May 24, 2018, 01:17:39 AM

Author Topic: April 27 Day 2 Discussions  (Read 2027 times)

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Offline RT

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #15 on: April 27, 2018, 07:44:47 AM »
I don't really see how we have the ammo to trade up into the 3rd. If we want a 3rd round pick, we're going to have to trade back to about the 25th pick in the 2nd and throw in a 5th. I dunno about trading back in the 2nd, but we still have 12 picks this year and that's too many. We need to lose some 5ths and 7ths and get another 4th. Or be prepared to cut about 6 low draft picks at the end of TC and hope like 4 of them make it to the PS.

Of course we have a good history of getting very decent OL in the 4th and 5th. Bulaga should be very worried.

A trade of lower picks to get back into the mid-to low third round is very do-able, if complicated, but what if the Packers gave up their 2019 pick (theirs or the Saints) for the Browns pick #33 or #35. That might seem good value to the Browns, with as many high picks as they have this year. Pick #33 or #35  AND the Packers own pick at #45 could really help this team. Think of getting two guys from Connor Williams, Will Hernandez, Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, Lorenzo Carter, Harold Landry.

The best value might still be to keep that 2019 pick, but it makes for interesting calculations............lots of options.

All thing the Packers are weighing this morning I'm sure. Just depends on the value they have on each player. Austin Corbett would be another player I might add to your list of possibilies.

Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2018, 08:22:12 AM »
As it turned out, they traded a 3rd this year for a 1st next year. Their are 32 teams that wish they could do that every year. Packers fans should feel lucky this morning to have pulled that off.

Obviously, it depends on how it all shakes out in the coming years. If Derwin James or Tremaine Edmunds is a perennial All-Pro, well then maybe this doesn't look so good. If the Saints win the Super Bowl next year, and our trade results in the 32nd pick, then maybe this isn't so great. There's still value there, but not as much as you'd hope for.

But the converse is also true (and what I'm rooting for): Jaire Alexander LOCKS down the slot on his way to becoming a very effective pro corner and the Saints have a mediocre 2018 season resulting in the Packers having 2 picks in the back half of the First Round next year.

Offline RT

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2018, 08:47:29 AM »
Everyone assumes that James and Edmunds were rated higher because that is what the talking heads have been telling us for over a month now, but Gute suggested Alexander was the pick at 14. I trust in the guys that scout for a living and not the guys who talk for a living.

Offline The GM

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2018, 09:02:32 AM »
I cant help but like the moves.  Alexander is a top corner.  Mayock mocked him to us at 14.  Plus you get a 1st next year.  Alexander will be linked to James and Edmunds and how they do, but he fills a big need.  Seeing many comparisons to Sam Shields.  One thing many are overlooking is the signing of Tramon Williams.  He is going to be a gold mine for both King and Alexander.  I like what Gute has done so far.   Only 1 round in, but he makes you afraid to leave the draft, you might miss something. 
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 09:04:01 AM by The GM »

Offline Descartes

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2018, 10:13:28 AM »
13 picks can't all make the team so this is a good day to spend some of the excess draft capital. My speculation is that the Packers, coming into today with one pick (45), come out with three. Based on this draft value chart (representing the current draft exchange rates) here are some potential scenarios:

Trade 45 down
There are many WR’s left with 2nd-round grades that it is likely a trade-down could yield an additional 3rd round pick and still allow a WR to be drafted that isn’t a reach. Here are some potential trade-down partners for 45 by which an additional 3rd round pick can be acquired. These might need tweaking by some 6th and 7th round exchanges.

Atlanta’s 58 & 90
Pittsburgh’s 60 & 92
Jacksonville’s 61 & 93
NE’s 63 & 95

Once acquired, additional trading of late 3rd-day picks might be used to move up in round 2 or round 3. Of course, this is premised on the notion that they will take a WR in the 2nd, but that is their history when they need a new starter.

Trade 101 up
101 is on the doorstep of the 3rd round—the first pick of the 4th. GB has so much draft “change” that practically any position in the 3rd round can be attained by trade if a willing partner is there. I suspect Gut had this in mind when he traded 76 away. To constrain the possibilities, let’s look to get a pick from 73-79, essentially recovering the 3rd round pick traded away yesterday. Again, some 6th and 7th round trades in either direction might be needed for fine-tuning. All of these leave the Packers with one or more picks in the remaining rounds:

Miami’s 73, SF’s 74, or Oakland’s 75 for 101, 138, 147
Cincinnati’s 77, KC’s 78, for 101, 138, 172
KC’s 78 or Pittsburgh’s 79, for 101, 138, 174

(Seattle has 76, but they were looking for a 3rd rounder and I don't think they would hand it back.)

Really, you could bundle 101 with enough later round picks to get another pick in the late 2nd, but I don't expect that to happen.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 10:29:27 AM by Descartes »

Offline WTX_Cheese

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #20 on: April 27, 2018, 10:21:58 AM »
So who are you guys looking at for today? Considering that we had the bit of news that Bulaga refused a pay cut, I wonder if there's something there. I'd look long and hard at someone like Tyrell Crosby - OT - Oregon. I know it's not a shiny new receiver or edge rusher, but we have GOT to keep Rodgers upright.

Offline RT

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #21 on: April 27, 2018, 10:31:54 AM »
Enjoy the work Descartes and agree with the idea of moving around, but it is for the sake of improving the roster.

Your first comment is one that seems to get a good percentage of fans lost in the weeds. Whether it is selling short the importance of competition or not understanding it at all, but drafting as many quality players as possible is the goal. Not drafting only enough to fill open roster spots. If draft choices get cut, so be it, it is all about the best final 53 in the end. Competition, Competition, Competition.

Offline RT

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2018, 10:48:55 AM »
So who are you guys looking at for today? Considering that we had the bit of news that Bulaga refused a pay cut, I wonder if there's something there. I'd look long and hard at someone like Tyrell Crosby - OT - Oregon. I know it's not a shiny new receiver or edge rusher, but we have GOT to keep Rodgers upright.

In reviewing the players still available their is a high volume of quality players still undrafted. Would not be suprised if an OLineman was a 2nd round pick for the Packers. Expect to see 4 or 5 OL go in the first 12 pick of the second round the way the value board is stacked. Based on BPA would think OL, WR and EDGE are all possiblities for the Packers. 

Offline Descartes

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #23 on: April 27, 2018, 10:52:01 AM »
RT: Not sure if you're arguing against me or for me, but I agree that maximized competition for everyone on the team is the goal and that more bodies are usually better. My view, however, is that there is a point of diminishing returns whereby the level of competition is reduced if quantity is always pursued over quality. As an extreme example, 32 7th rounders do not create more competition for everyone than 3-4 1st-3rd rounders.  My feeling is that, in a "typical" distribution of draft choices, that peak is around 10, with room for much variation. For the Packers this draft I think if they convert some of their quantity into quality they will be better for it.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 10:55:02 AM by Descartes »

Offline craig

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #24 on: April 27, 2018, 11:00:13 AM »
Agree, RT, think receiver, edge, and OL seem most likely target.  Ironically, I still think there are very qualified CB options as well.  But just don't think you can go 1-2 on secondary for the 3rd times in four years.  Need to address some of the rest of the roster, too.... 

I've been dying to add a good receiver for years (whether wide, tight, or slot, I'm not picky).  HOpe they can find one. 

Obviously a good edge would be wonderful, although I'm not confident that anybody who's gone undrafted for the first 44 picks is going to be end up being a studly edge at 45.  Hope Gute can disprove my doubts and find one anyway.

Offline Shinesman

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #25 on: April 27, 2018, 11:21:00 AM »
I'm curious on what they plan to do at linebacker. Not many too notch guys left and we added 4th high round db in 4 years after signing House and William's this offseason. With the DB's still available in round 2 I think it's possible they snag another one because they could very well be the best player on the board. Which pushes other needs further down the talent hill. Very curious what the plan is.
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Offline The GM

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #26 on: April 27, 2018, 11:55:08 AM »
Its about getting quality football players.  Per Casserly, a 10 year study shows that in the 2nd round you have a 50/50 chance of a player still starting in 4 years if he even starts at all.  Thats a flip of the coin.   Its about getting good football players.  Going for need, isn't always a good thing, and you have to do your diligence on medicals, character and the whole nine yards.     
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 12:00:32 PM by The GM »

Offline ThatGuy284

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #27 on: April 27, 2018, 12:01:13 PM »
Everyone assumes that James and Edmunds were rated higher because that is what the talking heads have been telling us for over a month now, but Gute suggested Alexander was the pick at 14. I trust in the guys that scout for a living and not the guys who talk for a living.

They spent a lot of time with Edmunds and James pre-draft - including bringing them to GB as part of their 30 visits.   They knew as much about those two prospects as they possibly could.    I liked Edmunds as much..or more..than anyone but trust the GB staff knows a fair bit more than my YouTube scouting exploits dug up.   No one can accuse the Pack of making a trade and bypassing these two options without having done their full due diligence as to what these guys could add to the team

Online OneTwoSixFive

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #28 on: April 27, 2018, 12:28:15 PM »
Just hated to see us lose that third round pick.  Thought Gute might have got his guy at 27 or been satisfied with Jackson or Oliver if Alexander didn't make it to 27.
Thought it was interesting Gute's comments that they still got there guy after trading out of number 14 which would have put Alexander above Edwards and James on their big board.

As I pointed out in another thread, if the Packers really feel the need for another high pick this year they should be able to trade one of next years first round picks (their own or the Saints) for (for example) one of the Browns round two picks (pick #33 or #35). Failure to do that kind of trade would suggest to me they don't feel a burning need for another high second rounder, not at the cost of next years round 1 pick.
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Offline dannobanano

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Re: April 27 Day 2 Discussions
« Reply #29 on: April 27, 2018, 01:01:23 PM »
Agree, RT, think receiver, edge, and OL seem most likely target.  Ironically, I still think there are very qualified CB options as well.  But just don't think you can go 1-2 on secondary for the 3rd times in four years.  Need to address some of the rest of the roster, too.... 

I've been dying to add a good receiver for years (whether wide, tight, or slot, I'm not picky).  HOpe they can find one. 

Obviously a good edge would be wonderful, although I'm not confident that anybody who's gone undrafted for the first 44 picks is going to be end up being a studly edge at 45.  Hope Gute can disprove my doubts and find one anyway.

Yes, agreed craig.

There are still very good CB's & S's that could go early in this round which may push an OL or Edge player even farther down than may have previously been expected.

Josh Jackson
Donte Jackson
Isaiah Oliver
Carlton Davis

Those CB's could cause an early run at that position group.

Safety group is decent as well.

Harrison
Reid
Bates

That's about 22% of the available 2nd round picks.

We might even see a mini-run on RB's here too.

Very good values in Chubb, Guice, and Jones