January 18, 2019, 06:33:55 AM

Author Topic: My plan. What is yours?  (Read 1660 times)

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Offline te43

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2019, 12:54:01 PM »
I could be wrong in my interpretation but am I correct that if we release Mike Daniels this offseason we would save 8.5 million (Dead cap vs cap hit).  If that's the case it's a near no brainer for me to let him go

Offline dannobanano

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2019, 01:30:21 PM »
#1 - Hire a coach.
HC - Josh McDaniels (Since Murphy's guy took himself out last night after the Bowl Game) Dan Campbell (still waiting on Ken Whisenhunt to be added to list)
DC - Mike Pettine Kevin Greene
OC - Alex Van Pelt
ST / OLB - Kevin Greene Brant Boyer

Free agency - Packer free agents. Re-sign.
UFA - Breeland CM3
RFA - Allison
ERFA - Tonyan, Kumerow, McCray, Patrick, Gilbert, Donnerson. Donnerson is under contract through 2019

Cut / Let go: (or not resigned)
Perry too much dead money. wait one more year
Graham
Lewis
Kizer He's still cheap on rookie contract. Draft next QB/Potential AR Heir in 2020
Kendricks Bring him back as veteran insurance on a one year deal if he's willing
Cobb
Matthews
Bulaga



UFA I would be interested in pursuing. Cannot sign them all but a few would be nice. Best guess at salary.
CB - Breeland (You just resigned him above)?
TE - Jared Cook
S - Tre Boston Tyrann Mathieu
LB- CM3 as ILB
RT-Bobbie Massie (CHI)
WR-Golden Tate (replaces Cobb)

Draft
Pick 12:
Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan .................Zach Allen/3-4 DE; Boston College

Pick 32:
Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama ..............Chris Lindstrom/RG; Boston College Plug & Play from day 1
Picked to replace Bulaga eventually

Pick 44:
Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern ...........Jaylon Ferguson/3-4 Edge-Rush OLB; Louisiana Tech
He is better than Kizer.

Pick 76:
Isaiah Simmons, S, Clemson ...............Andre Dillard/OT; Washington State

Pick 108:
Kendall Blanton, TE, Missouri ..............Kenny Willekes/3-4 Edge-Rush OLB; Michigan St

Pick 112:
Anthony Nelson, DE, Iowa ...............Joejuan Williams/CB; Vanderbilt

Pick 140:
Khalil Hodge, OLB, Buffalo ...............Chase Hansen/S-ILB; Utah (Hybrid 220 lb seek and destroy player)

Pick 172:
Zack Bailey, G, South Carolina .......... Darrell Henderson/RB; Memphis

Pick 184:
Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon ..............Olive Sagapolu/NT-DT; Wisconsin

Pick 204:
Cody Thompson, WR, Toledo ................Mitchell Wilcox/TE; South Florida
« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 01:37:00 PM by dannobanano »

Offline dannobanano

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #17 on: January 01, 2019, 01:35:00 PM »
I could be wrong in my interpretation but am I correct that if we release Mike Daniels this offseason we would save 8.5 million (Dead cap vs cap hit).  If that's the case it's a near no brainer for me to let him go

$2.4M - Dead Money

$8.3M cap savings

His cap number is $10.7M. What would be dead money is the final year of his pro-rata signing bonus.

So, Yeah...............he could be in play for either a pay cut/restructure, or out right release.

Probably depends on the HC and DC that they sign to determine if they want him or not.

Offline skcusICH

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #18 on: January 01, 2019, 10:52:27 PM »
But that is the chance you always take.  You never know.  I go back to when they let Rivera and Wahle go.  They both had started the downward slide and while everyone was up in arms about it, they were replaced by two guys that became top tier guards.  Bulaga is in the same spot.  His best years are behind him and the injury history is pretty extensive.  He has been a warrior on the OL, but his value no longer meets his performance.  I hate to see him go, but it is in the best interest of the team right now.  For me, I would rather see him retire and go out a Packer. 

As far as Matthews, I am sure he sees his value much more than what it actually is.  He has become a master of being near the ball, but getting himself away from contact.  I could be wrong here, but it seems every rush he has had the past 2 weeks was always wide and outside the tackle and nothing inside where he would see a guard waiting for him.  I don't see him becoming the answer to play alongside Martinez inside.  Fackrell and Gilbert are more productive at this point.  Neither though is the answer and that is why I would like to see Gute pursue Ansah or Dee Ford. 

Finding the right time to move on from a mainstay is tough.  I think letting Jordy Nelson was a mistake last year.  But, I get the rationale for doing it though.  This team needs upgrades all over the place and that begins by letting go aging vets.

I think your memory on the Rivera/Whale situation is a little hazy. The guard spot was a disaster for a number of years with players like Adrian Klemm, Will Whitticker, Junius Coston, Tony Moll, Jason Spitz, and Daryn Colledge. Perhaps the guard spot was solidified by 2009 with Sitton and Colledge starting, but it was 2011 before Lang took over for the often criticized play of Colledge. The team threw a lot of draft picks at that trying to fix it. Your point stands, but at the same time, I think the Packers have been trying to replace Bulaga. The results just haven't been there with Spriggs, Murphy, and Bell. Why is the next draft pick going to be different? Tough to let a critical position go with no clear solution, especially when we go against Danielle Hunter and Kahlil Mack for 25% of the season.

Offline RT

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #19 on: January 02, 2019, 06:11:14 AM »
It seems like I am in a minority on Bulaga- ( I am indifferent on keeping Clay)  I am fine with the thought of moving on from Bulaga but am not as convinced as others are that you can find a replacement given the poor state of OT's in the draft and in free agency.


You are in the minority on Bulaga, but not alone in thinking he will be kept. Yes he does miss time with injuries, but when he plays he is one of the best RT's in the NFL. He started 14 of 16 games this year and has a 5.8M salary for the final year of his contract. People can talk about the savings of cutting him, but what about replacement cost? The Packers will find no one close to him for that investment on the free agent market,if at all (teams are not letting quality OT hit the street without their being a reason). They will draft someone to compete with Spriggs and others and if that fails to produce the starter for 2020 and beyond, well then they will probably be forced into the free agent market next year.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #20 on: January 02, 2019, 07:50:10 AM »
A Bryan Bulaga that’s at 100% is easily better than anyone who might be available in the free agency market.

But ask yourself this........How often in the last 3 yrs has Bulaga played any stretch of games at 100%?

If he’s at 75%-80% most of the time, which is likely, then he’s not any better than what’s available in free agency, and certainly isn’t worth the $5.8M he’s scheduled to be paid next year.

Offline docker57

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #21 on: January 02, 2019, 08:58:12 AM »
New poster here. Actually, I'm a retread.

This topic has been pretty well covered and addressed. I would add that it'd be nice to have a HC with some fire. That's why I always loved Kevin Green. I'd like to see an offense implemented that properly utilizes our players' talents(remember YAC anyone?). We got 'figured out' late in the 2011 season and we didn't stay ahead of the curve, as noticed in a number of playoff humiliations. The HC, OC and QBC also have to reign Rodgers in. I don't know if the 'Hail Mary' phenomenon took on a life of it's own, but I'm tired of seeing guys open at 15 yards on 2nd and 3rd and 12 while AR chucks it 40 yards downfield(see latest Bears game following the fumble recovery). I've utilized my DVR quite a bit this season and it's not only alarming-it's sickening. Aaron-your amazing stats are not equating wins. Plus, all those deep drops seem to generate a lot of throwaways and they sure as hell aren't improving your health.

O-line
O-line
O-line
See Tom Brady,'nuff said.

Cut the dead wood, some will hurt a little. we all know who they are. Our depth needs addressing, as well. I'm seeing a number of teams succeed with backup QBs, just never us. Draft the next guy NOW. We're one concussion away from needing him.................................

Our defensive middle has been a liability for years-fix it.

Special teams needs overhaul. Strength and conditioning has been a farce since I posted here 15 years ago-definitely fix that. I guess my greatest apprehension is relying on a front office that would allow their fragile franchise player to be exposed the way AR was these last few weeks. Sit him. Don't care. If Rodgers is our guy, there's a pretty simple formula to follow if we're to get back to the top. If not, start over completely. If AR's chance can't be here, let's be adults and move on. He can't be part of a 'five-year plan." Some of this may seem negative but, in sales, it's referred to as 'inspirational dissatisfaction.'

Just turned 61, so I've seen quite a bit. I have one last question. Will the next Mike Holmgren PLEASE step forward.

Offline Bignutz

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2019, 05:20:28 AM »
A Bryan Bulaga that’s at 100% is easily better than anyone who might be available in the free agency market.

But ask yourself this........How often in the last 3 yrs has Bulaga played any stretch of games at 100%?

If he’s at 75%-80% most of the time, which is likely, then he’s not any better than what’s available in free agency, and certainly isn’t worth the $5.8M he’s scheduled to be paid next year.

Exactly thumbsup), we have to upgrade the o line and keep AR on his feet.
“What’s going on out there”

Offline RT

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2019, 06:24:38 AM »
A Bryan Bulaga that’s at 100% is easily better than anyone who might be available in the free agency market.

But ask yourself this........How often in the last 3 yrs has Bulaga played any stretch of games at 100%?

If he’s at 75%-80% most of the time, which is likely, then he’s not any better than what’s available in free agency, and certainly isn’t worth the $5.8M he’s scheduled to be paid next year.

Exactly thumbsup), we have to upgrade the o line and keep AR on his feet.


And you keep AR on his feet by cutting a guy with one of the highest pass blocking win rates in the NFL this year?

https://twitter.com/Peter_Bukowski/status/1075803873816788992

Danno, the Packers may cut him today and I don't know what percentage he is playing at healthwise, but whatever is was it was good enough to be among the best in the NFL this year.   

Offline dannobanano

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2019, 07:44:44 AM »
That’s fine RT.
I guess you and I are viewing Bulaga through a different lens.

You are seeing how he did this year, despite the injuries.

I viewing it through an age/injury/cost lens and how that may impact his future performance.

The old adage has been “It’s better to move on from a player a year early rather than a year late.”

It reminds me of when Ted let Marco Rivera go in FA after he had been a warrior and played through injuries for GB. Before he played a single down for DAL he blew out his back and was never right afterwards. It finished his career.

Bryan’s injury history is going to catch up with him at some point. I just would be reluctant to bet almost $6M that it’s not next year.

Offline The GM

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2019, 08:11:33 AM »
Whether we keep Bulaga next year or not can be debated.  We do need to find his eventual replacement in this upcoming FA period or the draft.  I wouldnt rule out a O Tackle with the 11th pick.  If he can sit behind Bulaga for a year...Great!!!

Online craig

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #26 on: January 03, 2019, 09:59:57 AM »
Agree, GM.  I think we need to do 3, or maybe 4, things.
1.  Pay a veteran RT at some cost.  My recommendation would be to just stick with Bulaga, and hope he can stay healthy enough to play effectively this year, at least at the start.
2.  Draft an OT pretty high.  (2nd day if not 1st).  Hopefully you'll draft smart, and he'll be ready to replace Bulaga. 
3.  Sign a veteran FA guard to plug that hole for at least this year.
4.  Maybe spend a second draft choice, 3rd day, on another OL who might become the long-term RG. 

Personally I think it totally makes sense to double-down:  keep Bulaga, but draft a potential replacement early. 
*You've got to draft well, so you'll be positioned to replace Bulaga if/when needed.  If you spend a pick on a bust, obviously nothing solved. 
*Bulaga didn't start at the beginning of his draft year; but by the end of that year he was starting, and playing better than Tauscher. 
*Bulaga is so injury-prone, that counting on "good-when-healthy" is a risky gamble.  But any chance of being a contender depends on getting lucky with some gambles.  If you get lucky and Brian stays healthy, maybe that's one of the lucky things that happens for a team that ends up doing unexpectedly well? 
*Most top guards were promising tackles.  It's not impossible that if you draft a good OL, but Bulaga ends up NOT needing to be replaced, that the good draft pick might solve the guard problem long-term? 
*Dream world: Bulaga is healthy, plays well, warrants being resigned to an extension, and does so for a team-friendly deal.  Ends up being healthier and more productive on his 3rd contract than on his second!  (I'm dreaming, of course!)
*Meanwhile, the 2nd-round OT turns out to look really good, too.  He becomes a stud RG, while also providing good Bulaga/Bakhti injury insurance if/when needed.  Both tackle depth AND RG problem are solved for 2020 and beyond?
*Meanwhile, the 5th round OL also turns out to be quite good.  He provides excellent guard-depth for 2020 and beyond, so that suddenly the line is rich with both starting talent AND depth.  Injury insurance? 
*OK, while I'm dreaming, I guess I may as well dream that Cole Madison shows up strong, quick, and committed, and we end up with shockingly good depth and injury-resilience? 
*Back to the $5.8 on Bulaga.  Unless you want to go with Spriggs, or the 2nd-day pick right out of the box, then if you don't spend the $5.8 on Bulaga, you'll instead need to spend much or all of that on some other vet FA.  I don't know that you'll improve your gamble much.  **If** you sign a $3/1 FA OT, you're saving <$3M, and how likely are you to get a quality healthy OT for $3?  Basically I'm thinking that *IF* you're going to walk Bulaga and replace him with some other FA OT, you're basically going to be replacing some risky gamble with another risky gamble, IMO probably an even worse gamble.  So my guess is that it's probably best to just take the gamble on Bulaga, and hope you get lucky on that gamble. 

I admit I do wonder if Bulaga isn't somewhat overrated.  By RT's source, Bulaga is great; general board view is that Bakhti is great; the board tends to view Linsley and Taylor as variably good and strong too.  Yet, it seems to me that when I actually watch games, I don't see a line that is 4/5 good-excellent!!  I see pressure coming from every direction, I see the tackles folding in fast-and-tight to pinch Rodgers from both ends, and I see the middle getting pushed back and collapsed.  In the running game I never see drive-blocking authority to move the line on short-yardage plays. 

Totally different from the Bears, where Trubisky has forever, and the line is constantly pushing forward in the run game to create safe short-yardage gains.  And they seem great even when a starter is injured and replaced. 

I really think an improved O-line short-term and long is critical to any hopes we have for a consistently good offense, an offense that can work against good defenses like Vikings and Bears, and that allows the creativity we want on offense.   

Offline Bignutz

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #27 on: January 03, 2019, 04:12:24 PM »
A Bryan Bulaga that’s at 100% is easily better than anyone who might be available in the free agency market.

But ask yourself this........How often in the last 3 yrs has Bulaga played any stretch of games at 100%?

If he’s at 75%-80% most of the time, which is likely, then he’s not any better than what’s available in free agency, and certainly isn’t worth the $5.8M he’s scheduled to be paid next year.

Exactly thumbsup), we have to upgrade the o line and keep AR on his feet.


And you keep AR on his feet by cutting a guy with one of the highest pass blocking win rates in the NFL this year?

Yes when healthy. Which is maybe 60% of the time. When he’s hurt he’s useless.

https://twitter.com/Peter_Bukowski/status/1075803873816788992

Danno, the Packers may cut him today and I don't know what percentage he is playing at healthwise, but whatever is was it was good enough to be among the best in the NFL this year.
“What’s going on out there”

Offline footballdad

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #28 on: January 04, 2019, 03:07:54 AM »
Since 2014 Bulaga has averaged 761 snaps per year. This season he played 782. Over the same period of time, soon to be UFA RT - Bobbie Massie from the Bears has started 76 of 80 regular season games and has averaged 987 snaps.
GB will have more cap to spend than Chicago. If they really WANT to upgrade they can. Even without cutting Bulaga.

Offline #66

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Re: My plan. What is yours?
« Reply #29 on: January 04, 2019, 02:37:03 PM »
I apologize.  I posted this to the incorrect thread... 

I am going to try to respond to several posters at once here:

Yes, the old adage is states that it is better to move on from a player a year early rather than a year late.  However, one must consider where that person is in their contract.  Bulaga is in the last year of his deal and is a relative bargain at his position.  When he plays, and I know that is a large condition, he forms half of one of the two best blocking tandems at tackle in the league.  RTs are not readily available on the market AND this is a weak draft at tackle.  Furthermore, there are too many holes to fill to move on from him.

As to Mike Daniels, I personally would be shocked if he was released.  This team needs more players - not fewer.  More dogs - not fewer.  He helped free up other players when he played.  Production elsewhere dropped off when he was injured.  People have posted about a lack of effort and no one can ever say that about Daniels either.

I am not sure that GB looks outside the organization for a WR.  We have heard the term "chemistry" so many times in regards to AR and his WRs.  I am afraid that a FA WR would stunt the development of the players already on the roster while not providing that much production in return.  AR will always have the second stage of any play that is called and this is especially where it is important to have WRs that have a rapport with him.  There are multiple WRs that can play in the slot already on the roster.  Furthermore, there are so many holes on this roster that need to be filled elsewhere.  I just do not see a veteran starter being added to the mix.  I think that this is also addressed in the draft.
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