September 21, 2018, 12:10:56 PM

Author Topic: Packers 1st draft choice  (Read 4493 times)

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Offline phanatic1

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2018, 05:49:55 PM »
I am really struggling to figure out where the Packers are going to go on Thursday. I think James, Ward and Fitzpatrick will be gone and I am not sure about Jackson or Hughes at 14.  Vander Esch, Landry, and Davenport may all be there at 14.  Can someone sell me on one of those guys?? 

Payne or Hurst will be there at 14 and probably Vea - but is a DL truly a need right now? Ridley and Moore will also be there at 14 and WR is a need.  And with consensus there at 14 and the questions surrounding RT - this guy would be a 10 year starter. 

The Packers will be active and won't draft 12 players, but it is important to stay at 14 and 45 for me.  And I love those first picks of rounds 4 and 5. 

Right now, one of Jackson, Vander Esch, or Landry seem to be the consensus.  I am not opposed to Ridley or McGlinchey though. 

Someone convince me on one of those defensive guys. 

Offline dannobanano

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2018, 06:22:00 PM »
I am really struggling to figure out where the Packers are going to go on Thursday. I think James, Ward and Fitzpatrick will be gone and I am not sure about Jackson or Hughes at 14.  Vander Esch, Landry, and Davenport may all be there at 14.  Can someone sell me on one of those guys?? 

Payne or Hurst will be there at 14 and probably Vea - but is a DL truly a need right now? Ridley and Moore will also be there at 14 and WR is a need.  And with consensus there at 14 and the questions surrounding RT - this guy would be a 10 year starter. 

The Packers will be active and won't draft 12 players, but it is important to stay at 14 and 45 for me.  And I love those first picks of rounds 4 and 5. 

Right now, one of Jackson, Vander Esch, or Landry seem to be the consensus.  I am not opposed to Ridley or McGlinchey though. 

Someone convince me on one of those defensive guys.

Enjoy the ride, my friend!

Any one of those three would be a "win" at #14.

Offline phanatic1

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2018, 08:01:02 PM »
Or maybe a better question would have been to convince me that one of Vander Esch, Jackson, or Landry should be the pick over one of the offensive guys like Ridley or McGlinchey. 

It just seems to me that there is depth at OLB and CB and there will be someone available at 45.  But the depth isn't there at OT and WR.  I know a lot of others have studied this more than I, but it seems that WR is a huge need and drop off from the top couple of guys is pretty wide. 


Offline RT

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2018, 06:06:13 AM »
Or maybe a better question would have been to convince me that one of Vander Esch, Jackson, or Landry should be the pick over one of the offensive guys like Ridley or McGlinchey. 

It just seems to me that there is depth at OLB and CB and there will be someone available at 45.  But the depth isn't there at OT and WR.  I know a lot of others have studied this more than I, but it seems that WR is a huge need and drop off from the top couple of guys is pretty wide.

A question for you, what position is the most valuable in the NFL after the QB? What position takes the highest draft capital to find top performers? If the answer is unknown, it is pass rushers. Read a study last week and am sorry I can't find the link now, but in evaluating draft position of pro bowl performers of the past 25 years, the players with the highest average drafted statis was edge rushers. Their average drafting position was 1.6, where as QB was 1.8. No other position was even close, most others over 3.0. What this points out is that it is more uncommon to find top pass rushers throughout the draft then any other position. Most are draft in the first half of the first round. When given a choice, take the guy that excels at getting after the QB.

   

Offline scoremore

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2018, 07:20:29 AM »

Online The GM

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2018, 08:32:18 AM »
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770818-2018-nfl-mock-draft-doug-farrars-final-1st-round-predictions

Wouldn't it be something if the draft fell this way...

You never know what could happen in the draft.  Some of these guys have issues we dont know about and may never know.  Also depends on the needs of the teams in front of you.  When Rodgers was drafted there was a long string of teams who didnt need a QB.  I knew if he got past a certain point (7-10?) he would have a clear shot to GB.  I believe it was Oakland at 23 that concerned me. Al Davis, and a top QB from nearby Cal. Once they picked someone, I knew Rodgers was the best player available, but still wasnt convinced TT would take him.  Favre was still at the beginning of the hem hawing on retirement.  Bottom line: Players can drop for a lot of reasons, guys like Marino, Rodgers, and Randy Moss all dropped because of team fit, draft needs, or misinformation. Stranger things have happened than Chubb falling to 14.  We've all seen it in Green Bay with #12.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 08:34:05 AM by The GM »

Offline RT

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2018, 09:27:30 AM »
I'm going to make a bold statement and it is not made to be controversial. I do realize that I am in about a 1% minority here.

I believe that if the Packers had the 1st pick in the draft and trades were not allowed they would select Harold Landry. I have not always thought along these lines, my first impression of Landry was a negative one. The only game I watched of his in college before we started this draft process was the Notre Dame game last season and that was not good for him. But learning of the sprained ankle that he gutted thru most of last season and reviewing his Jr. season I believe he may in the long run be the best player in this draft.

His Jr. season shows a player thats game strongly looks like Von Miller, not a little like, a lot like. If he had produced similar numbers last season that he had as a Jr. the national press would have him in the conversation for the first overall pick. IMO if he makes it to 14 their is no chance the Packers would be convinced to trade back. The Packers would be very lucky if he should get to them and I believe they feel the same way.

I believe that the decision would be close between him, Chubb and Nelson for first overall. Typically a guard would not enter such a conversation, but I see Nelson as not just a great guard, but a generational player at his position and for that he must be considered. Chubb is a excellent, high effort player and should be a very good pro for many years, just not sure he will ever be a great player.

With all that said, I'm having doubts that he makes it to 14. I think several teams could take him and the media will claim it's a reach, but NFL teams know how good he is. It just isn't of interest of teams to point out something if public perception incorrect.

Online The GM

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2018, 11:44:10 AM »
Good article on Landry with video pieces.  Quick step, great pass rusher.  The question with Landry has alway been at the point of attack.   Can he handle the NFL run game directed right at him?  He'll have a huge impact in the passing game, no doubt.  Good football player, and he had a great combine.    If the Packers go with a edge player at 14, you could have Landry (speed rusher) vs Davenport (tremendous potential upside) decision to make.   Im sure this has all been hashed out at 1265.  Im looking forward to it.

 https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/13/17159106/harold-landry-breakdown-2018-nfl-draft
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 11:52:11 AM by The GM »

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2018, 05:26:29 PM »
Or maybe a better question would have been to convince me that one of Vander Esch, Jackson, or Landry should be the pick over one of the offensive guys like Ridley or McGlinchey. 

It just seems to me that there is depth at OLB and CB and there will be someone available at 45.  But the depth isn't there at OT and WR.  I know a lot of others have studied this more than I, but it seems that WR is a huge need and drop off from the top couple of guys is pretty wide.

I think that is about as wrong as can be. Firstly there are at least 12 WRs that fit in the round 2-3 range, and though they might not be as good as Ridley, Moore Sutton, they are not so far behind, and you can choose from craft, size, speed. There is a TON of talent at WR in those rounds. This year, the drop off is way faster at OLB than either WR or CB.............maybe the same level of dropoff as OT.

OT should be on hold, at least with a very high pick, until Spriggs has proved whether he is the answer to a tackle spot, or not. That will be determined in his third year, becuse if you still cannot cut it after year three, chances are you will BE cut. Besides, there are acute needs at OLB and CB and WR. Drafting an OT high isn't an awful decision, but I don't think it is the best one. For me, the best value in rounds 2 and three is CB, then WR.

So in conclusion, a pass rusher may not be the highest graded pick left at #14 (though it should be close), but the highest potential edge guys go off the board at a frightening speed.
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Offline MO.Pack

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2018, 06:47:25 PM »
I choose Vander Each.  I like the fact he is big enough to play inside our outside.  Still like Landrey a lot and wouldn't mind him either.  If Ward is still there I think he is the choice and hopefully Lorenzo is still there in the second then.

Offline scoremore

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #25 on: April 23, 2018, 07:14:56 PM »
You know the more I think about it the Packers may very well select Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama.  Wish I could switch my vote.  Don't like the CB's not at 14.  We are pretty well set at S.  ILB yes but the two top guys Smith and Edmunds will both be gone.  Think Washington is going to draft Vita Vea. As far as edge the only guy really worthy is Chubb and he'll be gone.  View Landry and Davenport as projections.  They are a bit riskier picks and not as highly rated.  Gute's first draft he'll want to make sure he gets his first pick right.  No bust.  No offensive players are worthy either except Nelson and Barkly they will both be gone.  Nope.  Unless something totally unforseen happens think Gute will make the smart pick and take Payne.  OK no it's not at the top of our needs but it would be the best choice.  BPA baby. 

Offline RT

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2018, 07:39:49 PM »
You know the more I think about it the Packers may very well select Da'Ron Payne DT Alabama.  Wish I could switch my vote.  Don't like the CB's not at 14.  We are pretty well set at S.  ILB yes but the two top guys Smith and Edmunds will both be gone.  Think Washington is going to draft Vita Vea. As far as edge the only guy really worthy is Chubb and he'll be gone.  View Landry and Davenport as projections.  They are a bit riskier picks and not as highly rated.  Gute's first draft he'll want to make sure he gets his first pick right.  No bust.  No offensive players are worthy either except Nelson and Barkly they will both be gone.  Nope.  Unless something totally unforseen happens think Gute will make the smart pick and take Payne.  OK no it's not at the top of our needs but it would be the best choice.  BPA baby.


Payne should be a good young (21yo) talent and if he is the BPA when the Packers pick, put me down as for it. I just don't believe he is on their top 10 first round wishlist. If they pick him in 3 days that is a good call on your part. Soon we will get some answers. 

Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2018, 07:36:01 AM »
I originally chose Davenport but am much higher on Derwin James and Vander Esch now.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2018, 04:21:48 PM »
I originally chose Davenport but am much higher on Derwin James and Vander Esch now.


I'm still on the LVE bandwagon.

Pair him with Matinez in the middle, and those two shut down the run and pass in that part of the field.

It would make defending the boundaries easier.

Drafting another Edge player (like Kemoko Turay) in the 3rd to go along with Gilbert, Biegel, and Odom will help CM3/Perry on the edge.

Online The GM

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Re: Packers 1st draft choice
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2018, 05:06:54 PM »
Do not rule out OT McGlinchey at 14.  Hes the best OT in this draft.  Can you really rely on Bulaga much longer???  Whoever is playing there at RT to start will likely be inexperienced and will get blocking help from Jimmy Graham who blocks as well as my Grandma.  I'm not liking that setup already.   McGlinchey might be a good investment for Rodgers future.  the D needs help bad, but.........