September 14, 2019, 10:29:30 PM

Author Topic: The Roster going forward  (Read 948 times)

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Offline dannobanano

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The Roster going forward
« on: September 09, 2019, 12:34:22 PM »
RT made good points in the OL thread, but I thought his line of thought deserved a thread all to itself.

Let's talk Packers roster 2020 and 2021 and possible changes that may be looming on the horizon.

Starting with OL, because that's where the OL thread was leading.
As RT mentioned, Bulaga is an UFA in 2020 and Bakhtiari, Linsley, and Taylor are all UFA's in 2021.
Also, in 2020 Lucas Patrick will be a RFA which also makes him an UFA in 2021. So ask yourself, does he have future value and fit in with the Packers longer term plans and may be worth an extension come 2021, or is he a fringe player that may not even make the team in 2020?
Alex Light will be a RFA in 2021 and UFA in 2022.

Next, TE.
Marcedes Lewis is an UFA in 2020. Robert Tonyan and Malcolm Johnson are both RFA.
Jimmy Graham is an UFA in 2021, but letting him go in 2020 saves the Packers $8M in cap space, which they may need. More on that later.

WR.
Geronimo Allison and Trevor Davis will both be UFA in 2020, and Kumerow/Lazard will be ERFA's.
There are no WR's of any kind of FA in 2021.

RB/FB.
Danny Vitale will be an UFA in 2020.
Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are UFA's in 2021.

QB.
Tim Boyle will be a RFA in 2021

DL.
Tyler Lancaster and Fadol Brown will be ERFA's in 2020.
Kenny Clark and Montravious Adams are UFA's in 2021.

OLB.
Kyler Fackrell is an UFA in 2020.
Nothing in 2021.

ILB.
Blake Martinez and BJ Goodson are UFA's in 2020.
Nothing in 2021.

CB.
Tramon Williams is an UFA in 2020. Tony Brown and Chandon Sullivan are both ERFA's.
Kevin King as an UFA in 2021.

S.
Ibrahim Campbell is an UFA in 2020. Will Redmond will be a RFA.
Raven Greene is a RFA in 2021.

ST.
Mason Crosby in an UFA in 2020.
Nothing in 2021.

The Packers currently have about $10M in 2019 cap space, and are projected to have $17M, in addition to that $10M, in 2021 based on an estimate that the salary cap will rise approx $10M for 2020.

The first elephant in the room goiong forward is getting Kenny Clark signed to a contract extension. His 5th year option in 2020 will cost somewhere around $8M. But getting a new contract done this next off season could lower that number for 2020. Maybe not significantly, but if they can lower his 2020 cap hit by $2M-$3M it won't hurt. This is where letting Jimmy Graham go in 2020 would help a lot. It would give Gute flexibility in both structuring of Clarks contract as well as extending other key players or signing a FA.
Blake Martinez will be another high priority signing, IMO.
Danny Vitale may get an extension, if he's not asking too much. But he hasn't earned it yet. This season, he's playing for a new contract. Too soon to tell.
ESB comes back healthy in 2020 to supplant Allison and Shepherd replaces Davis.
2020 UFA's that will most likely not be retained (IMO) are as follows. Brian Bulaga, Tramon Williams, Marcedes Lewis, Mason Crosby, Kyler Fackrell, Geronimo Allison, Trevor Davis. Ibrahim Campbell, and BJ Goodson.
The only RFA's are Patrick and Redmond. Packers will likely tender both, but it I'm betting it's the minimum tender.
All the 2020 ERFA's will be kept, unless they find upgrade replacements that come just as cheap. Of that group, the one that I see as on thin ice would be Malcolm Johnson.

For 2021.
I know it's not impossible for GB to move on from Billy Turner, but if they did, it could mean an entire change over of the 2019 OL by 2021, and that would suck.
If GB moves on from Bulaga in 2020, and then Taylor in 2021. What if they can't come to agreements with Linsley and Bakhtiari as well? And then terminate Turners contract? It may be possible that GB moves on from Taylor in 2020, or as RT alludes to, that he could be traded in season this year. A 2019 trade would free up $4.1M immediately. Releasing him next year would save $4.5M. Every little bit helps.
A lot of question marks, and moving parts, right there.
I'm thinking Turner stays, especially if they move on from Taylor. If they move on from Turner, then Taylor stays. Losing both Bak and Linsley would be devastating, but I think that one of them will be kept, and if I had to guess right now it would be Bak (sorry Corey).
What will be key to follow here will be then continued development of Alex Light and PS member Yosh Nijman. Can one of them step in at RT in 2020? That could impact the Packers draft plans in 2020 and 2021 when it comes to OL. It would allow Gute to draft interior OL first, rather than OT first. Finding another solid interior OL, like Jenkins, may be easier than an OT draft pick who could start immediately.
Which ever way you slice it, there will not be enough money in the cap to keep all three of Taylor, Linsley, and Bakhtiari. My guess is only one of them stays.
Finally we get to Kevin King, Montravious Adams, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams.
IMO, all four of these players are auditioning, in 2019, for a possible contract extension in 2021.
King and Jones need to prove they can stay healthy for an entire season. If they can't stay out of the trainers room, I find it hard to believe they will get extensions no matter how talented they both are.
Adams, it seems, is finally taking the game seriously. He's starting and has this season to prove he's a keeper. Keke is waiting in the wings, and good things have been said about the growth and improvement of Looney (on the PS).
Then there is Jamaal Williams. As much as you can like the guy and the effort he gives, at this point he's a JAG. He has to show much more to get another contract.


With these thought in mind the Packer draft strategy could look something like:

2020 - (in order of importance) TE, Interior OL, ILB, OLB, RB, S, QB?
They need a true Combo-TE. Tonyan and Sternberger are both Move-TE's.
Interior OL, only if Light and Nijman develop, although Turner (because of his length) may be better suited at OT. Either way, it places a high imprtance on Interior OL.
Can't keep relying on Burks to become what they drafted him to be. They need another potential starting caliber ILB that can compete to start next to Martinez.
Need depth at OLB and S.
Finding the right type of RB to fit MLF's offense is important for 2020, but even more important for 2021.
It could be a good QB class in 2020. Do you pick a possible heir apparent? Or, wait? Don't be surprised if they pull then trigger on one in the first 3 rounds.
My guess is they sign a kicker from the current FA's available, or bring in an UDFA after the draft. 2019 will be Crosby's final year as a Packer.

2021 - OT, RB,QB, WR, CB, OLB
Solving the long term question at OT moves to the front of the priorities.
Is Jones the guy? If they feel he's not the guy or can't stay healthy all 16 games, finding a better option moves way up the board in 2021.
If they don't draft the next/future QB in 2020, then this becomes a very high need in 2021. Maybe even the highest.
Davante will be 28 by the 2021 season. Do they have another #1 type WR on the roster? No, not at they moment. This  becomes an issue by 2021.
Does King stay of leave? Either way, you plan for the latter.
Continue to build depth at OLB. Pettine need quality depth depth at that spot.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 12:38:08 PM by dannobanano »

Offline RT

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2019, 03:13:34 PM »
Nice work danno.

You were wondering about Malcolm Johnson, but he has been released and the Packers and his agent are just working out the injury settlement. Probably will disappear off the IR sometime this week. Small thing in the big picture, but he is not part of any future plan.

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2019, 08:47:17 AM »
Nice work danno. I agree with a lot of your analysis.

Personally I'd go OT early in the 2020 draft (1st or 2nd round). Bulaga might get a run where he stays healthy, and if he is still at a high level, he can get a 3 yr extension. Even one more long(ish) term injury though, and I doubt he sees another contract in Green Bay. The Packers need certainty at the RT position with Rodgers now 35.

T.Williams. Gone after this year, purely due to age. He has had a great career and still plays pretty good ball, but I can't see him playing at age 37.

Blake Martinez. A real 50/50 keep/release guy. The Packers don't seem to like spending big on the ILB position, so while his play (and continued availability) is comfortably good enough for him to be retained, the final decision to keep or let him go, is probably down to $.

Fackrell is the kind of guy you keep until you get someone better. He might be around for a while yet.

Geronimo Allison. Another $ decision. The Packers may well only keep one of Allison/Kumerow in the next few years. With Trevor Davis, Shepherd might supplant him, but with the jump Davis has taken as a WR, I could see both him and Shepherd retained. That decision will be easier to make if Davis plays a good number of snaps this season, so the team have a good idea of how he fares against NFL level players. With Adams, MVS, ESB, one of Kumerow/Allison, Davis, Shepherd and Lazard as candidates you still have 7 guys, so at least one more of these fail to make the 53.

Assuming the Packers lose Crosby, Bulaga, T.Williams, Lewis, Graham, and Allison or Kumerow, after 2019, in the 2020 draft I'd go something like this with their 8 picks:
OT, ILB, TE, S, K, RB, QB, OLB


If the Packers need to save more money, then Linsley, with a $10.5m  cap hit in 2020 might be a target, in which case there is either another high IOL pick, or Jenkins and Patrick play guard and center between them, with Madison and Light as the chief backups (and a later developmental OL pick in the draft). CB is possible, the Packers are deep there but use lots of DBs on the field in nickle and dime, so a replacement for T.Williams is very possible. RB is another wild card. LaFleur likes his run game, so if they see a quality RB in there round 2, it is very possible they take him.

Instead of the above draft scenario, it could easily be OT, RB, S, ILB, TE, OG, CB, K. In this case the TE would either be a raw developmental high RAS type receiving TE, or a more polished blocking TE to replace Lewis. There really are a lot of ways the Packers could go, as their roster is more complete than it has been for many years, allowing lots of variation depending largely on who is kept and who released.

In 2021, the one thing that might loom large is the hunt for a new QB. That could trump everything else, take up multiple picks, who knows.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 09:23:38 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Online ricky

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2019, 09:51:08 AM »
Why a TE? Has Sternberger turned out to be a bust? Let's pump the brakes on an early draft pick at that position, since Tonyan is also still under contract. Linsley is probably gone. Not only the cap space, but the team just doesn't value the position very much. Re-signing Bakhtiari, unless he slips considerably this year, is a priority. Yes, he's be expensive. Yes, it's worth spending money on an All-Pro at arguably the most important position on the OL. Meanwhile, definitely expect there to be a lot of vets gone, but so far, Gutekunst has shown he knows how to draft players that can actually perform immediately. Starters at DB (Alexander) and S (Savage) have shown that. Also, his willingness to dip into FA is a refreshing change. Not going overboard, but so far, getting good bang for the FA buck. Definitely look into getting Rosen from Miami. He needs a mentor (Rodgers) who might be willing show him how to become an effective NFL starter. Sure, there is the competitive angle, but Rodgers also has to have some memories of how he was treated by Favre, and not want to repeat that unpleasant experience when he is on the other side of the "changing of the guard." Football, as someone noted, is a game of replacement. And this team is going to look very different in two or three years. As is every team in the league.
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Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2019, 10:12:17 AM »
@ricky. A TE because I believe Graham and Lewis are gone, leaving only Tonyan and Sterberger, who are both move TEs. they need another guy, either a higher pick spent on a more complete TE who can block, or a later pick on a guy who most likely can only block, or a blocking TE veteran, a slightly younger version of Lewis.

Alexander looked good in his rookie year (though he made mistakes as you would expect). Savage looked good as well in the little action we have seen, but both were first round picks. For every Alexander or Savage, there are two or more like Sternberger, Gary, Madison, Burks, D.Williams, who need time

I like the idea of QB Rosen if he isn't really expensive (and he shouldn't be).  At least he has a chance to shine behind a proper defensive line, it might be exactly what he needs after the Cards and Dolphins.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 10:16:14 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Online The GM

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2019, 11:22:58 AM »


Blake Martinez. A real 50/50 keep/release guy. The Packers don't seem to like spending big on the ILB position, so while his play (and continued availability) is comfortably good enough for him to be retained, the final decision to keep or let him go, is probably down to $.


I think you find a way to keep this guy.  Hell, they cant find a guy to play the other ILB, let alone looking for 2 ILBs   Martinez is pretty productive.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2019, 01:15:01 PM »


Blake Martinez. A real 50/50 keep/release guy. The Packers don't seem to like spending big on the ILB position, so while his play (and continued availability) is comfortably good enough for him to be retained, the final decision to keep or let him go, is probably down to $.


I think you find a way to keep this guy.  Hell, they cant find a guy to play the other ILB, let alone looking for 2 ILBs   Martinez is pretty productive.

A lot will depend on how he plays this season and if Pettine says he needs him.

I think Pettine has cred with Gute and will especially be true if this defense plays at/near elite level this year.

But right now, Martinez is a key kog in the machine.

Offline B

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2019, 02:05:40 PM »
This picture will come into focus as the 2019 season unfolds.

Injuries, unexpected performances (Good and/or poor), market factors... will all play important parts in how this picture emerges. Fun speculations but all out of context and lacking important data.
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Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2019, 02:08:13 PM »
This picture will come into focus as the 2019 season unfolds.

Injuries, unexpected performances (Good and/or poor), market factors... will all play important parts in how this picture emerges. Fun speculations but all out of context and lacking important data.

............but looking at things early, mostly too early, is what forums are all about.  ;D
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Offline B

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2019, 07:09:24 PM »
Seems to me that posters are in off-season, or at best pre-season form. We just came off of huge divisional win against the oldest and most storied NFL rivalry. Add to that we are 5 days away from playing what from many is our most hated rival, are border foes the Vikings.

It seems like there is many opportunities for great football discussion, but instead we seem to be kind of stuck in the groove of the off season record of speculating roster decisions in the future. Just saying...
The Green Bay Packers never lost a football game.
They just ran out of time.
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Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2019, 02:35:39 AM »
That's true, but when people are satisfied about something (and an away win against the Bears is huge, make no mistake about that) it doesn't generate so much discussion, whereas adversity brings posters out of the woodwork to comment on it at length. Just the way people are.
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

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Offline RT

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2019, 07:23:56 AM »
Seems to me that posters are in off-season, or at best pre-season form. We just came off of huge divisional win against the oldest and most storied NFL rivalry. Add to that we are 5 days away from playing what from many is our most hated rival, are border foes the Vikings.

It seems like there is many opportunities for great football discussion, but instead we seem to be kind of stuck in the groove of the off season record of speculating roster decisions in the future. Just saying...

To each their own B. The advent of fantasy football has bred a new breed of fan that is far more interested in the building of a team then actually watching a team play a game and that percentage of the fanbase showing interest in their team is probably grown to a fairly high percentage. Those in it for just the love of the game are a dying breed. It is by design and all part of the marketing big picture from the NFL. Selling just the game has its limitations, but selling the fan on building their own and having a mental ownership is much more captivating and profitable. 

Offline Bignutz

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2019, 01:22:29 PM »
Seems to me that posters are in off-season, or at best pre-season form. We just came off of huge divisional win against the oldest and most storied NFL rivalry. Add to that we are 5 days away from playing what from many is our most hated rival, are border foes the Vikings.

It seems like there is many opportunities for great football discussion, but instead we seem to be kind of stuck in the groove of the off season record of speculating roster decisions in the future. Just saying...

To each their own B. The advent of fantasy football has bred a new breed of fan that is far more interested in the building of a team then actually watching a team play a game and that percentage of the fanbase showing interest in their team is probably grown to a fairly high percentage. Those in it for just the love of the game are a dying breed. It is by design and all part of the marketing big picture from the NFL. Selling just the game has its limitations, but selling the fan on building their own and having a mental ownership is much more captivating and profitable.

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Offline morango

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #13 on: Today at 07:30:14 AM »

To each their own B. The advent of fantasy football has bred a new breed of fan that is far more interested in the building of a team then actually watching a team play a game and that percentage of the fanbase showing interest in their team is probably grown to a fairly high percentage. Those in it for just the love of the game are a dying breed. It is by design and all part of the marketing big picture from the NFL. Selling just the game has its limitations, but selling the fan on building their own and having a mental ownership is much more captivating and profitable.

Ain’t it the truth.

Well I am the kind of old-school (yet hybrid) fan who can't stand fantasy football, only cares about the packers, but still is really interested in the draft and roster-building.

In my opinion, the OL, especially OT, should be the main priority in the 2020 and 2021 drafts. Bulaga is 31, Bakhtiari is about to turn 28, and the packers are an injury away from disaster. As a general rule, I feel like building a superior offensive line should always be the main goal of a front office once the quarterback is in place. A dominant OL can set the tone for a whole team, creating a smash-mouth attitude on the field and leading a locker room with hard work and grit.

I am glad the packers selected Elgton Jenkins in 2019 2nd round, but was really hoping for Dalton Risner, who could start at guard for a couple years, but eventually become a tackle. I am not saying I would rather have have him than Darnell Savage (packers would have needed to use that pick to get him), because I think Savage will be great, but it's just my thinking.

Building a great O-Line is a pretty good way to get to championship contention if you have the quarterback already.

Online craig

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Re: The Roster going forward
« Reply #14 on: Today at 10:10:50 AM »
Morango, I'm in the same boat in terms of interest in roster future.  Because I'm interested in the Packers, no fantasy interest.  I think it's similar to the reason we get interested in back-of-roster guys in camp; Buildican interest.  Should we keep Madison or McCray or Pankey?  That's a Packers Buildican question, not a Nowacrat question or a Fantasy issue.  Moore, Lazard, Shepherd?  Those are Buildican questions, don't expect any to be catching passes this year.