Very Good Article About our 1st round approach

[Shinesman]

Saw this written today and pretty much sums up my feelings about the first round and why, even though everyone seems to think it was a great success, it could have been a great mistake.

https://t.co/5OmvkFG20d

[ricky]

No argument here. It could be a great mistake. It could set the Packers on the road to winning back-to-back SB's. Today, I saw a notification for a site that wanted to grade every team's first round draft pick. Which is nonsense. How many first round busts have there been? A lot:

http://www.businessinsider.com/top-nfl-draft-busts-2017-10

Meanwhile, we won't know how good Alexander is until the real games begin. He was the player mocked by Mayock the night before the draft. Also, with other players available, a lot of whom were widely discussed on this board available, the Packers chose to move back, and then maneuver to get Alexander. They knew who they wanted, got him, and also got a first round pick next year.

All this discussion is interesting, but academic. From the article, here is the last paragraph, the one that, to me, says it all:

Now we’ll have to watch and wait for a couple years to see whether Gutekunst made the right call by taking Alexander rather than sitting and picking Edmunds, James or Davenport at 14.

[Payne85]

I don't think it takes a couple of years.  If Edmunds is a stud, we will know it by Week 6.  And if he is, pushing value out another year in Rodgers's football life is a mistake.  I could not believe that he was there and we didn't pounce on him.  Additionally,  we should have been trading future picks for Michel or Guice as well. 

Payne85

[OneTwoSixFive]

It was not a straight competition between T.J.Watt and Kevin King last year. It was Watt vs KIng + Biegel (Biegel was the pick gained by moving back for King).

In the same way, it is not a straight-up comparison between Alexander vs Edmunds/Davenport/James, - you have to factor in a first round draft pick from NO. That could be a high pick, if 39 year old Drew Brees gets injured for any length of time..........or it could be a low one if the Saints play well and stay healthy. That extra pick could parlay into a top pass rusher next year, like Bosa or Ferrell (those guys are gone VERY quickly. Next year is projected to be better than this year at pass rusher.

Fans tend to have a win-now mentality, but it is the GMs responsibility to keep his team competitive over a longer haul. I have few reservations with how round one panned out, that 2019 first rounder for moving down four spots (they also lost a 3rd), sealed a great day one. They filled a crucial spot (the vacated nickel CB caused by the trade of Randall), and got future riches.

One of the most dangerous mentalities to have as a GM, is to think you are one great player away from a SB. This leads to deals like the one between Dallas and Minnesota (the Herschel Walker trade). How well did THAT work out for Minny. Would I have liked to see Edmunds or Davenport as a Packer, yes I would - do I think the Packers blundered with Alexander........no.

[Twain]

I think media covering the Packers has had too much emphasis on edge rushers.

As I said in a different thread, if you look at the Vikings defense the first round picks are in the defensive backfield.  The top 3 edge rushers on their depth chart are a 3rd rounder and two 4th rounders.

With that, the Vikings are one of the top defenses in the NFL.

Pass rush and coverage are tightly linked, and dependent on each other.  In today's NFL, unless you can get tight coverage for the first three seconds, your pass rush is screwed against a top QB.  I think Gute gets that, so he drafted to fix that situation knowing it will take a year for these guys to develop.  I would speculate that next year he will go big on pass rush.

Like I said in the other thread, we are in a mini-rebuld.   I think this was a good first step.

[Ptpaq]

I would prefer to have Derwin + a 3rd over Jaire + a future first. Jaire has a future in the league but he is going to get roasted a lot early, he gave up big plays in college and I don't think he like to tackle NEARLY as much as media is giving him credit for.  It's possible GM's were not fully comfortable with Derwin's knee, so w/o any inside access to that knowledge I can't make much more of a judgement.

If we had kept that 3rd rounder, we would have had the ammo to move up for a falling Harold Landry, who will be yet another regret.  Instead we have Josh Jackson, another guy who CAN carve out a role but just isn't ready schematically, isn't physical AT ALL.  Looks like we were poised for our usual Round 2 Under-the-Radar-Awesome WR Gem (Pettis) but got jumped by San Fran, that was interesting.

Then we TRADE UP, for a guy that runs around the field "Fast" but doesn't look like any of those Vanderbilt smarts are translating to football IQ.

And then we would prefer to draft a a sub-par O-linemen, or stick pat at the end of the 5th for a PUNTER, instead of making moves for line backing/pass rushing play makers like Ogbonnia Okoronkwo or Shaquem Griffin.

And how do we NOT put quality reinforcement into this OLine? We are already thin across the line with a questionable Bulaga and everyone feels like its fine. But its okay Rodgers, while you are getting killed back there again, we have an extra 1st to use next year.

[dannobanano]

I think media covering the Packers has had too much emphasis on edge rushers.

As I said in a different thread, if you look at the Vikings defense the first round picks are in the defensive backfield.  The top 3 edge rushers on their depth chart are a 3rd rounder and two 4th rounders.

With that, the Vikings are one of the top defenses in the NFL.

Pass rush and coverage are tightly linked, and dependent on each other.  In today's NFL, unless you can get tight coverage for the first three seconds, your pass rush is screwed against a top QB.  I think Gute gets that, so he drafted to fix that situation knowing it will take a year for these guys to develop. I would speculate that next year he will go big on pass rush.

Like I said in the other thread, we are in a mini-rebuld.   I think this was a good first step.

Well, next years draft could have a bumper crop of Edge rushers. Gute could use both 1st round picks and stock the OLB shelf for years.

[OneTwoSixFive]

I would prefer to have Derwin + a 3rd over Jaire + a future first. Jaire has a future in the league but he is going to get roasted a lot early, he gave up big plays in college and I don't think he like to tackle NEARLY as much as media is giving him credit for.  It's possible GM's were not fully comfortable with Derwin's knee, so w/o any inside access to that knowledge I can't make much more of a judgement.

If we had kept that 3rd rounder, we would have had the ammo to move up for a falling Harold Landry, who will be yet another regret.  Instead we have Josh Jackson, another guy who CAN carve out a role but just isn't ready schematically, isn't physical AT ALL.  Looks like we were poised for our usual Round 2 Under-the-Radar-Awesome WR Gem (Pettis) but got jumped by San Fran, that was interesting.

Then we TRADE UP, for a guy that runs around the field "Fast" but doesn't look like any of those Vanderbilt smarts are translating to football IQ.

And then we would prefer to draft a a sub-par O-linemen, or stick pat at the end of the 5th for a PUNTER, instead of making moves for line backing/pass rushing play makers like Ogbonnia Okoronkwo or Shaquem Griffin.

And how do we NOT put quality reinforcement into this OLine? We are already thin across the line with a questionable Bulaga and everyone feels like its fine. But its okay Rodgers, while you are getting killed back there again, we have an extra 1st to use next year.

Too much emphasis on 2018 and what the draft picks might be NOW. This is a longer term game. What will these guys be after a couple of years ? If you want upgrades, look for Biegel, M.Adams, Spriggs, J.Jones to provide them - they are 2nd or 3rd year guys.

[Gregg]

From what I have read next year's draft is very good on the DL.

So maybe that is what the GM was planning on in his two year rebuild.  Secondary this year, DL next.  And maybe, just maybe, we will go to a 4-3 next year.

[RT]

From what I have read next year's draft is very good on the DL.

So maybe that is what the GM was planning on in his two year rebuild.  Secondary this year, DL next.  And maybe, just maybe, we will go to a 4-3 next year.

You have mentioned a few time about the Packers being in a rebuild. They are no more in a rebuild then the Eagles, Patriots or Vikings are. They currently have one of the highest over/under win totals in Vegas and are one of the six highest favored teams to win the SB at every book in Vegas. Hardly a profile of a team in rebuild, reload yes, but that is the case for every top team in the NFL.

[OneTwoSixFive]

Rebuild is an emotional term that applies at different levels to the person that reads that term. The loss of starters like Nelson, Randall, Burnett, and the losses further back of Lang, Sitton, Shields, can lead some to see a rebuild.

My take is that the losses are more, and more important than the average year, but fall short of what i understand as a rebuild..........so I'd call it a mini-rebuild.

[Shinesman]

I think media covering the Packers has had too much emphasis on edge rushers.

As I said in a different thread, if you look at the Vikings defense the first round picks are in the defensive backfield.  The top 3 edge rushers on their depth chart are a 3rd rounder and two 4th rounders.

With that, the Vikings are one of the top defenses in the NFL.

Pass rush and coverage are tightly linked, and dependent on each other.  In today's NFL, unless you can get tight coverage for the first three seconds, your pass rush is screwed against a top QB.  I think Gute gets that, so he drafted to fix that situation knowing it will take a year for these guys to develop.  I would speculate that next year he will go big on pass rush.

Like I said in the other thread, we are in a mini-rebuld.   I think this was a good first step.

The Vikings also run a 4-3. So they dont seek OLB edge rushers. They have DE's who can rush.  Big difference. The Packers also had MANY times where the backend held it ground for 5+ seconds. The front 7 just could not get home because they dont have a dominant pass rusher. A lights out defensive front with and okay defensive backfield will do more good than a lights out backend with and okay fron 7.

[Twain]

The Vikings also run a 4-3. So they dont seek OLB edge rushers. They have DE's who can rush.  Big difference. The Packers also had MANY times where the backend held it ground for 5+ seconds. The front 7 just could not get home because they dont have a dominant pass rusher. A lights out defensive front with and okay defensive backfield will do more good than a lights out backend with and okay fron 7.

Couple of points:

1:The edge rushers for the Vikings are indeed defensive ends, and they are indeed mid round picks.  And it is true what I said, their first round picks on defense have been defensive backs, and they did that again this year.  And, they were the #1 defense for yds/gm last year.  Apparently they prioritize differently than Packer fans and media.

2:We as fans have no idea what Pettine's defense in Green Bay will be, but I believe it will be a 4-3 under, since that is what he has run elsewhere.  If that is the case, then the OLB needs change considerably.


Consider the following:

3:In Pettine's previous system, there was the "rush" OLB that has the traits of a Nick Perry type player, and there is a SAM backer on the other side that fits the Kyler Fackrell type that can play in space covering short zones, and blitz when called for.  The SAM is not a primary rusher.  The Sam is paired up with the 5 technique on that side, likely Wilkerson, and the rush threat comes from the multiplicity that the combo produces.  Get on NFL.com's game pass and watch the all 22 from Pettine's stay in Buffalo- it will clarify a lot of things.

4:In general, the pass rush from the 4-3 under comes from the ability to force favorable matchups since the only pass rusher easily doubled is the 1 technique, and it is easy to disguise where the pressure will come from and overload the blocking scheme.

 
I will end with this:

5:I don't believe the dominant problem last year was the defensive backfield covered well but broke down with time.  The bigger issue was the coverage was poor, especially in zone assignments, and the QB had multiple open targets and could throw before pressure had a chance.  You won't fix the pass rush until you fix the back end.  The two go together like hand in glove.  As a result, our ability to get 2 of the top corners in this draft was a huge stroke of luck for developing the scheme.

6:As I have said before, I believe we are in a mini rebuild, and Gute will likely upgrade EDGE next year.  However, much like when Capers came to town and converted from the 4-3 to a 3-4, everyone in the media were saying he didn't have the correct player types for the scheme.  Despite that, his defenses in his first two years were top 5.  Likewise, y'all just need to give this some time to reveal itself before you start saying it isn't going to work. 

[RT]

The Vikings also run a 4-3. So they dont seek OLB edge rushers. They have DE's who can rush.  Big difference. The Packers also had MANY times where the backend held it ground for 5+ seconds. The front 7 just could not get home because they dont have a dominant pass rusher. A lights out defensive front with and okay defensive backfield will do more good than a lights out backend with and okay fron 7.

Couple of points:

1:The edge rushers for the Vikings are indeed defensive ends, and they are indeed mid round picks.  And it is true what I said, their first round picks on defense have been defensive backs, and they did that again this year.  And, they were the #1 defense for yds/gm last year.  Apparently they prioritize differently than Packer fans and media.

2:We as fans have no idea what Pettine's defense in Green Bay will be, but I believe it will be a 4-3 under, since that is what he has run elsewhere.  If that is the case, then the OLB needs change considerably.


Consider the following:

3:In Pettine's previous system, there was the "rush" OLB that has the traits of a Nick Perry type player, and there is a SAM backer on the other side that fits the Kyler Fackrell type that can play in space covering short zones, and blitz when called for.  The SAM is not a primary rusher.  The Sam is paired up with the 5 technique on that side, likely Wilkerson, and the rush threat comes from the multiplicity that the combo produces.  Get on NFL.com's game pass and watch the all 22 from Pettine's stay in Buffalo- it will clarify a lot of things.

4:In general, the pass rush from the 4-3 under comes from the ability to force favorable matchups since the only pass rusher easily doubled is the 1 technique, and it is easy to disguise where the pressure will come from and overload the blocking scheme.

 
I will end with this:

5:I don't believe the dominant problem last year was the defensive backfield covered well but broke down with time.  The bigger issue was the coverage was poor, especially in zone assignments, and the QB had multiple open targets and could throw before pressure had a chance.  You won't fix the pass rush until you fix the back end.  The two go together like hand in glove.  As a result, our ability to get 2 of the top corners in this draft was a huge stroke of luck for developing the scheme.

6:As I have said before, I believe we are in a mini rebuild, and Gute will likely upgrade EDGE next year.  However, much like when Capers came to town and converted from the 4-3 to a 3-4, everyone in the media were saying he didn't have the correct player types for the scheme.  Despite that, his defenses in his first two years were top 5.  Likewise, y'all just need to give this some time to reveal itself before you start saying it isn't going to work.

+1

Excellent, informative post.

[OneTwoSixFive]

....................I will end with this:

5:I don't believe the dominant problem last year was the defensive backfield covered well but broke down with time.  The bigger issue was the coverage was poor, especially in zone assignments, and the QB had multiple open targets and could throw before pressure had a chance.  You won't fix the pass rush until you fix the back end.  The two go together like hand in glove.  As a result, our ability to get 2 of the top corners in this draft was a huge stroke of luck for developing the scheme.

6:As I have said before, I believe we are in a mini rebuild, and Gute will likely upgrade EDGE next year.  However, much like when Capers came to town and converted from the 4-3 to a 3-4, everyone in the media were saying he didn't have the correct player types for the scheme.  Despite that, his defenses in his first two years were top 5.  Likewise, y'all just need to give this some time to reveal itself before you start saying it isn't going to work.

That's pretty much how I see things. there were too many holes to fix everything this year without over-spending (remember Aaron Rodgers contract is almost here). CB looks like it is fixed if the players pan out as expected, D line is above average, ILB is below average, but could easily be above average with a better coverage LB, ie Oren Burks. The Packers defense really could be just one good pass rusher away now. It will be interesting to see if the Packers make a major change in what they have done for years, and emphasise the offensive side of the ball in the next two drafts. OL, WR, TE need improving, and even an extra RB is not a useless pick. It's pretty clear to see that the Packers plan was to help Pettine field the kind of defense he wants, with 2x CBs and a coverage ILB as the first three picks.