September 18, 2019, 09:29:43 PM

Author Topic: footballdad Final final mock  (Read 1198 times)

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Online ricky

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Re: footballdad Final final mock
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2019, 07:43:02 PM »
Could well hapen: Giants trade their 17th (and some other picks) to the Packers for their 12th to get the QB they are after. They really need to find a replacement for an aging, rapidly declining (but much loved by fans) Eli. Though perhaps the Giants instead throw their 17th to the Cards for Josh Rosen (and a pick from the Cards?). Or maybe this mock about the Giants could work. It all depends on whether Murray is indeed taken by Arizona with #1.

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-york-giants/LongFormArticle/Giants-mock-draft-2019-Josh-Rosen-trade-130649050/#130649050_3
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Offline bmaafi

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Re: footballdad Final final mock
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2019, 09:51:31 PM »
I would rather have a edge at 12(value) than Williams who I feel could still be there five picks later and I don't think Crosby will be there in the 5th. But overall I like it.

The likelihood of them drafting an EDGE players at 12 is probably fairly low. Don't believe they would invest the highest pick they have had in a decade on a player who would be a part time player for the next 3-4 years. IMO.

But that is also the beauty of their off-season. They can let the draft come to them since they don't have any huge holes outside of fs. They can take the best player available at 12 and that could be a montez sweat or a Brian burns, also with the way they plan to use zed I think the rookie would play a lot. Zed might not even play a lot of olb, also fackerell will be a ufa after this year and the Packers may let him walk if they have the Smith's and burns/sweat. Pass rushers are a premium in the NFL and if you have 3 or 4 guys who can get after the qb you can keep them fresh and rotate them all game. Look at the Giants when they went to two Superbowls they did it on the back of their defense and running game. They had a bunch of pass rushers they could throw at you all game. JMO

Offline RT

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Re: footballdad Final final mock
« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2019, 06:18:37 AM »
I would rather have a edge at 12(value) than Williams who I feel could still be there five picks later and I don't think Crosby will be there in the 5th. But overall I like it.

The likelihood of them drafting an EDGE players at 12 is probably fairly low. Don't believe they would invest the highest pick they have had in a decade on a player who would be a part time player for the next 3-4 years. IMO.

But that is also the beauty of their off-season. They can let the draft come to them since they don't have any huge holes outside of fs. They can take the best player available at 12 and that could be a montez sweat or a Brian burns, also with the way they plan to use zed I think the rookie would play a lot. Zed might not even play a lot of olb, also fackerell will be a ufa after this year and the Packers may let him walk if they have the Smith's and burns/sweat. Pass rushers are a premium in the NFL and if you have 3 or 4 guys who can get after the qb you can keep them fresh and rotate them all game. Look at the Giants when they went to two Superbowls they did it on the back of their defense and running game. They had a bunch of pass rushers they could throw at you all game. JMO

I agree with you in theory that they will take the BPA on their board, but, BUT because of the signings of Smith & Smith their board is now stacked so that there is almost no chance to draft Sweat or Burns at 12. Their final board probably looks something like this,

1.) Quinnen Williams - DL
2.) Nick Bosa - EDGE
3.) Josh Allen - EDGE
4.) Ed Oliver - DL
5.) Andre Dillard - OT
6.) Christian Wilkins - DL
7.) Jonah Williams - OL
8.) Jerry Tillery - DL
9.) TJ Hockenson - TE
10.) Drew Lock - QB
11.) Clelin Ferrell - EDGE
12.) Noah Fant - TE
13.) Jawaan Taylor - OT
14.) Dexter Lawrence - DL
15.) Montez Sweat - EDGE
16.) Brian Burns - EDGE

The Packers will take the best player on their board at 12 tomorrow night, but barring a trade back an Edge player is probably not an option. If the Packers don't trade, the probability is very high that the pick will be a DT or OT. IMO.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2019, 06:21:59 AM by RT »

Offline bmaafi

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Re: footballdad Final final mock
« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2019, 10:20:08 AM »
I would rather have a edge at 12(value) than Williams who I feel could still be there five picks later and I don't think Crosby will be there in the 5th. But overall I like it.

The likelihood of them drafting an EDGE players at 12 is probably fairly low. Don't believe they would invest the highest pick they have had in a decade on a player who would be a part time player for the next 3-4 years. IMO.



But that is also the beauty of their off-season. They can let the draft come to them since they don't have any huge holes outside of fs. They can take the best player available at 12 and that could be a montez sweat or a Brian burns, also with the way they plan to use zed I think the rookie would play a lot. Zed might not even play a lot of olb, also fackerell will be a ufa after this year and the Packers may let him walk if they have the Smith's and burns/sweat. Pass rushers are a premium in the NFL and if you have 3 or 4 guys who can get after the qb you can keep them fresh and rotate them all game. Look at the Giants when they went to two Superbowls they did it on the back of their defense and running game. They had a bunch of pass rushers they could throw at you all game. JMO

I agree with you in theory that they will take the BPA on their board, but, BUT because of the signings of Smith & Smith their board is now stacked so that there is almost no chance to draft Sweat or Burns at 12. Their final board probably looks something like this,

1.) Quinnen Williams - DL
2.) Nick Bosa - EDGE
3.) Josh Allen - EDGE
4.) Ed Oliver - DL
5.) Andre Dillard - OT
6.) Christian Wilkins - DL
7.) Jonah Williams - OL
8.) Jerry Tillery - DL
9.) TJ Hockenson - TE
10.) Drew Lock - QB
11.) Clelin Ferrell - EDGE
12.) Noah Fant - TE
13.) Jawaan Taylor - OT
14.) Dexter Lawrence - DL
15.) Montez Sweat - EDGE
16.) Brian Burns - EDGE

The Packers will take the best player on their board at 12 tomorrow night, but barring a trade back an Edge player is probably not an option. If the Packers don't trade, the probability is very high that the pick will be a DT or OT. IMO.



The problem with that is boards don't usually work that way. You don't rank players on your board with any thought to team needs, teams that do that usually fail because they go for need instead of the better player. Thompson almost always went BPA(until his later drafts). Your board should be based on talent/ potential, character, production, and to a lesser extent scheme fit. Team need does sometimes get factored in when you draft a player but that does not mean you do not take a better player because you may not have a huge need at that position. If you have two players rated the same when your pick is up and one player fits a need and the other doesn't then yes you take the need player. For example if Oliver and Burns are both there at 12 I would expect the packers to take Oliver and would be ok with it, but if its say Burns vs Williams and packers have both rated the same or close. I would think they take Burns because its a more premium position. You can find RTs and guards easily later in the draft. Like I said the positions that are seen as 'gold' in the NFL is QBs, and pass rushers. You can never have enough good pass rushers, and you need to have a good QB to even think about being a super bowl contender on a consistent basis. Also teams generally tend to rank players in tiers as well as numbers.

Offline RT

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Re: footballdad Final final mock
« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2019, 12:00:16 PM »
We are disagreeing about nothing here. You want them to draft an Edge player and I believe they will draft a DT or OT, but I really don't care who they draft. Whoever they decide will be excellent player and I am fine with that. The only thing I am doing in the draft process is attempting to narrow down who the Packers may well be taking. I have no favorites. Yes everything starts with tiers, but inevitably a pick will need to be made and the players in every tier will need to be put in an order for selection purposes. That is what I did to simplify the point I was attempting to make.

The one thing I do disagree with you on is your take on scheme fit. Too exaggerate a hypothetical here to express my point, on the 3rd day of the draft a fullback is a tier higher on a teams board than any other player, but the team doesn't use a fullback in their offense, does the team still draft the fullback? Or the Ravens who just signed their kicker Justin Tucker to an extension, do they take a kicker if he is the highest rated player on their board? Yes those are extremes, but every position and player is weighed to a lesser degree in the decision making process.

You touch on positional value and it is without a doubt a factor for every team, but I don't agree on the Burns vs Williams take. First, if Williams is not viewed as LT (NFL football is played with 2 tackles with LT skills, there are no more old school RT only, they are guards) material to the Packers than he is not in a 1st round discussion. OT's are the second most important position on offense behind the QB. Edge players in Pettine's defense are probably 3rd in importance behind the DL with rush skills and cover corners. Scheme fit does matter.
     

Offline bmaafi

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Re: footballdad Final final mock
« Reply #20 on: April 24, 2019, 11:15:17 PM »
It's not that I want them to draft an edge, it's just that at 12 I feel the best players on the board will probably be sweat and or burns. I would love to see Oliver fall I just don't think the Packers value guard or RT enough to draft one so early. Kickers and fullbacks don't count since teams only keep one kicker and probably 90% of teams that employ a full back only have one. I also think you are Miss understanding my point. Scheme fit is definitely taken into consideration I just put it a little lower than the others. LT is the second most important, since the majority of QBs are right handed they can see the pass rushers on that side better obviously. I would think RT is probably around 4th or 5th after WR(at least having one decent one), and either above or after center( pressure from the middle and being able to block it we'll have become very important in recent years). JMO.