2020 free agency / beyond GB FA's

[dannobanano]

Right now, without adding any free agents in 2020, the Packers have $142M on the books for salaries in 2021.

Their current cap for 2020 is at $182M.

So that's $40M without factoring in any increase in the cap going forward.

At the moment, I could see them pass on extending Linsley and look to draft another C/G while they still have Patrick under contract.

That would mean the key 2021 FA's they would need to sign would be Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Kevin King. While I like Williams, he is a 2nd tier player, and keeping him would depend on what he's looking for in a contract extension. There's always RB's to draft and plug/play.

The only other 2021 UFA I haven't mentioned here is Montravious Adams, and I doubt he's in the future plans. He may not even make the 2020 squad.

In 2021, they have 4 RFA's that could eat up $6M - $8M of space if they decide to tender them all, and 13 ERFA's who average about $450K-$500K per player.

Based on this, I don't see a lot of problems in managing these next two years.

I disagree on the Williams opinion, but then he's probably my favorite "lunch pail" player on the team. However, you calculations don't take into account any increase in salaries for guys already on the team (or do they?). Not trying to over-argue this, but if the team really wants to look into getting some cap space, they'd have to be radical/realistic, and look at moving on from Rodgers after 2021 (next year), when they'd save over $25 million in cap space- enough to sign a stop gap QB, and develop a longer term replacement. A gutsy call by Gutey, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks. And for a possible replacement, if not Boyle, how about bringing in Josh Rosen? Or having both on the roster, and see if they can be developed into viable QB's? As the old saying goes, better to get rid of a guy a year too early...

Yes, my post does take into consideration for pay increases for ALL players currently under contract in 2021.

All you have to do, to confirm, is go look at OTC for the 2021 season.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

It lists all players under contract in 2021, and that number comes out to $141,977,677 of committed cap for 2021.
It also show Team Cap Space of $0.
Why?
Because the current CBA ends at the end of the 2020 season.
If there is a lock out, this is a mute point.
But, if they reach agreement on an extension of a new CBA, then isn't it likely that the new CBA cap limit for 2021, and beyond, would exceed the projected 2020 cap limit of ~$196M-$200M?

[ricky]

Yes, my post does take into consideration for pay increases for ALL players currently under contract in 2021.

All you have to do, to confirm, is go look at OTC for the 2021 season.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

It lists all players under contract in 2021, and that number comes out to $141,977,677 of committed cap for 2021.
It also show Team Cap Space of $0.
Why?
Because the current CBA ends at the end of the 2020 season.
If there is a lock out, this is a mute point.
But, if they reach agreement on an extension of a new CBA, then isn't it likely that the new CBA cap limit for 2021, and beyond, would exceed the projected 2020 cap limit of ~$196M-$200M?

Sorry for doubting you. I should have known that you would have all your "i's" dotted and 't's" crossed. Thank you.

[dannobanano]

ricky, no need to apologize.

You weren't sure, and that's what questions are for.

As for me?! I'm wrong about stuff my fair share of the time. I appreciate it when people fact check me, and when I'm wrong it helps me to learn.

Feel free to follow up on this stuff. If I've missed/misunderstood something, I want to know.

Thanks for being gracious.

[mancl]

In addition to the players that will be FA's in a few weeks teams are releasing players usually for cap reasons.  These are players teams could sign immediately The Bears released Taylor Gabriel today who MLF knows well.  I'd think the Packers would at least give his agent a call

[ricky]

In addition to the players that will be FA's in a few weeks teams are releasing players usually for cap reasons.  These are players teams could sign immediately The Bears released Taylor Gabriel today who MLF knows well.  I'd think the Packers would at least give his agent a call

A slot receiver maybe, 29 years old, on his third team, and comes in at 5'7" and 168 pounds. And he apparently hasn't been used as a returner. If he is quick and able to make sudden cuts, ala Welker or Edelman, fine. But he is on his third team, starting with the Browns, but also Atlanta and more recently the Bears. No one seems to have figure out how to effectively use his skill set. Maybe MLF has the key.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GabrTa00.htm

[dannobanano]

I think that MLF/Gute would maybe want to try and get a contract extension done for Tyler Ervin rather than pursue Gabriel.

Consider these nuggets on comparing the two players:
1) Ervin is bigger (5-10/192) and more durable, but just as fast/twitchy as Gabriel.
2) Ervin came in late enough last year that he was primarily a returner, but they still fit him into a few sub-packages like jet sweep, etc. Now, with a full off-season in learning the system he could realistically be cast in the Slot-WR role for 2020.
3) Ervin is also 3 yrs younger than Gabriel at age 26.
4) Ervin will likely cost less than Gabriel (which is a factor with the limited cap space they may have to work with. Look up the 30 percent rule, because the Packers could be dramatically impacted by it with the Clark, and maybe the Bulaga contracts)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/what-is-the-30-percent-rule-and-how-will-it-affect-the-packers/ar-BB10arU0

[ricky]

By all means, re-sign Ervin if possible. But I've been rethinking the Bulaga situation. IF the Packers drafted a RT, then re-signed Veldheer, and the draftee proved he was able to move into the lineup earlier than expected (like Bakhtiari and Jenkins), then they'd maintain a strong OL to protect AR, and gain some cap breathing room to address other issues. Would it be a gamble? Absolutely. Should they take the chance? I'm leaning toward "yes." Because Bulaga could become the next Josh Sitton very quickly- gone, then injured and re-injured, and he's someone else's problem.

[dannobanano]

I'm in favor of keeping Veldheer as well, but they don't know what is asking price is going to be if he's anointed the starter.

In 2019 he came in November but wasn't activated until later. GB took advantage of a roster exemption rule with him. His 2019 base salary was $1.5M and the Packers were only charged $519K. His 2020 cost will be mostly definitely higher. Question is...….."How much?"

I was hoping he would be a cheaper "bridge" alternative to allowing Bulaga to walk and drafting a prospect RT.

Because of the "30 percent rule" the Packers may have to rethink a number of things between now and free agency.

I no longer discount the option of releasing Linsely and putting Patrick at Center. Keeping Taylor and putting him back at G and moving Jenkins to RT for 2020. Then draft both a Guard and a RT in this draft.

Releasing Graham and Linsley would give Gute an additional $16.5M added to the current $23.9M of cap space to work with, and he may need it if he has to front load contracts in 2020 in order to comply with the 30 Percent Rule. It may also mean that they wait on extending Kenny Clark until a new CBA has been ratified.

There's a lot of "stuff" swirling out there that has to be resolved before Gute can get clarity on what he can/can't do.

[The GM]

I dont think teams are going to break the bank for Bulaga.  If the Pack cant sign him prior, They might let him explore FA, and decide if he's worth what hes been offered.

[dannobanano]

Spotrac projects Bulaga getting offered a 3 yr/$30.5M free agent contract.

He grades out as one of the top RT's in the league and OT's that protect the QB are in high demand/short supply almost every year, and tend to get overpaid.

Would not surprise me is he gets offered north of $10M/yr.

I just don't see Gute ponying up beyond $9M per year, and maybe not even that high. His expiring deal was worth an average of $6.75M/yr over 5 yrs.

Just a hypothetical idea ………….. Gute could let Bulaga walk, move Jenkins to RT and also draft a RT, and then keep Lane Taylor and put him back at Guard. Since Taylor has just 2020 left on his contract, and idea like this would be a one year "patch" as opposed to a 3 yr - high cap commitment to an aging RT.

[dannobanano]

There's a lot of chatter out there about the Packers and Austin Hooper. But I'm not buying into it.

He's an overhyped TE who does many things o.k. but doesn't have any feature to his game that he can dominate at.

He and his representatives also believe that his asking price in free agency is going to reset the TE market.

Last thing I want to see is another overpriced/under-average performing TE coming to GB. And signing Hooper would probably mean signing just one player in free agency.


CHI extends Danny Trevathan, likely knowing that their limited cap resources would be insufficient to reach agreement with Nick Kwiatkoski.

I think GB has a benchmark as to what they will be willing to pay a free agent ILB, and that both Cory Littleton and Joe Schobert will exceed that benchmark.

I've advocated for Kwiatkoski for more than 3 months at this point and I think he will be the primary target in free agency.


I also believe that Gute will add a veteran DL in free agency as well, but he won't target any of the high priced/top ranked DL. He will look for a role player/run stuffer that ranks as more of a 2nd level signing, so I don't expect someone signed in the first 7-10 days of free agency.

DT names that I have been reviewing are Beau Allen, Xavier Williams, Akeem Spence, David Onyemata, Maliek Collins, and Tyeler Davison.


Also, after the draft and leading up to training camp, I think they will have a window to finally get a deal done with Kenny Clark.

It may involve releasing Lane Taylor if they feel they will have enough depth at IOL after the draft, AND/OR, they could negotiate an extension with David Bakhtiari (a year early) to reduce his 2020 cap number and free up additional space to get a deal done with Clark before the regular season starts.

Would also like to see Tyler Ervin, Will Redmond, and Marcedes Lewis brought back as well.

That's my free agency wish list as that day approaches this next week.

[The GM]

There's a lot of chatter out there about the Packers and Austin Hooper. But I'm not buying into it.

He's an overhyped TE who does many things o.k. but doesn't have any feature to his game that he can dominate at.

He and his representatives also believe that his asking price in free agency is going to reset the TE market.

Last thing I want to see is another overpriced/under-average performing TE coming to GB. And signing Hooper would probably mean signing just one player in free agency.


CHI extends Danny Trevathan, likely knowing that their limited cap resources would be insufficient to reach agreement with Nick Kwiatkoski.

I think GB has a benchmark as to what they will be willing to pay a free agent ILB, and that both Cory Littleton and Joe Schobert will exceed that benchmark.

I've advocated for Kwiatkoski for more than 3 months at this point and I think he will be the primary target in free agency.

Gute might be in a corner as far as ILBs are concerned.  Martinez is likely gone.  Littleton or Schobert could be an option but would be expensive options.   Kwiatkoski has options with other teams.  Lets say for example Gutes price threshold is exceeded and those three LBs sign elsewhere.   Gute then looks to the draft.  What if Queen and Murray are gone before 30.    You are screwed at ILB.   How important is getting one of those 3 ILBs in this free agency class?  VERY.    You need to get one of them, Do you pay Littleton or Schoberts price?  Are you willing to get into a high bidding war for Kwiatkoski?    How high do you go?   

I'm sure many of the contract issues with these FAs has been discussed with many of the teams already.   These agents at the combine arent sitting around watching the groundskeepers vacuum the field.  They are selling their FAs to the teams.  I wouldnt be surprised if many of the FAs have parameters in place for deals already and just need to fine tune them during the official pre-FA bartering period.

A complete guess on my part, but I think they are going to make a strong push for Littleton, dont know if it will be enough but I think they are going to explore that heavily.

The NFL plans to start FA next week, will the coronavirus change that?   Stay tuned!!!!

[RT]

I think the market for the ILB's will be soft in Free Agency. I read an interview with an agent from before the Senior Bowl and he said that he would not be surprised if this years ILB's were to playout like the Safety group did a few years ago. There is a good number of quality ILB's in the Draft and FA and the supply probably out weighs the demand. The first clue to that being true might be the fact that Christian Kirksey is still bouncing around unsigned. He might be the best all around ILB on the market and no one has wowed him with a deal yet. I would be surprised if the Packers paid a large contract to a ILB this year. 

[bmaafi]

Well there is uncertainty with the CBA and with covid throwing all teams for a loop with no more pro days. Also he is coming off two straight seasons on the IR so teams will weight that and are taking a hard look at his medicals. Also FA is starting on Monday so teams might just be waiting to see how the market bears out at ILB, then determining weather to go after him or a Littleton/schobert/Martinez/Kwikowski/etc..