November 13, 2018, 07:39:01 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Draft and beyond  (Read 1454 times)

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Offline dannobanano

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2019 Draft and beyond
« on: August 04, 2018, 11:43:00 AM »
Just continuing some thoughts from a thread in Packers Talk where it was discussed whether or not to use one of the 2019 1st round picks for Earl Thomas.

Looking ahead at the 2019 UFA's AND the 2020 UFA's here is my reasoning as to why Gute needs to keep & use both those 1st rounders in 2019.

The Packers 2019 UFA's include:
Clay Matthews - won't be back unless he has a killer year and/or is willing to accept 1/2 or less what he's making this year
Randall Cobb - won't be back because he will want too much
Mo Wilkerson - Will only be back if he's willing to accept a contract slightly north of what he's making this year. My guess is he will want more and be gone
Marcedes Lewis - If he's a real asset this year I could see another 1 yr extension, but my sense is Gute wants to get younger at the position
Lance Kendricks - Won't be back for the same reason stated above
Byron Bell - May still be cut this year
Davon House - Won't be back next year. His veteran presence is an asset this year as the kids grow into their roles. No future for him
Quinten Rollins - On the fence here. He's playing a sort of hybrid role in the middle of the field so far and hasn't looked lost
Ty Montgomery - Won't be back next year. Expect them to draft another RB. Too much of an injury risk/history
Jake Ryan - His ACL spells the end of his time as a Packer. Too bad. Good guy
Brett Hundley - He might get cut this year
Aaron Ripkowski - Might Keep him with a low end contract extension
Demetri Goodson - He will get cut this year

There are also, 6 RFA's and 19 ERFA's (holy buckets!)
Names of interest in this group include:
Lucas Patrick
Adam Pankey
Justin McCray
Jermaine Whitehead
Kentrell Brice
Marwin Evans
Jake Kumerow
Ahmad Thomas
Reggie Gilbert
Emanuel Byrd

But now look at the key 2020 UFA's that you might want to start planning for with the 2019 draft...............
(This would have been Rodger UFA year, but we all fully expect he will be extended before the season starts this year (2018)
Mike Daniels............. These are three critical signings for the future of the Packers defense.
Kenny Clark............. With some uncertainty regarding whether or not to keep Mo Wilkerson
Dean Lowry............. What to do with these 3 members of the DL will loom large for the Packers future and is a great reason to keep both 2019 1st Rnd's
Bryan Bulaga - His injury history clouds his GB future
Jason Spriggs - His injury history and ineffectiveness clouds his GB future
Kyle Murphy - Ditto
Mason Crosby - How much does he have left in that leg? He's been missing some in camp. Is that on him or lousy long snappers?
Blake Martinez - Fast becoming a cornerstone of the defense. Better find a way to keep him, or defense could take a step back
Tramon Williams - Thanks for helping getting the young'ns up to speed, but it's bye-bye time
Lenzy Pipkins - He's growing towards being a strong 4th CB. If he stays the course, they need to keep him
Trevor Davis - Is he just a PR guy? He may be on the bubble this year
Chris Odom - Read where he's lost some weight and looks like a great fit for Pettines defense. Would be nice to see Odom, Biegel, and Gilbert all break out this year. Might not have to use a high pick in 2019 on an Edge/OLB is that happens.


Just to pull this all together.

The Packers are heading for stormy waters with regard to possibly losing several KEY players on the defensive side of the ball over the next 2 years, unless they can work some magic on early extensions and creative contract structure.

Keeping both 1st round picks for 2019 is one of the best ways to be able to plan for potential loss of some key players. Let's face it. Packers aren't going to be able to keep all of Wilkerson, Daniels, Clark, and Lowry (this is currently 80% of their DL!!). One or two good draft picks are going to be needed here, plus M-Adams becomes UFA in 2021.

Needing to keep Martinez is nearly a given at this point.

I don't see an OT of Bulaga's quality on the roster yet. So that's a high draft priority.

OLB could be a very high need if Odom/Biegel/Gilbert don't make signifcant progress

TE anyone?

Given these thoughts, IMHO, Gute needs to keep (and use wisely) all of his high draft picks for the next two years. If he can swindle more picks from teams like he did to N.O. this year.................I'm all for it! Just.........PLEASE.........don't give any picks away. Especially 1st/2nd/3rd rounders. You're going to need them all, Gute!

Offline PackerJoe

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2018, 03:08:56 PM »
Didn't see the worthless Perry on this list.  How much do we save by cutting him?

Online ricky

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2018, 08:02:22 PM »
Didn't see the worthless Perry on this list.  How much do we save by cutting him?

The cost of cutting him would be prohibitive. $19.1 in dead cap. Here are the details:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/nick-perry-9838/
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Offline dannobanano

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2018, 08:11:42 AM »
Didn't see the worthless Perry on this list.  How much do we save by cutting him?

The cost of cutting him would be prohibitive. $19.1 in dead cap. Here are the details:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/nick-perry-9838/

Not just the dead money.

There is no (zero) cap savings this year by letting him go. His release would reduce the Packers cap by $8,350,000 this year, and IIRC the Packers currently only have ~ $7M left in cap space.

Offline RT

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2018, 08:38:03 AM »
Nice work putting all this together danno.

As for the 2019 and 2020 UFA's, I think the only 2 that are strong re-sign possiblities are Clark and Martinez. Spriggs and/or Murphy are yet to be determined. All the remaining on the lists are slim to no chance of recieving another contract from the Packers. Just the natural turnover of a NFL roster, re-sign the players that they identify as core players and everyone else is replaced by new draft classes.

As for Perry, he is going nowhere either, he is a core player on the Packers defense and everyone in 32 NFL front offices know how good of player he is even if some nitwit Packers fans do not. Complain if they want, but Perry will be playing out his contract with the Packers.

Offline craig

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2018, 09:01:00 PM »
Nice post, Danno, thanks. 
Agree with main two take-home points:
1.  Need to use two firsts to draft two good players, rather than using one to trade up or trade for a pricey rental.
2.  Need to replace a bunch of players with internal talent, whether that be draftees recent, present, or future.  (Or UDFA). 

I admit that I am a big optimist, and am hopeful that a couple of guys have good healthy years and are desirable resigns.  I'm optimistic that Ty has just been the victim of some unfortunately injuries, and that he's going to be very effective this year and beyond.  That's a strong, tough guy to have played through the broken ribs last year.  I think with better health and a healthier offense, that we might appreciate him a lot more this season.

I'm also hopeful that between Cobb and Wilkerson, that both will play healthy and effectively this year, and that after the year is done, the Packers will be interested in resigning one of them. 

Online The GM

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2018, 07:50:57 PM »
Good work Danno.  I think Gute will definitely lose some players, but will also be agressive in getting others.  You drop a Jordy Nelson, and pick up a Jimmy Graham.  Will it be effective? We will see, but I think going after FAs that fit will be a factor in all of this.  Nothing overpriced, but smartly vetted to fit on the team and the cap. I think some are stuck in the TT mindset. I think Gute has some of that, but is more willing to take a risk here and there.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 07:55:21 PM by The GM »

Offline packdaddy

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2018, 12:20:34 AM »
Didn't see the worthless Perry on this list.  How much do we save by cutting him?

The cost of cutting him would be prohibitive. $19.1 in dead cap. Here are the details:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/nick-perry-9838/

One more good pass rusher, or two, would allow for a rotation wherein Perry could thrive.

Offline RT

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2018, 09:35:58 AM »
Perry is not playing like someone who is 100% healthy at the moment. Hopefully he starts to turn it up and make more impactful plays soon, they need him.

Online ricky

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2018, 09:52:23 PM »
What they needed to do was sign Mack. Two firsts would be too much? Look at what he's doing for the Bears. The guy right now is on track to be DPOY. He would have immediately made the Packers defense a lot better. Expensive? Absolutely. But how often do you get a guy who can tilt the field like him? What would you give to get Rodgers at the same age? Because Mack is that impactful on defense.
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Online marklawrence

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2018, 04:55:19 AM »
What they needed to do was sign Mack. Two firsts would be too much? Look at what he's doing for the Bears. The guy right now is on track to be DPOY. He would have immediately made the Packers defense a lot better. Expensive? Absolutely. But how often do you get a guy who can tilt the field like him? What would you give to get Rodgers at the same age? Because Mack is that impactful on defense.

How may times will this come up? The Raiders got two Bears firsts, worth about 2100 points. Our two firsts next year are worth about 1300 points. That missing 800 points is more than another of our firsts. We would have had to offer three firsts and a second to be competitive.

Or do you think the raiders are too stupid to add?

The price was not two firsts. It was two Bears firsts.

We were offering two $5 bills. The bears were offering two $10 bills. It's really that simple. It's not, "Why didn't we offer two pieces of money?"
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 05:29:48 AM by marklawrence »
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Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: 2019 Draft and beyond
« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2018, 06:31:47 AM »

How may times will this come up? The Raiders got two Bears firsts, worth about 2100 points. Our two firsts next year are worth about 1300 points. That missing 800 points is more than another of our firsts. We would have had to offer three firsts and a second to be competitive.

Or do you think the raiders are too stupid to add?

A a pick in any one year is always worth more than one the following year - and the Packers could have offered two firsts this year, to the Bears one in 2019 and one in 2020. But, I still agree that the Bears picks just seem more valuable. So, the Bears now have Mack........but the Packers will probably go pass rusher very early in the next draft - they may even double down with two early picks.

More than this, Mack is gone, so there isn't much to be gained by lamenting that, any more than bringing up how the Packers 'should' have drafted T.J.Watt over King (which I think is a wash, anyway)...........or my personal favourite CB Fabian Moreau, who I really liked before the 2017 draft. Certainly I preferred him over Josh Jones in round 2 (Moreau went #81), but he plays for the Skins and JJ plays for us - it is what it is.
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