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Author Topic: A positional look  (Read 991 times)

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Offline RT

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A positional look
« on: May 06, 2019, 09:36:07 PM »
Well the Packers have added 20 rookies to the roster since last Thursday, the first night of the draft. The annual re-stocking of new talent is for the most part complete and it is now time for the coaching staff to begin their part of molding them into the vision that they have for each player so to best help the team as a whole. I am going to take a quick look at each position and the additions that have been made. Is it enough or was it overkill or did it fall short?

QB (1)
Manny Wilkins - Arizona State - UDFA

As most expected the Packers did not spend draft capital on a QB, but signing Wilkins does add a QB that was a dual threat at the Pac-12 level. Wilkins threw 52 TD's and for over 8600 yards, along with over a 1000 yards rushing. The down side and might be the main reason he did not get drafted is that he is only 193 pounds, but he is an electric player who should be a fun to watch during the pre season.

RB (1)
Dexter Williams - Notre Dame - 6th round

Dexter Williams comes to the Packers in a similar way that his former teammate ESB did the season before. Like ESB, Williams on his on the field tape rated to go higher in the draft than the 6th round, but his questionable character caused him to slip a bit on draft day. If the Packers get another version of ESB with a 6th round pick in Williams, that would be another solid win for the Packers that late in the draft.

TE (2)
Jace Sternberger - Texas A&M - 3rd round
Davis Koppenhaver - Duke - UDFA

The Packers doubled up here like many fans felt they would, one early and one late. Sternberger is a player that was connected to the Packers everywhere you looked, almost to the degree that I kind of felt it might be a smokescreen. He is a player that might see action in the passing game early on and seems to have an overall bright future. Koppenhaver was a well kept secret from me anyways, it was rumored that the Packers had an interest in his TE teammate Daniel Helm, but maybe Koppenhaver was the target all along. Koppenhaver was not a high volume catcher at Duke, but 12 of his 49 catches were for TD's and seems like he was a very good red zone target. 

WR (2)
Matt Eaton - Iowa State - UDFA
Darius Shepherd - North Dakota State - UDFA

The WR position might have been one position that fans disagreed about the most as far as how much draft capital should be spend on the position. In the end they spent none, only signing a pair of little known UDFA's to the roster. I believe the position is in very good shape and the 2 rookies have very long odds ahead of them going into training camp.

OL (3)
Elgton Jenkins - Mississippi State - 2nd round
Yosh Nijman - Virginia Tech - UDFA
Larry Williams - Oklahoma State - UDFA

The Packers took a position of strength and added to it with some athletic big men. Jenkins is going to have a chance to be a starting guard for many years to come (probably starting in 2020 though). Nijman is an interesting prospect, on the SPARQ's he tested as the 2nd most athletic OT in the draft behind Andre Dillard of Washington State. Williams feels like a Lane Taylor clone, not only were they both UDFA guards out of Oklahoma State signed by the Packers, but their testing numbers were very similar.

DL (1)
Kingsley Keke - Texas A&M - 5th round

Barring injury, the Packers should have a fairly solid and deep DL this season. Keke will be another guy to add to the rotation and keep the pressure on opposing OL's. One interesting note on Keke was that he had the highest win percentage in the pass rush drills at the Senior Bowl practice week.

EDGE (2)
Rashan Gary - Michigan - 1st round
Greg Roberts - Baylor - UDFA

With the FA signings of the Smith's and now adding Gary, the Packers did a complete overhaul of the position in a couple of months time. Gary is a freakish athlete and it will be fun to see how Pettine decides to maximize his talents. As for UDFA's, Roberts is not one to sleep on. In watching his game tape the last couple of days I will admit to being surprised how good of player he is. In the Oklahoma game against several OLineman that were draft, he was a non-stop problem for Murray in the pocket. At 6'5"/258 pounds he was bull rushing Cody Ford right into Murray's lap. 

LB (3)
Ty Summers - TCU - 7TH round
Curtis Bolton - Oklahoma - UDFA
Randy Ramsey - Arkansas - UDFA

Things seem to have stayed the same concerning positional value with the ILB group. Summers and Bolton are very athletic and play with their hair on fire, they should be very good STer's in their rookies seasons if nothing more. I am projecting Ramsey from EDGE to the inside because of his size, there will be plenty of blitz chances from inside to give a player like Ramsey a chance to flash his skills.

CB (4)
Ka'Dar Hollman - Toledo - 6th
Nydair Rouse - West Chester - UDFA
Javien Hamilton - Mississippi - UDFA
Kabion Ento - Colorado -UDFA

CB is a position that the Packers have a fair amount of young talent at before the draft began and took the approach to add a group of raw talent to compete for end of the roster spots. Hollman was a player that tested his way onto the scene, ran a 4.38/40 and a 6.81 3-cone with a 38.5" vertical jump. After those numbers teams needed to take a second look at his play in the MAC, the raw potential is there, now can the Packers make it work for them is the question. The other 3 are basically complete unknowns, Rouse is the freakish small school guy that played CB,LB and Safety in college. Hamilton is the under performing SEC guy and Ento is a high end athlete that is converting from WR to CB.

Safety (1)
Darnell Savage - Maryland - 1st round

Savage looks like the player that may well be a high rep guy from the get-go. I don't know if he is a day one starter, but of these 20 players he would be my guess of being the closest thing to it. Pettine used a lot of three safety looks last year and I would not be surprised if that ends up being his base defense this season. If that is the case, Savage will get plenty of opportunity early on.

That is a little inventory of the new pieces they have to work with. Personally I do not see any glaring weaknesses in the 90 man roster and their seems to be competition with each group. For me now the biggest question is can MLF put it all together and make them a competitive team. In time we will know that answer.     
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 09:43:52 PM by RT »

Offline dannobanano

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2019, 03:47:41 AM »
Excellent stuff RT!

Appreciate the effort and details.

Well done.

Offline Hands

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2019, 07:02:25 AM »
Well done as usual...I would add Madison as well. He's in his first year. An added bonus for the Packers.
In the land of the blind.....the one eye man is king!

Online The GM

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2019, 10:11:36 AM »
Well done as usual...I would add Madison as well. He's in his first year. An added bonus for the Packers.

Agree, Madison is a hard guy to project, but if he can come in and contribute it would be a big plus.  Hes gotta have a good TC, but its hard not to pull for him.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2019, 11:50:40 AM »
Madison for all intents and purposes may be considered a rookie this year, BUT, the advantage he has is that he was here for the mini camps and OTA's last year, and then didn't show for Training Camp.

So he's got a head start on this years rookies.

May not be a big advantage, but it's something.

Online The GM

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2019, 12:56:09 PM »
Madison for all intents and purposes may be considered a rookie this year, BUT, the advantage he has is that he was here for the mini camps and OTA's last year, and then didn't show for Training Camp.

So he's got a head start on this years rookies.

May not be a big advantage, but it's something.

Yes, Agree to a point, this is a new coach and system, so Im not sure how much carryover he will have from last year, but being familiar with the facilities, surroundings, and some experience in that professional environment cant hurt.

Offline RT

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2019, 12:58:40 PM »
Agree that Madison probably should of been added to the rookie group, they have 20 or 21 depending on how each individual wants to look at it.

A question I will ask here is, how many of this group of 21 will get a second contract? How many will get a second contract with the Packers? Each of the past summers when it is the slow time of year from the NFL,  Daniel Jeremiah has done a look back at drafts from 4 years ago and grades them after players have actually played. He is grading the GM's for the most part because for him the most important part is 'did the player get a second contract' and it does not need to be a second contract with the team that drafted him. A second contract means the player is a NFL caliber player and the GM get a +1 for drafting such a player versus a player who is a bust. The GM supplies the talent and it is up to the coaching staff to do something with it from there.   

Offline Hands

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2019, 06:35:37 AM »
Good question about second contract. I would guess the following:
Savage- (don't think they will/can provide 2nd contracts to both 1st round guys)
Williams-RB
Sternberger-TE
Jenkins-OG
Summers-ST ace
Yosh Nijman-OT
In the land of the blind.....the one eye man is king!

Offline RT

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2019, 07:43:48 AM »
Good question about second contract. I would guess the following:
Savage- (don't think they will/can provide 2nd contracts to both 1st round guys)
Williams-RB
Sternberger-TE
Jenkins-OG
Summers-ST ace
Yosh Nijman-OT

If this is the end results it will have been an amazing draft for the Packers. Bill Polian has said many times, if you can get 2 from every draft it is a successful draft and 3 is a great draft. This season the 2015 class was available for second contracts and this is some results of past draft classes for the Packers starting with that 2015 class.

2015 - Zero second contracts with the Packers, contracts with other teams are Montgomery, Ryan and Hundley. Randall had his fifth year option picked up by the Browns.

2014 - Adams and Linsley with the Packers, Clinton-Dix and Richard Rodgers with others.

2013 - Bakhtiari and Taylor with the Packers, Tretter, Hyde, Jones and Lacy with others.

2012 - Perry and Daniels with the Packers, Hayward with other.

2011 - Cobb with the Packers, House and Guy with others.

2010 - Bulaga, Neal, Burnett, Starks and Shields with the Packers, Newhouse and Wilson with others.

2009 - Raji, Matthews, Lang and Jones with the Packers, Meredith and Wynn with others.

2008 - Nelson, Finley and Sitton with the Packers, Giacomini and Flynn with others.

2007 - Jones, Bishop and Crosby with the Packers, Jackson, Barbre and Harris with others.

2006 - Hawks, Jennings and Jolly with the Packers, Colledge, Spitz, Blackmon, Culver and Tollefson with others.

2005 - Rodgers and Collins with the Packers, Poppinga and Montgomery with others.

2004 - Zero with the Packers, Williams and Wells with others.

That is 12 years, but I do think history is telling when it comes to second contracts given to players from their draft classes.

   

Offline craig

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2019, 08:59:27 AM »
...If this is the end results it will have been an amazing draft for the Packers. Bill Polian has said many times, if you can get 2 from every draft it is a successful draft and 3 is a great draft. ....

Just to be clear, Polian was NOT referring to 2nd contracts!  Montgomery, Ryan, and Hundley are on second contracts, and Randall will be in another year.  That is not quite what Polian was referring to as a "great" draft.  :):):)

Offline RT

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2019, 09:42:39 AM »
...If this is the end results it will have been an amazing draft for the Packers. Bill Polian has said many times, if you can get 2 from every draft it is a successful draft and 3 is a great draft. ....

Just to be clear, Polian was NOT referring to 2nd contracts!  Montgomery, Ryan, and Hundley are on second contracts, and Randall will be in another year.  That is not quite what Polian was referring to as a "great" draft.  :):):)

Polian was referring to starters, to starting players worth giving a second contract to. We had this conversation before in regards to Lowry, if a player is not a core player he does not get a second contract (and yes there is the rare exception to that rule, James Starks was one). Polian's comments may not directly say anything about a second contract, but if the 2 or 3 players he is referring to are not worth a second contract then those are not successful or great drafts. IMO

Online SET4YRS

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2019, 10:31:27 AM »
...If this is the end results it will have been an amazing draft for the Packers. Bill Polian has said many times, if you can get 2 from every draft it is a successful draft and 3 is a great draft. ....

Just to be clear, Polian was NOT referring to 2nd contracts!  Montgomery, Ryan, and Hundley are on second contracts, and Randall will be in another year.  That is not quite what Polian was referring to as a "great" draft.  :):):)

Polian was referring to starters, to starting players worth giving a second contract to. We had this conversation before in regards to Lowry, if a player is not a core player he does not get a second contract (and yes there is the rare exception to that rule, James Starks was one). Polian's comments may not directly say anything about a second contract, but if the 2 or 3 players he is referring to are not worth a second contract then those are not successful or great drafts. IMO

 Great discussion. The second contract rule is a great way to judge drafts for teams building rosters. However, once a team has a franchise QB and their core players under contract, the rules change due to the salary cap. To say a team has a bad draft because they financially can't keep the players they drafted isn't right.

 You can see a drop off where they paid Rodgers and got caught in the catch-22 Perry contract. Surely they wanted to keep Hayward and Hyde, not enough cap space for the future. So, players drafted that are successful on other teams count for draft credibility when cap restrictions hit the team, to me at least. That's where you look at drafted players like HHCD, someone that started 5 years, that's a very successful pick.

 Also, still a lot of Zombo, Moll and Palmer type players that stuck around the league for a long time that TT brought in for a start that are unmentioned. Not nitpicking, seeing this everywhere, just wanted to mention it.

 And, awesome job on the site this year RT, hope you keep at it.

Offline RT

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Re: A positional look
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2019, 11:12:28 AM »
Good points SET4YRS on Zombo Moll and Palmer, in my haste I knew I would over look some and am guessing that there are a few more undrafted types we are still missing.

I agree with most all that you are saying and is why I also listed players that signed elsewhere. Going back to my post about Daniel Jeremiah and his grading of drafts 4 years later, I posted 'a second contract means the player is a NFL caliber player and the GM gets a +1 for drafting such a player versus a player who is a bust. Some people are going to get sidetracked by some of the names that have gotten a 2nd contract because of bias toward curtain players, but that would be missing the point.

The part I slightly disagree on is not being able to re-sign a core player because of a matured QB contract, I don't believe the Packers ever really didn't re-sign a core player they truly wanted to keep. You are right in that Hayward and/or Hyde (remember that neither were standouts with the Packers, good but not what they were with their next team) may have been re-signed if the QB was on a rookie contract, but he wasn't and those decisions are made accordingly.