November 30, 2020, 11:55:08 AM

Author Topic: 2021 Packer Free Agency  (Read 194 times)

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Offline dannobanano

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2021 Packer Free Agency
« on: November 14, 2020, 09:47:41 AM »
The cap is going to be tight.

In fact, GB will likely have to cut bait on some players to get under the 2021 cap (~$175M), and to try to create some cap space to extend one or two of their own pending free agents.

Who are the pending Packer free agents?

Key:
* - means someone to keep
? - means "maybe", but only under the right/certain conditions
xx - means "no interest"

(In order of priority.........IMHO)
UFA:
David Bakhtiari *
Aaron Jones ?
Kevin King  ?
Corey Linsely
Jamaal Williams ?
Tyler Ervin ?
Will Redmond ?
Lane Taylor ?
Billy Winn
Montravious Adams
Marceded Lewis
James Burgess

RFA:
Bob Tonyan *
Tyler Lancaster *
Raven Greene ?
Parry Nickerson ?

ERFA:
Allan Lazard *
Chandon Sullivan *
Yosh Nijman *
Malik Taylor *
Randy Ramsey
Dexter Williams
Jake Hanson ?
Kabion Ento *


IMO, Bakhtiari is the biggest "must keep" of the UFA group. The only way I don't see this happening is if he is asking for more "guaranteed money" than the Packers are willing to part with. The AAV of a contract is just window dressing these days. It's nothing more than a **** measuring contest for a player to puff out his chest as the highest paid player at his position (which last about 15 minutes until the next big contract is signed).
As long as they can come to terms on guaranteed money, the rest will fall into place. A signing bonus, along with guaranteed money in the 2nd and 3rd years of the contract should allow the Packers a path to make signing him to an extension workable.

The same principle could be applicable to both Aaron Jones and Kevin King. However, Kings injury history will diminish his value as to what GB will define as "workable". And Aaron Jones, even though he is a dynamic chess piece for the offense, may get caught in a comparison to how SF has handled their RB's (in a similar offense) where their top RB's (Coleman, Mostert, and McKinnon) are being paid (2020) $4.5M, $3.3M, and $2.9M respectively. Gute may feel that adding a draft pick to pair with Dillon and Patrick Taylor may be the way to go here. Not saying that's what's going to happen! Just saying that there's a lot of moving parts to this decision.
Gute may be of the opinion that the blocking scheme that Adam Stenavich brought with him to GB from SF may be enough of a reason to not over pay for a RB in this offense. You have to admit, that in spite of the frequent personnel changes along the OL, they have performed above and beyond expectations.

Jamaal Williams and Tyler Ervin both fall into this same catagory as Aaron Jones. Of Williams and Ervin, I like Ervin a little better because of the multiple things he can do (RB/WR/ST's)

Will Redmond has been a sort of jack-of-all-trades in the secondary for GB. But because of other young talent at S/DB he may be replaceable if his asking price is too high.

Lane Taylor's market value should be fairly low due to his injury history. Bring him back on a low 1 yr "prove it" deal if he's amenable.

Of the RFA's, Tonyan has proven the best of the group. I think they would have to give him a 2nd round tender to keep him. Anything lower, and he'll get sniped by someone else. Lancaster could be replaceable, but he's been an o.k. fit as a rotational DL. Raven Greene has to many holes in his game for how they use him, and Nickerson is too much of an unknown. These two and Lancaster only come back on minimum tenders.

Finally, of the ERFA's, you absolutely keep Lazard and Sullivan. And since the cost is minimal for ERFA's they should keep Nijman, Taylor, and Ento. All three are still developing talent and worth the investment. Hanson is a question mark only because we could see Gute draft another Center in this next draft. So, they may keep Hanson as an EFRA, but he may not stick come final cutdown's.

All the players that had a line through their names are players that I would not be surprised to see leave GB, either as UFA's or as untendered FA's.

Now, creating cap space to 2021.

This is list of "possibles" that could end up being released for cap reasons, and the amount of 2021 cap savings GB would realized with that player being released.

Preston Smith - $8M
Chritian Kirksey - $6M
Rick Wagner - $4.25M
Dean Lowry - $3.3M
Josh Jackson - $1.33M

GB is currently ~$5M over the proposed 2021 cap of ~$175M.
If my math is correct, what GB currently has for cap carryover to 2021 will negate the overage they currently face.

This would mean that if all the above players were to be released, GB would have ~ $21M-$22M in usable cap space for 2021, which should be more than enough to sign one, and maybe two of their most important FA's (and don't be surprised if it's King over Jones if King tests the market and he doesn't get any blockbuster offers. He make come back on a modest 1 yr deal and test the market again in 2022. I's be in favor of that)

Finally, there is the final year of Davante Adams contract in 2021. His cap number if $16.6M. The non-guaranteed amount is $13M. Does it make sense to extend his early in 2021 and reduce that cap number by $4M-$6M to gain some more cap space to keep an Aaron Jones, or someone else?

Lot's of things to consider.

Online ricky

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Re: 2021 Packer Free Agency
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2020, 11:32:09 AM »
danno, this has been hashed and rehashed. But yes, it's still a valid topic. Bakhtiari is priority #1. And, as always, how the contract is structured will be crucial. King? Too injury prone; unless he comes in at a price that makes him easy to cut, he goes. Jones? A fifth round pick; versatile, but  you simply don't overpay RB's; and if you do, you soon regret it (McCaffrey, Elliott). I'd do my best to re-sign Linsley, but he'll probably be gone due being worth more than the Packers can pay. Williams is my choice though as a keeper. I'll freely admit a "man crush" on the guy; he is a terrific receiver, blocker and better than average runner. Tonyan has also climbed the "should keep" list. Greene should also be there, but not as impactful. As far as the ERFA's, I'm not sure Taylor is a keeper. Maybe he'll become something, but unless either MVS or ESB is on the cutting block, I'd be more interested in seeing what the next draft delivers.

On a side note, here is Preston Smith's contract. From my reading, he would be $8 million dead cap, and a gain of $8 million in salary. Not a cap gain of $8 million. Maybe I'm totally misreading this, and if so, please correct me.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/preston-smith-16762/
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Offline dannobanano

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Re: 2021 Packer Free Agency
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2020, 06:39:09 PM »
ricky, I prefer to use Over The Cap.

https://overthecap.com/player/preston-smith/3886/

The calculation is that his cap cost for 2021 is $16M.

If they release him they count the rest of his signing bonus against the 2021 cap ($4M + $4M = $8M), but they save the rest of the 2021 cap charge ($8M).

So, they actually gain $8M from what was already committed to the cap.

Online ricky

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Re: 2021 Packer Free Agency
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2020, 09:19:44 PM »
ricky, I prefer to use Over The Cap.

https://overthecap.com/player/preston-smith/3886/

The calculation is that his cap cost for 2021 is $16M.

If they release him they count the rest of his signing bonus against the 2021 cap ($4M + $4M = $8M), but they save the rest of the 2021 cap charge ($8M).

So, they actually gain $8M from what was already committed to the cap.

Thank you. I knew there was something wrong with my take; thanks for pointing it out. $8 million is indeed a good start. Kirksey adds another $6 million, according to Over The Cap. You're right- much more user friendly. A "karma bump" is in order.
"My hopes are not always realized, but I always hope." Ovid