November 19, 2018, 10:10:55 PM

Author Topic: The Vikes have me worried  (Read 3400 times)

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Offline Gregg

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2018, 12:22:07 AM »
How is it a huge step backward?

Cousins has thrown for 4K yards three years in a row. In 2016 he threw for almost 5 K yards.  He has thrown for 25 TDs or more in all three years and never threw more than 13 interceptions.

He is not injury prone like Bradford, not coming off a horrible injury like Bridgewater, and is not bouncing off a career year like Case Keenum.  Keenum never rated in at 90 or above until last year.  Cousins has done it three years in a row.

I think they overpaid for Cousins and should not have guaranteed his contract; but the idea its  a huge step backward is really unwarranted by the stats.

Offline Bignutz

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2018, 10:14:37 PM »
How is it a huge step backward?

Cousins has thrown for 4K yards three years in a row. In 2016 he threw for almost 5 K yards.  He has thrown for 25 TDs or more in all three years and never threw more than 13 interceptions.

He is not injury prone like Bradford, not coming off a horrible injury like Bridgewater, and is not bouncing off a career year like Case Keenum.  Keenum never rated in at 90 or above until last year.  Cousins has done it three years in a row.

I think they overpaid for Cousins and should not have guaranteed his contract; but the idea its  a huge step backward is really unwarranted by the stats.


Not disagreeing with you but if Cousins is the second coming why did the Redskins let him get away?

Offline Gregg

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2018, 06:18:29 AM »
Because, as I said, they overpaid for him.  The Redskins did not want to do that.

And then the Vikes doubled down by guaranteeing the contract.

But that is the NFL.  Its a QB crazy league.

If it had been me, I would not have done it.  I probably would have kept Bridgewater and then signed McCarron. And I would have drafted a QB.

The Vikes have to win now.  Because Cousins'  contract is going to essentially force them to release at least a couple of good players from their defense in a year or two.

Offline ricky

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2018, 10:17:54 AM »
The Vikes have to win now.  Because Cousins'  contract is going to essentially force them to release at least a couple of good players from their defense in a year or two.

Exactly. And the Vikes only advanced on an incredibly lucky set of circumstances against the Saints. The Rams at least have the excuse of having a QB still playing under his rookie contract. The Vikes are all in this year. And most times, that leads to disappointment. So, short term, they are a concern, but certainly not insurmountable. Long term, as you noted, they are stealing from Peter to pay Paul. And that is just nuts.
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Offline dannobanano

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2018, 04:30:14 PM »
Well, after being a bridemaid four times, they most likely don't give 2 hoots what they long term cost is if they can at least, one time, be the bride.

After all, that Lombardi case of theirs looks pretty lonely!


Offline raptorman

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2018, 04:59:44 PM »
Because, as I said, they overpaid for him.  The Redskins did not want to do that.

And then the Vikes doubled down by guaranteeing the contract.

But that is the NFL.  Its a QB crazy league.

If it had been me, I would not have done it.  I probably would have kept Bridgewater and then signed McCarron. And I would have drafted a QB.

The Vikes have to win now.  Because Cousins'  contract is going to essentially force them to release at least a couple of good players from their defense in a year or two.
Vikes overpaid him.  Kinda like when they overpaid Everson Griffin a few years back. I'm sure that thread is here somewhere. 

FWIW.   The Redskins paid Cousins $44 million the last two years.  To put that in perspective, Rodgers "made" $45 million the last two years.  And then they turned around and paid Smith $94 million with $71 million guaranteed for 4 years. 
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Offline Gregg

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2018, 11:34:15 AM »
The thing is, the Cousins and Ryan contracts are really getting out of this world.

This is why I think you have to get back to drafting a QB every other year.  Maybe even every year.

You will hit on some of them.  And then you have insurance against a guy pulling a Cousins on you.

The best thing in the NFL is to have a rookie or second year QB who can start.


Offline ricky

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2018, 03:43:46 PM »
The thing is, the Cousins and Ryan contracts are really getting out of this world.

This is why I think you have to get back to drafting a QB every other year.  Maybe even every year.

You will hit on some of them.  And then you have insurance against a guy pulling a Cousins on you.

The best thing in the NFL is to have a rookie or second year QB who can start.

Cleveland's QB carousel since 1999: https://www.si.com/nfl/cleveland-browns-quarterbacks-timeline

There is no guarantee that drafting a lot of guys at a position guarantees you find starters. Look at the Packers and DB's as another example. They are still drafting at the position despite throwing a lot of draft picks at the positions (CB and S). The draft is always a crapshoot. The idea of having a game ready backup is the ideal. But in today's reality, you're lucky to have a solid starter, much less a franchise QB.

And exactly what did Cousins "pull"? He wanted to sign with Washington, but they decided to repeatedly tag him, before opting for Smith and giving him a big contract.To me, Cousins is a "stats QB" but not a proven winner. And the big contracts? They are a reflection of the lack of starting caliber QB's in the league, in spite of all those draft picks that have been spent on the position.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 03:46:25 PM by ricky »
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Offline Gregg

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2018, 11:21:44 PM »
Ricky,

Many of those Browns QB's were not drafted.  I would say half or more were trades or free agents.

Second, why not look at what Ron Wolf did.  I mean his record in QB evaluation speaks for itself.

What Cousins did was to demand an unprecedented contract for the NFL. One that the Skins would not give in to.

 Why Minny gave it to him is puzzling to me.  I already said what I would have done, for varying reasons.  One of them being that Minny is a team based upon defense.  I think this will hurt them there, not this year but in the future.  Secondly, their very promising rookie RB is returning.  Third, they had three QBs already, they did not have to get rid of all of them.

But that is what the NFL has become these days.  Everyone wants their version of Tom Brady.  I guess they look back and say, "Hmm, BB was not that hot in Cleveland was he?  He goes to New England, has Bledsoe and Brady and turns into a genius.."

Offline Twain

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2018, 09:35:28 AM »
Ricky,

Many of those Browns QB's were not drafted.  I would say half or more were trades or free agents.

Second, why not look at what Ron Wolf did.  I mean his record in QB evaluation speaks for itself.

What Cousins did was to demand an unprecedented contract for the NFL. One that the Skins would not give in to.

 Why Minny gave it to him is puzzling to me.  I already said what I would have done, for varying reasons.  One of them being that Minny is a team based upon defense.  I think this will hurt them there, not this year but in the future.  Secondly, their very promising rookie RB is returning.  Third, they had three QBs already, they did not have to get rid of all of them.

But that is what the NFL has become these days.  Everyone wants their version of Tom Brady.  I guess they look back and say, "Hmm, BB was not that hot in Cleveland was he?  He goes to New England, has Bledsoe and Brady and turns into a genius.."

It seems to me Ron Wolf's success with the QB position was due to his personal ability to evaluate QB talent.  Some guys got it, some guys don't.

I think your point about the Vikings is well taken, but I would point out that they are built on defense because they didn't have success at QB.  It seems to me that they are in transition, and with the NFL being a QB driven league, they are moving to a more offensive mindset with a very good receiver corps, possibly a stud at back in Dalvin Cook, - depending of course on how well he recovers, and a steadily improving offensive line and a top tight end.

Cousins contract really isn't unprecedented- look at what Garoppolo got in San Francisco- for a guy with limited starts.  Cousins has the 3 consecutive 4000 yds seasons that Garoppolo hasn't.  The thing that is odd is the fact they cut it off after 3 years- it gives them a definite out after 3 without the risk of dead money.  Garoppolo will still have 15 million of dead money at that point.

Cousins gets disrespected because "he didn't win" in Washington, but really, who is successful in Washington.  Everything Daniel Snyder does with that team fails.

You are definitely right that the QB contracts are getting oppressive, and it hurts teams because some guys aren't ever going to be good enough to put the team on their back and get you through a playoff run.  I think the Vikings had to make this move though- I think Cousins is better than Keenum, and the other two they had didn't have the legs under them to play. On top of that, none were under contract this year, and they apparently couldn't toll Bridgewater's contract.  I pointed out last season that they were going to have this problem in the off season.  The Vikings are built to win now, and having a guy that has shown he can put up the yards through the air multiple seasons makes them a very formidable offense and very complete team this year.  They are all in.

Personally, I don't know what the Redskins were thinking.  They should have signed Cousins long term 2 years ago- he showed he could play, he would have cost a lot less, and they would have had him a lot longer than Alex Smith.  Daniel Snyder is a bad owner, imo, and that has helped the Vikings.
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Offline ricky

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #25 on: June 16, 2018, 01:54:04 PM »
Ricky,

Many of those Browns QB's were not drafted.  I would say half or more were trades or free agents.

Second, why not look at what Ron Wolf did.  I mean his record in QB evaluation speaks for itself.

Wold was a great evaluator of QB talent. His trade for Favre proved it. The additions of Brunell and others who went on to be starters elsewhere shows it. But that is the rare exception, not the rule. For every Luck or Wentz, there are many, many Bollers and Griffins and Vince  Youngs. This is too similar to the "trade Rodgers for a boatload of draft picks and draft his replacement" talk for my taste.

What Cousins did was to demand an unprecedented contract for the NFL. One that the Skins would not give in to.

Was Cousins indeed asking for too much? Did Washington bargain in good faith, or were they just depending on the franchise tag to keep him around, and hope something would turn up? So they sign Smith and give him $40 million this year. 34 years old, a lateral move at best as far as talent, and six years older than Cousins. OF course, this is the Danny Snyder (Call me MISTER Snyder) Washington.

 Why Minny gave it to him is puzzling to me.  I already said what I would have done, for varying reasons.  One of them being that Minny is a team based upon defense.  I think this will hurt them there, not this year but in the future.  Secondly, their very promising rookie RB is returning.  Third, they had three QBs already, they did not have to get rid of all of them.

Why give it to him? They are desperate to win now. They are all in for this year, and maybe next year. Because their team is loaded with young players who are going to be hitting the end of their rookie contracts in the next year or two. And they know their window is now or never.

But that is what the NFL has become these days.  Everyone wants their version of Tom Brady.  I guess they look back and say, "Hmm, BB was not that hot in Cleveland was he?  He goes to New England, has Bledsoe and Brady and turns into a genius.."

The thing is, Belichick also posted a 10-6 season with Matt Cassell, when Brady was IR'ed with a knee injury in the first game of the season. And the Patriots do it with constant roster turnover, letting big contract players go very often, and still win.
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Offline raptorman

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #26 on: June 16, 2018, 07:41:44 PM »
Ricky,

Many of those Browns QB's were not drafted.  I would say half or more were trades or free agents.

Second, why not look at what Ron Wolf did.  I mean his record in QB evaluation speaks for itself.

Wold was a great evaluator of QB talent. His trade for Favre proved it. The additions of Brunell and others who went on to be starters elsewhere shows it. But that is the rare exception, not the rule. For every Luck or Wentz, there are many, many Bollers and Griffins and Vince  Youngs. This is too similar to the "trade Rodgers for a boatload of draft picks and draft his replacement" talk for my taste.

What Cousins did was to demand an unprecedented contract for the NFL. One that the Skins would not give in to.

Was Cousins indeed asking for too much? Did Washington bargain in good faith, or were they just depending on the franchise tag to keep him around, and hope something would turn up? So they sign Smith and give him $40 million this year. 34 years old, a lateral move at best as far as talent, and six years older than Cousins. OF course, this is the Danny Snyder (Call me MISTER Snyder) Washington.

 Why Minny gave it to him is puzzling to me.  I already said what I would have done, for varying reasons.  One of them being that Minny is a team based upon defense.  I think this will hurt them there, not this year but in the future.  Secondly, their very promising rookie RB is returning.  Third, they had three QBs already, they did not have to get rid of all of them.

Why give it to him? They are desperate to win now. They are all in for this year, and maybe next year. Because their team is loaded with young players who are going to be hitting the end of their rookie contracts in the next year or two. And they know their window is now or never.

But that is what the NFL has become these days.  Everyone wants their version of Tom Brady.  I guess they look back and say, "Hmm, BB was not that hot in Cleveland was he?  He goes to New England, has Bledsoe and Brady and turns into a genius.."

The thing is, Belichick also posted a 10-6 season with Matt Cassell, when Brady was IR'ed with a knee injury in the first game of the season. And the Patriots do it with constant roster turnover, letting big contract players go very often, and still win.

You guys will never learn will you.  The Patriots do it with defense.  Not Brady.  Put Brady on any other team except Pittsburgh, and he may have one ring.  Pats defense has averaged 18.7 points per game since Belicheat took over.  The only other team that comes close is Pittsburgh at 18.2 points per game over the same time period.   To put that in perspective, over that time period the Packers have averaged 21.1 points per game on defense.  In their last Super Bowl year, the Packs defense gave up 15 points per game.  And in 1996 when they won with Farve, 13.1 points per game on defense.   
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Offline Twain

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #27 on: June 17, 2018, 07:08:48 AM »

You guys will never learn will you.  The Patriots do it with defense.  Not Brady.  Put Brady on any other team except Pittsburgh, and he may have one ring.  Pats defense has averaged 18.7 points per game since Belicheat took over.  The only other team that comes close is Pittsburgh at 18.2 points per game over the same time period.   To put that in perspective, over that time period the Packers have averaged 21.1 points per game on defense.  In their last Super Bowl year, the Packs defense gave up 15 points per game.  And in 1996 when they won with Farve, 13.1 points per game on defense.   

It is the part that almost no one admits these days- the quarterback can't win alone.  It is a team game.

That's why your Vikings are better positioned this year than any Packer fan wants to admit.
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Offline ricky

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #28 on: June 17, 2018, 09:04:22 AM »
You guys will never learn will you.  The Patriots do it with defense.  Not Brady.  Put Brady on any other team except Pittsburgh, and he may have one ring.  Pats defense has averaged 18.7 points per game since Belicheat took over.  The only other team that comes close is Pittsburgh at 18.2 points per game over the same time period.   To put that in perspective, over that time period the Packers have averaged 21.1 points per game on defense.  In their last Super Bowl year, the Packs defense gave up 15 points per game.  And in 1996 when they won with Farve, 13.1 points per game on defense.   

Last year the Patriots ranked 29th in team defense. And made the SB. And lost because they benched Butler for unknown reasons, and a defensive play by the Eagles. I tried finding the defensive rankings for every SB year, but apparently will have to go year-by-year to amass that stat. I'll get back to you later.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

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Offline RT

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #29 on: June 17, 2018, 09:26:14 AM »
You guys will never learn will you.  The Patriots do it with defense.  Not Brady.  Put Brady on any other team except Pittsburgh, and he may have one ring.  Pats defense has averaged 18.7 points per game since Belicheat took over.  The only other team that comes close is Pittsburgh at 18.2 points per game over the same time period.   To put that in perspective, over that time period the Packers have averaged 21.1 points per game on defense.  In their last Super Bowl year, the Packs defense gave up 15 points per game.  And in 1996 when they won with Farve, 13.1 points per game on defense.   

Last year the Patriots ranked 29th in team defense. And made the SB. And lost because they benched Butler for unknown reasons, and a defensive play by the Eagles. I tried finding the defensive rankings for every SB year, but apparently will have to go year-by-year to amass that stat. I'll get back to you later.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

The key stat here is scoring defense. I have done this exercise many times in the past and I think you will find it is a rare exception to have a team in the SB that is not top 5 in scoring defense. Last year the Eagles were 4th at 18.4 and the Patriots were 5th at 18.5. The last time the Packers were in the SB they were 2nd in scoring defense at 15 per game and the Steelers were 1st at 14.5. At season end, look and see who are the top 5 scoring defenses are in the NFL and you will have the list of the real contenders to win it all.