Fixing one position per year

[packdaddy]

The Packers have long been a team that seems to approach the draft with the intent of concentrating on or emphasizing a targeted position in their draft approach.  Last year, we shored up the running game.  This year, we seem to have fixed the CB position for years to come.  The next draft needs to home in on either the pass rush (OLB) or the safety position. 

I'm in favor of the former. 

With 2 first round picks, perhaps we double down on pass rush specialists? Of course there are other needs (another good WR, another good TE, O-Line depth, etc.), but perhaps this is finally the year the Pack upgrades this aspect of the game?

It's too early to name any names, but I believe this would be the best use of our draft capital. Early and often.

[RT]

I think you are seeing what you want to see here. The Packers didn't go into the 2nd day of the draft this year with the idea of doubling down at corner, Gute even stated that at his press conference following day 2. Jackson was just the best player on their board at the time they were on the clock. It was mentioned by a few in the know in the days before the draft that the Packers were going to take WR Daute Pettis in the 2nd round if the draft fell that way and a few pick before the Packers selection his agent hinted that on twitter. Ironically the 49ers trade up right before the Packers and selected Pettis. The Packers will continue to select the best player available regardless of position.

[OneTwoSixFive]

.......... The Packers will continue to select the best player available regardless of position.

I certainly disagree with this, though it can only be my opinion, since we will never know how Gute stacks his board. That said, I also don't see the Packers being locked into one position*, but will choose between a few positions of need. No G, QB, CB, DT, in the first two rounds. That still leaves plenty of options, but I think the first three picks (2 x 1sts and 1 x 2nd) will be spread around between three of OLB (maybe x2), OT, S, TE.

WR is an outside possibility early, if they think none of the rooks can rise to a no.2 spot...........it's even more likely if Cobb is let go after 2018 (currently, I think he gets another contract).

That leaves plenty of choice for Gute. Now just maybe Gute picks at one of my unfavoured positions, but I think the guy there has to be a lot better than all the others to get chosen. If his edge is only marginal, I think they go favoured position. Weak positional groups give the biggest gains from high-level draft talent, because the talent jump for that unit will (hopefully) be a big one. Imagine how much better the Packers would look, if an early pick pass rusher, or Safety, looked as good 'straight out of the box' as Alexander has this year.

* The closest thing to the Packers being locked in might come with pick one for an edge rusher, since the need is so dire, and the better guys at those positions go off the boards with such breathtaking speed.

[RT]

.......... The Packers will continue to select the best player available regardless of position.

I certainly disagree with this, though it can only be my opinion, since we will never know how Gute stacks his board. That said, I also don't see the Packers being locked into one position*, but will choose between a few positions of need. No G, QB, CB, DT, in the first two rounds. That still leaves plenty of options, but I think the first three picks (2 x 1sts and 1 x 2nd) will be spread around between three of OLB (maybe x2), OT, S, TE.

WR is an outside possibility early, if they think none of the rooks can rise to a no.2 spot...........it's even more likely if Cobb is let go after 2018 (currently, I think he gets another contract).

That leaves plenty of choice for Gute. Now just maybe Gute picks at one of my unfavoured positions, but I think the guy there has to be a lot better than all the others to get chosen. If his edge is only marginal, I think they go favoured position. Weak positional groups give the biggest gains from high-level draft talent, because the talent jump for that unit will (hopefully) be a big one. Imagine how much better the Packers would look, if an early pick pass rusher, or Safety, looked as good 'straight out of the box' as Alexander has this year.

* The closest thing to the Packers being locked in might come with pick one for an edge rusher, since the need is so dire, and the better guys at those positions go off the boards with such breathtaking speed.

Semantics.

[OneTwoSixFive]

Semantics.

No, context and detail.   

[dannobanano]

Best Player Available is a misnomer when put into context.

The Packers, like all NFL teams, will rate players on their board based on a "score".

They could have 2-3-4 players all rated with the same/nearly same score.

If those players (as a hypothetical example) were QB, RB, C, OLB............which one do we think would get the most serious consideration first, based on current perceived "need"?

Many times that choice could easily be based on the most current critical "need", which many of us consider to be OLB.

Has it, in fact, happened this way in the past?

I can't say because I have not been privy to being in the Packers War Room on draft day to be part of that conversation.

 

[Shinesman]

.......... The Packers will continue to select the best player available regardless of position.

I certainly disagree with this, though it can only be my opinion, since we will never know how Gute stacks his board. That said, I also don't see the Packers being locked into one position*, but will choose between a few positions of need. No G, QB, CB, DT, in the first two rounds. That still leaves plenty of options, but I think the first three picks (2 x 1sts and 1 x 2nd) will be spread around between three of OLB (maybe x2), OT, S, TE.

WR is an outside possibility early, if they think none of the rooks can rise to a no.2 spot...........it's even more likely if Cobb is let go after 2018 (currently, I think he gets another contract).

That leaves plenty of choice for Gute. Now just maybe Gute picks at one of my unfavoured positions, but I think the guy there has to be a lot better than all the others to get chosen. If his edge is only marginal, I think they go favoured position. Weak positional groups give the biggest gains from high-level draft talent, because the talent jump for that unit will (hopefully) be a big one. Imagine how much better the Packers would look, if an early pick pass rusher, or Safety, looked as good 'straight out of the box' as Alexander has this year.

* The closest thing to the Packers being locked in might come with pick one for an edge rusher, since the need is so dire, and the better guys at those positions go off the boards with such breathtaking speed.

They did a great job passing on Myles Jack.....

[dannobanano]

.......... The Packers will continue to select the best player available regardless of position.

I certainly disagree with this, though it can only be my opinion, since we will never know how Gute stacks his board. That said, I also don't see the Packers being locked into one position*, but will choose between a few positions of need. No G, QB, CB, DT, in the first two rounds. That still leaves plenty of options, but I think the first three picks (2 x 1sts and 1 x 2nd) will be spread around between three of OLB (maybe x2), OT, S, TE.

WR is an outside possibility early, if they think none of the rooks can rise to a no.2 spot...........it's even more likely if Cobb is let go after 2018 (currently, I think he gets another contract).

That leaves plenty of choice for Gute. Now just maybe Gute picks at one of my unfavoured positions, but I think the guy there has to be a lot better than all the others to get chosen. If his edge is only marginal, I think they go favoured position. Weak positional groups give the biggest gains from high-level draft talent, because the talent jump for that unit will (hopefully) be a big one. Imagine how much better the Packers would look, if an early pick pass rusher, or Safety, looked as good 'straight out of the box' as Alexander has this year.

* The closest thing to the Packers being locked in might come with pick one for an edge rusher, since the need is so dire, and the better guys at those positions go off the boards with such breathtaking speed.

They did a great job passing on Myles Jack.....

Or passing on TJ Watt to trade down to get King.

King may become a fine player, if he can stay healthy.............which so far he hasn't, but Watt would have offered more immediate results/impact.

This is, really, a "What If" game, and what I'm hoping for in the next draft is that they are in a position to draft players who can contribute ASAP, and who don't come with an injury cloud hanging over their head.

My ideal order of priorities for the draft (and, again, this depends on how the board would shake out) would be..............

OLB
OT
S
DL
OG
TE
RB

I was previously thinking DL would be the 2nd one on this list, but I think they may be able to get Wilkerson back on the cheap because he won't command much on the open market. And since it's a deep draft at DL they can add one in the middle rounds to go along with the developmental players already on the PS (Lancaster, Looney, Simon)

[OneTwoSixFive]

King may become a fine player, if he can stay healthy.............which so far he hasn't, but Watt would have offered more immediate results/impact.

This is, really, a "What If" game, and what I'm hoping for in the next draft is that they are in a position to draft players who can contribute ASAP, and who don't come with an injury cloud hanging over their head.

My ideal order of priorities for the draft (and, again, this depends on how the board would shake out) would be..............

OLB
OT
S
DL
OG
TE
RB

I was previously thinking DL would be the 2nd one on this list, but I think they may be able to get Wilkerson back on the cheap because he won't command much on the open market. And since it's a deep draft at DL they can add one in the middle rounds to go along with the developmental players already on the PS (Lancaster, Looney, Simon)

My ideal is similar and morphs a bit over time. But I'd very likely go edge with the first pick, the level of need there is serious. After that, things are more fluid. I'd like a safety and an offensive tackle next (either way round), but there are a few provisos. At safety, Whitehead is looking good at the moment, while Josh Jones, who isn't, still has time to turn it around this year. If their arrows keep pointing up, and if Clinton-Dix stays on the team in 2019, the need for safety would diminish. Equally, if Spriggs improves, the need for a tackle is less, but I'm about ready, in his third year, to call him a busted pick.

Other candidates for an early(ish) pick ? Since TEs Kendricks and Lewis aren't signed past this year, they may be thinking TE somewhere in rounds 2-4. It's entirely possible there is a double-dip at edge rusher in the same bracket of picks.

I'd not really considered DL seriously as a pick, but on reflection, even if Wilkerson is back next year, mid to mid/late punts on DL and OG seem reasonable.

A WR early might happen, but for that to occur it needs either Cobb to be gone, or that the rooks are not progressing well enough to think of any of them as either starter-level opposite Adams, or starter-level in the slot. This seems unfair on Allison, who is doing everything asked of him, but he isn't a guy that scares anyone, or one that can get separation very easily. I think WR is somewhat unlikely........but possible.

Putting that in some kind of favoured order, though it is far from 'set in stone', I'd go something like
1a) Edge,
1b) S,
2)  Edge
3)  OT, (I went with a later, more developmental pick here, due to Bulaga still improving, after his ACL).
4)  TE,
5)  DL
6) OG
7) Any developmental guy with good athletic traits

All said and done, it is very like danno's picks. My biggest worry with the above scenario is that it is (again) favouring the defense early.
An alternative more offense-focused draft could be: 1a Edge, 1b TE, 2 OT, 3 S, 4 OG, 5 DL, 6&7 high RAS developmental.

[RT]

.......... The Packers will continue to select the best player available regardless of position.

I certainly disagree with this, though it can only be my opinion, since we will never know how Gute stacks his board. That said, I also don't see the Packers being locked into one position*, but will choose between a few positions of need. No G, QB, CB, DT, in the first two rounds. That still leaves plenty of options, but I think the first three picks (2 x 1sts and 1 x 2nd) will be spread around between three of OLB (maybe x2), OT, S, TE.

WR is an outside possibility early, if they think none of the rooks can rise to a no.2 spot...........it's even more likely if Cobb is let go after 2018 (currently, I think he gets another contract).

That leaves plenty of choice for Gute. Now just maybe Gute picks at one of my unfavoured positions, but I think the guy there has to be a lot better than all the others to get chosen. If his edge is only marginal, I think they go favoured position. Weak positional groups give the biggest gains from high-level draft talent, because the talent jump for that unit will (hopefully) be a big one. Imagine how much better the Packers would look, if an early pick pass rusher, or Safety, looked as good 'straight out of the box' as Alexander has this year.

* The closest thing to the Packers being locked in might come with pick one for an edge rusher, since the need is so dire, and the better guys at those positions go off the boards with such breathtaking speed.

They did a great job passing on Myles Jack.....

Are you suggesting they should of passed on Kenny Clark and taken Myles Jack?

[OneTwoSixFive]

Are you suggesting they should of passed on Kenny Clark and taken Myles Jack?

I think the suggestion was that Myles Jack has not been that good, rather than the Packers should have grabbed him.

[dannobanano]

King may become a fine player, if he can stay healthy.............which so far he hasn't, but Watt would have offered more immediate results/impact.

This is, really, a "What If" game, and what I'm hoping for in the next draft is that they are in a position to draft players who can contribute ASAP, and who don't come with an injury cloud hanging over their head.

My ideal order of priorities for the draft (and, again, this depends on how the board would shake out) would be..............

OLB
OT
S
DL
OG
TE
RB

I was previously thinking DL would be the 2nd one on this list, but I think they may be able to get Wilkerson back on the cheap because he won't command much on the open market. And since it's a deep draft at DL they can add one in the middle rounds to go along with the developmental players already on the PS (Lancaster, Looney, Simon)

My ideal is similar and morphs a bit over time. But I'd very likely go edge with the first pick, the level of need there is serious. After that, things are more fluid. I'd like a safety and an offensive tackle next (either way round), but there are a few provisos. At safety, Whitehead is looking good at the moment, while Josh Jones, who isn't, still has time to turn it around this year. If their arrows keep pointing up, and if Clinton-Dix stays on the team in 2019, the need for safety would diminish. Equally, if Spriggs improves, the need for a tackle is less, but I'm about ready, in his third year, to call him a busted pick.

Other candidates for an early(ish) pick ? Since TEs Kendricks and Lewis aren't signed past this year, they may be thinking TE somewhere in rounds 2-4. It's entirely possible there is a double-dip at edge rusher in the same bracket of picks.

I'd not really considered DL seriously as a pick, but on reflection, even if Wilkerson is back next year, mid to mid/late punts on DL and OG seem reasonable.

A WR early might happen, but for that to occur it needs either Cobb to be gone, or that the rooks are not progressing well enough to think of any of them as either starter-level opposite Adams, or starter-level in the slot. This seems unfair on Allison, who is doing everything asked of him, but he isn't a guy that scares anyone, or one that can get separation very easily. I think WR is somewhat unlikely........but possible.

Putting that in some kind of favoured order, though it is far from 'set in stone', I'd go something like
1a) Edge,
1b) S,
2)  Edge
3)  OT, (I went with a later, more developmental pick here, due to Bulaga still improving, after his ACL).
4)  TE,
5)  DL
6) OG
7) Any developmental guy with good athletic traits

All said and done, it is very like danno's picks. My biggest worry with the above scenario is that it is (again) favouring the defense early.
An alternative more offense-focused draft could be: 1a Edge, 1b TE, 2 OT, 3 S, 4 OG, 5 DL, 6&7 high RAS developmental.

I could see Safety as the 2nd highest need. Especially if HHCD doesn't have an all-pro type season and still asks for the moon. He's being paid in excess of $5M this year. If he doesn't play up to that pay grade, I could see them moving on from him and drafting high.

DL will still be a need because Daniels, Clark, and Lowry all hit UFA in 2020. Can't wait until the 2020 draft to get a DL, because they likely lose one of those guys to UFA (my guess is Daniels). Preemptive move.

I don't see TE as that high a need. They kept Robert Tonyan on the 53 man roster for a reason. He has talent. He just need more seasoning, and he would have been sniped off by someone else if they had tried to sneak him through to the PS.
Depending on how they use Lewis, as the season progresses, I could see he him coming back on another one year deal. Kendricks is likely gone, IMO.
UFA in 2019 has several guys that could replace Kendricks, with a better bang-for-buck. But getting someone to develop along with Tonyan would be a smart move, but not in the first 3-4 rounds..............but that's just me.

As for WR, I still say Cobb won't be back. And if so, I could also see Allison move into the slot, provided that one of this years rookies makes a big enough step forward to warrant starting on the outside. Otherwise, I would be in favor of signing an UFA like a Chris Hogan.......or someone along those lines........and put them in the slot and keep Allison outside. He doesn't scare people with his athleticism, but he finds a way to get the job done.

[mancl]

It is important to factor free agency into this picture.  Doesn't seem there is any way Matthews or Cobb are back, freeing up a lot of money.  Bulaga and HHCD could also be gone freeing up even more.  Kendricks and Lewis are likely gone but there is not of money involved with them. 

Of course there is so much we don't know but everyone I think agrees that getting a pass rusher is the number 1 priority.  You can't get a top flight pass rusher in free agency without over paying by a lot.  # 2 in the draft would be DL because Clark and Daniels are both Free agents in 2020 and this should be an exceptional year for D linemen.

I would look for an OT and safety in free agency because you can get one without overpaying.

Toyan should take Kendricks slot next year. I'd keep Graham for another year but look to the draft for his replacement in 2 years.

[scoremore]

Cobb, Bulaga, Matthews, and Dix?  Man I really don't want to lose all of these guys.  I am hoping we can bring them all back.  We have enough needs as it is without creating new ones.  Dix will have to get paid if we want to keep him.  Bulaga is still under contract isn't he?  Matthews and Cobb are aging Vets and we should be able to bring them back at reasonable salaries.   Always a risk some team come in and overpays and we lose out.  Both are still good players we should make an effort to retain them if possible. 

[dannobanano]

I see Bulaga back next year, but have serious doubts about any of the rest. Pride will keep CM3, Cobb, and HHCD from accepting less than any of them think they are worth...............and they all think they are worth a lot.

Safety is where I think Gute will make a play this off-season, rather than OLB. Then he could draft another one in the 5th-7th rounds. Players like Zedrick Woods/Ole Miss or Chase Hansen/Utah.