2021 Draft Expectations

[Bud]

Obviously, but that's more hopeful than logical. You are risking a lot when drafting a player which increases the higher they're drafted. When you pick up an UDFA there's no risk at all. You might be okay with having 3 starters in a draft and your first round pick being a total bust, but that is being complacent. First round picks make or break or draft class, even if every other pick is a HOFer, you still missed the mark.

HUH? Three players in a draft are starters, but the first pick is a bust, therefore the draft was terrible? Or, going further, to quote you, even if every other pick is a HOFer, you still missed the mark. This makes no sense to me whatsoever. Am I missing something?

Good points danno. I'm not a draftnik by no means but this draft is going to be interesting on many different levels. Makes it a little more exciting and maybe a little more unknown.

[PackerJoe]

There are about 8-12 CB's who are pretty decent coming out. Some are overrated (Surtain) and some will be drafted high in the 1st rd., simply because they play CB.  I'm speculating that there will be 8 cb's in the first two rounds, mainly due to the way the game is played today.  There are three real good CB's who as of now will be available in rds. 3-4.  Those three are Cam Bynum from Cal, Elijah Molden from Washington and Ifeatu Melifonwue, Syracuse.  These guys cover, tackle, recover, have speed, read plays, have great hips, etc.  The only guy I like in the top tier of CB's is Farley from Virginia Tech.  You can have the rest. Again, alot depends on performance at Pro Days, also

As I mentioned on another post, our new DC coach came from the Rams.  They played a 4-3 defense, which means we need LB talent and DL talent and depth.  We seriously lacked a starting Nickel with capabilities to start at Safety if Savage or Amos get hurt.  We all know about King, so a new CB is in order.  Our backups  (Greene, Holman, Sullivan, etc.) leave little to be desired!

As I mentioned on another board, there will be some decent DT's available in rds. 3-5. Barmore will be gone in the top 20!

Scouts will be extra busy this year, hopefully the brass listens to them!

Some food for thought, Carolina is desperate for a QB and a CB.  Perhaps we offload King and Love to them for one of their linebackers or a 3rd rd pick!     

[RT]

They are not 'offloading' King to anyone, he is a FA.

[ricky]

They are not 'offloading' King to anyone, he is a FA.

Also, getting rid of Love without knowing his capabilities seems a bit premature. Similar to calling Gary a "bust" during his rookie season. It wouldn't surprise me if King was re-signed, quite possibly on a one year "prove it" deal. IF he was able to stay healthy the entire year, and play well, he's be much more likely to get some decent offers next year, when the cap goes back up and he "proves" his durability and ability.

[PackerJoe]

Ricky, I would agree with you in most cases, but hear my out about Love. Think about this for a second, what conference did he play in, what significant accomplishments did he have, did he make his teammates look better (3-8 his senior year), how did he perform against big time teams with NFL defenses LSU, lost, Michigan State, Lost, BYU 1-2 Boise State 0-3, Air Force 1-2, etc.  Not exactly a SEC schedule.
I'm not sure what the brass saw in him.

I have stated on these boards that there would be good QB's coming out in 2021, not named Trevor Lawrence.  The guy I really like is Kyle Trask from Florida. He had a great season against stiff, professional football defensive like teams.  He almost defeated Alabama in the SEC title game to make the final four.   Whoever gets Trask is going to get a hell of a QB.     

We'll see what the salary cap casualties bring and it might change my mind about some things, I doubt it on this one.

[OneTwoSixFive]

I'd be happy with either of the S.Carolina or Syracuse CBs.

CB Jaycee Horn 6'1", 205 (S.Carolina) is probably gone by Packers pick 29, but his partner, Israel Mukuamu (6'3", 205) should be available in the bottom of round 3 or top of round four area.

Syracuse has Ifeato Melinfonwu, who has great size at 6'2", 212 (probably a round 2 target for the Packers) and Trill Williams (another big guy at 6'2", 198) in round three.

I like Asante Samuel (Florida St.) as well, who would be a round 1 target, but he is just 5'10", 184.

Since the Packers have a real need to upgrade the DL and perhaps WR and RT as well, I agree with Packer Joe that you can certainly get good value at CB after round one, and have a good chance, even after round two. It is a pretty solid year for CBs (and OTs too) while being a poor year for the quality of DL prospects available.

Depending on who is available (of course) I'd be looking at something like DL, OT, CB, in rounds 1-3.................so the Packers will probably go Kicker, Punter, Long-snapper 

[claymaker]

Obviously, but that's more hopeful than logical. You are risking a lot when drafting a player which increases the higher they're drafted. When you pick up an UDFA there's no risk at all. You might be okay with having 3 starters in a draft and your first round pick being a total bust, but that is being complacent. First round picks make or break or draft class, even if every other pick is a HOFer, you still missed the mark.

HUH? Three players in a draft are starters, but the first pick is a bust, therefore the draft was terrible? Or, going further, to quote you, even if every other pick is a HOFer, you still missed the mark. This makes no sense to me whatsoever. Am I missing something?

The point in contention is the importance of first round picks. Would it be accurate to sum up your position as: It doesn't matter where you find talent, so long as you find it. I would agree with that in principle, but when the opportunities to obtain talent are at their highest you need to make the most of them and in some cases risk a lot.

I didn't say a draft with 3 starters and a 1st round bust was terrible, but in my view it would likely be the difference between creating a SB caliber team and a semi perennial playoff team. I used it to illustrate the importance of 1st round picks in relation to non first round picks. It's simply looking objectively at the draft, and if your first pick is a bust then it will never be as good as it could have been. I think that's pretty obvious to most people. I think the ice cream sundae metaphor is appropriate here, but I see the 1st round picks as more than just the cherry on top, they're ALL the toppings. And without the toppings all you have is a bowl of vanilla ice cream.

[bmaafi]

I'd be happy with either of the S.Carolina or Syracuse CBs.

CB Jaycee Horn 6'1", 205 (S.Carolina) is probably gone by Packers pick 29, but his partner, Israel Mukuamu (6'3", 205) should be available in the bottom of round 3 or top of round four area.

Syracuse has Ifeato Melinfonwu, who has great size at 6'2", 212 (probably a round 2 target for the Packers) and Trill Williams (another big guy at 6'2", 198) in round three.

I like Asante Samuel (Florida St.) as well, who would be a round 1 target, but he is just 5'10", 184.

Since the Packers have a real need to upgrade the DL and perhaps WR and RT as well, I agree with Packer Joe that you can certainly get good value at CB after round one, and have a good chance, even after round two. It is a pretty solid year for CBs (and OTs too) while being a poor year for the quality of DL prospects available.

Depending on who is available (of course) I'd be looking at something like DL, OT, CB, in rounds 1-3.................so the Packers will probably go Kicker, Punter, Long-snapper 

Yeah Horn will be gone in the top 20ish picks unless something weird happens. With Mukamua there are questions if he can play cb at the next level so his workouts will be important. I like Melifonwu and Williams. There are a few guys I like better though like Greg Newsome(no relation to Craig), Ambry Thomas, Eric  Stokes
I know they interviewed him but I think Samuel might be too small for their style.

[PackerJoe]

I go back and forth on this.   In the first rd. I am tossed between a CB, S, OL, WR.  I wasn't happy with our scrub backups, nickel and starting CB's (King, Greene, Sullivan, Vernon, etc.)  There are three or four very good safeties coming out worthy of rd 1-2 selection.  We could make multiple Syracuse DB picks (Moehring, TCU Cisco, Syracuse.  Ford, Pitt, Holland, Oregon,  etc.). I like some CBs in rds 2-4 (Bynum, Cal, Molden, Wash,  Melifonwue, Syracuse, one or two others.   All of these guys are excellent coverage folks, great anticipation, very good tacklers, quick and they all call from good programs and faced stiff competition.  Those safeties are all aggressive and have linebacker mentalities!!!  I know we have Amos and Savage, but if one of them go down to injury they could easily step up.  Hence, they would be an upgrade over the previously mentioned  scrubs.  Since we play alot of nickel, technically they would be starters!  Kings performance and injury history is long been discussed.  We can get a good starting corner in rds 2-3.  Let's not repeat our past sins by drafting numerous CBS and they never pan out.   Give me a Tim Lewis, Craig Newsome, etc.

If, we can get an aggressive mauler on the OL, I would be interested in late in the 1st rd or 2nd rd.  We might have to trade one or two comp picks to move up higher in Rd. 2.  If Jenkins from Ok State drops into rd. 2 we should entertain moving up.

On defense, I would add a LB maybe in rds. 4-5.  We are not going to see Penn State's LB, maybe Surratt from NC and not  Bolden from Missiouri. I do like Cox from LSU and Snowden from Virginia. Cox has been rising, Snowden likely a 4-5 pick.

I would entertain a DT in rds 3-5 (Goldwin, Louisville, Johnson, Indiana, Slaton, Florida, MacNeill, NC State, Tryon,  Washington, etc.)

I think the M. Adams experiment is over.   We'll probably cut one or two others here off the current roster.   So, one or two picks here wouldn't be a bad thing.  Good news, we would upgrade our current roster of DT's with one or two of these folks.

 My last area is wr.  There are some good WR's coming out , Marshall, etc. Likely 1st rd'ers.  I do like a couple of WR's who will likely be available in Rds. 3-4. They are your typical slot receivers (Brown, UNC, Eskridge Western Michigan, Grimes) Bigger receiver, Stewart, Colorado State).  We have big receivers now, problem is they don't know how to run routes and don't know what to do when the QB is in trouble.    The smaller receivers have excellent hands, play slot and run excellent routes.  Now if we can sign someone like Kenny Galladay, forget all of the above wr comments!!!!

Wouldn't mind adding a punter! 

It's still kind of early and we have to see what salary cuts occur. RB may become a position of concern. What we think is a concern now may get addressed in a pickup or two during salary cuts.  We've been harping about WR, LB for a few years now we'll see what happens.
 

[dannobanano]

Ricky, I would agree with you in most cases, but hear my out about Love. Think about this for a second, what conference did he play in, what significant accomplishments did he have, did he make his teammates look better (3-8 his senior year), how did he perform against big time teams with NFL defenses LSU, lost, Michigan State, Lost, BYU 1-2 Boise State 0-3, Air Force 1-2, etc.  Not exactly a SEC schedule.
I'm not sure what the brass saw in him.

I have stated on these boards that there would be good QB's coming out in 2021, not named Trevor Lawrence.  The guy I really like is Kyle Trask from Florida. He had a great season against stiff, professional football defensive like teams.  He almost defeated Alabama in the SEC title game to make the final four.   Whoever gets Trask is going to get a hell of a QB.     

We'll see what the salary cap casualties bring and it might change my mind about some things, I doubt it on this one.

His senior year at Utah St. found him with a new HC and new offensive system to learn. Then add on that he lost nearly all his playmakers on offense from the previous year and it's not hard to understand why he regressed.
Is it cause for concern? Yes.
Is it a reason to dump him now? No.

Here's Love's stats from 2018, for reference.
Passing:
attempts 417
conmpletions 267
completion % 64
yards 3567
per game 274.4
TD's 32
INT's 6
Passer rating 158.32

Rushing:
attempts 43
yards 63
TD's 7

So, in 2018, Love personally accounted for 39 TD's.
Not bad!

[RT]

Love is not going anywhere, the Packers didn't invest in his upside to bail after one season. Add in that a trade would cause almost 5M in dead money in a year the Packers are scratching for every dime they can to get back to even. Any talk of a Love trade now is just silly talk.

[claymaker]

Yeah Horn will be gone in the top 20ish picks unless something weird happens. With Mukamua there are questions if he can play cb at the next level so his workouts will be important. I like Melifonwu and Williams. There are a few guys I like better though like Greg Newsome(no relation to Craig), Ambry Thomas, Eric  Stokes
I know they interviewed him but I think Samuel might be too small for their style.

They drafted Alexander, so I don't think it's much of a factor. I'm not sure I'd spend a 1st round pick on him at this point, but I don't think it'd be an absurd reach if they did. Ambry Thomas is a sleeper to me, so it will be interesting to see how teams value him. Paulson Abedo from Stanford is another CB who sat out the 2020 season who could prove to be a steal.

[dannobanano]

Maybe consider a mid-level free agent signing for a boundary CB and then D&D a CB for a year or two down the road.

A couple to consider:

Chidobe Awuzie:
He had a terrible year in 2020 on a terrible Dallas team. But he was very respectable in his other years with Dallas. Awuzie’s PFF coverage grades in non-2020 seasons are quite solid at 78.9, 66.1, and 70.5, so perhaps 2020 is just an fluke. He's only 26 years old, so maybe a change of scenery for the 6-0/202# CB helps him find his swag again.

Quinton Dunbar:
He was part of a very poor SEA secondary in 2020, but he was also hampered by nagging injuries that limited him, and finally put him on IR. Prior to 2020 he was on the path to being in the upper tier of boundary CB's. He has the size (6-2/197) that GB likes. But his age works against him a little since he's 29, so he'd be more of a stop gap for a couple years while a draft pick develops.

[bmaafi]

Yeah Horn will be gone in the top 20ish picks unless something weird happens. With Mukamua there are questions if he can play cb at the next level so his workouts will be important. I like Melifonwu and Williams. There are a few guys I like better though like Greg Newsome(no relation to Craig), Ambry Thomas, Eric  Stokes
I know they interviewed him but I think Samuel might be too small for their style.

They drafted Alexander, so I don't think it's much of a factor. I'm not sure I'd spend a 1st round pick on him at this point, but I don't think it'd be an absurd reach if they did. Ambry Thomas is a sleeper to me, so it will be interesting to see how teams value him. Paulson Abedo from Stanford is another CB who sat out the 2020 season who could prove to be a steal.

Jaire is a good 10 lbs heavier and always played a physical game. I'm interested to see what he comes in at and if he puts on good weight. Also I need to watch more film on him.

[OneTwoSixFive]

Maybe consider a mid-level free agent signing for a boundary CB and then D&D a CB for a year or two down the road.

A couple to consider:

Chidobe Awuzie:
He had a terrible year in 2020 on a terrible Dallas team. But he was very respectable in his other years with Dallas. Awuzie’s PFF coverage grades in non-2020 seasons are quite solid at 78.9, 66.1, and 70.5, so perhaps 2020 is just an fluke. He's only 26 years old, so maybe a change of scenery for the 6-0/202# CB helps him find his swag again.

Quinton Dunbar:
He was part of a very poor SEA secondary in 2020, but he was also hampered by nagging injuries that limited him, and finally put him on IR. Prior to 2020 he was on the path to being in the upper tier of boundary CB's. He has the size (6-2/197) that GB likes. But his age works against him a little since he's 29, so he'd be more of a stop gap for a couple years while a draft pick develops.

Andy Herman (Cheeseheadtv) rather liked Asante Samuel and Greg  Newsome, of the 20 or so prospects he has looked at so far (both will probably go in round 2).