he is the highest rated guy they had on their board. The over/under on the numbers of complete season that Rodgers plays the rest of his career is probably 1 and right now I think I would take the under.

That is some weird stuff there. Gutekunst has no decision making power, McCarthy calling ll the shots now ? Given that Gute has been a player in several GM interviews, why would he accept a figurehead only role with the Packers. Why do you think McCarthy is calling all the shots ? Why did Murphy say that Gute has roster control ?

As for the Patriots and Garoppolo, I believe that Billichicks plan all along was that Garoppolo was going to be his opening day starter in 2018. But the owner let his fandom get in the way of make a business decision. Because Craft made a decision based on emotion doesn't mean it was a mistake to draft Garoppolo.
Quote

The Pats suffered from lack of a clear plan. If they wanted to hang on to Brady regardless, they should have done things differently. Now they look stupid, and I'm guessing Belichick is not at all happy with either Kraft or Brady. The reason I suggested a future year to prepare for drafting a QB is because you need a clear vision of what is needed and you prepare properly to have the firepower to do what you need to.

Lastly, I wouldn't rule a DLineman out as a early round choice. With a new DC that will employ fewer of the 1 or 2 DL packages and more 3 down lineman, the need for more quality bodies may well be needed. Also, the DL guys that are human wreckingballs tend to have a short lifespan and I wonder if Daniels isn't already breaking down. He had a hard time staying healthy last year.

I don't see that either. Clark is looking an excellent pick. Daniels is a monster, Lowry is still on the upswing (I don't yet know what his ceiling is). M.Adams could be dominating.........or not, that is unknowable at this time. If he pans out well the need for another DL is less than many other positions. Bottom line is you give Adams a year before you spend a high one here. Of course if there is value there above any other position, then you consider it, but it is far more likely that there are several candidates of equal value.........so you pick an equal candidate that is in a position of greater need.
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Online packdaddy

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2018, 04:58:56 PM »
Best Case:  Roquan Smith, Jermaine Edmunds, or Denzel Ward slip to #14.

Worst Case:  We draft Davenport

Offline RT

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2018, 09:14:43 AM »
IMO a new worst case scenerio has raised its head. With the release of Nelson yesterday WR moves up on the list of positions that needs a highend pick used. Calvin Ridley would be the only WR that would be an option at 14 and is a fine player, but like soo many Alabama players is in all likelihood a maxed out player already at 24 years of age. If this is the direction the Packers front office is leaning, it would be a disappointment to me.

Offline Hands

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2018, 08:33:44 AM »
From what I have read, (since I'm not a scout and can only read what scouts may say or write verses draft color guys)there appears to be 18-20 players rated 1st round guys. Add some of the QBs/WRs which teams will reach for, and you get that number up a little bit. Which brings us back to number 14. If the Packers keep that pick and can pick either pass rusher/LB; Davenport/Smith or Edmunds-I think that's the way they go. If they are gone and can get Ward or James-That would be a good alternate solution. If they have to select Vea or Evans, that would be a 3rd alternate they could live with.

Outside those selections, I would say that they should just trade down and try for CB Alexander/Hughes. That is what I would consider worst case. None of the wideouts are considered first round quality, but some will go in the first round the same as some of the QBs.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2018, 08:36:44 AM by Hands »
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Offline Payne85

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2018, 10:37:55 AM »
My kingdom for a real LB before the 4th round.  Won't happen....so I will say CB or OL.

WR Ridley would be a great pick at 14...don't think he will be there.


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Offline dannobanano

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2018, 03:05:08 PM »
I like using the Draft Grades page at NFL.com when I start comparing players.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-grade/dt-by-name-input:e/dt-by-grade-input:1

Leighton Vander Esch (who is my post Combine choice to pick at #14), is ranked higher than Davenport, Ridley, Evans, and the same as Ward.

I'd take him at #14 and not look back unless one of Smith. Edmunds, James fell to #14. Adding Wilkerson makes me less high on using that pick this year on Vea. (but that's just me)

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2018, 01:19:16 AM »
From what I have read, (since I'm not a scout and can only read what scouts may say or write verses draft color guys)there appears to be 18-20 players rated 1st round guys. Add some of the QBs/WRs which teams will reach for, and you get that number up a little bit. Which brings us back to number 14. If the Packers keep that pick and can pick either pass rusher/LB; Davenport/Smith or Edmunds-I think that's the way they go. If they are gone and can get Ward or James-That would be a good alternate solution. If they have to select Vea or Evans, that would be a 3rd alternate they could live with.

Outside those selections, I would say that they should just trade down and try for CB Alexander/Hughes. That is what I would consider worst case. None of the wideouts are considered first round quality, but some will go in the first round the same as some of the QBs.

I posted this on another site, (where it never received any interest). I'll copy that over here because it addresses tiers of players.

I thought I would look at where (for me) the early tiers were. Looking at various sites big boards (GBN, Drafttek, NFL.com, CBS) there is a lot of variation where they think individuals go, so I cobbled one of my own together. Everyone will disagree with the exact ranking, but this is just my approximate idea of where I think the tiers lay - why not try to make your own version. I think Tony Pauline suggested two tiers, ending at pick 9 and 24, I broke it down more than that, but I do have a tier ending at picks 10 and 23, remarkably similar considering I never used that as any kind of guide.

The players within each tier are not in descending order of ability, as each tier should have roughly equivalent players. Some may think (for example) that Vea should be up one tier (I struggled with that one myself), or that Gesicki's name should be in the lowest tier...........whatever.

Tier one (3) Barkley, Nelson, Chubb

Tier two (3) Rosen, Allen, Darnold      This is an odd tier, because QBs always go so high, the top ones have their own tier

Tier three (4) Edmunds, Fitzpatrick, James, Ward

Tier four (13) Vea, Ridley, R.Smith, Guice, Davenport, Landry, J.Jackson, K.Miller, C.Williams, Payne, Mayfield, L.Jackson, J.Alexander

Tier five (19) R.Evans, I.Wynn, R.Jones, M.Hughes, McGlinchey, I.Oliver, C.Sutton, Kirk, D.J.Moore, Chark, Washington, M.Hurst, S.Michel, Goedert, C.Davis, Hernandez, Vander Esch, A.Key, T.Bryan

So does this give any insight (which is the whole point of me doing it). Well IF the tiers are somewhat accurate, the Packers first pick will be in tier 4 (assuming no trade). Ten players have gone in the first three tiers, and tier 4 extends from pick 11 down to pick 23. I don't see the Packers trading up above pick 11, but moving down a few spots looks like a good tactic - they could get a similar level player and get an extra quality pick (move down to #19 and get an extra top third of round 3 pick).

I still advocate the Packers try to use some combination of their later picks  (their comp 4th, one or two of their 5ths, a 6th) to get higher picks in rounds two and three. I think they need to end up with four picks in the first three rounds, as high as they can get, while still keeping a pick left in each round. They also now have the first pick on day 3 (round 4, they should keep hold of that for several reasons).

Finally, if you add all those five tiers together you get 42. The Packers second round pick is at 45. That suggests to me it would be a good tactic to move up a few spots into tier 5 (cheaper than going up in round one), they have the ammuntion to do so (especially if they traded down a few spots in round one), while still keeping one pick in each later round.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2018, 01:23:03 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Online ricky

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2018, 07:25:07 AM »
OK, I'll give my best and worst case scenario in one pick: QB.  Mayfield, Rosen, whoever. But drafting a QB at 14 would speak volumes and cause a huge uproar in Packer Nation.
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Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Best Case/Worst Case for Round 1...
« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2018, 10:34:09 AM »

Leighton Vander Esch (who is my post Combine choice to pick at #14), is ranked higher than Davenport, Ridley, Evans, and the same as Ward.

I'd take him at #14 and not look back unless one of Smith. Edmunds, James fell to #14. Adding Wilkerson makes me less high on using that pick this year on Vea. (but that's just me)

He looks good to me as well danno. I'm just starting to have second thoughts over a pass rusher with the first pick (unless the Packers trade down a few spots). Guys like Davenport, Landry, Key all have their weaknesses and all are thought by several sites to be late first/early 2nd round picks (possibly excepting Davenport). Hubbard may still be a first rounder, but many sites have him in round 2. Key is mid round 2 on several sites. Then there are the edge guys that get less press. Mata'Afa, Nwuso, Carter, Ejiofor are not a huge dropoff from the Landry/Key/Davenport group. That would allow round one to be spent elsewhere.

Suppose the Packers drafted CB Denzel Ward at #14, then in round 2 got the Under-rated Duke Ejiofor or Hercules Mata'Afa or Lorenzo Carter, all good pass rushers. My late round find if they fail there (though I hope the get an edge guy in round 1 or 2) would be Ola Adeniyi, a shortish (6'2"), stout and strong rusher with a great motor and the slippy hips to slide round blockers.

(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"