August 20, 2019, 09:10:09 AM

Author Topic: Initial/Short Analysis of the 2019 Draft for Green Bay  (Read 918 times)

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Offline claymaker

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Initial/Short Analysis of the 2019 Draft for Green Bay
« on: January 18, 2019, 09:10:12 AM »
Draft Capitol

---> Green Bay holds 10 draft picks and are not projected to receive any compensatory picks in 2019. They have multiple picks in rounds 1, 4 and 6.

---> The rough estimation of their total numerical draft value is 2704. Over half of this total value [1790] is comprised of their first round picks.

---> They have picks in every round and IMO have the greatest diversity of picks which will allow them to target and draft players however they wish.

Draft Analysis

---> Their first pick will be more valuable to them than other teams. Due to the amount of defensive talent and QBs in this draft class they will definitely be looking at a blue chip player at #12.

---> Their second 1st round pick will be very valuable in any trade scenario.

---> Their draft position will be ideal for teams looking to trade up, and attractive to teams in the top 10 after the 1st round.


Draft position is key this year. They are out of the top 10 but still top 15, which doesn't make it too expensive to trade up and teams looking to trade up will still have to offer considerable value [best of both worlds.]

With specific needs in mind Green Bay has all the ammunition to solidify them and still create depth with other picks.

Their draft equity is among the highest in the NFL; From my initial analysis their draft equity is similar to teams in the top 5 and even greater than Tampa Bay [2614.]

The highest and most reasonable trade up in the 1st round I can see is @3 with the New York Jets: By trading both 1st round picks, 2nd round, and both 4th round picks, which is a ~200 net loss in draft value for Green Bay. This would be an attractive offer to a team with, respectively, low draft capitol. It's hard to definitively state the details, realistically more value might be needed, but a 200 net gain with 2 first round picks and 4 total is an attractive offer. Not going to elaborate on anymore trades, but this is likely the grandest trade they could make.

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Initial/Short Analysis of the 2019 Draft for Green Bay
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2019, 03:37:36 PM »
One thing you have to remember with that chart is that the 'round' the picks are in goes out of whack as soon as comp picks come in at the end of round three. For example, add seven extra round 3 comps, before you get to round 4, etc.

The best deal I see there (as much as you can predict anything in the draft before it happens) is to use the second of their round four picks, plus their third, to get up to the first pick in round three (or maybe even the last one in round 2). The top of the third is where (on the current Bleacher report big board) good FS guys like Nasir Adderley, Juan Thornhill and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson go. You could do something like going Edge, OT, TE, FS, with the first four picks. You would need another decent veteran safety to fill out the roster, but there are a few that might be available. you could also try moving Josh Jackson to safety, which seems to fit his skillset better, but then that would require further investment in CB.
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Offline croquet

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Re: Initial/Short Analysis of the 2019 Draft for Green Bay
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2019, 08:08:26 PM »
Great work Claymaker!  Thanks. 

IMHO.  Unless there is a top tier talent(that Gute covets) I believe they will entertain offers for picks that will enable them to double dip in Edge or target tight ends, guard, edge and a speedy, quick twitch slot that we have needed for years.  I know it is a lot to ask but I dont want to forget about ILB, safety and right tackle. JEEZ.  Hopefully some of these will be addressed in free agency.

If used properly this draft capital along with the level of cap space could catapult us back into the conversation.