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Author Topic: How many 1st round grades  (Read 1672 times)

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Offline RT

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How many 1st round grades
« on: March 21, 2019, 08:17:09 PM »
It is that time of year where we are going to start hearing a lot of information about teams big boards and what round grades different players have. This is from the Brownswire and their breaking down the OBJ trade.

 In breaking down the trade on the Move the Sticks podcast with Bucky Brooks (filling in for Daniel Jeremiah), NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein dropped the knowledge nugget.
“I had heard that the Browns considered there to be 15 players that are first round players in this year’s draft,” Zierlein explained. “That sounds about right. About 15 guys who are first round picks. Analytics is always about quantifying value so, for them, that 17th pick, they considered that a second round player, generally speaking. In the Browns’ mind, they considered they were giving up a second-round player and not a first round player. That makes even more sense right now,”

In reading that it got me thinking about other teams and what about the Packers. I found where another draft blogger stated that he had spoken with a scout of an unnamed team who said their team had 21 players with 1st round grades. Using the incomplete data that I have, I count 19 players that qualify as Packer types using historical guidelines. I am guessing the Packers end number will be within one or two of that number one way or the other. 

Offline RT

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2019, 09:26:59 AM »
The not so 'S.W.A.G.' at the Packers 1st round board.

1.) Nick Bosa - Edge
2.) Quinnen Williams - DL
3.) Josh Allen - EDGE
4.) Ed Oliver - DL
5.) Brian Burns - EDGE
6.) Andre Dillard - OT
7.) TJ Hockenson - TE
8.) Montez Sweat - EDGE
9.) Rashan Gary - EDGE
10.) Jawaan Taylor - OT
11.) Greedy Williams - CB
12.) Clelin Ferrell - EDGE
13.) Noah Fant - TE
14.) Devin Bush - ILB
15.) Jonah Williams - OL
16.) Devin White - ILB
17.) Christian Wilkins - DL
18.) Garrett Bradbury - OL
19.) Drew Lock - QB

In doing this, the only player that I added here that doesn't meet all the measurables is Devin Bush. The reason for adding him was that I view him as the Jaire Alexander of this years draft, he is just a little too short and a little light, but he has so many of those dog qualities that Alexander has that I couldn't help myself and added him here. But he also might have a 2nd round grade with the Packers because of it.

Online ricky

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2019, 02:20:52 PM »
The not so 'S.W.A.G.' at the Packers 1st round board.

1.) Nick Bosa - Edge
2.) Quinnen Williams - DL
3.) Josh Allen - EDGE
4.) Ed Oliver - DL
5.) Brian Burns - EDGE
6.) Andre Dillard - OT
7.) TJ Hockenson - TE
8.) Montez Sweat - EDGE
9.) Rashan Gary - EDGE
10.) Jawaan Taylor - OT
11.) Greedy Williams - CB
12.) Clelin Ferrell - EDGE
13.) Noah Fant - TE
14.) Devin Bush - ILB
15.) Jonah Williams - OL
16.) Devin White - ILB
17.) Christian Wilkins - DL
18.) Garrett Bradbury - OL
19.) Drew Lock - QB

In doing this, the only player that I added here that doesn't meet all the measurables is Devin Bush. The reason for adding him was that I view him as the Jaire Alexander of this years draft, he is just a little too short and a little light, but he has so many of those dog qualities that Alexander has that I couldn't help myself and added him here. But he also might have a 2nd round grade with the Packers because of it.

The problem is that these grades are based on college production, testing and interviews with the player, coaches, etc. However, if history is any guide, at least half of these guys will either be busts, or not nearly as productive as projected. And, of course, there will always be that guy taken  much later who become either very good or great players. In the end, you do everything you can to maximize your chances of picking the right player, and then hope things work out.
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Offline RT

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2019, 03:37:27 PM »
That is all very true, ricky.

The whole process is a blend of exact and non exact sciences all mixed together to come up with what each team believes will lead to the highest probability for success for their individual team. Their will allows be a failure rate with the selection process because they are dealing with young humans with ever changing goals, wants, needs and ambitions. Add in unknown physical pitfalls and you start out knowing that on average a team is going to have a 30-40% loss regardless of their efforts.

The insanity part enters in when fans expect that their teams hit on all their draft picks, but it is just not realistic thought.

Online ricky

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2019, 04:10:18 PM »
The insanity part enters in when fans expect that their teams hit on all their draft picks, but it is just not realistic thought.

Absolutely. And the posters who crow about the guy they wanted who worked out for another team, while ignoring all the players they wanted who were out of the league within three or four years. By the way, I'm thinking that the Packers should look into bringing in any players from the AAF to see if they could help the team. Here are some possibilities. I'd add Trent Richardson, though wouldn't put a lot of faith in his making the team. Though, admittedly, this would be similar to trying out someone during the exhibition season.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2820354-ranking-the-top-aaf-players-who-could-be-in-the-nfl-next-year#slide3

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Offline Shinesman

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2019, 11:55:21 PM »
White being that far down is pretty far fetched. The man is the closest thing tonLuke Kuechly we've seen in awhile.
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Offline Gregg

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2019, 12:05:14 AM »
I agree, I would put him in the Top Ten.

Offline RT

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2019, 07:46:13 AM »
I agree, I would put him in the Top Ten.

White is a fine player and probably will be drafted in the top ten, but that doesn't mean that he is in the top ten on the Packers board.

Each year Packers fans go through this same exercise with ILB's and insisting that this is the one. 2018 - Smith, Edmonds 2017 - Reddick, Davis  2016 - Lee, Smith, Jacks 2015 - Anthony. All within the Packers reach, yet none of them drafted. I have done this research and stated it on here before that under the Wolf/Thompson umbrella of management the Packers have not drafted a MLB/ILB in the first 2 rounds of the draft in 27 years. Is this the year? Maybe, but you know what they say about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

With that said, if White's placing is all you are getting from this than you are missing the point of the posting. It was reported the Browns believe that there are only 15 first rounders, another team is said to have 21. The Packers have two 1st round picks, can they come out of the draft with two players that they actually have 1st round grades on without giving up a painful amount of draft capital? Because the second part of this is that rounds 2-3-4-5 will have extra value this year. A scout yesterday on a draft podcast said that teams with extra picks in those rounds have a chance to really strengthen their rosters. His team has 70 players with 2nd or 3rd round grades. If that is the case with the Packers also, they have a chance with the picks they currently have to come out of the draft with 6 or possibly even 7 players they have a 3rd round grade or better on.     

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2019, 11:15:24 AM »
I never worry about how many players (supposedly) carry a first round grade. It is so subjective and there is no clear boundary in my mind. Tiers are the closest thing to that, but they are not artificially tied to the top 32 picks - tiers can stretch from any pick number to any other, with the size of that tier being variable. You can only take an available player or deal, which ties into tiers better than rounds.

The one real difference in looking at rounds is the extra year for first round picks. Important, but not overwhelmingly important.

1) If you have lots of guys in the same tier that you like almost equally, when your pick rolls around, a smart GM trades down, but not so far as to drop a tier.
2) If you think there will be no-one you like in the highest tier left, when your pick comes, then you can try and trade up (before your pick, obviously), or trade down - both assume you can find a partner to trade with that offers sufficient value in trade.
3) If there is a favourite guy on board when your pick comes, one you really like, take him whatever the tiers.

None of this has much to do with how many first round picks, have first round talent.

I'll give another reason I don't like like this "x no. of first round picks". All it tells you is one opinion on OVERALL strength in the top of the draft, ie ONLY in round one. More useful is to have a good  idea of the strength at each position (which is why draft boards are stacked in such a way as to easily see the way talent is stacked at each position and an overall value (relative to all other positions) so you can clearly see how fast the talent level at any position is likely to drop. Many drafts lack much high level talent at one position, but have good depth, which (for example) is true of WRs this year - not especially good in round one, good thereafter.
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Offline RT

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2019, 01:16:45 PM »
Not sure I follow why you have a beef with 1st round grades. It is a thing, GM's and scouts from the past and present are talking about it. Lance Zierlien, Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah who all have spent time in NFL front offices have discussed it at length the last couple of days. Is it subjective, of course it is. That is why different teams have a different number of players on their boards. But tiers are subjective also, everybody will draw a line somewhere and put the player in one round or tier or another.

The thing here is that teams do both. They have ranked players by position, they have blended the positions together for one vertical board and they have put them into groupings or tiers to get the best feel for pockets of strength.

You are correct in the approach of moving up or down based on the current state of the board. But that is the ideal and as you have stated a trade partner is not always available.   

Offline Hands

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2019, 01:53:57 PM »
Most horizontal draft boards have individual players ranked per first through 7th rounds. Even priority FAs have a slot. What this year's draft is concluding is there are NO, I repeat NO top 5 draft prospects. There will be players picked in the top 5 slots, but at this time they aren't top 5 talents.
According to one top scout, and backed up by another smart fellow, not myself, here are the top 13 guys and where they fall.

Here are the top 2 guys and they are rated just below the top 5 slots:
1.Bosa
2.Williams
Mid to late 1st round guys:
3.Allen
4.Oliver
5.Ferrell
6.Wilkins
7.White
8.Simmons
9.Williams
10.Hockenson

Those are your top ten players. Figure two maybe three QBs will be selected before 12, and one of those top ten guys will fall to the Packers. The next three positions are:
11.Gary
12.Murphy
13.Jacobs
There are a total of 23 players with 1st round rankings.

So one of the top ten or one of the next 3. Those are your draft possibilities. If you knew how Gutsy drafted, or what players MLF wants...you could probably figure who will be selected with that 12th pick. Will they trade out of the pick? Probably if the right offer is made. Just remember, for every QB selected...another top ten player drops to the Packers.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 01:57:15 PM by Hands »
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Offline RT

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2019, 02:41:53 PM »
Good stuff as usual from you Hands.

I haven't seen any season to season comparisons on players so I really don't have a feel for how many truly elite players there are this years draft, if any. Overall I don't disagree on much of anything, but I don't believe we can make a blanket statement that there are 23 players with 1st round rankings on each teams board. I think it is safe to say their is some variation from team to team, no?

And one last very, very tiny thing and than I will quit nitpicking. IMO, I just can't agree that Simmons is still in anyone's top ten, I believe their is a fair chance he is taken 25-45, just not buying top ten with an ACL. 
« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 02:44:10 PM by RT »

Offline RT

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2019, 03:34:17 PM »
The insanity part enters in when fans expect that their teams hit on all their draft picks, but it is just not realistic thought.

Absolutely. And the posters who crow about the guy they wanted who worked out for another team, while ignoring all the players they wanted who were out of the league within three or four years. By the way, I'm thinking that the Packers should look into bringing in any players from the AAF to see if they could help the team. Here are some possibilities. I'd add Trent Richardson, though wouldn't put a lot of faith in his making the team. Though, admittedly, this would be similar to trying out someone during the exhibition season.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2820354-ranking-the-top-aaf-players-who-could-be-in-the-nfl-next-year#slide3

Read this and made me think of our conversation.


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So if we agree that success & failure in NFL is about more than ability

We hear positives, but who is qualified to talk about the ‘other’ stuff?

Learning disability
Attitude issue
Lack of intelligence
Poor work ethic
Complicated relationship
Issues at home
Addictive tendencies

Offline The GM

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2019, 04:12:52 PM »
The not so 'S.W.A.G.' at the Packers 1st round board.

1.) Nick Bosa - Edge
2.) Quinnen Williams - DL
3.) Josh Allen - EDGE
4.) Ed Oliver - DL
5.) Brian Burns - EDGE
6.) Andre Dillard - OT
7.) TJ Hockenson - TE
8.) Montez Sweat - EDGE
9.) Rashan Gary - EDGE
10.) Jawaan Taylor - OT
11.) Greedy Williams - CB
12.) Clelin Ferrell - EDGE
13.) Noah Fant - TE
14.) Devin Bush - ILB
15.) Jonah Williams - OL
16.) Devin White - ILB
17.) Christian Wilkins - DL
18.) Garrett Bradbury - OL
19.) Drew Lock - QB

In doing this, the only player that I added here that doesn't meet all the measurables is Devin Bush. The reason for adding him was that I view him as the Jaire Alexander of this years draft, he is just a little too short and a little light, but he has so many of those dog qualities that Alexander has that I couldn't help myself and added him here. But he also might have a 2nd round grade with the Packers because of it.

The problem is that these grades are based on college production, testing and interviews with the player, coaches, etc. However, if history is any guide, at least half of these guys will either be busts, or not nearly as productive as projected. And, of course, there will always be that guy taken  much later who become either very good or great players. In the end, you do everything you can to maximize your chances of picking the right player, and then hope things work out.

Agree Ricky, it important to find the right fit for your offense and organization.  What many dont realize is sometimes its the coaching and organization that fails the player.   I still maintain had Joe Montana been drafted by the Green Bay Packers in 1979, he wouldnt be the Joe Montana we know and probably would be out of the league in 5 years.   He went to Bill Walsh's new WCO and the rest is history.   The point is,its not always the player, sometimes it the place or team he's going to and what type of coaching and support they have.  Cris Carter is another example.   Philly couldn't or didn't want to handle his issues, Minnesota could and he became a HOFer.   Its not easy picking these guys, that for sure.  Its why those interviews and personal evals are so important for a city like Green Bay.

 

Offline RT

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Re: How many 1st round grades
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2019, 07:17:12 PM »
Greg Gabriel


 
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Teams where the HC has final say have draft boards that differ from clubs where the GM has final say. That said, no two teams boards are alike regardless of who has final say.

Clubs view medicals and character differently. One club could take a player off the board while another says “he’s good”. Very similar to how differ in the talent evaluation.

Coaches opinions in the draft process is similar to a scouts ... it’s one report and part of the equation but far from a big part of the equation unless the HC has final say.

The number of players with 1st round grades differ from club to club and the total number of players on a clubs board differ from club to club.