October 15, 2018, 03:17:50 PM

Author Topic: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy  (Read 1350 times)

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Offline Divot

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2018, 04:53:23 PM »
Look at the Saints offense or the Rams offense.  If ARod was on either of those teams they would be dropping 600 yards per game.  McCarthy's days are numbered, he has been riding the coattails of good QBs long enough.

Offline RT

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2018, 06:53:12 PM »
The offense is going to be fine, it is the little things that are stopping them. An untimely penalty here, a drop pass there and the drive is halted. Simple things that can be cleaned up. Now if you are a drama queen in bad need of your weekly drama, with the defense pitching a shutout this week I guess the offense is where your sky is falling. So please do carry on.     

Offline B

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2018, 07:25:51 PM »
The offense is going to be fine, it is the little things that are stopping them. An untimely penalty here, a drop pass there and the drive is halted. Simple things that can be cleaned up. Now if you are a drama queen in bad need of your weekly drama, with the defense pitching a shutout this week I guess the offense is where your sky is falling. So please do carry on.   

 goodpost RT

Divot do you really believe a one-legged Aaron Rodgers would be putting up 600 yards with the Saints and the Rams? Come on man! You are a way better poster than that.

And BTW Drew Brees, who will break Peyton's records is being pretty dissed by your assertion.
The Green Bay Packers never lost a football game.
They just ran out of time.
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Offline packdaddy

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 04:16:34 AM »
First it was "R-E-L-A-X"

Then it was "run the table"

Both mantras worked.

Perhaps "terrible" will have the same effect and become the next catalyst.

Offline skcusICH

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 05:34:53 AM »
In no way is my post here meant to be negative or criticizing about Aaron Rodgers. It’s more of just an observation of production over the last several years and where the offense has gone for this reason or that.

Rodgers had eight 300 yard games in the 2014 regular season. Since then, he has played 43 regular season games, 42 if you discount getting knocked out of the Vikings game early. He has a total of twelve 300 yard games over that 42 game span. It certainly hasn’t been a matter of less opportunity, but more a decline in production. 7.01 yards per attempt is what has been achieved over the past 42 games that he has played. That yards per attempt average is a mark that is going to put a QB in the mid pack and worse in any given modern passing game season. It’s a long ways off his 8.27 YPA mark that he posted during the 2008 through 2014 seasons. That is a mark that will either lead the league, or at worst, be top 5 in any given season.

The passing attempts have increased substantially when comparing 2008 through 2014 versus 2015 through present. In 2015, Aaron set a then career high with 572 pass attempts. He would up that total to 610 in 2016, and then was on pace for 605 in 2017 before breaking the collarbone vs. Minnesota. A quarter way through 2018, he is on pace to set another career high in attempts with 624. The 2014 season saw just 520 attempts and he never went over 552 up to that point in his career. The 2014 completion percentage (65.6%) was not far and away better than his 2015 through 2018 rate either (63.52%).

The league wide average yards per attempt has stayed pretty similar over Aaron’s career, so I don’t think his change in stats can be attributed to the NFL passing game changing or evolving. League average has been between 6.9 and 7.3 over his career and appears to be slowly trending upwards over the course of his career. Yet, Aaron’s average has substantially dropped in the last 4 years. Lack of a deep threat, a change in philosophy, taking avoiding the INT to the extreme, WR depth, stale offensive system, QB decline? Choose your theory, but at the end of the day, this isn’t a top of the league offense and hasn’t consistently been one for 4 years now. The QB rating has fallen off, the QBR rating has fallen off, and the yards per completion have fallen off.

Football Outsiders puts together a report of routes ran and efficiency. It’s a telling story with the Packers’ offense. Last year, they all but abandoned the seam route, the post, the flag, the dig, and the drag (both Rodgers and Hundley broken down separately). The offense primarily consists of outs, hitches, comebacks, slants, screens, and broken plays. I’m not a defensive expert, but I’d have to wager that eliminating half of the route tree makes game planning substantially easier for a defensive coordinator. One example of abandonment is that Aaron threw 9 seam routes in 2016 and 2017 combined. You’d be a fool to think opposing defenses don’t know that tidbit and play to this.

His production on broken plays continues to be average at best when comparing numbers to the rest of the league. However, his pass attempts on broken plays dwarfs the rest of the league. Not a good combo there for offensive efficiency and sustaining drives.

I think Aaron Rodgers is a man of many facial expressions. Those facial expressions tend to be fairly easy to read on him and the TV cameras are always there to pick them up. On more than several occasions this season, they’ve picked up some big time rolling of the eyes as the play call appears to be coming in through the helmet. Just an observation, but certainly an interesting one.

One can point at the lack of seam routes, posts, etc. as a lack of proper personnel for those routes. This leads to the draft. I’m not arguing the draft direction the last X number of years, or that they should have drafted this guy over that guy. I tend to agree that in the moment, many of those top draft picks needed to go in the defensive direction and that finding quality OL is crucial. What that has led to though, is just 1 offensive skill position selection (3rd round – Ty Montgomery) in the top 3 rounds over the last 4 years. The league is full of young offensive playmakers on their rookie deals and the Packers don’t possess any. Aaron Jones is looking like a nice find out of the 5th round, but the subject here is top end draft investment. The problem is amplified when you take note that they really haven’t hit on anybody at the back of the draft either. Until the recent promising selection of Aaron Jones, James Starks and Andrew Quarless have been the best finds in rounds 5-7 over Aaron Rodgers’s career.

Taking this further, since Aaron Rodgers became the starter, the lack of long term results that the draft picks on skill position offensive players has produced is concerning. 2008 saw Jordy Nelson (2nd) and Jermichael Finley (3rd). 2011 was Randall Cobb (2nd) and Alex Green (3rd). 2013 brought in Eddie Lacy (2nd) and Jonathan Franklin (4th). 2014 produced Davante Adams (2nd) and Richard Rodgers (3rd). The 2015 selection was Ty Montgomery (3rd). 2016 was Jamal Williams (4th) and 2017 was J’Mon Moore (4th). Recent drafts are really trending towards a lack of playmakers. Over this time period, the Packers made 49 selections in rounds 1-4 over the course of 11 drafts. Of those 49 picks, 11 were offensive weapons for Aaron Rodgers. That’s a nice clean average of 1 per year. Unfortunately, Finley and Franklin were lost to career ending injuries and Lacy didn’t have the drive to sustain a career. Those three instances really have a huge impact. Nelson obviously had a great career and was part of the potent offenses in Green Bay. Unfortunately age/injuries/business led to his release. A. Green and R. Rodgers weren’t good enough. Montgomery has barely been available. That leaves us with Adams, Cobb, Williams, and Moore. There’s large debate over the value of Cobb, but I think it can clearly be agreed upon that he isn’t a feared player in the league or a guy defensive coordinators really worry about. Williams is a 3 yards and a cloud of dust back who likely has stayed on the field due primarily to pass protection and availability. Moore is still a youngster with question marks that won’t be answered in the immediate future. That leaves Adams. Great player, but again, not someone who is largely feared around the league. The lack of top end speed has shown up on tape on more than a few occasions. He’s not a game breaker or a guy who can change an offense. He is though, a tremendously great piece to a puzzle. Phenomenal off the line, in and out of breaks, and working as a possession receiver.

Unfortunately, Green Bay lacks the other pieces to the puzzle. A scat back, a vertical TE, and a deep threat WR has been missing. In 2014, Jordy was that deep threat and James Starks (and even Lacy) was brilliant in the passing game. With those puzzle pieces gone and not being replaced through the draft, free agency becomes a must. That obviously has not happened over the years, outside of the TE attempts over the last 3 seasons. Jimmy Graham is a nice addition and certainly got me excited for the offense, but I think it’s also clear that he indeed doesn’t move as well as he used to. Through this reason or that, the offensive success has been primarily placed on the shoulders of #12. When looking at the past 4 years of offensive investments, the future isn’t looking ideal if things remain status quo. We’re counting on a mid-round WR to step up and become a weapon. Is the 2019 draft the year for offensive help? We’re looking at needing future high investments at the critical positions of RT and OLB due to age and injury concerns. What if Clinton-Dix wants out of town due to the fans constantly ragging on him or simply takes a better offer? Huge hole at safety.

My opinion is that the offensive decline has been a combination of the front office not providing the weapons through whatever means necessary, McCarthy being stubborn with his offensive philosophy, and Rodgers always looking for the bigger play and his unwillingness to play with young WR’s. Then they all point the finger at each other. Seemingly more often than not, Green Bay seems unable to click for more than 30 minutes of football at a time. If Rodgers is playing great, his WR’s are dropping passes. If the WR’s are getting open, Rodgers is not seeing them or missing them on some throws. If McCarthy is calling a great game, the team is making mental miscues with penalties and execution. It’s been awhile since it all came together for a complete game both offensively and defensively. I hope it does, because it’s fun to watch when it does.

Offline RT

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2018, 07:38:01 AM »
Quality post, thanks for the time and effort you took to gather factual information.

Agree that the Packers offense has not been elite in some time and I believe you have touched on some of the reasons why. Is MM the Dom Capers of the offense? Year after year I would look at the talent on the defensive side of the ball going into training camp and feel like they were a very deep unit and then the games would begin and they would fall on their faces. Yet these same players that looked like clowns under Capers leave and become Pro Bowl players elsewhere. Should be telling that it was not a lack of talent provided by the front office. Enter Pettine and with many of the same players, they are put in positions to best take advantage of their skillsets and maximize the units performance. The difference is already night and day.

As great as Rodgers is, does the opposing teams defense know that he is unwilling to throw to some of his targets? This would allow defenders to cheat to some targets and leave others exposed one-on-one without concern. Don't really know, but possible.

As for draft capital spent on offensive skill players being a cause, I don't agree with that. Draft statis aside the talent on offense is more than well enough stocked to be a top 10 offense and I do expect them to be that when the season is done.

Their are questions concerning the offense, but all and all I do not have the same feeling watching them as I did watching the Capers lead defenses. MM is stubborn without doubt and Rodgers may be equally so, but the talent and ability is there to excel and I believe they are close. We have seen Rodgers be vocal in the past and on almost all occasions it has lead to a much improved offensive output. Here's to a breakout offensive game against the Lions this weekend.

Offline B

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2018, 03:23:04 PM »
Aaron Rodgers: I have a great relationship with Mike

“We have a great relationship,” Rodgers said, via video from the Green Bay Press Gazette. “There’s always been great communication between us even if there are things that we need to talk about that are tough subjects. We’ve never had a problem finding time and talking. That’s the way it’s been for 10-plus years."

“For any relationship, it starts with good communication. You’ve got to be honest with each other and then hug it out afterward. That’s what Mike always says: Conflict is good. You’ve got to keep the conversation going.”

“We’ve got to find ways to be more efficient on offense,” Rodgers said. “Like I said Sunday afternoon, the numbers might have looked good — 420 yards. 50 percent-plus on third down — [but] the execution wasn’t where it needs to be. I’m always going to hold myself and this offense to a higher standard. I’ve got to play better, and as a team we’ve got to play better"
The Green Bay Packers never lost a football game.
They just ran out of time.
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Offline mtsportsfan

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2018, 05:29:39 PM »
In no way is my post here meant to be negative or criticizing about Aaron Rodgers. It’s more of just an observation of production over the last several years and where the offense has gone for this reason or that.

Rodgers had eight 300 yard games in the 2014 regular season. Since then, he has played 43 regular season games, 42 if you discount getting knocked out of the Vikings game early. He has a total of twelve 300 yard games over that 42 game span. It certainly hasn’t been a matter of less opportunity, but more a decline in production. 7.01 yards per attempt is what has been achieved over the past 42 games that he has played. That yards per attempt average is a mark that is going to put a QB in the mid pack and worse in any given modern passing game season. It’s a long ways off his 8.27 YPA mark that he posted during the 2008 through 2014 seasons. That is a mark that will either lead the league, or at worst, be top 5 in any given season.

The passing attempts have increased substantially when comparing 2008 through 2014 versus 2015 through present. In 2015, Aaron set a then career high with 572 pass attempts. He would up that total to 610 in 2016, and then was on pace for 605 in 2017 before breaking the collarbone vs. Minnesota. A quarter way through 2018, he is on pace to set another career high in attempts with 624. The 2014 season saw just 520 attempts and he never went over 552 up to that point in his career. The 2014 completion percentage (65.6%) was not far and away better than his 2015 through 2018 rate either (63.52%).

The league wide average yards per attempt has stayed pretty similar over Aaron’s career, so I don’t think his change in stats can be attributed to the NFL passing game changing or evolving. League average has been between 6.9 and 7.3 over his career and appears to be slowly trending upwards over the course of his career. Yet, Aaron’s average has substantially dropped in the last 4 years. Lack of a deep threat, a change in philosophy, taking avoiding the INT to the extreme, WR depth, stale offensive system, QB decline? Choose your theory, but at the end of the day, this isn’t a top of the league offense and hasn’t consistently been one for 4 years now. The QB rating has fallen off, the QBR rating has fallen off, and the yards per completion have fallen off.

Football Outsiders puts together a report of routes ran and efficiency. It’s a telling story with the Packers’ offense. Last year, they all but abandoned the seam route, the post, the flag, the dig, and the drag (both Rodgers and Hundley broken down separately). The offense primarily consists of outs, hitches, comebacks, slants, screens, and broken plays. I’m not a defensive expert, but I’d have to wager that eliminating half of the route tree makes game planning substantially easier for a defensive coordinator. One example of abandonment is that Aaron threw 9 seam routes in 2016 and 2017 combined. You’d be a fool to think opposing defenses don’t know that tidbit and play to this.

His production on broken plays continues to be average at best when comparing numbers to the rest of the league. However, his pass attempts on broken plays dwarfs the rest of the league. Not a good combo there for offensive efficiency and sustaining drives.

I think Aaron Rodgers is a man of many facial expressions. Those facial expressions tend to be fairly easy to read on him and the TV cameras are always there to pick them up. On more than several occasions this season, they’ve picked up some big time rolling of the eyes as the play call appears to be coming in through the helmet. Just an observation, but certainly an interesting one.

One can point at the lack of seam routes, posts, etc. as a lack of proper personnel for those routes. This leads to the draft. I’m not arguing the draft direction the last X number of years, or that they should have drafted this guy over that guy. I tend to agree that in the moment, many of those top draft picks needed to go in the defensive direction and that finding quality OL is crucial. What that has led to though, is just 1 offensive skill position selection (3rd round – Ty Montgomery) in the top 3 rounds over the last 4 years. The league is full of young offensive playmakers on their rookie deals and the Packers don’t possess any. Aaron Jones is looking like a nice find out of the 5th round, but the subject here is top end draft investment. The problem is amplified when you take note that they really haven’t hit on anybody at the back of the draft either. Until the recent promising selection of Aaron Jones, James Starks and Andrew Quarless have been the best finds in rounds 5-7 over Aaron Rodgers’s career.

Taking this further, since Aaron Rodgers became the starter, the lack of long term results that the draft picks on skill position offensive players has produced is concerning. 2008 saw Jordy Nelson (2nd) and Jermichael Finley (3rd). 2011 was Randall Cobb (2nd) and Alex Green (3rd). 2013 brought in Eddie Lacy (2nd) and Jonathan Franklin (4th). 2014 produced Davante Adams (2nd) and Richard Rodgers (3rd). The 2015 selection was Ty Montgomery (3rd). 2016 was Jamal Williams (4th) and 2017 was J’Mon Moore (4th). Recent drafts are really trending towards a lack of playmakers. Over this time period, the Packers made 49 selections in rounds 1-4 over the course of 11 drafts. Of those 49 picks, 11 were offensive weapons for Aaron Rodgers. That’s a nice clean average of 1 per year. Unfortunately, Finley and Franklin were lost to career ending injuries and Lacy didn’t have the drive to sustain a career. Those three instances really have a huge impact. Nelson obviously had a great career and was part of the potent offenses in Green Bay. Unfortunately age/injuries/business led to his release. A. Green and R. Rodgers weren’t good enough. Montgomery has barely been available. That leaves us with Adams, Cobb, Williams, and Moore. There’s large debate over the value of Cobb, but I think it can clearly be agreed upon that he isn’t a feared player in the league or a guy defensive coordinators really worry about. Williams is a 3 yards and a cloud of dust back who likely has stayed on the field due primarily to pass protection and availability. Moore is still a youngster with question marks that won’t be answered in the immediate future. That leaves Adams. Great player, but again, not someone who is largely feared around the league. The lack of top end speed has shown up on tape on more than a few occasions. He’s not a game breaker or a guy who can change an offense. He is though, a tremendously great piece to a puzzle. Phenomenal off the line, in and out of breaks, and working as a possession receiver.

Unfortunately, Green Bay lacks the other pieces to the puzzle. A scat back, a vertical TE, and a deep threat WR has been missing. In 2014, Jordy was that deep threat and James Starks (and even Lacy) was brilliant in the passing game. With those puzzle pieces gone and not being replaced through the draft, free agency becomes a must. That obviously has not happened over the years, outside of the TE attempts over the last 3 seasons. Jimmy Graham is a nice addition and certainly got me excited for the offense, but I think it’s also clear that he indeed doesn’t move as well as he used to. Through this reason or that, the offensive success has been primarily placed on the shoulders of #12. When looking at the past 4 years of offensive investments, the future isn’t looking ideal if things remain status quo. We’re counting on a mid-round WR to step up and become a weapon. Is the 2019 draft the year for offensive help? We’re looking at needing future high investments at the critical positions of RT and OLB due to age and injury concerns. What if Clinton-Dix wants out of town due to the fans constantly ragging on him or simply takes a better offer? Huge hole at safety.

My opinion is that the offensive decline has been a combination of the front office not providing the weapons through whatever means necessary, McCarthy being stubborn with his offensive philosophy, and Rodgers always looking for the bigger play and his unwillingness to play with young WR’s. Then they all point the finger at each other. Seemingly more often than not, Green Bay seems unable to click for more than 30 minutes of football at a time. If Rodgers is playing great, his WR’s are dropping passes. If the WR’s are getting open, Rodgers is not seeing them or missing them on some throws. If McCarthy is calling a great game, the team is making mental miscues with penalties and execution. It’s been awhile since it all came together for a complete game both offensively and defensively. I hope it does, because it’s fun to watch when it does.
that was a fantastic post, what a great read. Have to say though, it has been difficult to add top end talent in the draft, considering that we always draft at the back end. Considering that during Ted's  tenure he rarely used free agency. We almost had to hit on all of our picks , which is almost impossible to do. Thanks again for the great post.

Offline phanatic1

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2018, 06:03:39 PM »
That is great information.  It just seems like yesterday that the we would see Jordy going to the post as Rodgers rolled out the backside of the pocket - had an extra protector - and launched it to Jordy 5 yards ahead of everyone.  And really, it seems like the most success we have in the passing game now is the broken play where Rodgers is able to break contain and make a street ball play where guys just take off. 

I can't believe that with all of the times I have heard MM talk about self scout, he does not see the inconsistencies of the passing route tree.  We really do not threaten teams from sideline to sideline or vertically.  It just appears MM has not advanced onto the philosophy of today.  Watching the Saints against the Giants the other day, Aikman diagramed a play from behind the offense showing how Peyton has developed as a play caller.  It involved Michael Thomas in a 3x1 set - he was the outside receiver.  The Saints typically would run him deep along the sideline, the middle guy would run an out cut and the inside guy would cross.  But, Peyton had Thomas run the cross from the outside, the middle guy ran deep and the inside guy ran the out.  It lead to a natural pick and a break from their tendency. And, a long third down conversion. 

I don't see a lot of creativity with the offense and too much of a reliance on Rodgers just making plays.  I do agree that passing on some high end playmakers at WR has hurt this team.  I to thought Jimmy Graham was going to be a difference maker and maybe he will, but right now, it feels like he is kind of out of place.  It would be great to see him run a seam route a couple of times a game. 

The comparison of MM being to the offense what Capers was to the defense is an interesting one.  Never really thought of it that way, but that seems like a fair one. 

Offline skcusICH

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2018, 07:22:46 PM »
I'd just like to clear up one thing about my post that perhaps left it open for confusion. The whole route trees are being ran, they're just not being thrown.

Offline skcusICH

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2018, 07:27:17 PM »
@B

Thanks for sharing the latest Aaron Rodgers quotes.

I think everyone can appreciate the honesty there. I just wish he would have thrown himself under the bus also immediately following the game. He missed a lot of routine throws.

Offline craig

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #26 on: October 03, 2018, 08:26:15 PM »
Thanks for thoughtful post and analysis, sk. 

RT, I don't think I agree with you about the offensive talent being stocked.  I think it's well-below average apart from Rodgers, and is totally dependent on Rodgers.  With every draft committed to defense, I think the decline of talent on offense is definite. 

Offline Shinesman

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #27 on: October 03, 2018, 09:38:27 PM »
Im glad to see that people are finally acknowledging that MM is a stale chip in the bag of NFL playcallers/coaches. Im just surprised it took this long.
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Offline Premontre1969

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #28 on: October 04, 2018, 03:13:54 AM »
 I’m still not convinced there’s a problem between AR and MM. But, if true, I worry that would stem from the mass adulation showered on a talented but emotionally immature young man.
 I only know what I read in the papers. If AR doesn’t get along with his family that’s a big worry. The superhero is supposed to be the strong force that would hold the family together. It sounds as if that power is used to do the opposite. That would be a crying shame and a red flag for the Packers family.
 AR obviously holds great power in the organization by virtue of his importance as a player. He could be a coaches dream as well as his worst nightmare. Is AR mature enough to know when to practice and when to support his organization? He will need that wisdom to be the biggest part of a championship team.
 

Offline B

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Re: Rodgers doesn't like McCarthy
« Reply #29 on: October 04, 2018, 05:09:34 AM »
I’m still not convinced there’s a problem between AR and MM.

And Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy would agree, as both declare adamantly that they have a GREAT working relationship.

Like all coaches MM has his edges and growth areas. Having said that it is worthy of note that:

 -- of the 494 NFL coaches in history Mike ranks 28th

 -- ranking of active NFL coaches Mike ranks 4th:
 ... -- 3. Belichick 24 yrs,  372 games, 252-120-0, .677
 ... - 10. Reid 20 yrs, 308 games, 187-120-1, .609
 ... - 26. Lewis 16 yrs, 244 games, 128-113-3, .532
 ... - 28. McCarthy 13 yrs 196 games, 123-71-2, .633
 ... - 32. Tomlin 12 yrs 180 games, 117-62-1, .653
 ... - 34. Carroll, 13 yrs, 196 games, 114-81-1, .581
 ... - 39. Payton 12 yrs, 180 games, 108-72-0, 600
 ... - 43. Harbaugh 11 yrs, 164 games, 97-67-0, .591
The Green Bay Packers never lost a football game.
They just ran out of time.
-Vince Lombardi