October 15, 2018, 04:37:13 PM

Author Topic: Draft Trade?  (Read 1025 times)

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Offline BrightEyes

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Draft Trade?
« on: April 03, 2018, 07:29:01 PM »
Do the Packers stay at 14 and exercise that pick?  Do they trade up?  Do they trade back?

I personally believe they will stay at 14.  I hope they don't trade up.  I believe they have too many holes to fill to lose draft picks in order to get a slightly better player.  Other than Chubb I don't think there is anyone I would move up for. 

Trading down offers some other options.  Trading down 2 to 5 spots would add enough ammo to move back up into the the late 1st or early 2nd round.  They should still be able to get Esch, Davenport, or Landry with the 16th, 17th, or 19th pick.  With a pick between 28 and 36, they would have more options for the CB that they want. 

Here are some trade options. 

Swap the 14th and 133rd pick for the 16th and 83rd picks with Baltimore.  Trade value has this being about plus 36 for the Packers. 

Swap the 14th pick for the 17th and 84rd picks with the Los Angeles Chargers.  Trade value has this being about plus 20 for the Packers.

I'm skipping Seattle because they don't have any draft capitol.  This would need to be a trade for a player.

Swap the 14th pick for the 19th, 81st and 116th picks with Dallas.  Trade value has this being about plus 22 for the Packers.

Swap the 14th, 101st, and 133rd pick for the 19th and 50th picks with Dallas.  Trade value has this being about plus 40 for the Packers.

Swap the 14th pick for the 19th, 81st, 137th and 208th picks with Dallas.  Trade value has this being about plus 5 for the Packers.  It also give the packers back to back picks at 136 and 137 as well as 207 and 208.

Of course they need a willing partner to do any trade.  Hopefully a partner with a strong desire to move up so that they overpay.

Offline scoremore

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2018, 07:48:04 PM »
Unless a QB slips trade back is unlikely.  Don't think Gute will trade up either.   Some rumor that AZ will take a QB and someone might want to jump in front of them.  One can always hope.  Would be sweet to go back a few spots and pick up a 3rd.  Think it is most likely we end up picking at 14.  Could see Gute trading up in Rd 2 possibly.  Try to land Edge and then get the CB in Rd 2.  Agree we have too many holes to fill.  Would rather just let the draft fall to us and take the picks that are on the board.  Know we have some glaring needs but a BPA approach is the best policy.  We know what the needs are but taking the best available player is always the smart course of action.  Supplement remaining holes with FA.  QB, K, P are about the only positions that couldn't use an upgrade.  If OL and TE for example were the first 2 picks it would be a shocker.  However if they are the highest rated players on the Packers board they should take them. 

Offline Shinesman

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 10:18:51 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if they trade up twice in this draft. They have more picks than they need or that could make the team anyway. Why not get a couple guys you are high on.
"Tradition! Just because we've always done it that way, doesn't mean that it isn't incredibly stupid."

Offline RT

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2018, 08:36:00 AM »
Unless a QB slips trade back is unlikely.  Don't think Gute will trade up either.   Some rumor that AZ will take a QB and someone might want to jump in front of them.  One can always hope.  Would be sweet to go back a few spots and pick up a 3rd.  Think it is most likely we end up picking at 14.  Could see Gute trading up in Rd 2 possibly.  Try to land Edge and then get the CB in Rd 2.  Agree we have too many holes to fill.  Would rather just let the draft fall to us and take the picks that are on the board.  Know we have some glaring needs but a BPA approach is the best policy.  We know what the needs are but taking the best available player is always the smart course of action.  Supplement remaining holes with FA.  QB, K, P are about the only positions that couldn't use an upgrade.  If OL and TE for example were the first 2 picks it would be a shocker.  However if they are the highest rated players on the Packers board they should take them.

The voice of reason. You are right on the mark with your post scoremore.

They will go BPA and this year it will probably fall on the defensive side of the ball and people will reason that they drafted for their biggest need. Last year their was much talk about Mixon or Lamp as the first pick with RB and OL being needs, but RB wasn't address until the 4th round and the OL until the 6th. With their 2nd and 3rd picks they draft a safety and a DT, which were 2 of the stronger position groups going into the draft. No position would be a surprise to me, like every team, this team can always use one more quality player at any position. Quality over need everytime.

Offline RT

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2018, 08:44:56 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if they trade up twice in this draft. They have more picks than they need or that could make the team anyway. Why not get a couple guys you are high on.

Not sure why you think they have more picks than they need. Every year they have 13-18 new players on the new 53 man roster. Looking at this current roster, their seems like about 35 locks (give or take 1-2 depending each persons opinion). That math says they will need 13-18 again this year.

Offline Shinesman

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2018, 12:43:43 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if they trade up twice in this draft. They have more picks than they need or that could make the team anyway. Why not get a couple guys you are high on.

Not sure why you think they have more picks than they need. Every year they have 13-18 new players on the new 53 man roster. Looking at this current roster, their seems like about 35 locks (give or take 1-2 depending each persons opinion). That math says they will need 13-18 again this year.

And how many of those fresh names were UDFA? Usually quite a few. I think they still dabble large in the UDFA market. But getting 7 players in a draft is good, 8-10 is quite high, and some won't make the cut or get to the PS, and they have over ten picks right now? Why not trade up a few spots to ensure you get a guys you like. Still walk away with 6-8 drafted players, and you have a PS full of guys you previously drafted or signed.
"Tradition! Just because we've always done it that way, doesn't mean that it isn't incredibly stupid."

Offline RT

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2018, 07:28:40 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if they trade up twice in this draft. They have more picks than they need or that could make the team anyway. Why not get a couple guys you are high on.

Not sure why you think they have more picks than they need. Every year they have 13-18 new players on the new 53 man roster. Looking at this current roster, their seems like about 35 locks (give or take 1-2 depending each persons opinion). That math says they will need 13-18 again this year.

And how many of those fresh names were UDFA? Usually quite a few. I think they still dabble large in the UDFA market. But getting 7 players in a draft is good, 8-10 is quite high, and some won't make the cut or get to the PS, and they have over ten picks right now? Why not trade up a few spots to ensure you get a guys you like. Still walk away with 6-8 drafted players, and you have a PS full of guys you previously drafted or signed.

To answer your first question of how many UDFA's on the opening day 53,
2017 (2) Lenzy Pipkins, Justin Vogel
2016 (3) Josh Hawkins, Marwin Evans, Kentrell Brice
2015 (2) Alonzo Harris, Ladarius Gunter
2014 (2) Mike Pennel, Jayrone Elliott
2013 (2) Andy Mulumba, Chris Banjo

I would expect the Packers will continue to turn every UDFA stone over that they get a chance to and the reward will be a few unknown players cracking the opening day 53.

The Packers in moving towards building their 90 man roster currently have 65 players on contracts counting the 9 ERFA's that haven't officially signed on the dotted line. If 12 draft choices are added, it puts them at 77 and 13 spots remain open for UDFA signing. The Packers normally are in that 15-20 range and still may well end up with that number ( the Packers often release a few of the street FA's before each years draft).

I follow your theory, but you have rationalized that the picks that are traded to moveup will be the players that were the misses and are cut. A team may well still draft the misses and trade the picks that resulted in the hits. You are doing the samething many fans do, you look back at the players cut and conclude that they should of used that pick to moveup somewhere for a better player. The first step is to except that their is going to be failure, it is just a numbers game. Because a team only drafts 6 players, doesn't mean percentage wise they are going to be more successful. Historical data tells us that if a team drafts 6 players that 5 will probably make the team the first year, 3 or 4 the second year and in a good draft 2 will get second contracts. If 12 players are drafted their is going to be a higher volume of failure and success, the percentages don't change.

The objective is to have as many successes as possible without being paralyzed by the fear of failure. The draft is not an exact science and there is always going to be misses from the 1st overall pick to Mr. Irrelevant, but it is what is so fascinating about the whole process for fans. Also what drives them crazy.

Agree or disagree, IMO more is better.

     
 

Offline Hands

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2018, 06:36:29 AM »
According to a couple of scouts and front office guys...there are less than 20 guys ranked in the first round. If 4 QBs are chosen before Green Bay's pick, (most of the QBs are rated late first round guys) then they will be getting the equivlent of a top ten pick. So why would Green Bay move unless they get one heck of a deal.
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Offline RT

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2018, 07:09:26 AM »
According to a couple of scouts and front office guys...there are less than 20 guys ranked in the first round. If 4 QBs are chosen before Green Bay's pick, (most of the QBs are rated late first round guys) then they will be getting the equivlent of a top ten pick. So why would Green Bay move unless they get one heck of a deal.

This is from an article from espn where the Ravens assistant GM talks about feeling they were in the sweet spot in the draft, my guess is that the Packers feel the same way.

 While Newsome believes the Ravens could surprise, assistant general manager Eric DeCosta believes he has an excellent feel for how the top half of the first round will unfold.

"I think I can predict the first 16 picks, at least the players that go in the top 16," DeCosta said. "Now, once you get out of the top 15, it's anybody's guess."

As Newsome indicated, the Ravens aren't sold on sticking at No. 16. Baltimore was in the same spot in last year's draft, and the Ravens attempted to trade up and back.

"We're right there in that sweet spot at 16, where we might get a great player or we might get a lot of action of other teams wanting to come up," DeCosta said. "We may have the chance to go up and get a great player. There are all these different combinations. I kind of feel like I know who the players are going to be, but I'm not sure like what our involvement is going to be in that because we're right there on that cusp of sort of being in that fertile area right at the top or being in that really nice area back where there are going to be a lot of good players available."

Offline PackerJoe

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Re: Draft Trade?
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2018, 06:08:18 AM »
Move ups Roquan smith TB,SF. RD 1

MArk Aandrews TE 3rd rd,  We'll have to give a couple of picks this year and a 3rd next year.  DOn't think we fixed the TE situation with the FA signing.  We have little or nothing behind him.  IF he has a season ending injury ala Rogers, Lance Kendrick at TE, be serious!