December 16, 2018, 12:25:59 AM

Author Topic: The Vikes have me worried  (Read 3630 times)

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Offline ricky

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2018, 10:54:44 AM »
Last year the Patriots ranked 29th in team defense. And made the SB. And lost because they benched Butler for unknown reasons, and a defensive play by the Eagles. I tried finding the defensive rankings for every SB year, but apparently will have to go year-by-year to amass that stat. I'll get back to you later.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

The key stat here is scoring defense. I have done this exercise many times in the past and I think you will find it is a rare exception to have a team in the SB that is not top 5 in scoring defense. Last year the Eagles were 4th at 18.4 and the Patriots were 5th at 18.5. The last time the Packers were in the SB they were 2nd in scoring defense at 15 per game and the Steelers were 1st at 14.5. At season end, look and see who are the top 5 scoring defenses are in the NFL and you will have the list of the real contenders to win it all.
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Where did you get those stats? Because I found very different rankings for team scoring defense. Just curious.
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Offline RT

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2018, 06:22:12 PM »
Last year the Patriots ranked 29th in team defense. And made the SB. And lost because they benched Butler for unknown reasons, and a defensive play by the Eagles. I tried finding the defensive rankings for every SB year, but apparently will have to go year-by-year to amass that stat. I'll get back to you later.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

The key stat here is scoring defense. I have done this exercise many times in the past and I think you will find it is a rare exception to have a team in the SB that is not top 5 in scoring defense. Last year the Eagles were 4th at 18.4 and the Patriots were 5th at 18.5. The last time the Packers were in the SB they were 2nd in scoring defense at 15 per game and the Steelers were 1st at 14.5. At season end, look and see who are the top 5 scoring defenses are in the NFL and you will have the list of the real contenders to win it all.

Where did you get those stats? Because I found very different rankings for team scoring defense. Just curious.
[/quote]

I used the link that you provided ricky.

Offline RT

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2018, 06:50:57 PM »
Super Bowl winners and their scoring defense ranking.

2018 Philadelphia Eagles - 4th /18.4
2017 New England Patriots - 1st / 15.6
2016 Denver Broncos -  4th /18.5
2015 New England Patriots - 8th / 19.6     *Seahawks were 1st that year at 15.9 and was the main reason I thought they would win that game.
2014 Seattle Seahawks - 1st / 14.4

Going back to the Packers in 1997, they were the number one ranked defense that year. The Ravens teams, the Giants teams, the Buccaneers team and most of the Patriots teams all had top defenses the years they won Super Bowls.

Shhh don't tell anyone, but the facts suggest that a top defense is more important than a top QB. 

Offline raptorman

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #33 on: June 17, 2018, 08:00:25 PM »
Last year the Patriots ranked 29th in team defense. And made the SB. And lost because they benched Butler for unknown reasons, and a defensive play by the Eagles. I tried finding the defensive rankings for every SB year, but apparently will have to go year-by-year to amass that stat. I'll get back to you later.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

The key stat here is scoring defense. I have done this exercise many times in the past and I think you will find it is a rare exception to have a team in the SB that is not top 5 in scoring defense. Last year the Eagles were 4th at 18.4 and the Patriots were 5th at 18.5. The last time the Packers were in the SB they were 2nd in scoring defense at 15 per game and the Steelers were 1st at 14.5. At season end, look and see who are the top 5 scoring defenses are in the NFL and you will have the list of the real contenders to win it all.

Where did you get those stats? Because I found very different rankings for team scoring defense. Just curious.

Yards per game doesn't matter.  Passer rating doesn't matter.  Passing yardage doesn't matter.  What matters is point per game given up on defense.  Now, I'm not saying this will guarantee a win. But in the history of the Super Bowl, the winner is in the top 8 of Points per game on defense something like 90% of the time.   The average for the winner is 4th in points per game on defense.   FWIW, the Packers Super Bowl victories, their defense's were 1, 3, 1, and 2 in points per game on defense.    Only 5 teams outside the top 10 in points per game during the season have ever won a Super Bowl.  The Giants did it twice with Manning, the Colts once, Oakland, and San Francisco.
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Online marklawrence

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2018, 10:43:09 PM »
Shhh don't tell anyone, but the facts suggest that a top defense is more important than a top QB.

Trent Dilfer and Eli Manning would be testimony to that.
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Offline PackerJoe

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #35 on: August 07, 2018, 03:18:42 PM »
Do you know how many times Cousins led the Redskins to the Playoffs?  Once!  The games I saw him play he was a turnover machine when teams put pressure on him.  Now granted they didn't have the best receivers in the NFL on his team, I just don't see him better than Nick Foles, Carson Wentz, etc.  We shall see, I for one am not worried about Cousins.  Given the fact they have little talent on the OL, it gives me more optimism about the Packers.

Online marklawrence

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #36 on: August 07, 2018, 04:58:07 PM »
I think the queens have better talent than we do. I will count us lucky to split with them. Especially since we see them at home in week 2, and they traditionally start fast.

I think our chances of beating the queens at lambeau in january are decent. Our chances of beating them in MN in january are poor.
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Offline Gregg

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #37 on: August 09, 2018, 11:02:59 PM »
Easton is out for the year.

Efflein is on the PUP.

Offline raptorman

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #38 on: August 10, 2018, 12:40:18 PM »
Do you know how many times Cousins led the Redskins to the Playoffs?  Once!  The games I saw him play he was a turnover machine when teams put pressure on him.  Now granted they didn't have the best receivers in the NFL on his team, I just don't see him better than Nick Foles, Carson Wentz, etc.  We shall see, I for one am not worried about Cousins.  Given the fact they have little talent on the OL, it gives me more optimism about the Packers.
The Skins defense over Cousins time there gave up an average of 24 points per game. Show me any QB that brought his team to the playoffs with his defense giving up that many points. It does't happen.
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Online marklawrence

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #39 on: August 10, 2018, 02:40:32 PM »
The Skins defense over Cousins time there gave up an average of 24 points per game. Show me any QB that brought his team to the playoffs with his defense giving up that many points. It does't happen.

^this.

It's a mistake to be over-confident against the queens. This is a very good team. In fact, right now I would rank the NFC:
1. Philly
2. Rams
3. Queens
4. Packers
5. Saints

And I might have the Packers and Saints reversed.

Injuries can change that - we're experts on that point.

Law Vegas says I have the Queens and Rams reversed.

New England Patriots   7/1
Philadelphia Eagles   10/1
Minnesota Vikings     10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers   10/1
Los Angeles Rams      12/1
Green Bay Packers     14/1
Atlanta Falcons       16/1
New Orleans Saints    16/1
Houston Texans        20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars  20/1
Los Angeles Chargers  20/1
San Francisco 49ers   20/1

« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 02:43:17 PM by marklawrence »
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Offline Twain

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #40 on: August 11, 2018, 06:15:03 AM »
The Skins defense over Cousins time there gave up an average of 24 points per game. Show me any QB that brought his team to the playoffs with his defense giving up that many points. It does't happen.

I agree, the Vikings have a loaded team, and Cousins is an under rated QB, but the dickhead gene in me causes me to say the following:

In 2013, the Packers were a playoff team after losing Aaron Rodgers for a significant part of the year and giving up an average of 26.8 points per game. 

Surprisingly, as I look into it more, Peyton Manning lead the Denver Broncos to the #1 seed with a defense that gave up 24.9 points per game in 2013 and played in the Super Bowl.  The Packers, Falcons and Chiefs were all at that level in 2016.  As you can see, two Super Bowl teams have been at that level in the last 5 years.

Prior to that, 2011, the Giants, Broncos, and Lions were all at that level, with the Giants again making the Super Bowl.

It does happen.   8)
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 06:43:56 AM by Twain »
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Offline raptorman

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #41 on: August 11, 2018, 07:29:52 PM »
The Skins defense over Cousins time there gave up an average of 24 points per game. Show me any QB that brought his team to the playoffs with his defense giving up that many points. It does't happen.

I agree, the Vikings have a loaded team, and Cousins is an under rated QB, but the dickhead gene in me causes me to say the following:

In 2013, the Packers were a playoff team after losing Aaron Rodgers for a significant part of the year and giving up an average of 26.8 points per game. 

Surprisingly, as I look into it more, Peyton Manning lead the Denver Broncos to the #1 seed with a defense that gave up 24.9 points per game in 2013 and played in the Super Bowl.  The Packers, Falcons and Chiefs were all at that level in 2016.  As you can see, two Super Bowl teams have been at that level in the last 5 years.

Prior to that, 2011, the Giants, Broncos, and Lions were all at that level, with the Giants again making the Super Bowl.

It does happen.   8)
Chiefs were at 19.4 ppg in 2016.   And Atlanta lost to who in the Super Bowl? The Pats with the number one scoring defense.   The Giants are the outlier here. Once they made it to the playoffs they held the other teams to 14 ppg or less.  Not sure how they did it. 
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Offline Twain

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #42 on: August 12, 2018, 05:54:45 AM »
Chiefs were at 19.4 ppg in 2016.   And Atlanta lost to who in the Super Bowl? The Pats with the number one scoring defense.   The Giants are the outlier here. Once they made it to the playoffs they held the other teams to 14 ppg or less.  Not sure how they did it.

Aw, come on raptorman, I give you my error on the chiefs, but don't deflect from the point.  QB's can get their teams to the playoffs when the defense gives up more than 24 points per game on the season, as 3 superbowl teams this decade have shown.

« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 05:55:36 AM by Twain »
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Offline raptorman

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #43 on: August 12, 2018, 12:00:35 PM »
Chiefs were at 19.4 ppg in 2016.   And Atlanta lost to who in the Super Bowl? The Pats with the number one scoring defense.   The Giants are the outlier here. Once they made it to the playoffs they held the other teams to 14 ppg or less.  Not sure how they did it.

Aw, come on raptorman, I give you my error on the chiefs, but don't deflect from the point.  QB's can get their teams to the playoffs when the defense gives up more than 24 points per game on the season, as 3 superbowl teams this decade have shown.
3 out of how many?   The number of top defenses in both the winners and losers of the Super Bowl far outweigh those that are out of the top 10.
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Offline Twain

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Re: The Vikes have me worried
« Reply #44 on: August 13, 2018, 03:46:33 AM »
Chiefs were at 19.4 ppg in 2016.   And Atlanta lost to who in the Super Bowl? The Pats with the number one scoring defense.   The Giants are the outlier here. Once they made it to the playoffs they held the other teams to 14 ppg or less.  Not sure how they did it.

Aw, come on raptorman, I give you my error on the chiefs, but don't deflect from the point.  QB's can get their teams to the playoffs when the defense gives up more than 24 points per game on the season, as 3 superbowl teams this decade have shown.
3 out of how many?   The number of top defenses in both the winners and losers of the Super Bowl far outweigh those that are out of the top 10.

Geez raptorman, you used to be a better poster than this.  The question wasn't whether a good defense makes for a better team.
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