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Author Topic: Our biggest need on draft day  (Read 1932 times)

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Online marklawrence

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Our biggest need on draft day
« on: February 06, 2019, 01:36:36 AM »
What do we draft at #12?
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Offline footballdad

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2019, 02:01:11 AM »
Depends on what is added during the 6 weeks or so of free agency before the draft. Cannot really pick a specific position as they are all moving parts and have to mesh well to function at 100%.
Hate to be a non-commital (don't know if that is a word) pooper, but I would go with best player available that is not a qb. Also if there are say....4 guys deemed equal, I would not be opposed to trading back a few spots and still getting 1 of the 4.
By the same token, would not be opposed to moving up to 4 (trading 12 and 30) if Josh Allen is still on the board.

Offline Hands

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2019, 07:01:54 AM »
Generally speaking would expect an edge or DE guy based on the board. A guy like Simmons/Oliver might be available, but I don't see any DBs, QB, RB, TE, WR, or even Oline guys picked at #12.
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Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2019, 07:58:40 AM »
Biggest need is not necessarily addressed at #12.

For me, if the Packers stay at #12, among the biggest Packers needs are RG, FS and TE..............and I wouldn't draft any one of those positions.

I don't see any safety as best value at #12 (I'm looking at you Deionte Thompson). Same applies to TE, I like Fant (though I'm not convinced he's be best value at #12), but I'd rather get an Irv Smith or T.J.Hockenson or one of the well rounded, but less speedy TE's later on. RG is traditionally a later pick for the Packers, though I do see some mileage in getting a G/T (maybe Jonah Williams at #12 or Cody Ford if the Packers move back a few spots), that can play starter quality guard in year one and move to RT when Bulaga's contract runs out after the 2019 season. The Packers would still need a RG if that were done, but it covers things nicely for now, especially if they get another guard later (or, tackle and convert him to guard, given it's the Packers we are talking about).

That leaves three possibilities. DL (not the greatest need, but great talent there this year), Edge, or OT. Before deciding who to choose, it's worth looking at who is likely to be available with later picks and also where the run is in the picks before #12. There is a good chance five edge guys go before #12 (Bosa, J.Allen, Gary, Ferrell and either Polite or Sweat). So, is the 6th best edge guy better than anything else there ? In the unlikely event that a Ferrell (edge) or Oliver (DL) are there, I's snap them up in a heartbeat, but that is a lot to expect.


That leaves us with OT. I'm conflicted here. Most of the good OTs will be gone before the end of round one. J.Williams, C.Ford (who looks like he can play OT comfortably), Andre Dillard, G.Little, D.Edwards, Y.Cajuste, J.Taylor, seven guys who might all be gone before the Packers pick in round 2 (#44). That leaves slim pickings, but the reason I'm conflicted is that the Packers have another FIRST round pick at #30. I expect more than one of those guys to still be on the board at #30 (but not for the round 2 pick).

Final choice. With all of this in mind. I'd go for C.Ferrell and E.Oliver first (though both almost certainly gone), then Sweat or Polite (like them equally), then C.Ford, A.Dillard and B.Burns. Therefore my first choice that has a good chance at being there, is an edge player, pushing an OT pick down to #30. My greatest hope for a really good player is seeing 2 x QBs, 2 x OTs and 1 x CB, 1 x ILB going in the first 11 picks - Add three edge guys and three DLs and you already have 12 picks, so GB just might get a top guy at #12.
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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2019, 02:06:24 PM »
I read an excellent article about our DC..Pettine...and what he liked...and players he used...at some of his former jobs....but can't find it ..ggrrrr

At OSLB Nick Perry is his prototype player. He wants his OLB to be strong on outside containment.


He doesn't feel sacks is as important as run support...

He feels he can get sacks elsewhere..

Go back to the SB and watch how the Pats played D. OLB kept outside leverage...outside arm always free to stop Rams outside zone runs.

Pressure came from inside ..DT's covering guards and Hightower over OC. stunts by the 3 inside guys dealt the Rams fits...

I could see CM3 playing Hightowers spot....more than at outside..he has NO discipline to maintain outside leverage

I could see taking an ILB at 12 if the top ILB (White?)


I still think our weakest positions on D...maybe the way Pettine wants to run it....is safety and ISLB


Wish I could find that damn article..was really informative on how Pettine ran his D at his former stops...I do remember at Jets h e had smaller OLB and traded a Hughes ????? many thought GB needed to go after him

Offline RT

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2019, 02:28:51 PM »
I read an excellent article about our DC..Pettine...and what he liked...and players he used...at some of his former jobs....but can't find it ..ggrrrr

At OSLB Nick Perry is his prototype player. He wants his OLB to be strong on outside containment.


He doesn't feel sacks is as important as run support...

He feels he can get sacks elsewhere..

Go back to the SB and watch how the Pats played D. OLB kept outside leverage...outside arm always free to stop Rams outside zone runs.

Pressure came from inside ..DT's covering guards and Hightower over OC. stunts by the 3 inside guys dealt the Rams fits...

I could see CM3 playing Hightowers spot....more than at outside..he has NO discipline to maintain outside leverage

I could see taking an ILB at 12 if the top ILB (White?)


I still think our weakest positions on D...maybe the way Pettine wants to run it....is safety and ISLB


Wish I could find that damn article..was really informative on how Pettine ran his D at his former stops...I do remember at Jets h e had smaller OLB and traded a Hughes ????? many thought GB needed to go after him

TAYLORBOY, I'm just going to copy and paste this posting I made on another thread a few days ago.

Well lets take a look at Mike Pettine's history as a DC and it might shed some light on the type of EDGE players that will be on the Packers draft board.

2009-2012 he was the DC for the Jets and his starting OLB's were Calvin Pace (6'4/262) and Bryan Thomas (6'4/266) both college DE's. In 2012 the Jets drafted DE Quinton Coples (6'6/284) 16th overall in the 1st round and turned him into an EDGE player.

2013 in Buffalo, his only season there before becoming the Browns HC, one of the first things he did in tinkering with the pieces he had to work with there was stand Mario Williams (6'6/300) up as an EDGE player. Also their was much talk that year about them trading Jerry Hughes (6'2/245) because he did not fit their defense, Hughes had been a high priced FA signing by the old staff the season before. The ironically fun thing about that is some here where calling for the Packers to trade for Hughes last summer to help fill their believed need at OLB.

In 2014 Pettine became HC in Cleveland and what was the first thing the Browns did in free agency? They signed Paul Kruger (6'4/285) to what many people felt was a very highly over pay contract to play on the EDGE in Pettine's defense.

Before all that he was a LBer's coach with the Ravens and his OLB's were Terrell Suggs (6'3/265), Jerret Johnson (6'3/285) and Adalius Thomas (6'2/270).

The number one job of an EDGE player for Pettine is setting a stout edge and contain, it is not bending the corner and getting after the QB. That is secondary for him.

Their will be a great deal of debate about EDGE draft prospects in the coming months, but many of the players that fans will pound the table for may well not even be on their draft board. IMO, I doubt their is much chance they draft any of these guys that come in at that 240ish range. Vince Biegel (6'3/245) works in some defenses, but just didn't have enough lead in his pants to work in Pettine's defense as an EDGE player. Just a few things to consider when reviewing 2019 draft possibilities.

Also, just guessing, but Michael Cohen from The Athletic wrote a good article about Pettine's defense about a year ago. Could that be the one you are thinking of?

Offline dannobanano

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2019, 03:30:59 PM »
I read an excellent article about our DC..Pettine...and what he liked...and players he used...at some of his former jobs....but can't find it ..ggrrrr

At OSLB Nick Perry is his prototype player. He wants his OLB to be strong on outside containment.


He doesn't feel sacks is as important as run support...

He feels he can get sacks elsewhere..

Go back to the SB and watch how the Pats played D. OLB kept outside leverage...outside arm always free to stop Rams outside zone runs.

Pressure came from inside ..DT's covering guards and Hightower over OC. stunts by the 3 inside guys dealt the Rams fits...

I could see CM3 playing Hightowers spot....more than at outside..he has NO discipline to maintain outside leverage

I could see taking an ILB at 12 if the top ILB (White?)


I still think our weakest positions on D...maybe the way Pettine wants to run it....is safety and ISLB


Wish I could find that damn article..was really informative on how Pettine ran his D at his former stops...I do remember at Jets h e had smaller OLB and traded a Hughes ????? many thought GB needed to go after him

TAYLORBOY, I'm just going to copy and paste this posting I made on another thread a few days ago.

Well lets take a look at Mike Pettine's history as a DC and it might shed some light on the type of EDGE players that will be on the Packers draft board.

2009-2012 he was the DC for the Jets and his starting OLB's were Calvin Pace (6'4/262) and Bryan Thomas (6'4/266) both college DE's. In 2012 the Jets drafted DE Quinton Coples (6'6/284) 16th overall in the 1st round and turned him into an EDGE player.

2013 in Buffalo, his only season there before becoming the Browns HC, one of the first things he did in tinkering with the pieces he had to work with there was stand Mario Williams (6'6/300) up as an EDGE player. Also their was much talk that year about them trading Jerry Hughes (6'2/245) because he did not fit their defense, Hughes had been a high priced FA signing by the old staff the season before. The ironically fun thing about that is some here where calling for the Packers to trade for Hughes last summer to help fill their believed need at OLB.

In 2014 Pettine became HC in Cleveland and what was the first thing the Browns did in free agency? They signed Paul Kruger (6'4/285) to what many people felt was a very highly over pay contract to play on the EDGE in Pettine's defense.

Before all that he was a LBer's coach with the Ravens and his OLB's were Terrell Suggs (6'3/265), Jerret Johnson (6'3/285) and Adalius Thomas (6'2/270).

The number one job of an EDGE player for Pettine is setting a stout edge and contain, it is not bending the corner and getting after the QB. That is secondary for him.

Their will be a great deal of debate about EDGE draft prospects in the coming months, but many of the players that fans will pound the table for may well not even be on their draft board. IMO, I doubt their is much chance they draft any of these guys that come in at that 240ish range. Vince Biegel (6'3/245) works in some defenses, but just didn't have enough lead in his pants to work in Pettine's defense as an EDGE player. Just a few things to consider when reviewing 2019 draft possibilities.

Also, just guessing, but Michael Cohen from The Athletic wrote a good article about Pettine's defense about a year ago. Could that be the one you are thinking of?

Good stuff from both of you!

And this is why I have had a hard time envisioning Montez Sweat and Brian Burns as Packer draft picks. Clearly Cachai Polite/Clelin Ferrell/Jaylon Ferguson/Joe Jackson/Porter Gustin/Shariff Miller/L J Collier all have body types/measurables that Pettine prefers..........heck! even throw in Rashon Gary (if he's still on the board at #12)!

MP likes to get pressure from up the middle and use Edge guys for containment.

That's why we should expect a penetrating DL draft pick and an ILB that can blitz as well.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2019, 03:32:48 PM by dannobanano »

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2019, 01:15:03 AM »
So on the basis of what I am reading we can forget the agonising over edge guys like Polite and Burns, maybe Sweat as well.
We need to look harder (at pick 12) at guys like Quinnen Williams (definitely gone), Ed Oliver (almost definitely gone), Rashan Gary (might be gone), Jefferey Simmons and Christian Wilkins (probably there) - all quick guys who can penetrate a line, 3 tech types. These guys are (listed as) 6'3" to 6'5", 280 (Gary), 290 (Oliver) or 300lb (Simmons/Wilkins).

Maybe we get one of these guys at our premium pick and grab an OLB later, a Joe Jackson, Chase Winovich, Charles Omenihu, Zach Allen, Oshane Ximines, Ben Banogu type.......... that is a big bunch of edge guys and several should still be on the board with the 2nd round pick at #44.

In fact, if there is a run on edge guys, we could be left with the 5th best guy at #12 (N.Bosa, J.Allen, C.Ferrell, Sweat all gone) compared to the 3rd or 4th best of the 3T types (Q.Williams, E.Oliver and maybe Gary gone), not the ideal position for the Packers, but still early enough to have a chance at a very good player, because if GB were picking in the mid-late 20s, as they so often have, all the guys I mentioned should be gone.

Maybe the best strategy is to go DL, OT, Edge, or maybe DL, FS, Edge, with the first three picks. A trio like DT Jefferey Simmons, OT Andre Dillard, Edge Charles Omenihu could be a huge upgrade for the Packers team.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2019, 01:37:25 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Online ricky

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2019, 04:28:41 AM »
Before writing that certain guys will be gone, its always important to remember the case of B.J. Raji. There were many on here who desperately wanted to draft him, but "everyone knew" he'd be long gone by the ninth pick. The draft always has weird things happen. Guys who were expected to go in the first round end up lasting until rounds two or three. There is always the team that falls in love with a guy and way overpays to get their man- usually a QB (think RGIII or Trubisky). Remember how much the Cowboys were mocked for "overdrafting" offensive linemen? Turned out pretty well in the end, didn't it? So, when the draft unfolds, always expect the unexpected.
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Offline Hands

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2019, 07:13:48 AM »
Ferrell/Gary and Polite seem to me the two best candidates for that #12 position. I just don't think Oliver and Simmons will be there. They could also look at the kid from LSU as a possibility at ILB, but not sure how Pettine/Gutsy feel about ILBs as high 1st round picks. Who knows they might pick up Smith as a FA from Baltimore and trade down and get an Oline guy at 14/16 range.
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Offline RT

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2019, 08:43:42 AM »
So on the basis of what I am reading we can forget the agonising over edge guys like Polite and Burns, maybe Sweat as well.
We need to look harder (at pick 12) at guys like Quinnen Williams (definitely gone), Ed Oliver (almost definitely gone), Rashan Gary (might be gone), Jefferey Simmons and Christian Wilkins (probably there) - all quick guys who can penetrate a line, 3 tech types. These guys are (listed as) 6'3" to 6'5", 280 (Gary), 290 (Oliver) or 300lb (Simmons/Wilkins).

Maybe we get one of these guys at our premium pick and grab an OLB later, a Joe Jackson, Chase Winovich, Charles Omenihu, Zach Allen, Oshane Ximines, Ben Banogu type.......... that is a big bunch of edge guys and several should still be on the board with the 2nd round pick at #44.

In fact, if there is a run on edge guys, we could be left with the 5th best guy at #12 (N.Bosa, J.Allen, C.Ferrell, Sweat all gone) compared to the 3rd or 4th best of the 3T types (Q.Williams, E.Oliver and maybe Gary gone), not the ideal position for the Packers, but still early enough to have a chance at a very good player, because if GB were picking in the mid-late 20s, as they so often have, all the guys I mentioned should be gone.

Maybe the best strategy is to go DL, OT, Edge, or maybe DL, FS, Edge, with the first three picks. A trio like DT Jefferey Simmons, OT Andre Dillard, Edge Charles Omenihu could be a huge upgrade for the Packers team.


Nice work 1265.

I am just waiting for the combine measurables and at that point we should have a much better idea on the narrowed down prospects list. As for now we are all just shooting from the hip for the most part. If Polite comes in at 6'2/260's and puts up good short area numbers, I would think he would be in the conversation for the Packers.

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2019, 07:06:58 AM »
You nailed it RT...thanks

Will Gute be a GM to follow his Coaches on types of players best suited....or...draft players that really don't always fit...I thought TT fell into this category many times on drafting players out of the types Coaches wanted

Offline RT

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2019, 09:36:39 AM »
You nailed it RT...thanks

Will Gute be a GM to follow his Coaches on types of players best suited....or...draft players that really don't always fit...I thought TT fell into this category many times on drafting players out of the types Coaches wanted


That narrative that TT drafted players that didn't fit what the coaches were trying to do is starting to get floated a bit lately and I just don't buy it. I'm guessing that people are pointing to Damarious Randall, Datone Jones and Nick Perry as the examples, but each of those players fit a new wrinkle or filled a package that was being implemented in an attempt to say ahead of the curve. Did they work out as planned? No they did not, but that does not mean their was not a plan on how those players were going to help the Packers as a team.

Online ricky

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2019, 04:50:50 PM »
That narrative that TT drafted players that didn't fit what the coaches were trying to do is starting to get floated a bit lately and I just don't buy it. I'm guessing that people are pointing to Damarious Randall, Datone Jones and Nick Perry as the examples, but each of those players fit a new wrinkle or filled a package that was being implemented in an attempt to say ahead of the curve. Did they work out as planned? No they did not, but that does not mean their was not a plan on how those players were going to help the Packers as a team.

And that is the problem with player acquistion,either through FA or the draft. In FA, does the new guy fit the new system, and, more importantly, does he buy into the new system? A guy might be great on one team, and a bust on another. Same with draft picks, but with less information. At least FA's have played in the pros and proven themselves. Draft picks are projections based on college performance and potential. And these are obviously highly unreliable, because for every Aaron Donald, there are a lot of Vernon Gholstons.
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Offline dannobanano

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Re: Our biggest need on draft day
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2019, 05:12:13 PM »
OLB/Preston Smith (WASH) might be a very worthy FA risk since he was coached by new LB's coach Olivadotti for his entire pro career (so far).

They would have a better idea on what they are getting than a team would with most FA's.