December 01, 2020, 12:02:33 AM

Author Topic: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks  (Read 486 times)

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Online bmaafi

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2020, 10:40:00 PM »
I agree with RT.

But for the sake of discussion.............

I see no need for a Day 1 or 2 pick at OT. Billy Turner has played admirably this year as an OT and he's under contract for 2 more years. If you want depth at OT, look to the middle of Day 3 for a prospect to develop. Finding another Jon Runyan type talent on Day 3 would be just fine, thank you.

Bakhtiari, Round 4. Linsley, Round 5. Runyan, Round 6. It's now where someone is drafted; it's whether they can play the game at a high level. And, as always, let's give some credit to Adam Stenavich. Though Campen also should get a lot of credit. When you're a "draft and develop" team, you need the coaches to be able to develop the players.

Green Bay do seem to be as good at drafting O linemen as they are bad at drafting D linemen, though Spriggs is an exception to the O line and Clark is the exception on D. While I do think Green Bay is pretty good at getting guards and centers in later rounds (mostly 4th or 5th). Getting a tackle as good as Bakhtiari is the kind of good luck that rarely happens to most teams, but Green Bay haven't done badly over the years with late picks (Donald Driver and Mark Tauscher were 7th rounders and Sam Shields was an UDFA). Even so, if I were looking for a starting RT it would be somewhere in the first three rounds.


With how well Turner has played at tackle I think that position moves down the 'need board' though, maybe in the 2022 draft they draft a RT for the future. Depth on day 3 for sure though.

Online bmaafi

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2020, 10:46:32 PM »
Interesting tidbit I read today is that OG/Simon Stepaniak practiced for the first time yesterday.

He had been on the NFIR (Non-Football Injured Reserve) since the beginning of training camp.

The Packers now have 3 weeks to decide to activate him, IR him the rest of the season, or release him and try to sign him back to the practice squad.

Just a guess on my part, but I think they made this move with Corey Linsely's impending free agency in mind.

Green Bay may want to see what they have in Stepaniak, lloking towards 2021.

If he's got the goods, they may feel comfy about not using a very high draft pick on a D&D Guard in the upcoming draft.

Patrick moves into the Center's spot.

Jenkins and Runyan could be the starting OG's and Stepaniak is the reserve at OG.

It would let them focus on finding a decent swing OT to back up Bak and Turner at OT, unless Nijman has shown he's got the goods as well.

Anyway...............I thought in was an interesting development that could impact the 2021 draft strategy.

Stepaniak is coming off an ACL tear from last december, honestly I think since he hasn't been on the field in almost a year that they will end up just putting him on IR. They are probably letting in practice just to see where he is at movement wise and to see how he has implemented learning the offense on the field. They have enough depth at guard for this season. Although I agree that they will probably moved Patrick to Center next year and Runyan will take RG. I still think they will target an IOL and a OT next draft.

Online bmaafi

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2020, 10:52:29 PM »
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/154932-what-are-the-safest-positions-to-draft-in-the-first-round#:~:text=Drafting%20a%20tight%20end%2C%20offensive,Bowls%20by%20drafting%20average%20players.

I think this is a fair analysis to examine. As often as BPA comes into consideration it isn't a certainty they are.

" Drafting a tight end, offensive lineman or wide receiver in the first round is most likely to yield an average first round player, but teams rarely win Super Bowls by drafting average players."
---> The average first round player being of starter quality in the NFL.

I think this analysis allows us to brainstorm the idea that some positions do produce more valuable/productive players on average, which seems obvious but somehow often overlooked. Just because someone is better based on metrics X Y and Z doesn't mean they will be a better player in arena A. Again, an obvious point, but it's possible they aren't in the same arena: A LT does not play in the same arena as a WR or LB.

I'm stating a lot of obvious things, but I think my point is you have to approach these early round picks with a good understanding of the risk involved. You could draft a LB or WR in the first round and he'll likely end up being a solid starter or better for your team. IDK what the percentages are, but I think we can all agree both of those positions have historically shown a ton of diversity. I think you're almost just as likely to find a starter quality WR or LB outside of the first round and probably true for most positions.

It's more of an argument against BPA than it is for, because drafting BPA could be considered the "safe" option. However, it is often portrayed as lifting the veil and stacking the deck. While it may strike gold in some cases (Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams) it is more often prone to bust than boom: Datone Jones, Josh Jones, Jason Spriggs, Derrek Sherrod etc.  Now I don't think teams are that guilty of it because they are conscious of the risk, but in the media and everyday conversations it is misused or misunderstood. Example being Mel Kiper telling everyone some GM is wrong to have drafted player X over player Y.

To the topic at hand, I think it's a safe bet we'll see slim pickings at the end of the first round. Maybe one or two talented players with injury histories and a few with other red flags. That end of first round landscape is key to determining who or what they might target.

Names like Dylan Moses pop out. Marvin Wilson from FSU stands out. Terrance Marshall Jr from LSU is another, but I don't think he'll be available. Out of those three I'd go with Moses, but like Marshall I'm not sure he'll even be available. Probably looking at unglamorous OLineman or DLineman as the pick.

Sherrod was a bust at no fault of his own. That leg injury messed him up. But your point is still valid. There is a chart out there somewhere where someone did the percentages on players drafted in the 1st and their rate of success. I remember percentage wise OL taken in the 1st almost always at least became decent starters and a higher percentage versus other positions became pro bowl level players. Every team has their own way of doing things and even though Ron Wolf retired a long time ago they still follow a lot of the 'rules/guidelines' he established.

Online OneTwoSixFive

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2020, 01:31:21 AM »
Sherrod was a bust at no fault of his own. That leg injury messed him up. But your point is still valid. There is a chart out there somewhere where someone did the percentages on players drafted in the 1st and their rate of success. I remember percentage wise OL taken in the 1st almost always at least became decent starters and a higher percentage versus other positions became pro bowl level players. Every team has their own way of doing things and even though Ron Wolf retired a long time ago they still follow a lot of the 'rules/guidelines' he established.

Although I don't think this is the article you meant, bmaafi, it does give some insight into the relative success drafting different positions.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Here is a compact list.

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

The original breakdown of this (that I saw several years back) had some different numbers. I remember the QBs success rate in round one was less than 50%  (maybe 47% ?).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is an alternative breakdown. It's origin is here:  https://digitalcommons.bryant.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=honors_economics

Quarterback- Quarterback provides significant value in the first round, but then experiences
by far the sharpest decline in value after the first round. In fact, all rounds provide less than
average value for the quarterback position (100) except round 1. If one is to draft a
quarterback, you should probably do so in the first round. This follows Miklasz theory on the
importance of drafting quarterbacks in round one.

Running back- Provides above average value in the first five rounds and below average in
the last two rounds. Running back also experiences sharp declines, but significant value can
still be acquired through round three. Running backs selected after round 3 are below average
running backs (value less than 125.4).

Wide Receiver- Provides below average value for all rounds except round two. It appears
this would be the optimal round to select a wide receiver.

Tight End- Only provides above average value in round three and five; this position’s
optimal draft rounds.

Center- The center position experiences no large drops in value and does not greatly differ
from the average value for all positions in any round. Thus, selecting a player from one round
to the next probably will not yield too great a difference. Since other positions do provide
greater benefit in the earlier rounds, the position of center should be selected later in the draft.

Guard- Should be selected in the later rounds, as it provides lesser value on average in the
first three rounds and above average value in the last four rounds. Guard is one of three
positions that you can draft that provides above average value for its position (87.62) after the
third round.

Tackle- Should be selected in the early rounds, as it provides greater value on average in the
first three rounds. A team should probably focus on the first two rounds, as there is a sharp
decline in value between round two and three. It seems as the best tackles are identified and
drafted early because of this sharp decline, and selecting tackles later in the draft is probably
not worth it.

Defensive End- Provides above average value in the middle three rounds, as well as the last
round. There is a sharp decline after round five, so drafting in rounds 3-5 would be optimal.
You can still draft an above average defensive end in the fourth round.
Defensive Tackle- Is similar to center in that it does not differ too greatly from the average in
any one round and there are no drastic declines in value from round to round. Thus, there is
no optimal drafting round.

Linebacker- Rates as above average in value for all rounds and does not experience large
fluctuations in value from round to round. The decline from round one to round two is the
greatest, but teams can still acquire above average value in later rounds, so no round should
be deemed optimal.

Defensive back- Does not provide above average value until the third round and therefore,
teams would benefit from selecting these players later in the draft.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 01:58:52 AM by OneTwoSixFive »
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Online bmaafi

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2020, 03:35:24 AM »
It was something similar to the first article you posted although it was in a spreadsheet format. It is interesting about the OL though. There is a big drop after the first two rounds, then another after the 3rd. Yet GB has done well with the 3rd day guys. They definitely lucked out with Bak, LT before him was Clifton and he was a 2nd round guy. Bulaga was a 1st, even back to Earl Dotson who was a 3rd if I remember correctly. Of course Tausch was a 7th.

It does seem like the 1st round QB bust rate has gone down the last five years or so, not significantly but noticeable.

Also interesting looking at that is TE is pretty consistent through out the draft, small drops(except the 7th) from each round but noting huge. 7%, 10%, 6%, 1%, 6%, 26%. So you can get decent TE's through out the draft.

Online ricky

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2020, 08:22:44 AM »
It was something similar to the first article you posted although it was in a spreadsheet format. It is interesting about the OL though. There is a big drop after the first two rounds, then another after the 3rd. Yet GB has done well with the 3rd day guys. They definitely lucked out with Bak, LT before him was Clifton and he was a 2nd round guy. Bulaga was a 1st, even back to Earl Dotson who was a 3rd if I remember correctly. Of course Tausch was a 7th.

It does seem like the 1st round QB bust rate has gone down the last five years or so, not significantly but noticeable.

Also interesting looking at that is TE is pretty consistent through out the draft, small drops(except the 7th) from each round but noting huge. 7%, 10%, 6%, 1%, 6%, 26%. So you can get decent TE's through out the draft.

If a team consistently finds gems in the later rounds, particularly on the OL, is that luck or good drafting? Or good coaching? Or a team being willing to be patient, and understand that sometimes take longer to develop?
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Online bmaafi

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2020, 03:16:02 PM »
It was something similar to the first article you posted although it was in a spreadsheet format. It is interesting about the OL though. There is a big drop after the first two rounds, then another after the 3rd. Yet GB has done well with the 3rd day guys. They definitely lucked out with Bak, LT before him was Clifton and he was a 2nd round guy. Bulaga was a 1st, even back to Earl Dotson who was a 3rd if I remember correctly. Of course Tausch was a 7th.

It does seem like the 1st round QB bust rate has gone down the last five years or so, not significantly but noticeable.

Also interesting looking at that is TE is pretty consistent through out the draft, small drops(except the 7th) from each round but noting huge. 7%, 10%, 6%, 1%, 6%, 26%. So you can get decent TE's through out the draft.

If a team consistently finds gems in the later rounds, particularly on the OL, is that luck or good drafting? Or good coaching? Or a team being willing to be patient, and understand that sometimes take longer to develop?

I would say all of the above. Maybe not as much of the patience thing because most of the OL they draft that become starters are usually starters by year two. I think a lot of it is on the scouting department and recognizing certain traits, but they have also been lucky to have two really good coaches the last 10 years plus.

Online ricky

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2020, 08:47:12 PM »
I would say all of the above. Maybe not as much of the patience thing because most of the OL they draft that become starters are usually starters by year two. I think a lot of it is on the scouting department and recognizing certain traits, but they have also been lucky to have two really good coaches the last 10 years plus.

They have two very good OL coaches in a row. Meanwhile, they can't find a good DC for love nor money. Kind of like the Bears trying to find a decent QB. Sometimes it's baffling- why are some teams so successful, and others never seem to improve? Case in point: the Lions. Everything should be set up for them to succeed- lots of early picks; an owner who is committed to winning; but they can't seem to do anything right. And when they do, like with Barry Sanders, the guy gets so disheartened playing for a loser, he leaves the game in his prime.
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Offline mancl

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Re: 2021. Which positions get the day 1 and 2 picks
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2020, 06:57:07 AM »
We really can't speculate how they will go until free agency shakes out but I will offer my thoughts anyway.

DL- One draftnik said D line is the weakest position in the draft by far.  Gutes has said he wants to be a player in free agency so I look for him to look for D line help there.

Corner Even if King comes back on a cheap 1 year deal this is a position of weakness.  The reviews of Jackson are mixed and Hollman has shown some ability but is raw.  All thing being equal I go for a corner with the fist pick

WR  They aren't in bad shape when the top 3 are healthy.  Still would look for a wr in the early rounds,