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Offline footballdad

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footballdad last pre free agency mock
« on: January 27, 2019, 07:55:40 AM »
As the roster is currently structured it would appear that the immediate needs for 2019 are edge/olb and free safety. Management has stated that they are happy with the offensive line. They have a big money former all pro at tight end. Young untapped potential galore at wide receiver. Young corners that have shown ability.
Let us take a look ahead to free agency 2020.

UFA: *re-sign depending upon health and performance*

Daniels  DL (31)
Lowry DL (26)*
Bulaga RT (31)
Spriggs RT (26)
Martinez ILB (26)*
Morrison ILB (26)
Fackrell OLB (28)*
Williams CB/FS (37)
Crosby K (35)*

Keeping potential future free agency losses in mind and where the Packers are regarding the salary cap versus other teams:
2019 free agency:
Cut - Jimmy Graham - adds 5.3 million
Cut - Nick Perry - adds 3.3 million
Increases available cap to 41 million

Add: Guess @ avg salary
Baushaud Breeland - 6.5 - CB
Anthony Barr - 11 - Edge/OLB (Would likely step up in Pettin's defense)
Ereck Flowers - 3 - RT (Former 1st round head case - 59 starts in career - durable)
Lance Kendricks - 2.5 - TE

Draft:

1) #12 - T.J. Hockenson TE Iowa - Flying up draft boards. Many have him going in the 10 to 18 range. https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/10/15/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-t-j-hockenson/
1) #30 - Nasir Adderly FS Delaware - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/08/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-nasir-adderley/
2) #44 - David Edwards T Wisconsin - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/08/02/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-david-edwards/
3) #75 - Chase Winovich Edge - Michigan - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/08/02/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-chase-winovich/
4) #107 - Khalihl Hodge - ILB - Buffalo
4) # 111 - Justice Hill - RB - Oklahoma State - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/09/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-justice-hill/
5) # 139 - Jonathan Ledbetter - DT - Georgia
6) # 171 - Lester Cotton - G - Alabama
6) # 180 - Jordan Brown - CB - South Dakota State
7) # 202 - Winston Dimel - FB - UTEP

The only changes for the draft would be that if an edge guy was not signed in free agency, I would look at Ferrell or Sweat @12 and look at TE in the 3rd.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2019, 05:37:39 PM »
Great thought process going through this fbd.

I like how you looked ahead to 2020 as you address 2019.

While I have different choices in some of the players, I appreciate the thought process.

Well done.

Offline Shinesman

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2019, 08:50:20 PM »
As the roster is currently structured it would appear that the immediate needs for 2019 are edge/olb and free safety. Management has stated that they are happy with the offensive line. They have a big money former all pro at tight end. Young untapped potential galore at wide receiver. Young corners that have shown ability.
Let us take a look ahead to free agency 2020.

UFA: *re-sign depending upon health and performance*

Daniels  DL (31)
Lowry DL (26)*
Bulaga RT (31)
Spriggs RT (26)
Martinez ILB (26)*
Morrison ILB (26)
Fackrell OLB (28)*
Williams CB/FS (37)
Crosby K (35)*

Keeping potential future free agency losses in mind and where the Packers are regarding the salary cap versus other teams:
2019 free agency:
Cut - Jimmy Graham - adds 5.3 million
Cut - Nick Perry - adds 3.3 million
Increases available cap to 41 million

Add: Guess @ avg salary
Baushaud Breeland - 6.5 - CB
Anthony Barr - 11 - Edge/OLB (Would likely step up in Pettin's defense)
Ereck Flowers - 3 - RT (Former 1st round head case - 59 starts in career - durable)
Lance Kendricks - 2.5 - TE

Draft:

1) #12 - T.J. Hockenson TE Iowa - Flying up draft boards. Many have him going in the 10 to 18 range. https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/10/15/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-t-j-hockenson/
1) #30 - Nasir Adderly FS Delaware - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/08/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-nasir-adderley/
2) #44 - David Edwards T Wisconsin - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/08/02/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-david-edwards/
3) #75 - Chase Winovich Edge - Michigan - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/08/02/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-chase-winovich/
4) #107 - Khalihl Hodge - ILB - Buffalo
4) # 111 - Justice Hill - RB - Oklahoma State - https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/09/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-justice-hill/
5) # 139 - Jonathan Ledbetter - DT - Georgia
6) # 171 - Lester Cotton - G - Alabama
6) # 180 - Jordan Brown - CB - South Dakota State
7) # 202 - Winston Dimel - FB - UTEP

The only changes for the draft would be that if an edge guy was not signed in free agency, I would look at Ferrell or Sweat @12 and look at TE in the 3rd.

You want to cut Perry, and didnt see Matthew's as a resign. And hope we sign a FA and if not depend onto rookies, one who would be a 3rd rounder or later?
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Offline footballdad

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2019, 02:34:10 AM »
Thanks db.

Shinesman.....please read the last line in the post. Also, see below for a statistical breakdown for the past season.

Matthews - GS 16 / Snaps 756 / Sacks 3.5 / Tackles 43 / Sack % per snap .466 / Tackle % per snap 5.7 /  - salary 2018 - $11,400,000 / age 33
Perry - GS 9 / Snaps 300 / Sacks 1.5 / Tackles 24 / Sack % per snap .5 / Tackle % per snap 8 /  - salary 2019 - $14,437,500 / age 28
Gilbert - GS 0 / Snaps 487 / Sacks 2.5 / Tackles 37 / Sack % per snap .51 / Tackle % per snap 7.59 / - salary 2018 - $480,000 - age 25

Worst case scenario - Packers find zero pass rushers in free agency or the draft. Are forced to start Gilbert. End up with slightly better or no worse production and save upwards of $20,000,000 to use elsewhere. Tell me where I'm wrong.
By the numbers, with Gilbert playing 756 snaps - 3.5 / 4 sacks and 57 tackles.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2019, 04:26:40 AM »
If the Packers dip into FA for an OLB, my guess is it won't be Barr. He fits a 4-3 better than a 3-4. If there was a possibility of a FA OLB, I'd look to Justin Smith from WASH. Packer new LB coach Olivadotti has coached him since he came into the league. He might be the only FA OLB the Packers entertain thoughts of signing.

As much as I like Hockenson, #12 is way too high to take him. Trade back to #20 range, and then let's talk.

I get the feeling the first two picks will be defense. Remains to be seen if Bosa, Allen, and Ferrell are all gone by #12. Could give GB a choice between Polite and Ferrell at #12, and many hope Devin White is still on the board. Sweat and Burns could be in the mix if they trade back a few spots.

Second 1st round pick could be either an OL or S. David Edwards is off my radar completely at this point. He did not look good in his week at the Senior Bowl. Lindstrom or Risner could be in play at #30, as could Safety Juan Thornhill.

Here's a list of the OLB's currently on the Packer roster.
Clay Matthews
Nick Perry
Kyler Fackrell
Kendall Donnerson
Reggie Gilbert
Brady Sheldon

Matthews may be lost to FA, unless they convince him to take less than 1/2 what he got paid in 2018, and maybe have to move to ILB as well. If that happens, it reduces the likelyhood of letting Perry go as a cut/trade, unless they splash sign an OLB in UFA. Regardless, we might still see Gute draft 2 OLB's this year. The position has been ignored so long that they will likely over-address it this year like they have done with CB (more than once).

Offline Shinesman

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2019, 03:45:21 PM »
Thanks db.

Shinesman.....please read the last line in the post. Also, see below for a statistical breakdown for the past season.

Matthews - GS 16 / Snaps 756 / Sacks 3.5 / Tackles 43 / Sack % per snap .466 / Tackle % per snap 5.7 /  - salary 2018 - $11,400,000 / age 33
Perry - GS 9 / Snaps 300 / Sacks 1.5 / Tackles 24 / Sack % per snap .5 / Tackle % per snap 8 /  - salary 2019 - $14,437,500 / age 28
Gilbert - GS 0 / Snaps 487 / Sacks 2.5 / Tackles 37 / Sack % per snap .51 / Tackle % per snap 7.59 / - salary 2018 - $480,000 - age 25

Worst case scenario - Packers find zero pass rushers in free agency or the draft. Are forced to start Gilbert. End up with slightly better or no worse production and save upwards of $20,000,000 to use elsewhere. Tell me where I'm wrong.
By the numbers, with Gilbert playing 756 snaps - 3.5 / 4 sacks and 57 tackles.

I did read the last line of the post. You said youd take an edge at 12 if no free agents were signed. And you want Perry cut and not bring Matthews back. Soooo...  again, two edges, one which is a 3rd rounder or later. To combine with what ? The OLB cupboard is pretty bare after Perry and Matthew's. And, if those two are gone. You are hoping those two rooks can be magical.
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Offline footballdad

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2019, 01:36:14 AM »
Shinesman, lets be clear. Do you want to keep Perry and re-sign Matthews? They combined for 5 sacks at the cost of $25 million dollars last year. Just how many pass rushers between free agency and the draft do you want them to sign? Fackrell is already there - 10.5 sacks last year.
I would like to see them sign a solid starter in free agency if possible. If not, draft and develop.

Offline bmaafi

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2019, 06:30:04 PM »
If the Packers dip into FA for an OLB, my guess is it won't be Barr. He fits a 4-3 better than a 3-4. If there was a possibility of a FA OLB, I'd look to Justin Smith from WASH. Packer new LB coach Olivadotti has coached him since he came into the league. He might be the only FA OLB the Packers entertain thoughts of signing.

As much as I like Hockenson, #12 is way too high to take him. Trade back to #20 range, and then let's talk.

I get the feeling the first two picks will be defense. Remains to be seen if Bosa, Allen, and Ferrell are all gone by #12. Could give GB a choice between Polite and Ferrell at #12, and many hope Devin White is still on the board. Sweat and Burns could be in the mix if they trade back a few spots.

Second 1st round pick could be either an OL or S. David Edwards is off my radar completely at this point. He did not look good in his week at the Senior Bowl. Lindstrom or Risner could be in play at #30, as could Safety Juan Thornhill.

Here's a list of the OLB's currently on the Packer roster.
Clay Matthews
Nick Perry
Kyler Fackrell
Kendall Donnerson
Reggie Gilbert
Brady Sheldon

Matthews may be lost to FA, unless they convince him to take less than 1/2 what he got paid in 2018, and maybe have to move to ILB as well. If that happens, it reduces the likelyhood of letting Perry go as a cut/trade, unless they splash sign an OLB in UFA. Regardless, we might still see Gute draft 2 OLB's this year. The position has been ignored so long that they will likely over-address it this year like they have done with CB (more than once).

Actually if you go back and watch Barr’s film from college he killed it rushing the passer for someone who had never played LB, and read the scouting reports most had him as a 3-4 OLB. He’s still has upside as a pass rusher since he played in a 4-3 in Minny so he didn’t have to work on his pass rush.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2019, 07:36:52 PM »

Actually if you go back and watch Barr’s film from college he killed it rushing the passer for someone who had never played LB, and read the scouting reports most had him as a 3-4 OLB. He’s still has upside as a pass rusher since he played in a 4-3 in Minny so he didn’t have to work on his pass rush.

I remember reading his draft bio, and will agree that he has upside as a pass rusher as a 3-4 OLB, but isn't that the point of signing a high priced FA (likely averaging north of $11M/yr on a new contract). You expect that he comes in with proven ability and stats to match, as a 3-4 OLB, instead of having to learn/relearn something he did 6 years ago?

For that kind of money don't you want someone who's going to ring up 12-15 sacks per season?

Could he do that? I suppose so, but isn't it asking a lot for him to transition at this stage and find out it takes a season or two to develop while tying up a lot of cap space?

Maybe a proven 3-4 OLB would be a better option for spending that kind of money and then draft a quality 3-4 OLB this year?

Preston Smith or Za'Darius Smith come to mind, or if you want to save a couple cap dollars go with up n' comers (who didn't get as much playing time as they should have but show serious flashes) like Aaron Lynch or Shaquil Barrett.

Barr is a fine player. I just have my doubts that he will be an immediate force as a 3-4 OLB. And GB's defense sorely needs that.

But what do I know? Heck, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.  :o

Offline footballdad

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2019, 02:11:28 AM »
Really good point db. IMO Barr could make the transition quickly, but I could be wrong. Either of the Smith's would be a solid choice, but I don't see the Ravens letting Za'Darius walk. Would prefer Barrett over Lynch, but again both solid.
With the decision to keep Graham, Hockenson is off the board. Maybe Kaden Smith or Sternberger later.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2019, 06:20:07 AM »
Wonder what they want in a draft pick at TE?

More receiver type?
Or a guy that can block and catch?

Sternberger would be more the pure receiving TE and Smith the block/pass TE.

Another TE to consider is CJ Conrad, he’s like Smith.

As D&D guys you can’t go wrong with any of those three

Offline Shinesman

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2019, 07:11:09 AM »
Shinesman, lets be clear. Do you want to keep Perry and re-sign Matthews? They combined for 5 sacks at the cost of $25 million dollars last year. Just how many pass rushers between free agency and the draft do you want them to sign? Fackrell is already there - 10.5 sacks last year.
I would like to see them sign a solid starter in free agency if possible. If not, draft and develop.

Clearly you arent understanding what I am trying to point out so I will just stop. You think Fackrell is the answer? I think this last year was an anamoly. He had a few sacks run into him while he was being washed out. A writer pointed it out part way through the season. He has been very lucky in getting other pressure sending sacks his way.
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Offline bmaafi

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2019, 08:48:20 AM »

Actually if you go back and watch Barr’s film from college he killed it rushing the passer for someone who had never played LB, and read the scouting reports most had him as a 3-4 OLB. He’s still has upside as a pass rusher since he played in a 4-3 in Minny so he didn’t have to work on his pass rush.

I remember reading his draft bio, and will agree that he has upside as a pass rusher as a 3-4 OLB, but isn't that the point of signing a high priced FA (likely averaging north of $11M/yr on a new contract). You expect that he comes in with proven ability and stats to match, as a 3-4 OLB, instead of having to learn/relearn something he did 6 years ago?

For that kind of money don't you want someone who's going to ring up 12-15 sacks per season?

Could he do that? I suppose so, but isn't it asking a lot for him to transition at this stage and find out it takes a season or two to develop while tying up a lot of cap space?

Maybe a proven 3-4 OLB would be a better option for spending that kind of money and then draft a quality 3-4 OLB this year?

Preston Smith or Za'Darius Smith come to mind, or if you want to save a couple cap dollars go with up n' comers (who didn't get as much playing time as they should have but show serious flashes) like Aaron Lynch or Shaquil Barrett.

Barr is a fine player. I just have my doubts that he will be an immediate force as a 3-4 OLB. And GB's defense sorely needs that.

But what do I know? Heck, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.  :o

Well the fact that he did so well at in in college and did rush the passer at times in the NFL. Tells me he is probably a natural at it. Some guys just have that. Clay switched to ILB mid season and played very well for someone who as far as I know never played ILB(maybe in HS im not sure). Clay never started at USC and was a off the ball LB most of his career at USC and didn't get into the starting line up until a few games into his senior year and that was as a DE. Jimmy Graham played one year of TE at Miami and he killed it, Antonio Gates didn't play football at all in college. Point is some guys are just naturals at football or even for a specific position. I see Barr as a natural 3-4 OLB. I'm pretty sure he could catch up quickly with a offseason of just working on it. He did it as a junior after never playing the position a day in his life. He would also be getting NFL coaching instead of college coaching this time. Point is he has WAY more upside than either of the Smith's and neither will ever be 12-15 sacks a season type of players, but Barr would be and for probably the same amount of money. At minimum I would say your looking at 8-10 sacks his first year. That's probably the most you will get out of either of the Smith's. JMO

Offline dannobanano

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2019, 10:17:49 AM »

Actually if you go back and watch Barr’s film from college he killed it rushing the passer for someone who had never played LB, and read the scouting reports most had him as a 3-4 OLB. He’s still has upside as a pass rusher since he played in a 4-3 in Minny so he didn’t have to work on his pass rush.

I remember reading his draft bio, and will agree that he has upside as a pass rusher as a 3-4 OLB, but isn't that the point of signing a high priced FA (likely averaging north of $11M/yr on a new contract). You expect that he comes in with proven ability and stats to match, as a 3-4 OLB, instead of having to learn/relearn something he did 6 years ago?

For that kind of money don't you want someone who's going to ring up 12-15 sacks per season?

Could he do that? I suppose so, but isn't it asking a lot for him to transition at this stage and find out it takes a season or two to develop while tying up a lot of cap space?

Maybe a proven 3-4 OLB would be a better option for spending that kind of money and then draft a quality 3-4 OLB this year?

Preston Smith or Za'Darius Smith come to mind, or if you want to save a couple cap dollars go with up n' comers (who didn't get as much playing time as they should have but show serious flashes) like Aaron Lynch or Shaquil Barrett.

Barr is a fine player. I just have my doubts that he will be an immediate force as a 3-4 OLB. And GB's defense sorely needs that.

But what do I know? Heck, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.  :o

Well the fact that he did so well at in in college and did rush the passer at times in the NFL. Tells me he is probably a natural at it. Some guys just have that. Clay switched to ILB mid season and played very well for someone who as far as I know never played ILB(maybe in HS im not sure). Clay never started at USC and was a off the ball LB most of his career at USC and didn't get into the starting line up until a few games into his senior year and that was as a DE. Jimmy Graham played one year of TE at Miami and he killed it, Antonio Gates didn't play football at all in college. Point is some guys are just naturals at football or even for a specific position. I see Barr as a natural 3-4 OLB. I'm pretty sure he could catch up quickly with a offseason of just working on it. He did it as a junior after never playing the position a day in his life. He would also be getting NFL coaching instead of college coaching this time. Point is he has WAY more upside than either of the Smith's and neither will ever be 12-15 sacks a season type of players, but Barr would be and for probably the same amount of money. At minimum I would say your looking at 8-10 sacks his first year. That's probably the most you will get out of either of the Smith's. JMO

Like I said, I think Barr is a very fine player. Maybe he would transition seamlessly, but maybe not.

Saying he would be better than either of the Smith's is a subjective and bold statement, but that's what we do here. We offer our opinions, and you are certainly entitled to yours.

I'm sure Gute and his people (also, possibly Mike Pettine) are weighing all options at OLB, and he is likely among them.

We will see how it all shakes out in about 7 weeks.

Offline Shinesman

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Re: footballdad last pre free agency mock
« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2019, 03:09:35 AM »
The issue with Barr; you really wanna bring in a guy who took a late shot at our franchise qb and what might have ended up ruining his throwing mechanics?  I'll pass. That hit was 3 steps after the ball was gone, he wrapped, and drove him into the ground to try and hurt him. We dont need people like that on this team. Let's tray and stay as respectable as we can in this league.
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